North West Cold Spell 9

[swainclubber]

Models seem all over the place this morning,however the latest on the BBC at 10am this morning

Had some great snow graphics over parts of NW England for Tues Evening/Night the female forecaster

Stated they are watching closely as there is a risk of severe disruption might all change by the end of

Play today but so far so good

Areas at risk W/midlands Mid to North Wales and as stated most of NW England which would

Co-inside with the early warnings on the METO website

C.S

looking at the GFS surface conditions, it all looks very marginal to me. the dew points are too high for a start right up to thursday. or am i missing something?

[Liam J]

interesting times watching this situation unfold as regards to midweek snowfall, temp currently 3.2c here so its hardly mild anyway with a feed now from the nw from a very cold sctoland, any showers that come by today will be wintry with sleet/hail i expect as it looks like a cold undercut is coming down accross us, nice snowfall over scotland last night and at present.

feast your eyes here and read it, 40cm of fresh snow overnight in aberfeldy!!

http://www.aberfeldyweather.com/

[cheshire snow]

looking at the GFS surface conditions, it all looks very marginal to me. the dew points are too high for a start right up to thursday. or am i missing something?

Hi Ben

Have a look at the control run as Mr Data said this would give us serious Snow problems until The New

Year.Would totally dis-reguard GFS it has no other support from any other models

C.S

[swainclubber]

Hi Ben

Have a look at the control run as Mr Data said this would give us serious Snow problems until The New

Year.Would totally dis-reguard GFS it has no other support from any other models

C.S

cheers for the reply, i have to limit what i look at as i use an internet dongle with limited data so i'll have to take your word for it and keep the fingers crossed

[trickydicky]

Just got back home to Longridge and I'm amazed to find full snow cover... still... on to our 11th day! If it can get through til tonights frost, which it looks like doing, then it could last another week.

[fluffytrollop]

mornin all, ice floes here in m21 are melting/dissolving, rain with a little bit of sleet in, not a lot though...are we due for more of the white stuff then you reckon? looks a bit tricky - don't know the dew point for here but obviously well up on previous days.

I for one would be overjoyed to be seeing snow again, though I know I'm in the minority in my street, having been out shifting ice from peoples paths etc, the roads are like glass, my big old van can just about do it, but the dinky little cars are skating about with no traction at all.

Hey ho, hope all had a lovely yule and here's to more snow in the new year if the next lot fizzles to rain..

[dodge]

Feels colder today, but the showers that are falling, are of rain. Quite a lot of thawing in recent days, the familiar vision of grey slab concrete, and tarmac is now returning to the scene, after days of being white-washed with snowfall.

Not sure what if any fresh snowfall we will receive from midweek onwards, but currently I don't think we are in the firing line for the low coming up from the south.

[cheshire snow]

Certainly cooler today and we have just had a sleet shower so the colder air is begining to set in again

Must admit giving what could possibly happen(and i believe will) in the next 48-72hrs it is very quiet on

Here.Understand all the let downs of the past but ATM Met office who are better equipped than us are

Still confident for a Snow event Tues/Wed for NW England and as long as there confident the other models

Can do want they want......Optomistic may be LOL But one thing for shaw if this events comes of as predicted

By the METO then someone in NW England is going to get a huge dump of Snow

C.S

[weatherobsuk]

Still some patches of Snow here and there on the hills, but melting considerably faster with this milder airmass overhead. Just had a shower of Sleet however as a Occluded front passes the region lowering the Freezing Level. MetO and Beeb seem to think some 5-10cm will fall over the Pennines on Tuesday morning as the Warm Front "bumps" into Cooler Air being fed down from the North, only some 48 hours to find out now.

[Liam J]

well the band of showers is moving over here now and its falling as wet snow! temp fell to 1.2c

Edited December 27, 2009 by james12

[cheshire snow]

For anyone who did not see the Countryfile Weather forecast

2 words Bloody Fantastic

Bring it on LOL

C.S

[martinj2]

Just come in-that wind is biting, maybe swinging to the North

[dodge]

For anyone who did not see the Countryfile Weather forecast

2 words Bloody Fantastic

Bring it on LOL

C.S

I missed it, I'll have to catch up on Iplayer.

P.S. Does anyone know were the 'Winter Wonderland' thread went?

Edited December 27, 2009 by dodgeredee

[James M]

I missed it, I'll have to catch up on Iplayer.

P.S. Does anyone know were the 'Winter Wonderland' thread went?

It was unpinned so it sank to the next page. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58867-winter-wonderland/

Quite a lot of melt today, less than 50% snowcover at this level at least, so can no longer count as a day with lying snow, but 10 consecutive days isn't bad going for December!

[dodge]

It was unpinned so it sank to the next page. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58867-winter-wonderland/

Aah, Cheers James! Maybe it will get some fresh contributions by the time the week's over. I don't think we'll know just how far North this band of rain/sleet/snow reaches overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, until it basically shows up on the radar but I expect there will be some showery activity once it leaves us. Hopefully this will be the start of the New Year reload for further cold/snowy weather which the models have been hinting at.

