Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Nick L]

UKMO is AWESOME for Brum northwards!

Those uppers should be cold enough for the north Midlands certainly.

[azores92]

UKMO is AWESOME for Brum northwards!

Those uppers should be cold enough for the north Midlands certainly.

*gets map out*. hmmm looks like that line seems to be straddling cannock town centre. gonna be sleet from norton canes southwards no in all reality a pretty good ukmo run, and the midlands is yet again a prime location for the snow to fall, probably a little more marginal the further south you go.

[azores92]

GFS 12z pushing the Low towards south west Ireland with its relatively mild upper temps and barely sub-zero dewpoints. Honestly, I have no idea where the Met Office are getting their information because to me, it's looking like moderate rainfall with perhaps sleety conditions for a time over higher ground. That is what I'm getting from the latest GFS run.

Not being critical of the Met Office, I'm just a little confused as to why the GFS is going completely against snowfall during this period, and the Met Office seem quite confident that the conditions will be sufficient for the precip to become snow as it reaches the central Midlands and slightly northwards from there.

Later on the week is when the cold air is properly introduced, but even then it'll be eastern regions of the country that will be at risk from snow. Either the GFS backtracks from its current position, or the Met Office do. This event is only two days away, and the GFS I'm sure would have sorted things out by now!

I would love there to be heavy snowfall, even if it was for a short period. But at the moment, I'm far from convinced that that will be the case come Tuesday.

look at gem, ukmo, ecm et al and you'll see why.

[Nick L]

*gets map out*. hmmm looks like that line seems to be straddling cannock town centre. gonna be sleet from norton canes southwards no in all reality a pretty good ukmo run, and the midlands is yet again a prime location for the snow to fall, probably a little more marginal the further south you go.

Wouldn't be the first time that has happened...

[dogs32]

good chance for you guy's and girl's to have a party this week,not sure I will be in the same boat as many are putting my place as marginal!!!

But early day's yet

Cant believe the prediction's Im hearing about snow depth's...wow this could be a major event or flop!!

at present look's to be happening

[MKN]

Yeah, all pretty good. Well, like I said, either the GFS backs away from its predictions or the Met Office do. I'm hoping that the GFS is wrong, but I won't ignore what it's outputting just because other models don't agree.

Well i think thats what everyones doing, because if it wasnt for the gfs right now, i think people in this thread would be getting just a tad excited, as it is weve got to hold fire, until theres agreement across the board.

[Nick L]

Nick Miller said he will go into more detail for Tues on the 4.57pm forecast on News 24. With the models the way they are I will let the forecasters decide!

[azores92]

Nick Miller said he will go into more detail for Tues on the 4.57pm forecast on News 24. With the models the way they are I will let the forecasters decide!

i will watch that with interest. at the moment, i think you are weather09 is being sensible, as even with 48 hours of the event, the smallest thing could mean we are faced with rain or absolutely no precip at all. not all the models are in agreement as you say, but what i find encouraging is the eventual ridging between greenland and scandi on the gfs. the outlook looks better today imo, with potential for plenty more battleground events :blush:

Edited December 27, 2009 by azores92

[Nick L]

i will watch that with interest. at the moment, i think you are weather09 is being sensible, as even with 48 hours of the event, the smallest thing could mean we are faced with rain or absolutely no precip at all. not all the models are in agreement as you say, but what i find encouraging is the eventual ridging between greenland and scandi on the gfs. the outlook looks better today imo, with potential for plenty more battleground events :lol:

Found it amusing that he said there could be some heavy snow for Wales and the Midlands...and then proceeded to put rain over us :blush:

[MKN]

nick miller didnt really have very snowy looking graphics despite saying some heavy snow and drifting possible for parts of wales and the midlands. Most of the precip band just looking at the graphics was rain.

[Supercell]

Nick Miller said he will go into more detail for Tues on the 4.57pm forecast on News 24. With the models the way they are I will let the forecasters decide!

Still understandably cautious with that forecast. This could well go right down to the wire and become a nowcast. It's extremely difficult to not get too excited when you here the words "Heavy, drifting snow".

[azores92]

nick miller didnt really have very snowy looking graphics despite saying some heavy snow and drifting possible for parts of wales and the midlands. Most of the precip band just looking at the graphics was rain.

i know, i think it just highlights the uncertainty even at this stage, and the bbc graphics on the website show the rain turning to snow during tuesday morning.

