North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

Currently 1.6C at Cleadon with a 2cm covering of snow, hail and graupel. Cleadon missed most of the showers last night but picked up two very dramatic ones at 1-2am, the first had gusty winds and heavy blowing snow and the temperature fell to -0.3C during this shower (which beats the easterlies of 3 January 2008 and 2 February 2009, when it never got below freezing here). Then about twenty minutes later there was a hail shower which is borne out by 6-7mm diameter hailstones on the ground.

Temps generally rose to about 1.5C in between showers due to the warming effects of the North Sea and so the extent of accumulations was relatively limited, but still, I ultimately got about what I had forecast for the location.

[Thundery wintry showers]

This is my forecast for Tyne & Wear/Durham that I put up on Facebook. It is broadly applicable to the North East region as a whole.

Friday 18th December- Sunshine and snow flurries but the showers slowly dying out during the day. A slow thaw in the sun, but most of the snow cover should still remain by evening. Top temperature 2 or 3C.

Saturday 19th December- Sharp frost. Sunny start then clouding over. Sleety mix moving down fro...m the north in late afternoon, causing further thaw initially but then turning to heavy blowing snow in evening, with a significant top-up of the snow cover then likely. Top temperature 3C.

Sunday 20th December- Cold and sunny, a few snow flurries especially towards the Pennines, top temperature 1C.

The 21st and 22nd December will continue cold with sunshine and occasional snow showers. 23 December- staying cold.

Chances of a white Christmas hang in the balance as it will turn warmer from the south around then, all depends on whether it holds off for long enough.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Days like this make me glad I've got my Volvo. 14 tons of Swedish beauty on winter tyres means it just doesn't care about snow and ice as others in their flashy new cars and low-profile tyres slip and slide all over the place.

[Rollo]

Its been snowing quite heavily here for the past 10 minutes.

[Geordiesnow]

A light patchy covering of hail/graupel/snow here, it would seem we missed out on a few showers last night which was a little annoying but it could of been worst i suppose.

Hopefully tomorrow evening will provide some fun and games here.

[peterf]

Days like this make me glad I've got my Volvo. 14 tons of Swedish beauty on winter tyres means it just doesn't care about snow and ice as others in their flashy new cars and low-profile tyres slip and slide all over the place.

14 tons

[Osbourne One-Nil]

You're right, I was being silly.

It must be more like fifteen.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

This is my forecast for Tyne & Wear/Durham that I put up on Facebook. It is broadly applicable to the North East region as a whole.

Friday 18th December- Sunshine and snow flurries but the showers slowly dying out during the day. A slow thaw in the sun, but most of the snow cover should still remain by evening. Top temperature 2 or 3C.

Saturday 19th December- Sharp frost. Sunny start then clouding over. Sleety mix moving down fro...m the north in late afternoon, causing further thaw initially but then turning to heavy blowing snow in evening, with a significant top-up of the snow cover then likely. Top temperature 3C.

Sunday 20th December- Cold and sunny, a few snow flurries especially towards the Pennines, top temperature 1C.

The 21st and 22nd December will continue cold with sunshine and occasional snow showers. 23 December- staying cold.

Chances of a white Christmas hang in the balance as it will turn warmer from the south around then, all depends on whether it holds off for long enough.

Thanks for that. I'm guessing from that you don't hold much hope of anything significant on Monday or Tuesday?

Met Office still saying 'some more general snow on Monday'

GFS ppn charts so snow moving around close by but it's hard to tell where that'll end up.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think some places will get some significant snow on Monday and Tuesday but as it will almost certainly be mainly in the form of showers it will be hit and miss. Hard to say for sure- "occasional snow showers" taking the region as a whole is a way of covering my bases.

Btw Saturday's event should fall entirely as snow over high ground (about 150m to be certain).

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Btw Saturday's event should fall entirely as snow over high ground (about 150m to be certain).

I'm normally in Jarrow on Saturday night, but not this week. I'll be staying home in Stanley just in case.

I think by the end of Tuesday some parts on higher ground will have some impressive accumilations, already maybe 2-3 inches in Consett today which isn't melting fast. I would guess up to 8 inches for some.

Hoping to get out and get some pics over the weekend.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

This is my forecast for Tyne & Wear/Durham that I put up on Facebook. It is broadly applicable to the North East region as a whole.

