Model Output Discussion

[Duane S.]

looks like a northerly following on, without any milder air to get through. All in all fantastic run, shows the massive effects small changes have even as early as 24 hours out though.

Personally I think a Northerly is a natural progression following on from the Easterly in this setup. I said earlier to expect upgrades and this is one of what I expect to be many more (although there will of course be poor ones in amongst them which goes without saying)

[LomondSnowstorm]

12Z looking much better for those of us in eastern Scotland, with some heavy precipitation around. I hope this comes off, as the easterly would be more potent in the majority of areas than the 6Z.

[mountain shadow]

The milder air is even filtered out as the easterly goes northerly.

http://209.197.11.105/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091211/12/171/h850t850eu.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf38172fcf68177f1ead1c34cf681749&dopsig=28da601ad5e939d17ad9f0b935cefcd2

This could be the best run starting within a reliable timeframe in the history of the Internet.

[Nick F]

Remember, still a long-way off next Thursday/Friday - so the cold may be downgraded like Monday's cold in the south. Hopefully the second cold wave will hold up and be colder than the first earlier in the week, we need to hope that we get a sufficient window for the easterly late in the week before the low drops down from the north. But potential for a third cold wave via a northerly?!

[Southender]

The rollercoaster ride continues

Definite upgrade on the 12z

Odds on the 18z leaving us

[mountain shadow]

Europe gone blue at t+240

http://209.197.11.95/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091211/12/240/h850t850eu.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf381793&dopsig=3e9bf8c4f78d949fe7c778c3ebd00754

[Neilsouth]

As the east/north east has been downgraded early in the week , why are we getting so excited over later in the week?. There is every chance that will get downgraded aswell . Not going to get excited over the models till atleast monday now

[Iceberg]

It stays cold with snow showers all the way upto Christmas week. More than you could hope for tbh and I would take half that, -13's in the south and a very nicely shaped Iceland high, superb direction of LP systems.

I wouldn't expect ECM and METO to follow that(athough it would be nice), so if they don't it's not a downgrade, if they move towards it an inch I would be happy.

[kold weather]

Well for a good chunk of the country the mild sector looks like being a very big problem, Scotland would get dumped on but south of there as the LP comes through the set-up would probably be sleety at best thanks to that very developed warm sector.

After that though it does look very good, Thursday night would probably become very snowy but don't expect the GFS to have a clue about the precip just yet!

As I said, the 12z GFS is very good but that warm sector would be an utter killer come midweek for anywhere south of Newcastle probably till Thursday night...would be utterly bitter by Thursday it has to be said!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

As the east/north east has been downgraded early in the week , why are we getting so excited over later in the week?. There is every chance that will get downgraded aswell . Not going to get excited over the models till atleast monday now

To be fair though, the GFS picked up on the cold later next week as long ago as last Thursday/Friday, the cold due on Monday is only a recent idea by the GFS, so all to play for in my opinion.

[glasgow-guy]

As the east/north east has been downgraded early in the week , why are we getting so excited over later in the week?. There is every chance that will get downgraded aswell . Not going to get excited over the models till atleast monday now

yeah we need to be realistic atm but its back on again dare i say a white Xmas is in store

[mountain shadow]

As the east/north east has been downgraded early in the week , why are we getting so excited over later in the week?. There is every chance that will get downgraded aswell . Not going to get excited over the models till atleast monday now

Are you for real? This is an upgrade, the colder air and snow is back for mid week for many.

The 12z finishes with a slider low for Christmas day and potential snow fest.

[MAF]

So who wants to call when FI sets in?? seems to me that going past T+144 would be very very hopecasting.

[Iceberg]

Wow, who can complain at this chart.!

Snow for the whole country almost and it's less than 6 days away.

[kold weather]

If the 12z GFS is right Friday will be a very snowy day...the model is simply not picking up the precip amount but I'm pretty sure there would be widespread snow...for the NE Thursday would be very impressive I'd have thought but any further south and your going to get just sleet/rain fromk the 12z probably from Wednesday through to Friday morning.

ps, the paralell very poor for the SE for snowfall, a slight ESE wind keeps the showers going into the NE, would be some BIG falls there though...

