North West Cold Spell 9

[HotCuppa]

Agree about the GFS, i think I said in the past week how pathetic and sporadic its been sine they switched the main model run, before then I was keeping a sensible outlook and was generally easy to follow but now as you say its constantly all over the place. And this mornings run is no different in that respect its retrogressing the GL high way into canada then disolves it. Im not impressed with that run.

However the ECM is looking much better up to 192, does look a little dodgy with its retrogression west of the GL high but then moves it eastward again. The northerly it shows is looking pretty mean and could well be something for us northwesterners to look forward too. I guess the best thing about the ECM is the fact it keeps the Block in place throughout the run and basically slows the northerly evolving into a easterly as the low pressure drop into the irish sea. Could be a snowfest if that run pulled off.

I think we need to remain cautious with the ECM especially medium and long range regarding these setups, though it has been pretty much accurate. Must say tho it botched up the start of the cold spell and it did it again with this system..though it could prove itself over the coming days naturally.

Interesting couple of days coming up, can't wait for the nice colder temps for me that more about winter than snow (though yes I want feet of the stuff for the kids), it's nice when systems like this throw up anomolies but frustrating at the same time.

mmm this is what many said last time including IB, despite me saying there would be the chance the showers would cross the penines and looked what happened .. quite a few of us got snow showers and my area ended up with 3 or 4 cm. The winds are already stronger now than there were during the whole of that last cold snap. Dont rule anything out is my motto.( check my sig below for proof)

Those showers didn't actually get much farther than your own area to be fair..you where getting the snow from the run off from the peninnes imo. We had to wait for the sw to give us something from a northerly and thats where our snow came from. 9/10 NE never deliver, but definitely a case of where you live though

[Snowmad79]

I think we need to remain cautious with the ECM especially medium and long range regarding these setups, though it has been pretty much accurate. Must say tho it botched up the start of the cold spell and it did it again with this system..though it could prove itself over the coming days naturally.

Interesting couple of days coming up, can't wait for the nice colder temps for me that more about winter than snow (though yes I want feet of the stuff for the kids), it's nice when systems like this throw up anomolies but frustrating at the same time.

Personally i think they were miss interpreted tbh and biased thoughts expected colder HPA's to be more southerly than they were actually progged. In my mind the initial approach of the low was pretty much similar on each model and people just expected a southward shunt to be the order of the day. The low would have had to have made a more southerly approach on all models to start with in order for the cold 850s to really dig south. We are only just around the -5 850 temp now... imagine the temps and marginality futher south with this system. Like i said last night .. alot of wellies and rain coast coming out today.. maybe the odd boat if it gets that bad lol.

Those showers didn't actually get much farther than your own area to be fair..you where getting the snow from the run off from the peninnes imo. We had to wait for the sw to give us something from a northerly and thats where our snow came from. 9/10 NE never deliver, but definitely a case of where you live though

Quite a few around the NW reported showers but nothing that settled accept for some of us and yes being on the edge of the pennines help a little lol.

[HotCuppa]

Personally i think they were miss interpreted tbh and biased thoughts expected colder HPA's to be more southerly than they were actually progged. In my mind the initial approach of the low was pretty much similar on each model and people just expected a southward shunt to be the order of the day. The low would have had to have made a more southerly approach on all models to start with in order for the cold 850s to really dig south. We are only just around the -5 850 temp now... imagine the temps and marginality futher south with this system. Like i said last night .. alot of wellies and rain coast coming out today.. maybe the odd boat if it gets that bad lol.

Quite a few around the NW reported showers but nothing that settled accept for some of us and yes being on the edge of the pennines help a little lol.

Light snow being reported in Chester (more wet stuff than real snow)

Spot on though with people misinterpreting the system, more wishful thinking than anything else. I pretty much nailed it head on when I said rain yesterday, but no one would have it instead it had to be snow, like you said above the upper air is barely even -5C. More a case of sleety showers along the south of the region and more like heavy persistant rain on the coast (crosby, formby, southport) not seeing much forward movement at the moment with radar...looks like we will get the precip in Hale (we always get something when nwales is hit)

Edited December 29, 2009 by HotCuppa

[Snowmad79]

Light snow being reported in Chester (more wet stuff than real snow)

Thats good news, the meto radar shows the top end of the band heading over them now. Look at track of the ppn on the meto radar it looks more SW to NE than it does on the other radars . I really do wonder ....

[shadowfax]

Thats good news, the meto radar shows the top end of the band heading over them now. Look at track of the ppn on the meto radar it looks more SW to NE than it does on the other radars . I really do wonder ....

I'm sure it's slowly nudging in our direction, fingers crossed. We still have far too much nasty ice/snow lying on the ground here, so maybe some more rain would be a good idea and wash it all away for the next lot - but knowing bacup weather it will be snow if anything.

