Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Gord]

Well i'm away in Lowestoft between Monday and Wednesday next week visiting family. Looks like i could miss something. Hope the drive back across the A14 is ok on Wednesday.

[MKN]

A blast of Arctic weather will send temperatures plummeting to -18C and bring another week of transport chaos, experts warned last night.

Up to four inches of snow is expected to blanket half the country, blocking roads and stranding motorists.

Forecaster Jonathan Powell said: “If you are going out, go before Tuesday and then try to stay put.” After the Christmas week white-out, the second cold snap will reach Kent and Sussex on Tuesday and make its way North-west over the following 72 hours.

A swathe of the country including Liverpool, Birmingham, London and Wales is expected to bear the brunt of the snow, with night-time temperatures plunging to -10C.

Northern areas including Newcastle, Cumbria and Scotland will see less of the snow but overnight chill factors will plummet to -18.

Mr Powell, of forecaster Weather Solutions, said: “We are tracking a system that will push in from Russia and Siberia, making landfall in the South-east and splitting the country in two.

“From North Wales down, taking in the Midlands, some three to four inches of snow will fall.

“Temperatures will fall below freezing but the wind chill factor will be the killer, making it feel as cold as -8C in London.

“The rest of the country will be drier and brighter but very cold, with the wind chill factor making it feel like -18C.

“On Monday it will sweep from the East to West.

“Wednesday will be the pivotal day, with three to four inches of snow being dumped.

“It should have left the south on Wednesday and on New Year’s Eve it should have cleared the UK, but it will leave a cold wake. Temperatures won’t rise above zero so the snow won’t melt.”

Mr Powell added: “Black ice on the road will be the biggest nightmare. We will see people being snowed in again and affecting people travelling over New Year.”

The cold spell is predicted to remain until February with temperatures hovering around freezing.

“We won’t see a lull until into the New Year but the cold weather is set to stay until February,” Mr Powell added. “We are back to the typical British winters of the 1980s where it’s cold throughout with few lulls.

“It’s quite possible that we will see this type of winter more regularly but it’s how winter should be.

“This is going to be one of the most sustained cold winters in the last 20 years.

“Usually we get a couple of weeks where it’s freezing and then it’s mild, like last February, but we are in for a long spell this time.”

[Costa Del Fal]

Hurrah Tues and Weds is back on at the moment. Will probably stay like this now.

Meto says Birmingham had a white christmas yesterday and i noticed some sleety rain i think for a time last night so i think technically i may of had a white christmas for a time too.

A blast of Arctic weather will send temperatures plummeting to -18C and bring another week of transport chaos, experts warned last night.

Up to four inches of snow is expected to blanket half the country, blocking roads and stranding motorists.

...

Oh dear rampety ramp ramp.

[NorthantsSnow]

Hmmm...sorry to be a party pooper but perhaps it's about time these "cold spell" threads were locked for the time being? It feels incredibly warm out there. I know it's only 6 or 7C or something but it feels much milder after the relentless cold we've had of late and temps constantly hovering above or below freezing.

Snow melt has been considerable overnight into today, with only very isolated patches of slush left in highly sheltered spots but even that is waning.

Yesterday was a White Christmas in Northants after all with some fresh snowfall during the early hours. The scene at around 2pm:

[andy_leics22]

The thing we need to remember is that previous GFS runs trended it southwards, now it is suddenly going northwards, I can almost guarantee that it will go southwards again by tomorrow. This will not be nailed until Sunday at the very earliest.

Well you was correct there my friend, 06 has indeed placed it further South. However it doesen't look like much of an event lol. few hours of snow possible then it's all over. None of thisd prolonged stuff we spoke about yesterday.

[Nick L]

Well you was correct there my friend, 06 has indeed placed it further South. However it doesen't look like much of an event lol. few hours of snow possible then it's all over. None of thisd prolonged stuff we spoke about yesterday.

It will change, by this afternoon it will probably budge further north - which is what we want if we want to get the heavy stuff.

I got told off in the model thread for being willing to have a massive snow event on Tues/Wed if it meant sacrificing a similar cold spell to what we just had. I don't know why. A choice between a lot of snow followed by a not so cold spell...or nothing followed by a cold spell which will deliver nothing...I know which one I would choose.

[Potent Gust]

It will change, by this afternoon it will probably budge further north - which is what we want if we want to get the heavy stuff.

I got told off in the model thread for being willing to have a massive snow event on Tues/Wed if it meant sacrificing a similar cold spell to what we just had. I don't know why. A choice between a lot of snow followed by a not so cold spell...or nothing followed by a cold spell which will deliver nothing...I know which one I would choose.

