North West Cold Spell 9

[HotCuppa]

So what do you see happening to us here in S.Liverpool mate?

My temp currently is 0.3C

Temp trend 15 mins 0.1C

Trend 0.5C rising slowly

Dewpoint -0.7 °C rising

1003.9 rising slowly

precip 0.0mm

Wind SE

Wind Speed 1mph

Gusts 2mph

Hi Martin, It's a bit lame of me to say its a case of hold your backside at the moment. The models especially the GFS which I hate is saying nothing doing while the the dreaded meto are giving it the ramping up of snow, but in their warnings they can't really be sure where will hit. As we have seen the meto have been often wrong and the BBC who partner them just spout their retoric hence the snow warnings going on.

The situation to me is quite complicated because it's hard to know if the colder upper air will arrive in time when the moisture from the south turns up tonight and into tomorrow morning. We need colder upper air than we currently have, or it would just be rain. From what I have seen so far is very marginal at best, and more than likely it will be a horrible mix of rain/sleet and slushy snow. On the other hand we might just get the colder air in, that will ensure we get the snow falling. There is a potential for this system to stall over the north west, and should it do so with biting easterly winds there is the potential for a very heavy snow battering, id stay cautious of this..there is a pretty good chance those in the south of the region will just see rain and sleety conditions while those say in Oldham and northern areas will likely get nothing but snow. I can't even say if this is going to be elevation based snow, because the models are a complete mess and its hard to believe anything from any of them at the moment. If it is convective snow, then yeah its possible the whole of the south of the region could get a battering..but I think we should use some caution at the moment. If the weather and temps deteriate then all bets are on, as it stands I have no idea what will happen its just all guess work and I doubt anyone else does either.

Max Temp today 3.7C

Low -1C

Tomorrow Max 1C

Low -2C

Wed Max 3C

Low -2C

Weather for today, foggy start, low clouds possible light rain becoming dry this evening, staying cloudy and feeling cold in the easterly wind. Rain arriving from the south overnight, turning to sleety conditions by morning. Possible heavy snow tomorrow afternoon, tapering off wed overnight.

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[martinj2]

Hi Martin, It's a bit lame of me to say its a case of hold your backside at the moment. The models especially the GFS which I hate is saying nothing doing while the the dreaded meto are giving it the ramping up of snow, but in their warnings they can't really be sure where will hit. As we have seen the meto have been often wrong and the BBC who partner them just spout their retoric hence the snow warnings going on.

The situation to me is quite complicated because it's hard to know if the colder upper air will arrive in time when the moisture from the south turns up tonight and into tomorrow morning. We need colder upper air than we currently have, or it would just be rain. From what I have seen so far is very marginal at best, and more than likely it will be a horrible mix of rain/sleet and slushy snow. On the other hand we might just get the colder air in, that will ensure we get the snow falling. There is a potential for this system to stall over the north west, and should it do so with biting easterly winds there is the potential for a very heavy snow battering, id stay cautious of this..there is a pretty good chance those in the south of the region will just see rain and sleety conditions while those say in Oldham and northern areas will likely get nothing but snow. I can't even say if this is going to be elevation based snow, because the models are a complete mess and its hard to believe anything from any of them at the moment. If it is convective snow, then yeah its possible the whole of the south of the region could get a battering..but I think we should use some caution at the moment. If the weather and temps deteriate then all bets are on, as it stands I have no idea what will happen its just all guess work and I doubt anyone else does either.

Thanks mate, my money is on sleety, rainy stuff-just based on experience. I remember 194/95 I think, when the whole of the NW got battered and we got none!

[HotCuppa]

Thanks mate, my money is on sleety, rainy stuff-just based on experience. I remember 194/95 I think, when the whole of the NW got battered and we got none!

I have to say though its definitely looking like convective snow, so it's looking possible for a battering especially at lower levels and those on the coast, we should know more this afternoon, evening.

[martinj2]

I have to say though its definitely looking like convective snow, so it's looking possible for a battering especially at lower levels and those on the coast, we should know more this afternoon, evening.

.......see you on Camp Hill then....LOL

[chris78]

i was told earlier on that the main thing was that the cold air moves in, it certanöy has here i got .5 in a sheltered town cemtre yard

[HotCuppa]

.......see you on Camp Hill then....LOL

haha personally id like to be right in the firing line, which will be southern scotland when the lp arrives..its going to get a major battering. 2/3 feet is not unreasonable from the setup, sadly by the time they get it everything we have (if we get anything) will have washed away...there is a good chance at the weekend for our region to get snow.

i was told earlier on that the main thing was that the cold air moves in, it certanöy has here i got .5 in a sheltered town cemtre yard

Last night was a hard frost for the region, expect it to rise.