Friday 18th December- Sunshine and snow flurries but the showers slowly dying out during the day. A slow thaw in the sun, but most of the snow cover should still remain by evening. Top temperature 2 or 3C.

Saturday 19th December- Sharp frost. Sunny start then clouding over. Sleety mix moving down fro...m the north in late afternoon, causing further thaw initially but then turning to heavy blowing snow in evening, with a significant top-up of the snow cover then likely. Top temperature 3C.

Sunday 20th December- Cold and sunny, a few snow flurries especially towards the Pennines, top temperature 1C.

The 21st and 22nd December will continue cold with sunshine and occasional snow showers. 23 December- staying cold.

Chances of a white Christmas hang in the balance as it will turn warmer from the south around then, all depends on whether it holds off for long enough.

When are you doing one for Cumbria?

[snow_mad_09]

Some moderate flaky snow falling at the moment for about 10 minutes in central Newcastle, temps -0.5 .

[Tucco]

Looking good for East Cumbria next few days. Cold NW flow should bring snow she's to Cumbria. What's good about this set up is the wind direction should remain more of a westerly due to location of the low. Usually once the flow goes past about 270 degrees the shrs become more focused further south across Lancs, then down to Manchester/Liverpool.

Temps look ok. Convergence zones in similar flows have produced 15cm.

Mark

[paul tall]

Maybe you just don't know what you are talking about John, and the Met Office do?

I am waiting for the other 27 inches of snow that you forecast, however the Met Office only said 2-5cm. Mmmmmmmm.

[paul tall]

John, I'll be surprised if we get more than 6cm fresh snow, as the front will clear through quickly.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

John, surely that's just cautious?

Looking good for East Cumbria next few days. Cold NW flow should bring snow she's to Cumbria. What's good about this set up is the wind direction should remain more of a westerly due to location of the low. Usually once the flow goes past about 270 degrees the shrs become more focused further south across Lancs, then down to Manchester/Liverpool.

Temps look ok. Convergence zones in similar flows have produced 15cm.

Mark

Sooper! Thank's Tucco...we'll see what happens. Edited December 18, 2009 by Osbourne One-Nil

[John Snow]

John, surely that's just cautious?

Sooper! Thank's Tucco...we'll see what happens.

That is Cumbria though

I would have thought with a NW flow that the Pennines would gobble up a lot of the snow for the East ?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I meant calling the met-office cretins. If your opinion ws based on the fact that they'd overestimated the amount of snow for your location, then I think it's a tad harsh!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

John Holmes and Steve Murr are very good, but they're not trying to issue information to 60 million people and countless organisations.

I never quite understand why the Met Office get such a hard time!

[Methuselah]

John Holmes and Steve Murr are very good, but they're not trying to issue information to 60 million people and countless organisations.

I never quite understand why the Met Office get such a hard time!

I can only assume that it's because, when the MetO predicts 'up to 20cm' of snow might fall over 'some' parts of SE England, East Anglia, Eastern England and Northeastern England; a few folks take that to mean, everywhere?? :smiliz19:

IMO, any excuse to hammer the Met! :w00t: :w00t:

[Tucco]

I'll go as far as next few days, should be the snowest you have seen since you have been at Great Asby.

In the past because of instability and cold air the shrs have made it over the pennines. But decreasing in intensity once away from the higher ground. Lee wave winds made the pennines receive blizzards.

Mark

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Do you mean biggest snowfest?

We did have 6" earlier in the year, so I'd be impressed if we matched that. I've also got a dinner party on Saturday night that I really don't want to go to!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Are you Sting by any chance?

[D KARLSON]

Re TWS I think the snow coming down the east coast of northeast england on saturday is being underplayed somewhat ,i reckon its quite likely it will start as snow and only fall as rain on the west coast of britain.

As for amounts i dont see any reason why 6cms cant fall widely on low ground and even more on hills and its timing as it approaches north yorkshire will be for the evening rush hour and its quite strange how there has been very little mention of it on the BEEB or other sites although i reckon the BEEB will firm up on that this evening.

This coming event will probably the best snow event ive seen in 15 years not only that but it will stick and stay over the weekend as for the coming week snow and somewhat less cold air will make a return ,but another cold outbreak from scandinavia seems likely after xmas so hold onto your hats !!!!! theres plenty more fun and games as these lows are now going retrograde on us and backing off to the northwest

[paul tall]

This coming event the best in 15 years? which event are we talking about, the one tomorrow?