Model Output Discussion

[Altostratus]

The ECM T+144 is a cracker!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

[The PIT]

Looks like a period of dull grey rubbish coming along. Cold by day cool by night with cloud keeping the temps up. At the moment the cold air never really gets going tending to shy away from us or just clicking the south east. Unless of course you well into FI then there's a stronger brief blast.

[Eugene]

Amazing Euros tonight :lol:

Definate upgrade tonight in the runs :lol:

[cyclonic happiness]

GFS has the low at it's +120 as well and just brings in a few showers for the south and east .

At this point in time I think we can safely say that it'll be cold, but when it comes to precipitation, it's all over the place.

I don't think we'll be able to pin that down until monday.

ECM run is amazing but I've been slagging it off for the past 2 days so am saying nothing :lol:

[Tim Bland]

FI yeah but that seems only good for Scotland?

Looks cold enough for me North of the M4 especialy with any elevation. There is more factors than just surface temps. Low Dam, Low dew points, evap cooling etc :lol:

[cooling climate]

ECM at t144 looks like a bitterly cold chart with snow showers aplenty.

I would expect longer periods of snow from a set up like that and with the

windchill and drifting powder snow well need I say more.

[January Snowstorm]

What this is beginning to prove is that the gfs parallel has shown incredible consistency and accuracy over the last week or so.

The parallel run hasn't budged all week from a bitter easterly!

[kold weather]

Impressive 12z ECM at 144hrs got to admit, the cold air filling in behind the low, the flow probably favours the NE this run, probably not a lot in the SE generally due to a slightly more ESE flow at 144hrs apart from the usual streamers that set-up in any such flow (S.Essex probably would get some decent snowfall from that mind you if a streamer set-up.) but the flow will have to go more easterly as the low continues to head eastwards and such the SE would probably get decent snowfall IF we could see a 156hrs, which we can;t sadly!

[D KARLSON]

One things for sure enjoy every minute of this projected cold spell because the last time we had anything seriously cold was 95 -96.

Anyway its fascinating and a sheer treat to watch the charts evolve whats more its free and i feel south east is favoured come the weekend as the cold air from europe will begin to push in, by then say places like Kent as other places may have the precipitation but perhaps not cold enough or marginal;

Interesting UK meto have downgraded to sleet with snow on hills in eastern areas but this is conjecture as we will never know really until 24 hours before ,perhaps something of a downgrade in terms of temps but maybe another bite at the cherry by next sunday with another cold shot from the continent

[MR EXTREMES]

i noticed that there was talk of a neg nao,

is the ao related to the nao?

i also seem to remember the ao charts being posted yesterday i think,

and someone said its off the charts,

maybe im barking up the wrong tree.

hard to keep up in here lol downgrades upgrades shortwaves ao,s naos lol.

charts are falling into place infact like predicted a few days ago when they where all in agreement.

its looking good and in the realiable timeframe smile snow queen if anything your be lucky and get something white,

most intresting thing of all is models are trying hard to hold on to this cold through christmas infact adding a little more into the mix.:lol:

Edited December 11, 2009 by badboy657

[J10]

It is fair to say that the ECM is an upgrade from last night.

Very interesting synoptic pattern for mid week to say the least. IF these patterns are remotely right, somewhere is going to get a pasting.

The key word though is IF.

[Duane S.]

Hands up who likes the ECM? If the answer is 'no' I suggest you look for a new hobby! :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

So, with the ECMWF out, we again have strong model agreement tonight but they have toned up the second easterly somewhat. All of the operational outputs of the three main models would support widespread, increasingly wintry, showers on the 17th, and a widespread snow cover for eastern Britain by the morning of the 18th.

If next week comes off as projected then it will be the UKMO, and the GFS parallel, that will deserve the most praise, rather than the GFS operational which has wobbled a fair number of times (even when you compare Xz runs with the Xz from the day before).

However I will only be confident of a cold snowy easterly coming off if the ensembles strongly support it. The vast scatter on this morning's ensembles showed how uncertain things were.

[SMU]

Impressive 12z ECM at 144hrs got to admit, the cold air filling in behind the low, the flow probably favours the NE this run, probably not a lot in the SE generally due to a slightly more ESE flow at 144hrs apart from the usual streamers that set-up in any such flow (S.Essex probably would get some decent snowfall from that mind you if a streamer set-up.) but the flow will have to go more easterly as the low continues to head eastwards and such the SE would probably get decent snowfall IF we could see a 156hrs, which we can;t sadly!