[dodge]

I don't think this low pushing up from the south will make it this far north. Certainly not in a way that would cause any disruption. Looks like the real fun will be in parts of mid wales and west midlands. The models are in dissagreement as to the placing of the low. Don't be too upset if it doesn't make it this far north, because it will more likey open the floodgates to a possible biting easterly/north easterly come the New Year.

[HotCuppa]

I don't think this low pushing up from the south will make it this far north. Certainly not in a way that would cause any disruption. Looks like the real fun will be in parts of mid wales and west midlands. The models are in dissagreement as to the placing of the low. Don't be too upset if it doesn't make it this far north, because it will more likey open the floodgates to a possible biting easterly/north easterly come the New Year.

I have to agree with you, the GFS has for a while now at mid range been following this lp and has been positioning it further and further south (using the currenty met charts, the low will track further north allowing colder air to move in and giving southern areas of scotland, glasgow a potential heavy battering this is if the meto are right), infact looking out at mid range you can see that it ends up sitting on the french coast, before skirting of the se of england then disappearing into the continent. Hence why I used the word marginal besides the upper air not being quite cold enough..that could change later on today though..currently ese winds. However the GFS and meto disagree, who to believe? I hate GFS because it can be very wrong, but the same is true of Meto..however in this case I am going with GFS because their positioning as been bang on the dollar for me..whether this changes during today is another thing.

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

Will the PPN reach the north west if so will it be Rain/Sleet/Snow?

At this stage i would direct you to the model thread and read Steve Murr

Post

C.S

[Backtrack]

My temp currently is 0.3C

Temp trend 15 mins 0.1C

Trend 0.5C rising slowly

Dewpoint -0.7 °C rising

1003.9 rising slowly

precip 0.0mm

Wind SE

Wind Speed 1mph

Gusts 2mph

Hi Martin, It's a bit lame of me to say its a case of hold your backside at the moment. The models especially the GFS which I hate is saying nothing doing while the the dreaded meto are giving it the ramping up of snow, but in their warnings they can't really be sure where will hit. As we have seen the meto have been often wrong and the BBC who partner them just spout their retoric hence the snow warnings going on.

The situation to me is quite complicated because it's hard to know if the colder upper air will arrive in time when the moisture from the south turns up tonight and into tomorrow morning. We need colder upper air than we currently have, or it would just be rain. From what I have seen so far is very marginal at best, and more than likely it will be a horrible mix of rain/sleet and slushy snow. On the other hand we might just get the colder air in, that will ensure we get the snow falling. There is a potential for this system to stall over the north west, and should it do so with biting easterly winds there is the potential for a very heavy snow battering, id stay cautious of this..there is a pretty good chance those in the south of the region will just see rain and sleety conditions while those say in Oldham and northern areas will likely get nothing but snow. I can't even say if this is going to be elevation based snow, because the models are a complete mess and its hard to believe anything from any of them at the moment. If it is convective snow, then yeah its possible the whole of the south of the region could get a battering..but I think we should use some caution at the moment. If the weather and temps deteriate then all bets are on, as it stands I have no idea what will happen its just all guess work and I doubt anyone else does either.

Max Temp today 3.7C

Low -1C

Tomorrow Max 1C

Low -2C

Wed Max 3C

Low -2C

Weather for today, foggy start, low clouds possible light rain becoming dry this evening, staying cloudy and feeling cold in the easterly wind. Rain arriving from the south overnight, turning to sleety conditions by morning. Possible heavy snow tomorrow afternoon, tapering off wed overnight.

I disagree. The BBC have been bang on with the type of weather - Just off with the temperatures by 1-2c. We will get something from this setup - Might not be as much as what we got last time, but we will get something.

-0.2c here - TEMP IS DROPPING, and foggy.

[HotCuppa]

I disagree. The BBC have been bang on with the type of weather - Just off with the temperatures by 1-2c. We will get something from this setup - Might not be as much as what we got last time, but we will get something.

-0.2c here - TEMP IS DROPPING, and foggy.

You say you disagree then go on to say the following "Just off with the temperatures by 1-2c" this is highly important because the temps do make all the difference. It's easy to say bang on when its currently happening further more it's hardly a stretch to figure out whats going on in the next 12 hours when the same thing has been occuring now for a number of days, this current setup is looking like the GFS might be right. I know you want snow badly, but I just can't see it reaching this far north like the above poster said. It depends where the lp is now. Upper air is now too warm, unless this changes all I can see is rain.

