Model Output Discussion

[Frosty.]

A 'trend' for anything at T200+ means absolutely zilch though.

Nice to be in a position where the immediate future is cold, and FI can come up with whatever it wants! 12z Ensembles show plenty of FI spread.

Good runs tonight. Liking the immediate future! As for the ECM - wow! But even GFS is fine.

It's amazing how different the ECM & UKMO 12z are at such a short range, some problems to resolve by tomorrow I would have thought, the ecm seems very bullish about the E'ly and I hope it happens but even if we get a hybrid of the ecm and ukmo we should not despair as a cold wintry plunge from the north could follow by this time next week.

Edited December 12, 2009 by Frosty039

[MR EXTREMES]

Rubbish 3.4C at this time of night isn't even cold considering the clear skies.

The main reason why I'm not convinced is that the cold proper stays always in FI and is constantly being moved back. This summer when we were looking for a dry spell it stayed in FI.

in fairness you did not say night time temps in your oringinal post,

but anyway im not here to argue im happy with the overall trends and im not intrested in FI.

FI setups come and go overall in the realiable timeframe is where you can build a bigger picture and to me the picture is not a downgrade.

Differences between ECM and GFS/UKMO are apparent by T96hrs. when looking at modelling of the Low nr.Denmark.

ECM http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

GFS http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png

UKMO http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

Until this is agreed then the exact effect of the Easterly is uncertain.

We can see there will be one but what sort?

The overall pattern though is for getting colder from midweek with at least snow flurries/showers later in the week for some.

is it me or does that ukmo chart look the odd one out?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

There's a lot of chopping and changing between posters on which Model gives the best result for cold. I think we ar eprobably going to end up at the GFS Parallel run, as a poster earlier put it, 'Better than my brother but not as good as ECM' I think whatever happens, the MO is actually underplaying the results.

I have no problem with people changing the model they look at, but it was only 3 days ago the ECM was a pile of poo, now it's the best thing since sliced bread. But to get there, it's performed an astonishing Volte-Face the only model I've been following (as opposed to looking at) is the GFS Parallel, it's been the most consistent of the lot. (Feels 'Commentators Curse' materialising over left shoulder)

[KTtom]

FAX charts will reveal what the pro's think but the bbc forecaster just said,and i quote,'a bit colder thur/fri'.

That comment has ukmo written all over it,it does not have ecm written all over it.

Fair enough, but wasn't it Darren Bent who said 'turning milder again next week' the day the UKMO model had a wobble and was showing SW winds which was against all other models??

[The PIT]

in fairness you did not say night time temps in your oringinal post,

but anyway im not here to argue im happy with the overall trends and im not intrested in FI.

FI setups come and go overall in the realiable timeframe is where you can build a bigger picture and to me the picture is not a downgrade.

is it me or does that ukmo chart look the odd one out?

Okay doke I didn't say right now. Bit overall today temperatures are about average for the time of year. But still a big drop from a few days ago. Anyway sorry for the confusion.

[Geordiesnow]

ECM would bring seriou disruptive snowfall,some places would be literally buried in the stuff.

UKMO would introduce some dandruff in the SE and very little elsewhere.I have to say im sure ukmo will

have this nailed.

We have been here before in Feb,at that range ukmo will be correct,yes it will be cold but it will be dry as

a bone for the vast majority.

FAX charts will reveal what the pro's think but the bbc forecaster just said,and i quote,'a bit colder thur/fri'.

That comment has ukmo written all over it,it does not have ecm written all over it.

BBC follows the UKMO output for it forecasts hence why Darren Bett said a few days ago it will turn milder with SW'lies when the UKMO produced that one off run on it's 144 hour chart. I think they use the ECM output for it's long range forecasts for the website but i don't think they have ever used the ECM output for the TV forecasts. And they certainly do not use the GFS!

18Z is an important run too see which model GFS sides with the closest but it won't be a deciding factor whatever it shows. Tomorrow morning runs will be however and i am sort of dreading them in truthness unless the 18Z shows something similar to the ECM then i might be less nervous.

[Duane S.]

How often do we see the first 9 days of the GFES ensembles with not one member at any point going above the mean line! Quite extraordinary.

[Optimus Prime]

How often do we see the first 9 days of the GFES ensembles with not one member at any point going above the mean line! Quite extraordinary.

Which makes it all the more possible we'll end up with mild SWs

[MR EXTREMES]

Fair enough, but wasn't it Darren Bent who said 'turning milder again next week' the day the UKMO model had a wobble and was showing SW winds which was against all other models??

darren bett was on the 24 hour bbc news channel lastnight at 2.26am hes said later in the week it was looking like a cold easterly was going to setin.

[Ross B]

The title of this topic is MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION, not TV forecast Discussion!

[Sawel]

Great to see the METO 72 hour fax chart going with the ECM output. That's a good start. Hopefully the GFS 18z will look a little different later in the medium range too.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Great to see the METO 72 hour fax chart going with the ECM output. That's a good start. Hopefully the GFS 18z will look a little different later in the medium range too.

Erm,

All 3 big guns looks similar at T + 72hrs.

Its between T72-T96 that the differences emerge.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Great to see the METO 72 hour fax chart going with the ECM output. That's a good start. Hopefully the GFS 18z will look a little different later in the medium range too.