I agree. This has not been the best cold spell for us so I would sacrifice less cold weather for a while for a big snow event. Met office 5-16 day outlook out and still cold, no backtracking as yet!

Edited December 26, 2009 by Potent Gust

[NorthantsSnow]

It will change, by this afternoon it will probably budge further north - which is what we want if we want to get the heavy stuff.

I got told off in the model thread for being willing to have a massive snow event on Tues/Wed if it meant sacrificing a similar cold spell to what we just had. I don't know why. A choice between a lot of snow followed by a not so cold spell...or nothing followed by a cold spell which will deliver nothing...I know which one I would choose.

You have gone down in my estimation, Nick. You're selfish enough to not care if the default winter pattern of mild SW'lies kicks in as long as you get your major snow event and ignorant enough not to realise it will soon be forgotten when we're bathing in double figure temps a few days later.

A prolonged cold spell on the other hand would deliver snow to virtually all areas of the UK within time, snow would lay on the ground for days if not weeks and sub zero temperatures would continue well into January. By the way, no one cold spell is ever going to be the same so just because you didn't get much last week does not mean you won't next time. All it takes is a trough or front in a cold NEly flow to bring heavy snow well inland.

Honestly, I despair of some of these comments. If 1 heavy snow event in your back yard is all you're after, then you must have really enjoyed the past 18 or so winters because that is essentially all that most of those contained!

Edited December 26, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[Costa Del Fal]

Local Express and Star paper saying we could see upto 15cm (6 inches) on Tuesday alone!

[NorthantsSnow]

Local Express and Star paper saying we could see upto 15cm (6 inches) on Tuesday alone!

Enjoy it whilst it lasts, if indeed it does fall as snow (only 30% chance). Nick and others are willing for it to be washed away by rain and double figure temps a few days later!

Edited December 26, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[hollisk]

Chill out guys, I don't often comment on this forum, but have been viewing it for several years now. I really cant understand why people getting irritated with people on here just because their views are different! chill- its Christmas!

[Hailsowen]

Pleased that the MO said that Birmingham managed a (very technical) white christmas yesterday.

Warnings about Tuesday & Wednesday stand from them as well.

Still, whatever will be, will be. Nothing I can say or do that would send me to the Isle of Wight where they're enjoying 11C. Or even in Aviemore, which records things like -7C in the middle of the day.

Edited December 26, 2009 by Hailsowen

[NorthantsSnow]

Chill out guys, I don't often comment on this forum, but have been viewing it for several years now. I really cant understand why people getting irritated with people on here just because their views are different! chill- its Christmas!

I'm just trying to be a bit realistic and look at the bigger picture. Others seem to be lost in la-la land at the moment and their judgement clouded by ideas of what MIGHT happen next week, but actually it doesn't look all that promising. If we take Hereford in the west Midlands as an example for the moment. The Met Office forecast currently indicates:

Mon day- 3C sunny intervals.

Mon night- 0C heavy rain.

Tue day- 5C heavy rain.

Tue night- 2C light snow.

Wed day- 6C heavy rain.

Hardly the most inspiring forecast and yet people are putting all their eggs in one basket and treating this possible event as the be-all-or-end-all.

A prolonged cold spell however would certainly deliver.

[Nick L]

Enjoy it whilst it lasts, if indeed it does fall as snow (only 30% chance). Nick and others are willing for it to be washed away by rain and double figure temps a few days later!

So? If we want it to happen it's not going to make ANY difference to what happens. I don't see why you have such a problem with it, I have a right to an opinion don't I? The laws of physics don't take opinions into account.

If the prolonged cold spell happens I won't be disappointed, but it doesn't guarantee a big snowfall for me, my location isn't exactly the best in the world for snow as we saw last week. People who live near me also share the same view.

And the point about having one big snow event with the rest mild for every winter in the past 18 years, I disagree. The only winter I can remember like that was 2006/07, and I missed half of the Feb one anyway. The winters I remember had moderate falls (an inch or 2 at best) surrounded by mild.

Edited December 26, 2009 by nick2702

[NorthantsSnow]

So? If we want it to happen it's not going to make ANY difference to what happens. I don't see why you have such a problem with it, I have a right to an opinion don't I? The laws of physics don't take opinions into account.

I didn't say that it did. We'll just have to agree to disagree. Clearly we are both looking for different things this winter. You want a mixed winter with the odd big snowfall event like 99% of recent UK winters. I want some more long lasting cold. That's fine.