Shadowfax

[Snowmad79]

I'm sure it's slowly nudging in our direction, fingers crossed. We still have far too much nasty ice/snow lying on the ground here, so maybe some more rain would be a good idea and wash it all away for the next lot - but knowing bacup weather it will be snow if anything.

Shadowfax

More rain ? NO thank you, weve already had what I can only call ice dust storms here this morning, everything is covered slightly and its still frosty so Id imagine it would freeze on the surface and I havent seen the gritters out lately either, even the roads were coverd in thick frost up here so im not sure rain is a good idea right now lol.

[Shaun L]

I detect a damp squib coming up. Temp now 1c , DP 1c and the frost is disappearing quickly.

[martinj2]

I detect a damp squib coming up. Temp now 1c , DP 1c and the frost is disappearing quickly.

Yup-temps in west rising 3.5C Aberdaron, 2.5C Valley

[HotCuppa]

I detect a damp squib coming up. Temp now 1c , DP 1c and the frost is disappearing quickly.

That was always going to be the case on the coast. Temps tho across the region should fall back in the heavier ppn...saying that tho, this band hasn't really moved at all, which is about accurate with yesterday's forecast of central wales and west midlands..with north wales possibly being at its northerly extent with rain elsewhere if the temps dont drop. However I think it would be pretty foolish to rule out snow as a possibility in the south of the region. Freezing rain showing up now nicely around prestatyn

Temps here slight drop to 1C dew point now at 0.3 very marginal but the temps are slowly dropping back again for me.

Edited December 29, 2009 by HotCuppa

[martinj2]

That was always going to be the case on the coast. Temps tho across the region should fall back in the heavier ppn...saying that tho, this band hasn't really moved at all, which is about accurate with yesterday's forecast of central wales and west midlands..with north wales possibly being at its northerly extent with rain elsewhere if the temps dont drop. However I think it would be pretty foolish to rule out snow as a possibility in the south of the region. Freezing rain showing up now nicely around prestatyn

Temps here slight drop to 1C dew point now at 0.3 very marginal but the temps are slowly dropping back again for me.

Yeah I'm copying that slight drop-fraction above 1 here

[trickydicky]

I think people may be concentrating on the wrong things here. This system sneeking up from the south is only bad news in my eyes, we will only see sleet or wet snow from it at best, potentially damaging my precious 13 day old snow cover. However, if it sneeks out the way without giving us much precipitation we will be into a potent north easterly with a potential trough, like last time, and then a northerly backing north westerly, and we know what that gave last time. This stuff coming up from the south is like having to have a really bad starter, say garlic mushrooms, before you can get stuck into the fillet steak and sticky toffee pudding.

[martinj2]

I think people may be concentrating on the wrong things here. This system sneeking up from the south is only bad news in my eyes, we will only see sleet or wet snow from it at best, potentially damaging my precious 13 day old snow cover. However, if it sneeks out the way without giving us much precipitation we will be into a potent north easterly with a potential trough, like last time, and then a northerly backing north westerly, and we know what that gave last time. This stuff coming up from the south is like having to have a really bad starter, say garlic mushrooms, before you can get stuck into the fillet steak and sticky toffee pudding.

In Mersyside we'd be made up with a bad starter-in our restaraunt, the main course is always off!

[Chrissy]

I think people may be concentrating on the wrong things here. This system sneeking up from the south is only bad news in my eyes, we will only see sleet or wet snow from it at best, potentially damaging my precious 13 day old snow cover. However, if it sneeks out the way without giving us much precipitation we will be into a potent north easterly with a potential trough, like last time, and then a northerly backing north westerly, and we know what that gave last time. This stuff coming up from the south is like having to have a really bad starter, say garlic mushrooms, before you can get stuck into the fillet steak and sticky toffee pudding.

Yeah we still have snow cover after 13 days too, and like you say the easterly and north westerly both delivered last time. We had the most snow in my area for over 30 years.

Fingers crossed again and good luck to everyone else.

[HotCuppa]

Yeah we still have snow cover after 13 days too, and like you say the easterly and north westerly both delivered last time. We had the most snow in my area for over 30 years.

Fingers crossed again and good luck to everyone else.

they would deliver because you have nothing blocking you like the peninnes you also have high terrain. Is this going to get as far as cumbria? it will be lucky to get as far as north merseyside if you ask me. Its actually stalled over chester and north wales mountains.

Infact I can't see anything at all coming from this, just got back in after doing some grocery shopping, I cant believe how warm it actually feels out there currently 2.7C now and rising.