This has been the most interesting week of model watching since I joined the forum - from +240 to +168 there weren't all that many changes to the easterly, but since Wednesday we've seen the UKMO wobble, the ECM wobble twice in a day and now we have a divergence between most of the major models! We'll soon find out which way this one will go for each area (god, I feel like I've said that about 5 times already this week!)...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM best run ive seen upto 216, snowfest for most, but seems way too progressive straight from easterly to northerly, not a high pressure lull inbetween air masses

[Sawel]

Erm,

All 3 big guns looks similar at T + 72hrs.

Its between T72-T96 that the differences emerge.

But the ECM has the low centred further North than the GFS and the UKMO and this allows a better and longer lasting easterly feed.

By going with the ECM output for the fax charts, this bodes well for us, as this would increase our chances of snowfall.

The UKMO and GFS output are both poor for Scotland, but the ECM output suggest snow showers for here now and basically the whole way down the East coast of Britain. The FAX is the 72 hour ECM output that the METO have went for so that's definitely a positive thing.

[phil nw.]

in fairness you did not say night time temps in your oringinal post,

but anyway im not here to argue im happy with the overall trends and im not intrested in FI.

FI setups come and go overall in the realiable timeframe is where you can build a bigger picture and to me the picture is not a downgrade.

is it me or does that ukmo chart look the odd one out?

Well they are all different really Badboy.

.The UKMO appears to have the weakest flow early on at T72hrs. with less subsequent developing of the low and therefore we get only a slight Easterly drift.

Look at the ECM as the low develops and drifts into the continent we get a stronger flow on it`s northern flank by T120hrs. which would bring in much beefier snowfall.GFS is somewhere in between.

This is why it`s necessary to get agreement on this feature before we can decide on the type of Easterly we will get Thurs/Fri and of course it`s longevity.

[Sawel]

This has been the most interesting week of model watching since I joined the forum - from +240 to +168 there weren't all that many changes to the easterly, but since Wednesday we've seen the UKMO wobble, the ECM wobble twice in a day and now we have a divergence between most of the major models! We'll soon find out which way this one will go for each area (god, I feel like I've said that about 5 times already this week!)...

Yes there has been lots of high points and low points with the model output this last week... soem fascinating stuff for sure.

The 72 hr FAX chart is welcome news for us up here as it is basically the 72 hour ECM output.

[ChartViewer]

i can feel the love lol.bloody hell chaps let's calm down a wee bit.

all to play for yet.

The Pit...One of the most respected posters on Netweather....Why dont you call the Models like

you used to?

Surely at T120 we can see one of the coldest periods in the last 15 Years and I think this is

fantastic viewing. I know Im obsessed with a true GH...But it really is our Holy grail and

to see it at 1060mb at T144 , well Im confident the Models will evolve to a long term

cold pattern. They are already

[MR EXTREMES]

.

maybe so but lets leave this for another topic.

hey people the love is in the room and i tell you why,

all week we have been blessed with some sexy charts and there still coming.

if every model for the last 2 to 3 day suggested downgrades then id be saying oh well maybe next time,

but this is not happening ecm lovely.

and this morning and lastnight where lovely aswell.

so cold spell over nope just starting might not be what some are expecting but could suprise us all.:)

The Pit...One of the most respected posters on Netweather....Why dont you call the Models like

you used to?

Surely at T120 we can see one of the coldest periods in the last 15 Years and I think this is

fantastic viewing. I know Im obsessed with a true GH...But it really is our Holy grail and

to see it at 1060mb at T144 , well Im confident the Models will evolve to a long term

cold pattern. They are already

i agree as long as it dont drift in canadian arctic like predicted but then again i think MR GP maybe right but thats far beyond my knowledge.

[yamkin]

Moscow's Model 12Z 500hpa

Moscow's Model 12Z 850hpa :wub:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Moscow's Model 12Z 500hpa

Moscow's Model 12Z 850hpa

At least the model that 2 days ago showed the movement of the north pole to eastern England is on board with a more potent easterly!

Having lurked in the shadows for a while I've decided to post my first comments, hopefully no one will slate me for my limited knowledge. Whilst I think the overall set up looks very promising for cold, the fact that models don't handle blocked patterns at all well means very little seems guaranteed after

T+72.

One theme does appear to run right through all forecasted cold set ups however and that is the models constantly keep delaying the coldest of the conditions, whilst at the same time lessening both the intensity and longevity of the spell. Come the end of next week of course my theory may have been proven completely wrong, but I suspect what now looks like a cold Wednesday and Thurday will become a cold Friday and Saturday tomorrow and probably a cold Saturday and Sunday by the time we get to Mondays overnight runs.

It almost feels like a donkey and carrot situation, but in this instance the donkey eventually catches up with the carrot only to find it not half as tasty as it originally looked.

Worzel - get some cider in side her!!

Welcome to the forum, Worzel. I think that is a fair comment but this Wednesday we were still talking about the main cold being on Wednesday, so perhaps the donkey is catching a bit faster than it appears to be! I do worry that it looks a bit less potent, but if the ECM was to turn out to be correct I think we'd all have taken that when these runs first came onto the scene.

LS

[David-kig]

loving the ecm very nice chart hoping the gfs will follow suit

[ScottSnow]

Will the 18z verify with the ECMWF or will it continue to downgrade the easterly for the end of the week.

Interesting model watching tonight.

[yamkin]

COAMPS 12Z 500hpa

COAMPS 12Z 850hpa :winky:

[Yeti]

GEM 120 is disappointing for the UK:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif

The high ridges too far E and the troughing is mainly directed into central and eastern europe.

Still, 18z on its way...