Model Output General Discussion

[nick sussex]

how would the midlands fair in a situation like this nick?

Well in terms of the weekend only much depends on what the models do with the milder sectors, it could be one of these is replaced with a straightforward occlusion. The heaviest precip is likely to be near the triple point, again though as we see finer detail is just impossible this far out. For your region i'm sure there will be some snow but whether its a snow then sleet and rain then back to snow situation hard to say. It might just be all snow, unfortunately although its frustrating theres no way of calling this correctly until 24hrs out. Sorry i can't give you a definitive answer here.

[nick sussex]

lamppost watching then . many thanks

Do you know what Azores i'd say that's the best way forward! It's all very complicated which in the UK is always the way with any colder weather!

At least todays models continue the trend of yesterday with them attempting to extend the cold spell, lets hope this continues for the rest of the day.

[mushymanrob]

personally i cant see now where the excitement is coming from. the runs look pretty normal for december, cold, damp, dull... ok theres a 2 day (thurs fri) colder blip but after that its just rather unpleasant weather. there might well be potential for colder synoptics to evolve but you could argue that milder synoptics could just as easily evolve...

THE bbc always underplay cold weather,always over estimating temps,mentioning wintry showers sleety rain,anything but snow,even when its falling ouside

Totally ridiculous,i mean its Wednesday,and Carol Kikwood couldn't even mention what it was going to doThursday evening,is that because she would have to mention falling and lying snow i wonder.

Oh how i miss the old forecasters like Bill Giles,Ian MCaskill,and of course Mike Fish

Never was keen on Francis Wilson,even when snow was chucking it down he never seemed to show any enthusiam

sorry but i dont agree... the bbc imho OVERSTATE any potential bad weather, they always cover their backs now by stating the worst case scenarios. maybe they arnt talking about snow because theres not going to be much!

as for the presenters, i rate thomaz schaffernacker (spelling?) as good as any veteran forecaster, he is clear, enthusiastic, and clearly knows what hes on about!

Edited December 16, 2009 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

We have seen a huge upgrade in the longevity of the very cold spell on the last 2 gfs runs with the jet energy being much further south and the cold block more robust, if anything, it's the ecm which looks to be backing away slightly by the end of the run with the jet further north although it still looks cold even by T+240.

[The watcher]

The weather lady (sorry forgot her name) on the West country local news, just came on and smugly

said " At least we will be getting off lightly compared to the East of the country". And showed

2c for Friday and 4c for Saturday.

Does this mean that it's warming up? I would so love for us to get frontal snow after Xmas,

then we'll get tons of it...hopefully

Hey Ripe.

Not really no, the lower temps Friday are because of that blast from the East, when the Northerly starts to push down the uppers return to-4/-5c and then plummet again, there is also milder sectors involved around the frontal system (which has become quite complicated), so wether you get snow/sleet is all going to depend on its final location and will need to be forecasted 3/4 hours out. The good point is, the max uppers we see in the system are generally still on the good side of marginal -4/-5....but there will also be surface air with milder influences too, but a good swathe should see mostly snow from that I'd imagine.

Its a big possibility for a very snowy breakdown, we just need it to time right, maybe coincide with another short blast from the North as the uppers gradually increase in the time leading up to christmas because of the lack of cold pool feed from anywhere after the Northerly blast is over and the LP begins to deteriorate.

[snowingtequila]

personally i cant see now where the excitement is coming from. the runs look pretty normal for december, cold, damp, dull... ok theres a 2 day (thurs fri) colder blip but after that its just rather unpleasant weather. there might well be potential for colder synoptics to evolve but you could argue that milder synoptics could just as easily evolve...

sorry but i dont agree... the bbc imho OVERSTATE any potential bad weather, they always cover their backs now by stating the worst case scenarios. maybe they arnt talking about snow because theres not going to be much!

as for the presenters, i rate thomaz schaffernacker (spelling?) as good as any veteran forecaster, he is clear, enthusiastic, and clearly knows what hes on about!

That is not what I read from the charts at all. I see an evolving cold spell with snow for many if not for all. We have not had runs like this for a very long time

[Hammer]

personally i cant see now where the excitement is coming from. the runs look pretty normal for december, cold, damp, dull... ok theres a 2 day (thurs fri) colder blip but after that its just rather unpleasant weather. there might well be potential for colder synoptics to evolve but you could argue that milder synoptics could just as easily evolve...

sorry but i dont agree... the bbc imho OVERSTATE any potential bad weather, they always cover their backs now by stating the worst case scenarios. maybe they arnt talking about snow because theres not going to be much!

as for the presenters, i rate thomaz schaffernacker (spelling?) as good as any veteran forecaster, he is clear, enthusiastic, and clearly knows what hes on about!

Isn't that like going in to a pub and saying what's all the fun, laughter and happiness in here about. Surely weather like this, be it 1, 2 or even 7 days is what it is all about for weather fans. The models are suggesting some reasonably significant snowfall in some well poputlated areas, its pre Christmas, it's that hope it might bode well for a fantastic winter, some, if not a majority of us desire.

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Just an observation, but, do any of you guy's ever check the reality state of the models with actual weather?

There is already snow falling in Lincolnshire and East Anglia. Eumetsat time lapsed images show the air now over the south east, originated in the far north east of Greenland, well inside the Arctic Circle.

Carol Kirkwood stated 1 - 3cm today, with 5 - 10cm by tomorrow night (Thursday). Must have watched a different Carol to some

ffO.

Edited December 16, 2009 by full_frontal_occlusion

[TEITS]

Just out of curiousity but is there any way I can view the ensembles from a couple of days ago? or does anyone have them saved onto their PC?

I would like to compare to todays 0Z.