Edited December 11, 2009 by kold weather

[John Snow]

Well for a good chunk of the country the mild sector looks like being a very big problem, Scotland would get dumped on but south of there as the LP comes through the set-up would probably be sleety at best thanks to that very developed warm sector.

After that though it does look very good, Thursday night would probably become very snowy but don't expect the GFS to have a clue about the precip just yet!

As I said, the 12z GFS is very good but that warm sector would be an utter killer come midweek for anywhere south of Newcastle probably till Thursday night...would be utterly bitter by Thursday it has to be said!

Yeah anywhere north of and including Newcastle would get at least a foot of snow from severe blizzards Thursday thanks to the direct hit shortwave on the UK, from a purely selfish point of view I hope that it shifts south again like 6z so we get some action down here but I do feel we are heading for a possible record winter with that blocking being hard to shift till maybe March or April and reload after reload battering the UK from the north and east

[Mark Bayley]

Well for a good chunk of the country the mild sector looks like being a very big problem, Scotland would get dumped on but south of there as the LP comes through the set-up would probably be sleety at best thanks to that very developed warm sector.

After that though it does look very good, Thursday night would probably become very snowy but don't expect the GFS to have a clue about the precip just yet!

As I said, the 12z GFS is very good but that warm sector would be an utter killer come midweek for anywhere south of Newcastle probably till Thursday night...would be utterly bitter by Thursday it has to be said!

The main cold was never really expected to come till Thursday and i think many put up with that milder sector for what happens after it! As you looks quite snowy and cold Thursday onwards, but specifics will change.

A very good GFS and would produce good snow for all most everyone at some point, will see what the parallel is coming out with

Edited December 11, 2009 by mark bayley

[Thunder_snows]

12z is a big upgrade from recent model runs, but that is a week away and in weather terms an absolute century although the gfs picked up on this a week ago my best bet is that the real pool of cold air and how far it shifts from being rite over uk and giving us a freeze to jus clipping us and situating over europe will proberly chop and change over the nxt few days until the models agree on where whcih country gets the real cold and who ends up with just a damp squid of nothingness

[benb]

Thurs/Fri has always been progged as the most likely period for a widespread snow event. This really has not changed over the last 4/5 days. The warm sector has also been highlighted as an issue through this period. If it turns out anything like is predicted this afternoon, I'll be very happy.

Specifics of precipitation amount and type can be dealt with nearer the time, but we're all in with a very good chance of seeing the white stuff over the next 7 days.

[Neilsouth]

MetO 12z on board with an easterly of some sorts!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=96&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=120&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=144&carte=1021

Edited December 11, 2009 by neilsouth

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Again we must stress that this is 1 rn from 1 model and it might not well be right.I agree with KW,some places will

see blizzards next FRi in that flow,those uppers and a warm sea.

I thought gfs would downgrade but it has UPGRADED this significantly.

Will ukmo show the secondary retrogression as gfs?

I blinkin hope so!

[karyo]

The 12z UKMO is following the GFS!

120 hours http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=120&carte=1021

144 hours http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=144&carte=1021

Karyo

[Stu_London]

Not quite sure why there is so much excitement here.

The 12z sees a bit of a downgrade in the reliable timeframe. I don't think a lot of snow would come from this in the next 5 days. FI looks tasty but lets remember it is FI.

[Geordiesnow]

Only problem is the meto update today does not reflect that gfs run.

My head tells me ukmo and ecm will not show those bitter Easterlies but maybe this is a 'flip' in the right direction.

True but i assume the Met Office update reflects what the 00Z UKMO showing, not what the 12Z might show?

I don't expect the UKMO to look as good as the 12Z GFS but hopefully it will show something similar.

[Iceberg]

MetO 12z on board with an easterly of some sorts!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=96&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=120&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=144&carte=1021

Yep Joins on the Wed/Thus snow fest, but keeps the low further south, keeping even the south in colder air.

Just the ECM to go then. !