Using the GFS run, mid wales and west midlands are looking decent right now, possible extent north wales..if it does reach there then we might get something, but the temps and dewpoints are rising and will continue to do so throughout this morning afternoon.

The temp is not dropping its rising. It was a frosty night last night. We got to -2.3°C its now +0.5 °C ergo its rising. Dewpoint is entering marginal territory too -0.4 °C

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[Weather-history]

The Met Office have udpated their advisories and it is clear that at this moment they are not going the GFS route, if they had Cumbria would be under the advisory as well. The main focus appears to be eastern Wales and West Midlands.

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales during Tuesday.

Outbreaks of rain spreading slowly northwards will turn to sleet and snow. Accumulations of 5-10cm are possible in places accompanied by strengthening easterly winds giving drifting locally. There remains uncertainty over the areas at risk which will be kept under review.

Issued at: 1111 Mon 28 Dec

Edited December 28, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Backtrack]

You say you disagree then go on to say the following "Just off with the temperatures by 1-2c" this is highly important because the temps do make all the difference. It's easy to say bang on when its currently happening further more it's hardly a stretch to figure out whats going on in the next 12 hours when the same thing has been occuring now for a number of days, this current setup is looking like the GFS might be right. I know you want snow badly, but I just can't see it reaching this far north like the above poster said. It depends where the lp is now. Upper air is now too warm, unless this changes all I can see is rain.

Using the GFS run, mid wales and west midlands are looking decent right now, possible extent north wales..if it does reach there then we might get something, but the temps and dewpoints are rising and will continue to do so throughout this morning afternoon.

The temp is not dropping its rising. It was a frosty night last night. We got to -2.3°C its now +0.5 °C ergo its rising. Dewpoint is entering marginal territory too -0.4 °C

I meant the BBC temps were too HIGH...

I dont see how the met o, bbc weather, the GFS and the net weather local forecasts say snow, yet you think it will rain. Sorry, but I just cannot see it raining.

[cheshire snow]

I meant the BBC temps were too HIGH...

I dont see how the met o, bbc weather, the GFS and the net weather local forecasts say snow, yet you think it will rain. Sorry, but I just cannot see it raining.

Agree Backtrack

I still think sourthern areas of the region are at risk from Snow

The latest METO warnings now have NW Midlands under the orenge warning band

Which is why i think as stated Southern areas of the region could be in the fireing line

C.S

[Weather-history]

A brave call by manual forecasters against the might of the GFS, although if it all quickly turns to rain as mild air spreads in, then people will say ' ah well it didn't turn out as bad as we thought'.

Why Ian? If using your logic, last week, they had ignored their own models and went the "mighty" GFS route, for that system that produced the freezing rain and snow, they would have been panned and people screaming why didn't you see it coming?

Edited December 28, 2009 by Mr_Data

[cheshire snow]

Well if you believe Metcheck parts of this region are going to get 30cm Snow Tues/Wed

Updated at 1148 Today

C.S

[inga]

Horwich is horrible today. Yesterday Winter Hill was a mound of soggy snow, slush, standing and gushing meltwater and mud. Walking through it was extremely arduous. Today the apparently clear pavements and roads, and the still snowy ones, are veneered in black ice. Stepping outside is deadly. Having spoiled the first half of my Christmas break, the damned snow and ice seem determined to spoil the second half too.

[snowdrifter]

Horwich is horrible today. Yesterday Winter Hill was a mound of soggy snow, slush, standing and gushing meltwater and mud. Walking through it was extremely arduous. Today the apparently clear pavements and roads, and the still snowy ones, are veneered in black ice. Stepping outside is deadly. Having spoiled the first half of my Christmas break, the damned snow and ice seem determined to spoil the second half too.

Hi inga - just setting off to Horwich in 5 mins to see relatives. Ta for the heads-up on the black ice! Re snow, can't see Lancs getting much from this - too far north - but will hopefully allow a real easterly set-up developing. Off to black ice land!

[HotCuppa]

I meant the BBC temps were too HIGH...

I dont see how the met o, bbc weather, the GFS and the net weather local forecasts say snow, yet you think it will rain. Sorry, but I just cannot see it raining.

The bbc weather spout met rhetoric because they employ met office forecasters thats easy to understand. The GFS as been adamant since the beginning where the low will end up I happen to agree with it, for the most part i can't really see the low being that far north. Sorry but I can't see it being off, no matter what the other models happen to say. ECM started all this, is the ECM backing down per chance now that it possibly positioned the high to far north?

