Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Bolton67]

Oh dear- total rain fest for the Midlands on the 18z. I do think some have been over ramping this event so perhaps a reality check was overdue.

Now let's hope for a better latter half of the run.

The snowline does eventually drop. But by the time that happens the heaviest precip is over towards the eastern half of the Midlands:

http://209.197.11.11...f4bde29ade7c85e

Lmao if this comes off.

Once again the kids, Nick ,Andy and Blizzards we be grey before they ever see a real winter!!

[azores92]

All in all, nothing special at the moment concerning mid next week.

says the 18z gfs. the 12z would have given snow quite widely i would have thought, as would ecm, even to low levels. plenty of time for change, i cant stop reiterating the difficulty in tracking these lows.

[Costa Del Fal]

says the 18z gfs. the 12z would have given snow quite widely i would have thought, as would ecm, even to low levels. plenty of time for change, i cant stop reiterating the difficulty in tracking these lows.

Yep its going to keep changing ever so slightly for pretty much every run! I think we reamin in a pretty good risk!

Edited December 26, 2009 by Blizzards

[Nick L]

I will be interested to see what the Met Office make of all this in their warnings tomorrow.

[Costa Del Fal]

I will be interested to see what the Met Office make of all this in their warnings tomorrow.

I bet they wont change much. :lol:

[Nick L]

I bet they wont change much. :lol:

Well with the FAX charts showing a bit of a damp squib (or should that be drenched squib?) I think there might be some significant changes. I hope they don't change but I think they will.

[A.J]

Whereas on the one hand you have people who can be overly optimistic, without doubt you'll have people who like to be overly pessimistic on the other. Which group would you say you fall into?

To me, it is looking unlikely for snowfall in the Midlands during on Tuesday and Wednesday. Perhaps over high ground, but even then things are looking marginal. Upper temps are meh, and dewpoints don't even get sub-zero while precip moves north. Marginal. But then again, we know what marginal gave us this Wednesday, well, the West Midlands.. Thursday is when the 'cold' is introduced and it is here where the snow risk for the Midlands increases, though I will agree, everywhere else will be at risk from snowfall.

All in all, nothing special at the moment concerning mid next week.

As General Melchet once said in 'blackadder'...'bugger me with a fishfork!!'.....are you actually being diplomatic?... (just kidding lol)....mickey taking aside, yours is the most sensible post on here tonight!..... :lol:

[azores92]

Well with the FAX charts showing a bit of a damp squib (or should that be drenched squib?) I think there might be some significant changes. I hope they don't change but I think they will.

a poster has explained over on TWO why the FAX would be conducive to snow across the midlands/wales.

[Nick L]

a poster has explained over on TWO why the FAX would be conducive to snow across the midlands/wales.

I haven't really had a good look at the FAX, but going by the comments on the model thread the general consensus seems to be a rainfest. I think I will have a good look myself next time instead of taking the lazy option :lol:

[andy_leics22]

Lmao if this comes off.

Once again the kids, Nick ,Andy and Blizzards we be grey before they ever see a real winter!!

Haha very likely! You call us lot kids... I'm wondering how old you are 40 odd maybe?

I haven't really had a good look at the FAX, but going by the comments on the model thread the general consensus seems to be a rainfest. I think I will have a good look myself next time instead of taking the lazy option :lol:

This is how it will pan out... Top of Lickey Hills = snowfest, Andy's house = rainfest

Edited December 26, 2009 by andy_leics22

[Nick L]

Haha very likely! You call us lot kids... I'm wondering how old you are :lol: 40 odd maybe?

Kid and proud We will be able to enjoy the long hot summers thanks to global warming...or endure in my case

[andy_leics22]

Kid and proud We will be able to enjoy the long hot summers thanks to global warming...or endure in my case

You might be, i'm 22 in March :lol:

[Nick L]

You might be, i'm 22 in March

You old fogie....:lol:

[Terminal Moraine]

If the latest GFS run is to be relied upon any mid-week snowfall in the Midlands is looking quite a long way on the wrong side of marginal; even at this altitude it would be touch and go whether it was snow or just sleet.

The trend has been, over the last 36 hours, for the air to the north of the front to be just mild enough to result in rain or sleet and to be honest I'd prefer the low to take a more southerly track and allow the cold air to move south and establish itself.

[MKN]

ukmo and ecm have it further south so wouldnt be to sure gfs is correct atm.

[azores92]

ukmo and ecm have it further south so wouldnt be to sure gfs is correct atm.

yes i would imagine the ukmo and ecm would work in favour of us. fingers crossed

[marksp]

heavy sleet with flecks of snow at the moment,could be wet snow at higher elevation over the Peaks of Derbyshire

[Costa Del Fal]

I would happily take the Met Offices Forecast! Heavy snow all day Tuesday and pretty much Light snow all day Wednesday!

Edited December 27, 2009 by Blizzards

[Nick L]

I would happily take the Met Offices Forecast! Heavy snow all day Tuesday and pretty much Light snow all day Wednesday!

So would I, GFS having none of it though still!

[Costa Del Fal]

So would I, GFS having none of it though still!

Indeed but it seems to be in its own dreamland right now as models like the UKMO and ECM are not having it.

[03jtrickey]

So would I, GFS having none of it though still!

If the GFS is wrong with this and we do get heavy snow I think I will just stick to the ECM and UKMO in future!

Hopefully it will be.

[Nick L]

Well one thing is for certain, we will either get an absolute drenching or an absolute pasting...

[Mark Bayley]

Indeed but it seems to be in its own dreamland right now as models like the UKMO and ECM are not having it.

Don't forget to add the GEM, GME and NOGAPs! So the GFS has very little support for how North it gets. Im my biased point of view i prefer the UKMO as that gives me the best chance of some snow!

The ECM doesn't have much precipitation coming North, even into southern Midlands!

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Edited December 27, 2009 by mark bayley

[Costa Del Fal]

Well one thing is for certain, we will either get an absolute drenching or an absolute pasting...

Yep! The GFS seems too progressive imo with the Low aswell. Im not sure the GFS is right has its yo yo ing from South to North right now. The other models are showing more consistency so i may take more notice of them.

Mark, i agree, its really on its own.

Edited December 27, 2009 by Blizzards

[andy_leics22]

I'm going with the GFS on this one, I said yesterday that this possible event won't actually bring any snow. I stand by that.