North West Cold Spell 9

[karyo]

Disagree, looks more or less the same with the magority of the North of England with unfavourable conditions. The first intial approach of the centre of the low still appears roughly the same, to the south of Ireland and after wednesday it does start to sink it if thats what you mean ?

I mean that the 12z is placing the band of heavy precipitation further south than the previous runs did (0z and 6z). The other models have the precipitation even further south, so more central areas of the country have the heaviest falls.

Still waiting for the ECM of course...

Karyo

[V for Very Cold]

Metcheck just updated oh how i wish they were acurate

You are due over 20cm Tomorrow night and get this for Northwich from Tues Night throught to Wed night non stop

Heavy Snow and upto 39cm by the time the front goes

C.S

really now that would be more than a pleasant surprise :lol:

[Snowmad79]

I mean that the 12z is placing the band of heavy precipitation further south than the previous runs did (0z and 6z). The other models have the precipitation even further south, so more central areas of the country have the heaviest falls.

Still waiting for the ECM of course...

Karyo

Okie dokie mate i see what you mean

06z

12z

Lets hope that trend continues becuase we could then skim a few snowy showers rather than getting soaked.

[Weather-history]

The latest Manchester Airport METAR goes for rain and sleet

long-TAF: EGCC 281703Z 2818/2924 VRB03KT 8000 FEW035 BECMG 2818/2821 3000 BR BECMG 2903/2906 09010KT 8000 NSW PROB40 2909/2915 9999 BECMG 2914/2917 BKN010 TEMPO 2915/2924 RA PROB40 TEMPO 2917/2924 4000 RASN BKN007

Temporary

from 29 at 15 UTC to 29 at 24 UTC

rain

Probability 40% :

Temporary

from 29 at 17 UTC to 29 at 24 UTC

Visibility 4000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 700 ft

rain snow

[Bartlett Low]

I'm sure most of us have seen similar set-ups to these- what usually happens is that the band just fails to reach us or just about does, bringing light precipitation only. I'd say Cheshire might get something out of this possibly..

[Snowmad79]

The latest Manchester Airport METAR goes for rain and sleet

long-TAF: EGCC 281703Z 2818/2924 VRB03KT 8000 FEW035 BECMG 2818/2821 3000 BR BECMG 2903/2906 09010KT 8000 NSW PROB40 2909/2915 9999 BECMG 2914/2917 BKN010 TEMPO 2915/2924 RA PROB40 TEMPO 2917/2924 4000 RASN BKN007

Temporary

from 29 at 15 UTC to 29 at 24 UTC

rain

Probability 40% :

Temporary

from 29 at 17 UTC to 29 at 24 UTC

Visibility 4000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 700 ft

rain snow

Thnx for that Mr D, I feel there will be alot of raincoasts and wellies coming tomorrow rather than sledges.

@ chris - The band is indeed visable on the meto radar now and a huge band it is too.

You can view the actuall low pressure system it all its glory here >>

Sat24

[chris78]

Thanks snowmad.

Even as a new member i've noticed the southern bias on model thread.......I have a question. is the current exitement normal for netweather or are we seeing someting unusual and as big as some are suggesting on said model threads? (I dont necassarily mean big for the north west but just an event the likes of which we havnt seen for a long time although id love it to involve us)

I am not neccassarily asking specifically about midweek but this system as a whole is it really potentially as massive as some feel?

[Weather-history]

The Birmingham and Nottingham METARS do mention snow though.

[Snowmad79]

Thanks snowmad.

Even as a new member i've noticed the southern bias on model thread.......I have a question. is the current exitement normal for netweather or are we seeing someting unusual and as big as some are suggesting on said model threads? (I dont necassarily mean big for the north west but just an event the likes of which we havnt seen for a long time although id love it to involve us)

I am not neccassarily asking specifically about midweek but this system as a whole is it really potentially as massive as some feel?

I think the magority of the exitment comes from the fact that during winter, time after time the model watchers are grasping at longterm cold shots and hoping they come into the reliable with mild dominated weather ( clutching at straws they call it). This year were seeing an abundance of never ending cold episodes and mild weather is becoming a rareity this winter which in itself is exiting and the fact weve already seen decent amounts of snow and freezing days already this winter and the fact theres still another 2-3 months left of winter adds to that thrill. This is turning out to be a winter of times pre 1998 tbh.

As for this cold event the main thrill is the fact of the amount precipitaion that could possibly fall as snow in a relatively short space of time compaired to the last event which was a gradual build up, this event could see places getting upto 50cm ( 1 and half feet) of snow in again a short space of time. Also the decent wind speeds asociated with this event would build up significant drifts. So there again another blast of winters past.

