Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ecm to me looks not so good, low seems further South, precip may not reach here now, I always guessed the trend would be south, but probably tv weather the most accurate now

[Paceyboy]

I'm still unsure of what we could petentially be in for. I'm hearing 3-6in here, then 1-2ft there!!!!!!!

Most forecasts bar BBC and Metoffice (unusual) are forecasting rain/sleet for me, but i though i was in prime position

What depths could ANYONE encounter???

Netweather is forecasting me 40-50mm of rainfall or sleet. If that's snow, how much would it be???

Yes, for a start thats a lot of rainfall! If that was to be snow then you would probably have something between 1-2foot of snow by dawn on Wednesday!

However, a word of caution, IF it is cold enough for snow, then i cant see that we would get that much precipiation here in the midlands as the colder air would keep the more intense precip further south. I would bet though, that the midlands and most of Wales would see between 3-6" depths.

[we_want_snow]

3-6in isn't nothing amazing though, I saw 6in this February. They're talking about the worst since 1979. How much did we have then???

[Bolton67]

3-6in isn't nothing amazing though, I saw 6in this February. They're talking about the worst since 1979. How much did we have then???

Lots.

Makes feb snow look like a dusting LOL

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3-6in isn't nothing amazing though, I saw 6in this February. They're talking about the worst since 1979. How much did we have then???

well i'll certainly take 6 inches! not had that much since 19th Nov 1996, ill be happy with 3 inches, FI massive upgrade on all models, but short term, I feel this snow being progged further south with every run

[we_want_snow]

I'd not be happy with 3in so im going to probably be dissapointed...

1) Worst since 1979 which made Feb 09 look like a dusting. I had 6in

2) If BBC & Metoffice are forecasting heavy snow up to 20cm, then that'd be the minimum i'd expect

I was hoping and expecting 8/1012in, 1ft

I wouldnt say no to 3inches though...

[kold weather]

I suspect stil lsouthern Midlands, esp on the western side of the region is prime spot for any snowfall, I also however suspect the front will struggle to get much further north then there and the whole set-up will end up just a touch further south...in my location it'll just be rain I suspect regardless but the M4 line seems like a decent guideline as to where I think it'll snow, though the further east you are the further north that line is.

As for amounts, even at this stage I really wouldn't like to punt because this is a very tricky set-up that is going to be prone to very late changes right upto 00hrs...someone certainly would have a shot at 9-12 inches however I'd guess...

[katiew]

Well for Leicester (LE5) BBC and Met office are forecasting Heavy Snow Tuesday night then rain and light snow on Wednesday with light snow on Thursday. Metcheck says sleet all day tuesday, sleet and snow Wednesday and Sleet all day Thursday, and Weathonline says rain except for Tuesday afternoon.

It doesn't look too promising from the forecasts above. What does anyone else think the chances are for loads and loads of snow in Leicester?

[we_want_snow]

I'm nervous, its allways been Mid Wales and Midlands, now its south wales, don't say ill miss this!!!

Metoffice haven't changed there warning areas for Tues/Wed

[I remember Atlantic 252]

metcheck and bbc and met office give me heavy snow for tuesday, even give manchester heavy snow so thats promising,

[we_want_snow]

I'd not be surprised to miss all this, if so it'd be the biggest of all upsets and dissapointments

Saying it's all going further south, metcheck have changed me from moderate sleet to heavy snow??????? Who knows, window watching for me

[azores92]

it does make me annoyed when one hour ago, pre-ecm, the general notion was that the midlands/mid wales was a prime location for this snow, now everyones convinced it is moving south leaving us dry once again.

[we_want_snow]

Ooh god, i'm bang in line with penkridge

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I guess they are basing that on the GFS Mark, the line between heavy snow and virtually nothing could be around Penkridge so I would get yourself down there !

hope the GFS is right then, because I have a feeling this front will stay south, that would be very bad, who knows rest of week is FI, its not guaranteed to stay cold

[kold weather]

Interestingly very good agreement on the models with regards to the northern fronts northern limits, most models get the precip upto about Manchester-eastwards, though the core of the precip is a little further south.

Its a set-up where under light ppn it may only be rain but under the heavier bursts a little further south we see snow, it reminds me of that set-up last week in central southern England where the strength of the precip changed the rain to snow.