[MKN]

I think this time tomorrow hopefully we will have more of an idea. We just need some sort of consensus between all the models. you would have thought by +24 there all looking exactly the same more or less.

[Nick L]

I refuse to get excited until I see the first flake fall...:blush:

[Bolton67]

Fingers crossed the GFS will get its act together and follow the UKMO.

Some areas in the mids could get some very heavy snow from this or some torrential rain.

[Hathers]

Fingers crossed the GFS will get its act together and follow the UKMO.

Some areas in the mids could get some very heavy snow from this or some torrential rain.

Do you think the football will be affected Tuesday night? Im off to watch Villa vs Liverpool and have been looking forward to it for ages. Traveelling down the M6 in a blizzard will be interesting. lol

[dogs32]

Thought I'd watch the BBC forecast and I must say that, even though the graphics would show otherwise, the forecaster did seem quite confident that significant snowfall will affect Wales and the Midlands during Tuesday as the precip progresses northwards and "bumps" into the colder situated over Wales and the Midlands. I think when they start talking about the intensity of the snow rather than just whether it will snow, then it's likely that the areas in the main risk area will see snow.

Getting a tad excited now! Just a tad, mind.

yes thats the impression Im getting from other sources and forum's

quotes like substantial crazy snowfall depths a possabilty..

Not a ramp...just passing on bits and bobs..

W09...what do you reckon in your opinion for me in central gloucestershire??

Interested to hear your view point..cheers

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Gord]

...its quite annoying that i'm away in East Anglia from Monday to Wednesday!

I'll have no internet access while i'm there so i will only know what has happened when i drive back into the West Midlands on Wednesday evening. It'll be kind of nice to bring the mystery back into it i suppose!

[marksp]

well this is still looking like a close call, maybe a bit optimistic, but if you believe the Met O, then i could be seeing incrediable falls of snow

here in North Derbyodas. Reminds me of years ago when we had 60cms of level snow in Middleton High Street. The patterns today have a old fashioned feel about them.

[dogs32]

From what I'm seeing from the models bar the GFS and the Met Office, there seems to be a fine line between the regions that will get heavy snowfall and others that will experience moderate-heavy rainfall. To me, the conditions for snowfall increase considerably as you get towards Birmingham. That's not me being biased, just using Birmingham as a guideline, so places south of Birmingham are unlikely to see snowfall (though I wouldn't rule out sleet or snow across your area), whereas from Birmingham northwards is where the snow risk is greatest.

That's what I think going by all the output from the models and the Met Office. If it pulls off, then I'm getting the feeling that this could be a significant snowfall event, meaning that 6" of snow is possible in places.

That ties in to what the BBC guy said today around 2.00pm.

Middle of Wales across Northwards...

Just hope you are both wrong,but at present I think you are correct.

My hope is this cold shift's more Southerly than predicted at present.

The thing on my side is TIME for thing's to change and the Uncertainty

of a few Forecaster's(BBC)

Thanks for your opinon

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z is great, this setup reminds me of Feb 8-9th 07, lows moving up into the cold air, if its a repeat of that then fantastic, mild air for next weekend off on 12Z

but at the moment it sucks, mild, these showers refusing to die away, need tonight clear and a cold day tomorrow, tomorrow should be exactly like Xmas eve

[we_want_snow]

I'm still unsure of what we could petentially be in for. I'm hearing 3-6in here, then 1-2ft there!!!!!!!

Most forecasts bar BBC and Metoffice (unusual) are forecasting rain/sleet for me, but i though i was in prime position

What depths could ANYONE encounter???

Netweather is forecasting me 40-50mm of rainfall or sleet. If that's snow, how much would it be???

[ANYWEATHER]

I really think this up coming winter weather will be memorable...a [CLASSIC] Winter synoptics just wait folks....!A struggle between mild and cold and guess what... SNOW FROST AND FOG OH ....ICE AS WELL reminds me of 1981/82 ...ok we shall see, but it really looks very good for Winter lovers.... and the cold WILL WIN!!!

Edited December 27, 2009 by ANYWEATHER

[dogs32]

I'm still unsure of what we could petentially be in for. I'm hearing 3-6in here, then 1-2ft there!!!!!!!

Most forecasts bar BBC and Metoffice (unusual) are forecasting rain/sleet for me, but i though i was in prime position

What depths could ANYONE encounter???

Netweather is forecasting me 40-50mm of rainfall or sleet. If that's snow, how much would it be???

remember x it by 10

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Bolton67]

All the models looking good

Just the GFS to remove its mild venture