Indeed- but TBH we wont know the angle of the COLD air behind it for another day- for the whole country ENE is best-

168 Chart- BRILLIANT- country will be swathed in -12c Air ,m heavy snow clearing the south east & then a severe frost before the reload starts-

this is when frontal snow from the north is alomost guarenteed due tothe surface temps-

ECM 192 will be a peach there is no way of escaping a reload from the 168-

WHEN THE ICELANDIC SITE UPDATES CAN SOMEONE POST THE 156 HR IMAGE

S

Edited December 11, 2009 by Steve Murr

[Snowyowl9]

INCREDIBLE!!!!!

I criticised the ECM in the past few days, i'm still not sure whether it can be trusted right now but it's funny because the GFS has gone more towards what the ECM was saying yesterday and the ECM today has gone towards what the GFS was saying yesterday :lol: :lol:

I've got absolutely no idea whats going to happen.

ECM has been the least consistant lately and UKMO follows it,GFS has been totally consistant with the high going further north,different variations of cold spell,looks as yesterdays ECM 12z for EG. :lol:

You could not wish for better charts than these tonight outstanding. :lol:

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

[Nick L]

Whiners thread?

It's posts like the one you quoted which confuse newer members and amateurs (like myself). Making comments that go completely against the general trend of discussion and not even bothering to quote a chart to support it. This certainly doesn't look like dull grey rubbish to me:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Could bring a decent dump of snow for favoured locations.

[Harsh Climate]

This would almost guarantee snow for a large portion of eastern scotland/eangland. With it turning progressivly colder. shame the easterly will be squeezed away...

[grab my graupel]

Will be opening a new Model thread in a few minutes

Please bear with me :lol:

[kold weather]

Indeed- but TBH we wont know the angle of the COLD air behind it for another day- for the whole country ENE is best-

http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?11-0

168 Chart- BRILLIANT- country will be swathed in -12c Air ,m heavy snow clearing the south east & then a severe frost before the reload starts-

this is when frontal snow from the north is alomost guarenteed due tothe surface temps-

ECM 192 will be a peach there is no way of escaping a reload from the 168-

S

Yep the 168hrs is a peach in terms of synoptics, wish we could see between 144-168hrs, I suspect 156hrs would be an utter stunner for us here Steve!

Also as for the frontal snow, I said earlier on that my outside punt would be a Boxing day 62 type snowfall where the front runs out of push as the southerly jet continues in, but we shall see!

[J10]

ECM has been the least consistant lately and UKMO follows it,GFS has been totally consistant with the high going further north,different variations of cold spell,looks as yesterdays ECM 12z for EG. :lol:

You could not wish for better charts than these tonight outstanding. :lol:

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

The 850 temps associated with that are range from -4 to -6c according to Meteociel at T+120 and drop rapidly to -6c to -10c for the T+144 version.

[johnholmes]

i noticed that there was talk of a neg nao,

is the ao related to the nao?

i also seem to remember the ao charts being posted yesterday i think,

and someone said its off the charts,

maybe im barking up the wrong tree.

read the Guides mate

read posts by GP and others

read my lrf

it is all explained within those

[cyclonic happiness]

ECM has been the least consistant lately and UKMO follows it,GFS has been totally consistant with the high going further north,different variations of cold spell,looks as yesterdays ECM 12z for EG. :lol:

You could not wish for better charts than these tonight outstanding. :lol:

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1441.gif

MODS!!!!!! how has my post got mixed in with Andy's?

INCREDIBLE!!!!!

I criticised the ECM in the past few days, i'm still not sure whether it can be trusted right now but it's funny because the GFS has gone more towards what the ECM was saying yesterday and the ECM today has gone towards what the GFS was saying yesterday :lol: :lol:

I've got absolutely no idea whats going to happen.

sorry i'm getting confused in my old age......i was on the phone and wasn't reading it properly, feel free to delete my last 2 posts :lol: sorry :lol:

Edited December 11, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[kold weather]

Bitter air coming in from the eat at 144hrs from the ECM, certainly cold enough for snow, -10C coming into East Anglia:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-144.GIF?11-0

[bluearmy]

look through the GEM 12z with the uppers as the shortwave drifts sw and you'll see that its possible for the se to retain colder uppers depending where the inflection point is. this looks very messy if it evolves as the 12z's show.

[NorthantsSnow]

ECM 12z yesterday T144:

http://212.100.247.145/ecmimages/20091210/12/ecm500.144.png

ECM 12z today T120:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

A monumental upgrade. Not been a great 36 hours for this model to put it mildly, but at least things are now coming together nicely as far as the easterly is concerned.