[Nick L]

metcheck and bbc and met office give me heavy snow for tuesday, even give manchester heavy snow so thats promising,

Metcheck forecasts are based on the GFS, so they are even more useless than normal!

I am concerned that this will all be too far south, missing us by a few miles. It almost always happens in this part of the world so it will probably happen again.

[NorthantsSnow]

I'm honestly not sure whether or not Northants is in the firing line Tues/Weds. Latest ECM says yes and we're still in the UKMO advisory (eastern extent) but further north and west looks best bet at the moment.

Going to be an interesting one but at the moment my confidence in seeing snow out of this is no higher than 30%.

The GFS is awful for snow chances right across the region but luckily looks to be completely on its own.

Edited December 27, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[Bolton67]

I'm honestly not sure whether or not Northants is in the firing line Tues/Weds. Latest ECM says yes and we're still in the UKMO advisory (eastern extent) but further north and west looks best bet at the moment.

Going to be an interesting one but at the moment my confidence in seeing snow out of this is no higher than 30%.

The GFS is awful for snow chances right across the region but luckily looks to be completely on its own.

I think the GFS will move into line with the other models.

Looking at the models (tonight) they do look like a very cold outlook for the entire UK.

snow on the cards for many.

[NorthantsSnow]

I think the GFS will move into line with the other models.

Looking at the models (tonight) they do look like a very cold outlook for the entire UK.

snow on the cards for many.

Yes, the long term output, particularly from the ECM is brilliant this evening. Definitely have a classic winter feel about them.

Couldn't ask for more really considering we're not even a third of the way through the winter yet.

[A.J]

I guess they are basing that on the GFS Mark, the line between heavy snow and virtually nothing could be around Penkridge so I would get yourself down there !

Ooh god, i'm bang in line with penkridge

Penkridge?.....ah, so......my front garden get 12 inches, the garage roof a dusting, and my back garden bone dry...now thats a battleground!

[Bolton67]

Yes, the long term output, particularly from the ECM is brilliant this evening. Definitely have a classic winter feel about them.

Couldn't ask for more really considering we're not even a third of the way through the winter yet.

47, 63, 79,(09). ????????

[Paceyboy]

12z ecm shows plenty of precipiation around Central Wales and Midlands(as far north as Manchester) from about 0600 tues to about 0600weds and coupled with this, cold with 850hpa temps conducive to snow, around min -3c to generally -4/-5/-6 over the midlands, wales and NW england.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=temp&type=prec

This is an upgrade on the 00z ecm output, esp for northern extent of precip!

[Nick L]

12z ecm shows plenty of precipiation around Central Wales and Midlands(as far north as Manchester) from about 0600 tues to about 0600weds and coupled with this, cold with 850hpa temps conducive to snow, around min -3c to generally -4/-5/-6 over the midlands, wales and NW england.

http://en.vedur.is/w...=temp&type=prec

This is an upgrade on the 00z ecm output, esp for northern extent of precip!

The ECM is the best of both worlds. It would provide a big snow event on Tues followed by a prolonged cold spell, hopefully also with some snow thrown in.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12z ecm shows plenty of precipiation around Central Wales and Midlands(as far north as Manchester) from about 0600 tues to about 0600weds and coupled with this, cold with 850hpa temps conducive to snow, around min -3c to generally -4/-5/-6 over the midlands, wales and NW england.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=temp&type=prec

This is an upgrade on the 00z ecm output, esp for northern extent of precip!

yeah good chart, and I thought the ecm was the most southerly precip model

[

Edited December 27, 2009 by mark forster 630

[MKN]

At this time the -4c 850`s across the midlands.

The front will approach the sw late tomorrow and appears to become slow moving for around 48hrs,wavering around the M4 corridor.

This is a difficult snow forecast until the last few hrs. i think,with the marginal temps.dewpoints and indeed percipitation amounts.

I would have to say though that a narrow band could get several cms. from this,based on similar sypnotics i have seen in the past.

As the front moves back south towards Thurs i would think areas south of the Thames valley could well see snow as the colder uppers undercut.

This will be something to follow from now on by viewing media updated forecasts ,fax`s,radar and of course by posters onNetWeather.

I must admit in view of my location i am just starting to get a little interested.

if you are phil then so am i, what kind of snow depths if we had snow throughout would be possible for our area? we seem to be well positioned as things stand apart from if the gfs were to varify.