[damianslaw]

Its a very difficult call at this stage to say which parts of the region if any at all are likely to see snow tomorrow and into Wednesday. The consensus at the moment is for the heaviest precipitation to remain over mid/north east wales and north west midlands and southern peak district, where the heaviest precipitation occurs will also be where we see greatest evaporative cooling so the chances of snow at low levels where this occurs looks quite high, conversely places around the perimeter of the heaviest stuff may only see sleety wet stuff, dewpoints don't look condicive for low level snow in said regions.

It will become much clearer tomorrow just how far north the precipitation is likely to get, it could easily envelope much of the region even extending into South Cumbria (I hope) for a time overnight into Wednesday, thicknesses and dewpoints will be condicive for low level snow here I imagine.

Wednesday will see the colder air filtering over the north of the region as the 528 dam thickness line begins to migrate southwards, snow showers look the order of the day for the Pennines.

[chris78]

thanks again that gives me some perspective

[karyo]

The Birmingham and Nottingham METARS do mention snow though.

This means shows where the heaviest precipitation is expected - further south than our region. So we might get sleet, while further south they get heavy snowfall!

The ECM precipitation charts show our region getting only light precipitation and generally the further southwest you are the better.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Karyo

[chris78]

i take it from the lack of activity in here most feel were destined to miss out mid week, and with later falls coming from convective easterlies likely we miss out then too?

[AderynCoch]

The cold is certainly back now. Barely made it above freezing today, with thick fog well into the afternoon.

Fingers crossed for tomorrow onwards...

[snowdrifter]

The cold is certainly back now. Barely made it above freezing today, with thick fog well into the afternoon.

Fingers crossed for tomorrow onwards...

I guess there's no chance of convective activity off the Irish Sea?? Having used to live near the Malvern Hills near Worcester, I'm a bit envious of where I used to live! Looks like cold and dry for most of the NW.

[karyo]

Yes, it looks like any PPN that reaches the area tomorrow will be light and of rain/sleet/wet snow, then later in the week it's all about the E Anglia/SE for convection from the East.

Re: later in the week, I would expect eastern and northern Scotland, maybe northeast England too, to do really well under a northeasterly flow. Any snow showers will probably struggle to get here, unless a trough forms.

Karyo

[dodge]

Thankfully I'm at work tomorrow, so I'll be too busy to radar watch all day lol - like others have said, I'm not really expecting much from the southerly low. Mind you when it pulls back down south, we could get some pretty chilly winds coming in from the East. Who knows what the end of the week could bring, once we get some really cold air over us.

[damianslaw]

Best chances for low level snow cover later in the week will come in the form of any troughs that may develop in the north easterly flow, these will be sudden developments and I can see much potential. Further ahead signs that a more north westerly/northerly flow will develop as we see low pressure tracking down the North Sea, it this does occur then we will be in the firing line for heavy snow, so plenty of scope for snow later in the week and into the following week I say for the NW, and who knows some may get lucky tomorrow and Wednesday.

[HotCuppa]

Currently have a heavy glazed frost was -5.6C now we are upto -0.1C quite a jump in just a few hours .Dew point rose quite a bit too, now its -0.9C looks like warm air is once again arriving in the region.

There may well be some heavy snow from this but its prolly going to be nothing short of heavy rain showers with a wintry flavour perphaps, not sure if its going to be dry and bitterly cold, my stats are showing its warming up along with the wet bulb and dewpoints..not a good sign at only 2.53am, at the rate of temp, wb and dp climb its going to be well past marginal before 4am at this rate.

backtrack the warnings this morning where ice for the whole of nothern england my question was answered.

EDIT: 3.30am

Temp now is 0.5C and rising

Dew Point -0.3C rising

not good signs if it's meant to snow, already on marginal.

Edit 6.25am

Temp now is 1.1C and rising

Dew Point -0.1C Rising slowly

Edited December 29, 2009 by HotCuppa

[HotCuppa]

I guess there's no chance of convective activity off the Irish Sea?? Having used to live near the Malvern Hills near Worcester, I'm a bit envious of where I used to live! Looks like cold and dry for most of the NW.

If there is any snow its going to be convective. Nothing else it can be from this setup.

[Snowmad79]

Well that was the weirdest journey home from the nightshift ive had. Hard frost during the night, As i got closer to home I noticed the Damp Fog has left moisture on all the trees and had frozen and becuase of the harsh wind all you could here was an eiry Jingling noise of all the frozen branches. The moisture in the fog itsself has started to freeze and its like a ice dust storm outside now. It was going in my eyes and what not and was that fine i wouldnt call it freezing rain, wouldnt call it graupel it was just absolutely fine ice dust.

Very strange but a very very bitter easterly indeed.