Edited December 27, 2009 by dodgeredee

[Snowmad79]

The models today (up to and not including the 12z's) do show a significant shunt southwards of LP systems so at this point i would have to summise and say the risk of snow will move significantly south and suspect we will be looking futher down the line for sustained easerlies and strong easterly winds to drag showers our way.

Dont for one second think easterlies do not deliver for us in the northwest becuase they most certainly can. Steve Murr's excellent post the other night got me thinking of when I was a youngster in the early 80's and all those classic 2 week snow blasts we used to get here in Oldham. Non of this 1 day notherly / Nwerly toppler lark but snow storms lasting days and weeks at a time rather than 30mins to an 1hr showers we get these days.

Sometimes it got so bad that me and my brother were not allowed out to play in the snow becuase the temperatures and snow storms were so severe and when I used to ask my dad why it was so bad he used to say and was adamant it was becuase " Its an easterly, coming all the way from siberia".

Obviously I was too young to understand all this and when I got olderI became sceptical and was under the impression it was due to northerlies. Which in a sense is probably true since 1998 onwards.

But as Steve said in his post we need to look for that overall holy grail solution of proper easterlies via southern tacking LPs, A greenland high over or around Iceland and a link up to HP over or near Russia becuase it wont matter where you live if this was the case.. Everyone in the country would get pasted becuase of the true easterly source. There are signs of this happening in the models with LP pressure now being progged more to the south and also the runs have been showing that link up I mentioned above. We need to see a continuation of that rather looking and hoping for the snow hit us asap with LPs tracking that little bit futher north.

If it means a longer period of dryer colder weather, then so be it as long as its owrth it in the end!.

Ps. Most of the 6" - 10" snow has melted from up here now and max temp was/is 2.6c !

[snowingtequila]

cold day today, felt it anyway! Heavy wet snow this morning at 10.30am. Also a few flakes after lunch otherwise fine. this gives me hope that more snow is not far away this week and should make it to us.

[meerkat63]

Dont for one second think easterlies do not deliver for us in the northwest becuase they most certainly can.

Absolutely spot on there. In fact for those who would like to see snowfall of a magnitude which could be described as 'out of the ordinary' it is the best direction of the lot. A true easterly - as opposed to NE or SE orientated - is ideal although deviations from this can produce the same result given the right circimstances.

For one thing, with a true easterly snow tends not to be wet snow, temps. are often at or below freezing even during the day and with a wind that means the potential for considerable drifting - something which hardly ever happens from a westerly.

[chris78]

newby here and at the mo the charts are beyond me as are the vastly differing interperatations offered here, although i appreciate and enjoy reading them. So to help me a little if i amto get the best outcome here anf see some snow or at least a good cold snap, when should we expect to see a drop in temp its still mildish here

[Spurry]

The NW radar shows a band of snow (pink precip on chart) heading south coming out of Cumbria and into lancs , can anyone confirm that it is snowing ,or has the radar just gone mad

[meerkat63]

Welcome to the forum - newbie myself although a follower of this site for a few years and of the weather virtually for the entirity of my life so far!

Colder air has been working its way through the region throughout the day and a frost can be expected in many areas of the north west tonight.

Where any potential snow is concerned, the midweek event has been described by some as a forecasters nightmare - with a great deal of uncertainty at this stage with regard to which locations will actually receive snowfall.

Convective snowfall later in the week from showers off the North Sea is anticipated but I would not think about that until the position of the incoming low has finally been sorted out.

[chris78]

thanks winterman thats exactly wanted ill be eagerly watching the temperature drop

thanks winterman thats exactly wanted ill be eagerly watching the temperature drop

thanks winterman thats exactly wanted ill be eagerly watching the temperature drop

[Spurry]

thanks winterman thats exactly wanted ill be eagerly watching the temperature drop

thanks winterman thats exactly wanted ill be eagerly watching the temperature drop

thanks winterman thats exactly wanted ill be eagerly watching the temperature drop

Sorry can you repeat that?

[dodge]

Yep a true sustained Easterly can give some decent snowfall to our side of the Pennines, although obviously the clue is in the title to which parts are mostly favoured. It's worth baring in mind that although the recent cold spell, was setup by an easterly, it wasn't until the winds switched round to the North and then a North Westerly, that we got the most snowfall. Well from a personal point of view that seemed to be the case.

I also remember the snow bonaza's we got in the 80's but likewise i was too young to be interested from what direction the colder weather originated from lol

Edited December 27, 2009 by dodgeredee

[meerkat63]

The NW radar shows a band of snow (pink precip on chart) heading south coming out of Cumbria and into lancs , can anyone confirm that it is snowing ,or has the radar just gone mad

Meto radar also shows shower activity - temp still 2.3c here so not sure if it would snow anyway yet.

It would certainly be interesting to hear any reports from those in Cumbria at the moment.