Current Temp 1.2C

Dewpoint -0.4C

Pressure -> 1003.9 steady after a slow rise.

Wind SSE was originally E, then ESE, then SE, wind is almost a southerly.

However there is a good chance of a real blast of snow on new years day, with a possibility on Dec 31 Like you I want it to snow as well, mainly for my children.

Well if you believe Metcheck parts of this region are going to get 30cm Snow Tues/Wed

Updated at 1148 Today

C.S

Metcheck are well known for blowing things out of proportion

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I've been reading the (I assume) ironically titled 'Model Discussion Thread' and looking at the BBC forecasts, and it would seem I'm due nothing in the way of snow in the near to middle future. However, when I look at the NW Extra precipitation charts, it would seem it's going to snow pretty much non-stop right through to the other side of New Year. Now, I'm not particularly fussed whether it snows or not, because I've still got 3" left, the countryside is carpeted, and I'm sick to death of falling over, but what's the real deal here?

[HotCuppa]

I've been reading the (I assume) ironically titled 'Model Discussion Thread' and looking at the BBC forecasts, and it would seem I'm due nothing in the way of snow in the near to middle future. However, when I look at the NW Extra precipitation charts, it would seem it's going to snow pretty much non-stop right through to the other side of New Year. Now, I'm not particularly fussed whether it snows or not, because I've still got 3" left, the countryside is carpeted, and I'm sick to death of falling over, but what's the real deal here?

Meto / ECM V GFS funny thing is that ECM pulled a real stinker at the start of the cold spell and I believe its done it again, but this time meto happen to agree with them. The lp is positioned to track further south than it currently is by GFS, however Meto/ECM fantasy Island it, by having the high far too north giving a huge hammering to the NW, I think we need to be very cautious is all I am saying.

And ironically a few hours ago they had warnings out for much of the north for today and for tomorrow, now the warnings are for mid wales / west midlands. Seems they have backed away with the orange warnings altogether for the nw and northern england. No surprise really they had to begin to tow the line. GFS is right is all. To go from a full blown warning back to a possible advisory is backtracking quite a bit if you ask me.

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

Meto / ECM V GFS funny thing is that ECM pulled a real stinker at the start of the cold spell and I believe its done it again, but this time meto happen to agree with them. The lp is positioned to track further south than it currently is by GFS, however Meto/ECM fantasy Island it, by having the high far too north giving a huge hammering to the NW, I think we need to be very cautious is all I am saying.

And ironically a few hours ago they had warnings out for much of the north for today and for tomorrow, now the warnings are for mid wales / west midlands. Seems they have backed away with the orange warnings altogether for the nw and northern england. No surprise really they had to begin to tow the line. GFS is right is all. To go from a full blown warning back to a possible advisory is backtracking quite a bit if you ask me.

Erm NO

NW England was never under the orenge band has always been under the yellow band

And still is LOL

C.S

[snowingtequila]

Meto / ECM V GFS funny thing is that ECM pulled a real stinker at the start of the cold spell and I believe its done it again, but this time meto happen to agree with them. The lp is positioned to track further south than it currently is by GFS, however Meto/ECM fantasy Island it, by having the high far too north giving a huge hammering to the NW, I think we need to be very cautious is all I am saying.

And ironically a few hours ago they had warnings out for much of the north for today and for tomorrow, now the warnings are for mid wales / west midlands. Seems they have backed away with the orange warnings altogether for the nw and northern england. No surprise really they had to begin to tow the line. GFS is right is all. To go from a full blown warning back to a possible advisory is backtracking quite a bit if you ask me.

there was never a full warning. Always an advisory because they were not sure and it said this. If the GFS is/was right then the band would reach the northwest. The warnigns for today did not concern the encroaching low but were for ice and snow in the northeast moving from Scotland

[Backtrack]

Erm NO

NW England was never under the orenge band has always been under the yellow band

And still is LOL

C.S

Agreed - They have just put Wales under orange alert because the snow is more likely to cause disruption there due to the 10-15cm forecast on lower ground.

Still - Whatever happens - It's December. Although we will certainly see some snow from this cold snap, like HotCuppa says - It may not be tomorrow (Although probably will be) if not - New Year!

[HotCuppa]

Erm NO

NW England was never under the orenge band has always been under the yellow band

And still is LOL

C.S

erm YES it was, early this morning...the whole of northern England was under an orange warning that is.

Edited December 28, 2009 by HotCuppa