Model Output Discussion

[Frosty.]

Has it really become that bad that we are going now to concentrate on the Northerly that may occur?

I said that it probably will take until this afternoon/tomorrow morning model runs on what may happen and that probably has not changed. I just hope the 06Z is not a trend of what might happen regarding the easterly.

I don't think the Easterly will amount to much after the 6z and the meto update which sounds sleety to me at best although maybe by midweek it could turn to wet snow. The N'ly looks better in my view but theres no guarantee it will even occur yet.

[londonsnow]

suggestion. why don't we all move to finland, then we wouldn't have to heave through all this speculative stress that involves snow. having said that, i think this spell will deliver, initially to southern and eastern areas, what i'm not convinced by is the secondary evolution from the north. don't you sometimes wish the models only went out to 48 hrs! then it would be so much more peaceful

[grab my graupel]

The 12z rolling out soon, so just a reminder about the various threads that

are available.

The Cold spell discussion thread

The Ramping thread

The Whining thread

The My Model summary thread.

If you would like to chat about the Meto/Media forecasts, there is

a designated area for this.

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/12-weather-in-the-media-on-the-internet/

So that it's a nicer place for everyone, let's try to keep this thread as

on topic as possible, please

All the latest Model output is available on Netweather

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home;sess=

Brian

[doublebarrel]

Well its gone from a `BEASTERLY ` to a Northerly to sleety and cold ! what a way to spend the last couple of days glued to the forum for what? Nothing !! lets see what happens now in this next set of charts, hopefully i can start telling people its gonna snow here next week. and thanks those of you that keep it simple and not too many technical terms !!

[Lewis]

At the moment the 12z is going the same way as the 06z with the colder air maybe even a little further E and S on this one.

[Snow Queen one]

Well at T+42 it seems the cold temps are delayed a bit i think. The SE of the high seems further east now just a bit though. Bit of a downgrade for the UK but still some cold into the SE.

Edited December 11, 2009 by Snow Queen one

[MKN]

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn661.png charts on nw appear to have crashed

[Lewis]

For those that are having problems viewing the latest GFS charts and models, i have just gotten off the phone with Paul, and the servers experiencing problems.

Most probs Will be down to a high demand, as it's very busy!

[liltbrockie]

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn661.png charts on nw appear to have crashed

Yep... Servers cant take the load ... abort to http://www.wetterzentrale.de/

[MKN]

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn781.png 78 hours in so far

Looks like things are all alot further west on this run

Edited December 11, 2009 by SnowTornado

[DAVID SNOW]

Well at T+42 it seems the cold temps are delayed a bit i think. The SE of the high seems further east now just a bit though. Bit of a downgrade for the UK but still some cold into the SE.

A good run thus far.

Better ridging into greenland

[Lewis]

Not liking this run at all, i'm afraid it's doing that horrible thing to us in reliable time frame

Marginal for everywhere! Even on tuesday

[Alex95]

As others are noticing everything is slightly further west at about +84 on this run, and the short wave is in a significantly better position so far. A decent upgrade on this run is likely IMO.

[Thunder_snows]

Yep... Servers cant take the load ... abort to http://www.wetterzentrale.de/

hahahah because people like us and many other sit all day watching and waiting for the nxt model runs to come out XD

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Two comments, one after the other - one optimistic, one pessimistic. For what little my novice's experience is worth, the high centre seemed parked for the next couple of days.

EDIT - my comment refers to posts numbers 263 and 264.

Edited December 11, 2009 by chrisbell0033944

[Snow Queen one]

I think in the long run it is good again we should be happy with it.

[DEYS(Kent)]

Two comments, one after the other - one optimistic, one pessimistic. For whjat little my novice's experience is worth, the high centre seemed parked for the next couple of days.

I have a sneaky feeling that a Scandi HP may sneak up on us...All the ingredients are there, frigid cold, eventual snow cover and a jet pummelling southern Europe. One to watch, methinks.

[londonsnow]

looks like the "warm-up" shot of cold clips kent and heads in the direction of nick sussex and our other friends across the manche on the 12z.

[MKN]

850s alot higher on this run and with the low pressure over scandy nt as deep, it will take longer to get back into the colder air if we do at all that is....

[John Snow]

Don't understand all the doom and gloom here, looks like a big upgrade for the shortwave and that is the important thing for next week, the early week stuff is boring fluff and always was, the shortwave was always the precursor to the massive blizzards and the shortwave is looking great here

[Thundery wintry showers]

The easterly for early next week is downgraded, resembling what the UKMO showed this morning though still a bit more pronounced than the ECM. It may still not be the last word, but I think expecting significant snowfalls from the Monday/Tuesday easterly was always stretching it. But I'm very interested in the positioning of this shortwave. Much further west on this run, which may well help to prolong the easterly flow on its northern flank.

[MKN]

12z

same time 06z

Quick comparison. Fairly big changes quite soon, nothing is far from certain past 48hours max imo.

[cooling climate]

This looks like being a much colder run than the 06z with a much better easterly flow.

Better ridging north and the low further west in the north sea. Also more of a conection

with the ridge north and the Scandinavian high.

[Duncan McAlister]

Looking good for an upgrade, main thrust of cold still looks to be around Wednesday. Nothing set in stone just yet

[Geordiesnow]

I think this run will be better than the 06Z but it probably would do what the UKMO and sink the easterly pretty quick from that shortwave to the east of Greenland.

Who knows though but a better run so far in the medium term i feel.