[Thundery wintry showers]

personally i cant see now where the excitement is coming from. the runs look pretty normal for december, cold, damp, dull... ok theres a 2 day (thurs fri) colder blip but after that its just rather unpleasant weather. there might well be potential for colder synoptics to evolve but you could argue that milder synoptics could just as easily evolve...

I'm afraid that perception of the model outputs reminds me of those posts you get in spring where the masses insist that a northerly must be a forebearer of dull damp weather because they don't want northerlies as they've "moved on". I see nothing bar such subjectivity to support that view of the charts- how is precipitation going to be rain or sleet when we have maxima around freezing?

I will be very surprised, for instance, if snow cover is not fairly widespread in eastern England by Friday morning. What happens afterwards is open to question but with the low filling over Britain, Arctic airmass and limited frontal activity it is unlikely to be dull- sunshine could well be quite abundant in central and northern districts. Troughs and shower activity still to be determined. Down south chances of some frontal snow events (maybe rain near the south coast at times).

[nick sussex]

The latest ecm ensembles for the Netherlands show the operational run well supported, more scatter from next Wednesday but even though there is a warming trend later, its more less cold rather than mild. Shame we can't see the synoptics for that lone ensemble member which looks to bring in the next ice age!

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

[nick sussex]

You mention the 'very cold spell'...we havent seen any cold yet! Yet alone getting any very cold! The Essembly temps are rising most days now, and we havent had any cold

that the models have predicted.

So many people on here last tuesday wednesday and thursday said 'this is nailed'. That was wrong.

I'm sorry i have to disagree here, the models in terms of the actual pattern have done very well, upper air temps are always subject to some modifications at that timeframe. In terms of the outlook you can't just use the 850's, there will be cold air embedded at the surface and if you see a slack flow or even a south easterly drift from the continent it will remain cold even if the 850's rise.

[Weather-history]

I would like to re-subscribe for the radar. The problem is I can't remember my login details and also last time a member kindly treated me to NW Extra. So I don't really know what to do?

This site has an archive. EDIT: This post is suppose to be a reply to looking at ensembles from a couple of days ago....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&archive=1

Edited December 16, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Nick L]

Just out of curiousity but is there any way I can view the ensembles from a couple of days ago? or does anyone have them saved onto their PC?

I would like to compare to todays 0Z.

Hi TEITS, there is a trick.

When you obtain the link for the image of the ensembles (right click, properties etc.) you get something like this at the end:

ens.20091216/00/t850Aberdeenshire.png

If you change the red bit, that changes the date of the run. You change the blue bit you change which run it was.

Here are the runs from yesterday for Cambridgeshire:

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091215/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091215/06/t850Cambridgeshire.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091215/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091215/18/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Hope that helps =]

Edited December 16, 2009 by nick2702

[snowblizzard]

Easterlies dragging cold air from continent seem very short lived!

Fax charts indicate NNW flow across most of UK by Sunday/Monday

What will it take to drag the severe cold air over Siberia towards the UK?

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Reurmett.gif

Edited December 16, 2009 by snowblizzard

[TEITS]

Thanks for the replies everyone.

Back to the 06Z and E Anglia/E Midlands/Lincs look like they may recieve a hammering tomorrow evening.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091216/06/36/prectypeuktopo.png

[Duncan McAlister]

Friday's chart shows cold air entrenched over the whole UK in such a way I don't think I've ever seen before at such close range. Good luck everybody

[TEITS]

South east too , nice!

Yes and No.

The snow that is likely to move into E Anglia/Lincs/E Midlands looks to be a longer spell of snow due to a front (see fax chart). The snow risk for the SE is going to be via convection i.e showers.

How are your blobs getting on by the way.

[Weather-history]

What will it take to drag the severe cold air over Siberia towards the UK?

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Reurmett.gif

Its a bit of a misnomer the Siberian blast. We rarely get an airmass directly from Siberia as that is to the east of the Urals, which is thousands of miles away.

[Frosty.]

Yes and No.

The snow that is likely to move into E Anglia/Lincs/E Midlands looks to be a longer spell of snow due to a front (see fax chart). The snow risk for the SE is going to be via convection i.e showers.

How are your blobs getting on by the way.

Maybe 4 inches tomorrow with a 50 mph Easterly wind, scope for drifting there perhaps

Friday more of the same and then it's the norths turn as winds go Arctic NNW'ly,

These charts for the next week offer a chance of the most wintry spell for more than 10 years.

Its a bit of a misnomer the Siberian blast. We rarely get an airmass directly from Siberia as that is to the east of the Urals, which is thousands of miles away.

more like minsk, the russian steps, far enough east though before we switch to the north pole by the end of the weekend.

[kold weather]

Actually TEITS thats not true, the models suggest the front wil ldrops southwards:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

There will be showers in the SE ahead of that front, the GFS confirms this idea...take a ,look at the higher reoslution GFS run to see the way the precip drops down, very slow process though it has to be said...also another trough digs into your area!

[Southender]

06z rolling and at +138 something looks different?

Edited December 16, 2009 by LeighShrimper

[TEITS]

Actually TEITS thats not true, the models suggest the front wil ldrops southwards:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

There will be showers in the SE ahead of that front, the GFS confirms this idea...take a ,look at the higher reoslution GFS run to see the way the precip drops down, very slow process though it has to be said...also another trough digs into your area!

That was my first thought KW. However the Met O are suggesting the frontal snow will move into the midlands before petering out in SW England.

To be honest it will come down to radar watching as it usually the case mate.

[Scarf-Carrot-Coal]

06z rolling and at +138 something looks different?

What looks different?

[Southender]

What looks different?

I'm a newbie so probably nothing. But something looked different in the N.Sea around +138?...

Edited December 16, 2009 by LeighShrimper