But there's no doubt about it that the best snowfalls across the Midlands occur as part of longer cold spells. Look back as recently as Feb this year. Heavy snow fell here and other parts of the Midlands for several days and that followed an easterly initially, resulting in about 13 days of successive snowcover. We need to get the cold "locked in" first and then snow events will follow.

The channel low setup could be good one but it's very risky and let's not pretend it's the only setup which delivers for the Midlands, as that is not the case.

Edited December 26, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06Z moved it south damn! looks like a dry week coming up and cold, but bbc charts have it much further north, UKMO has it maybe too far north, last nights 18Z had it miles north

so still changes to come, but I think the most likely outcome is the cold air from the north to 'win out' moving the low and PPN south leaving the midlands bone dry and frosty like most of last weekend/early last week

[azores92]

06Z moved it south damn! looks like a dry week coming up and cold, but bbc charts have it much further north, UKMO has it maybe too far north, last nights 18Z had it miles north

so still changes to come, but I think the most likely outcome is the cold air from the north to 'win out' moving the low and PPN south leaving the midlands bone dry and frosty like most of last weekend/early last week

i dont agree mark. you're reading into one run too much. recently the track of the low has chopped and changed like the shape of the clouds in the sky, and it will inevitably change. the met office are convinced of some snowfall to this region next week, and the outlook remains cold aswell.

[Costa Del Fal]

i dont agree mark. you're reading into one run too much. recently the track of the low has chopped and changed like the shape of the clouds in the sky, and it will inevitably change. the met office are convinced of some snowfall to this region next week, and the outlook remains cold aswell.

I agree-Infact i think it looks rather good for us, particularly Central/Southern Midlands but time for change yet.

Edited December 26, 2009 by Blizzards

[dogs32]

I agree-Infact i think it looks rather good for us, particularly Central/Southern Midlands but time for change yet.

BBC guy looked or seemed very confident of this event,though he stated this was too far away at present to be accurate,but its looking good.

[Albion Snowman]

I dont understand. The Beeb are saying "when the rain bumps into the cold air over the midlands..." etc it will turn to snow. But we havent got cold air. Its gone quite mild really. I dont think 5C will allow any snow accumulation? Thoughts?

[Cymro]

I dont understand. The Beeb are saying "when the rain bumps into the cold air over the midlands..." etc it will turn to snow. But we havent got cold air. Its gone quite mild really. I dont think 5C will allow any snow accumulation? Thoughts?

We don't have overly mild air either and from tomorrow onwards things will cool down quite a lot again with monday seeing maxes o 1/2 across most o the Uk colder in Scotland and Northern England.

[Costa Del Fal]

Wow we would be really in for it if the 12z were to come off For Tues, Weds and Thurs and maybe in to Friday! Central and North Midlands, Wales and northwards would certainly be needing shovels with this :lol: . It takes ages for the Precip to move away but we have a pretty much constant snow risk here and with the risk of strong winds could we see actual Blizzard conditions? :blink:

Edited December 26, 2009 by Blizzards

[NorthantsSnow]

Great run for the Eastern side of the Midlands as well. Probably the right side of marginal for Wed/Thurs next week with lots of precipitation around, near constant for 36 hours or so and temps just about low enough. It's marginal yes but so was February 5th/6th 2009 and even more so a February 9th and snow fell here on all 3 occasions.

What I don't like about the run is what happens after. Yet again we don't get sustained cold which is a great shame if you ask me with such good looking synoptics. But the trend next week is looking increasingly snowy as we head towards 2010.

[Mark Bayley]

Wow we would be really in for it if the 12z were to come off For Tues, Weds and Thurs and maybe in to Friday! Central and North Midlands, Wales and northwards would certainly be needing shovels with this . It takes ages for the Precip to move away but we have a pretty much constant snow risk here and with the risk of strong winds could we see actual Blizzard conditions?

Not if the UKMO has its way :blink:

[A.J]

Wow we would be really in for it if the 12z were to come off For Tues, Weds and Thurs and maybe in to Friday! Central and North Midlands, Wales and northwards would certainly be needing shovels with this :lol: . It takes ages for the Precip to move away but we have a pretty much constant snow risk here and with the risk of strong winds could we see actual Blizzard conditions? :blink:

no kidding ....just did a quick calculation, based on pure snowfall (no rain) using 12z GFS local 16 day snow risk forecast, and...it would add up to an 18 inch accumulation over a 48 hour period..Quite astonishing...subject to potential change of course (just to temper this obscenley outrageous RRRAAAAMMMMP.... :lol: )