Theres no ppn over the nw on the radars yet were experiencing an Ice dust storm ( thats the only way i can describe it). I dont get it.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Snowmad79

[HotCuppa]

Best chances for low level snow cover later in the week will come in the form of any troughs that may develop in the north easterly flow, these will be sudden developments and I can see much potential. Further ahead signs that a more north westerly/northerly flow will develop as we see low pressure tracking down the North Sea, it this does occur then we will be in the firing line for heavy snow, so plenty of scope for snow later in the week and into the following week I say for the NW, and who knows some may get lucky tomorrow and Wednesday.

Umm am not convinced that any ne is going to deliver, you could be right..first it has to get past the peninnes and it didn't do much of a good job about this the last time out, baring in mind just how much moisture is being carried and working out just how cold it will be. Wouldn't be the first time it got to cold to snow, infact here it happens quite often. I am wondering more about polar lows forming later in the week from the nw.

Could be the calm before the storm, GFS now have the low staying out in the western approaches now but still too far south to really do anything for us. You never know though. Thing is it's hardly that cold to begin with..temps have risen considerabley over the last 4 hours or so. It's now a waiting game, if the precip started now all we'd get is heavy rain..we need a brisk cold wind to cool the dp and temps back, since we are over the marginal line now. Interestingly we have snow falling as far north as the northern welsh mountains. The thing I am seriously concerned about at this moment in time is the increase in temps...maybe the colder air will kick in soon..coz that snow isn't really that far away..with more heavier precip behind it too.

The GFS clearly thinks any snow in the north west will be pretty much a brief affair around Jan 1, and as it stands possibly just showers but if we can keep this easterly going there is another potentially favourable shout with significant snow later on during the week from the nw..temps should be sufficiently cold enough for us not to have to worry about the irish sea destroying the chance...this is still quite a bit away though and it may not happen. The GFS is throwing all kinds of permutations out at the moment and its doing a fairly atrocious job this winter.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ interesting to watch what happens.

Edited December 29, 2009 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

Well the PPN will reach the NW today but falling as a wintry mix accross the region

Oh well we can now look forward to the NE/E later this week but dont expect Snow

Especially the further South and west you come from the pennines

If cold nights and sunny days floats your boat you are in luck

If you want snow then for quite a few in this region it will be a no-no or yet more DOWNGRADES a few hours before an event

C.S

[Snowmad79]

Umm am not convinced that any ne is going to deliver, you could be right..first it has to get past the peninnes and it didn't do much of a good job about this the last time out, baring in mind just how much moisture is being carried and working out just how cold it will be. Wouldn't be the first time it got to cold to snow, infact here it happens quite often. I am wondering more about polar lows forming later in the week from the nw.

Right now I am far from impressed since we have virtually blown the chance for snow as I write (temps have increased quite a bit from 2.15am when we hit -5.6C) And as I stated yesterday morning I knew there wouldn't be anything from this system but people kept insisting..fact is the low is going to be that much further south than even I expected, with perhaps the furthest extent on it's northern edge to the central midlands / east wales. It's not this setup I am looking at but the one I have been watching for about 3 days now, with where this low will end up and just how much colder air it will drag in.

The GFS clearly thinks any snow in the north west will be pretty much a brief affair around Jan 1, and as it stands possibly just showers but if we can keep this easterly going there is another potentially favourable shout with significant snow later on during the week from the nw..temps should be sufficiently cold enough for us not to have to worry about the irish sea destroying the chance...this is still quite a bit away though and it may not happen. The GFS is throwing all kinds of permutations out at the moment and its doing a fairly atrocious job this winter.

Agree about the GFS, i think I said in the past week how pathetic and sporadic its been sine they switched the main model run, before then I was keeping a sensible outlook and was generally easy to follow but now as you say its constantly all over the place. And this mornings run is no different in that respect its retrogressing the GL high way into canada then disolves it. Im not impressed with that run.

However the ECM is looking much better up to 192, does look a little dodgy with its retrogression west of the GL high but then moves it eastward again. The northerly it shows is looking pretty mean and could well be something for us northwesterners to look forward too. I guess the best thing about the ECM is the fact it keeps the Block in place throughout the run and basically slows the northerly evolving into a easterly as the low pressure drop into the irish sea. Could be a snowfest if that run pulled off.

[Snowmad79]

Re: later in the week, I would expect eastern and northern Scotland, maybe northeast England too, to do really well under a northeasterly flow. Any snow showers will probably struggle to get here, unless a trough forms.

Karyo

mmm this is what many said last time including IB, despite me saying there would be the chance the showers would cross the penines and looked what happened .. quite a few of us got snow showers and my area ended up with 3 or 4 cm. The winds are already stronger now than there were during the whole of that last cold snap. Dont rule anything out is my motto.( check my sig below for proof)

Edited December 29, 2009 by Snowmad79