Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Nick L]

Andy, would you like to comment on the "Ere Comes Mild" model?

[Rommy]

now a upgrade for midlands for snow next week?

Edited December 25, 2009 by Rommy

[Bolton67]

now a upgrade for midlands for snow next week?

You was crying not long ago it was going to lash down.

Edited December 25, 2009 by Lancs_Northants

[Rommy]

You was crying not long ago it was going to lash down.

lol..no comment

[cyclonic happiness]

The latest radar is showing sleet for the midlands can anyone confirm?

There could be a slight chance of wet snow for some of the higher parts?

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[LeeKay]

(Happy Christmas)

Both raintoday and netweather (WS6) radar showing that i should be under some sort of ppn but nothing falling from the clouds yet, i can just make out the moon so the cloud cover is still thin. Temp has been on the up over the past hr or so... currently 1.9°C rate +0.60°/hr

[Terminal Moraine]

A few flakes of snow started falling in the last 10 minutes. Temp' is -0.4c.

[NorthantsSnow]

Next week is still up in the air. The models will be suffering from a lack of data today due to Christmas (human input side of things) so I wouldn't worry too much.

[Bolton67]

Next week is still up in the air. The models will be suffering from a lack of data today due to Christmas (human input side of things) so I wouldn't worry too much.

Good evening dan, and merry christmas.

Dan, if these models come off, i will struggle to make it to Asda in kingsthorpe

[NorthantsSnow]

Good evening dan, and merry christmas.

Dan, if these models come off, i will struggle to make it to Asda in kingsthorpe

Merry Christmas to you too fella. Hope you're having a good one!

If the ECM comes off I will struggle to make it out the door let alone reach the nearest supermarket! :D

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my semi white Xmas remained, but now temps 2.9C, highest since last friday, snow all gone by midnight I feel, next week looking interesting, way too early to call yet but I look like being too far north

[Bolton67]

my semi white Xmas remained, but now temps 2.9C, highest since last friday, snow all gone by midnight I feel, next week looking interesting, way too early to call yet but I look like being too far north

Hi mark.

Yes, some are saying your position is too north.

But hey, things can and will change.

[Nick L]

my semi white Xmas remained, but now temps 2.9C, highest since last friday, snow all gone by midnight I feel, next week looking interesting, way too early to call yet but I look like being too far north

I don't know, ECM ppn charts showed us right in the thick of it, with the 850s around -5/-6c.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I don't know, ECM ppn charts showed us right in the thick of it, with the 850s around -5/-6c.

Just be like the thing if the snow band stalled 8 miles to my south!

[Gord]

Heavy rain here in Stourbridge right now. Washing away the last of the lying snow and the slight frost from earlier this evening,

[03jtrickey]

I hope you are all having a wonderful Christmas and will continue to do so

Seems like we are the place to be for once - Gloucestershire strategically placed north of the famous M4 rain/snow boundary cliche, and far enough south to hopefully feast on the available precipitation! Same for the rest of the Midlands - we deserve this event after largely missing out last week - I'm hoping so much that it comes off!!! Good luck to all. It's fantastic model viewing at the moment in any case and a return to colder weather seems a certainty.

Just read on the BBC that Oklahoma City has "eclipsed" its earlier snow record from 1914 of 2.5 inches, with a FOURTEEN inch snowfall. Over a foot! If they can achieve mammoth depths, we ought to have a good shot here

[mildmuck]

Merry Christmas to you too fella. Hope you're having a good one!

If the ECM comes off I will struggle to make it out the door let alone reach the nearest supermarket! :)

Really hope we actually get something here in West Midlands rather than having the scag ends from the break down few days back, Midlands doesn't seem to do very well unless fronts hit cold air and produce snow.

Met Office have updated there warnings on there website for the 29th .....

Still there's plenty of time for change.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Edited December 25, 2009 by mildmuck

[Supercell]

A shame the 18z has gone with the 12z and further introduced milder air northwards. I am not really interested in what is to come afterwards. The Midlands really needs a battleground channel low to produce a widespread dumping. We'll have a better idea when the other model outputs are released.

[Nick L]

A shame the 18z has gone with the 12z and further introduced milder air northwards. I am not really interested in what is to come afterwards. The Midlands really needs a battleground channel low to produce a widespread dumping. We'll have a better idea when the other model outputs are released.

The thing we need to remember is that previous GFS runs trended it southwards, now it is suddenly going northwards, I can almost guarantee that it will go southwards again by tomorrow. This will not be nailed until Sunday at the very earliest.

[azores92]

The thing we need to remember is that previous GFS runs trended it southwards, now it is suddenly going northwards, I can almost guarantee that it will go southwards again by tomorrow. This will not be nailed until Sunday at the very earliest.

exactly nick, im not worried too much by the 12/18z runs, because most likely the track of this low will change around a fair bit before tuesday, as channel lows are notoriously tricky to forecast. hope everyone has had a merry xmas by the way

[Supercell]

Well Ian Brown was adamant the low would likely head south, if anything, in previous posts. He's also in disagreement with the UKMO and GFS 18Z, so that's comforting.

[azores92]

Well Ian Brown was adamant the low would likely head south, if anything, in previous posts. He's also in disagreement with the UKMO and GFS 18Z, so that's comforting.

i dont think the 18z and UKMO can be entirely dismissed, but what i will say is this. the models are notorious at this time of year for lack of data, and because it is very hard to predict channel lows just like a polar low, any prediction outside of a 48 hour timeframe is likely to be guesswork. even at this stage, as pleasing as it seems to the eye that the MO have a prediction for snow across the midlands(which the ECM would deliver no doubt), it is still speculation. i would not be surprised if the track moved further south, as in the past channel lows have tended to stay away from our shores. im certainly not getting too hung up over the 12z/18z gfs and 12z ukmo showing the track further north. relax, its christmas. i for one was trying to stay away from the computer today but gave into temptation at the last minute lol.

[Gord]

Well christmas day ends very wet here. Heavy rain all evening beating against my windows. Brings back memories of...um... 2 weeks ago!

Hope you've all had a good day!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

seems to look ok now for next week, have snow warnings for tue/wed, 00Z way better than 18Z, still a long way off, FI a bit crap but hope that changes

[Rommy]

is the snow still on for next week for the midlands?