For those panicking about their 13 days snow, be thankful you got more than a couple of showers, we are still starved rotten down here for snow..4 inches is just frankly shocking in over 20 odd years.

you got no chance of this hitting your region, for a start the system just isnt progressed far enough north for that to happen and more importantly the fabled cold temps..what cold temps? north wales temps rising, merseyside temps rising, preston temps rising.

Edited December 29, 2009 by HotCuppa

[chris78]

they would deliver because you have nothing blocking you like the peninnes you also have high terrain. Is this going to get as far as cumbria? it will be lucky to get as far as north merseyside if you ask me. Its actually stalled over chester and north wales mountains.

Infact I can't see anything at all coming from this, just got back in after doing some grocery shopping, I cant believe how warm it actually feels out there currently 2.7C now and rising.

For those panicking about their 13 days snow, be thankful you got more than a couple of showers, we are still starved rotten down here for snow..4 inches is just frankly shocking in over 20 odd years.

you got no chance of this hitting your region, for a start the system just isnt progressed far enough north for that to happen and more importantly the fabled cold temps..what cold temps? north wales temps rising, merseyside temps rising, preston temps rising.

agreed cant see it possibly getting cold enough.....where is this cold air?

[Snowmad79]

the cold air is over us just about ... thats why its borderline futher south !. As I speak its snowing very very very small icey particles here like it did earlier lol. Its defo not rain either becuase its turning all the wet paths white !

Temp is 1.2c here too but stable

Edited December 29, 2009 by Snowmad79

[HotCuppa]

the cold air is over us just about ... thats why its borderline futher south !. As I speak its snowing very very very small icey particles here like it did earlier lol. Its defo not rain either becuase its turning all the wet paths white !

Temp is 1.2c here too but stable

Are you sure? thats seems a little bit warm for it to be snowing.

I just wanted to add, the wind direction since about 2am this morning has now shifted from the sw..hence why its been warm and has now swung to the east, have to see if it remains there and if it has any influence.

Is the continent cold enough?

Edited December 29, 2009 by HotCuppa

[stewfox]

This stuff coming up from the south is like having to have a really bad starter, say garlic mushrooms, before you can get stuck into the fillet steak and sticky toffee pudding.

Yes down south I'm fed up with Garlic

Even where i work in reading they still have snow on the ground in some places. All I have in North Oxfordshire , green and rain

Not sure why people up north with snow on the ground want garlic just after they have had steak ?

[HotCuppa]

Yes down south I'm fed up with Garlic

Even where i work in reading they still have snow on the ground in some places. All I have in North Oxfordshire , green and rain

Not sure why people up north with snow on the ground want garlic just after they have had steak ?

I think some people are wishing again for the snow if you ask me. Nothing wrong with that if it delivers, but the fact remains the upper air and regional temps are just too warm and low isn't as far north as we'd really like it to be.

Edited December 29, 2009 by HotCuppa

[Snowmad79]

Are you sure? thats seems a little bit warm for it to be snowing.

honestly its like snow dust lol.

[HotCuppa]

honestly its like snow dust lol.

Looks a lot like frost to me lol

[Snowmad79]

Looks a lot like frost to me lol

haha thats the first time ive ever been doubted tut tut. If i didnt look such a pleb id go out and film my self scrapping some up lol

[HotCuppa]

haha thats the first time ive ever been doubted tut tut. If i didnt look such a pleb id go out and film my self scrapping some up lol

lol (just found out you did indeed have a very light snow shower just a very tiny local shower

Light to moderate rain now being reported at winsford cheshire just north of crewe

light rain also being reported in Rhyl

moderate rain Holyhead

Nantwich Light rain

Newcastle Under Lyne light to moderate rain.

Chester is as far north as this thing is going to get its been static for a little while but i am beginning to see that the shower are now more or less light rain/sleet rather than snow even as far south as the midlands. Winds in the north are gradually switching to the ne and e.

Temp here now 3.4C

Edited December 29, 2009 by HotCuppa

[Chrissy]

Are you sure? thats seems a little bit warm for it to be snowing.

During this cold spell we have had big flakes of snow falling while the temp is 4c.

Parameters for Snowfall over land.

1. Low Temperatures 4C and below

2. Low Dewpoints

3. A cold wind flow sourced from either NW through to SE

4. Low heights (Dam line of 528 or below)

5. 850mb temps of -8C or below

6. Low pressure

7. Cooler SSTs for less air modification

8. Cold ground.

[HotCuppa]

ge

During this cold spell we have had big flakes of snow falling while the temp is 4c.

Parameters for Snowfall over land.

1. Low Temperatures 4C and below

2. Low Dewpoints

3. A cold wind flow sourced from either NW through to SE

4. Low heights (Dam line of 528 or below)

5. 850mb temps of -8C or below

6. Low pressure

7. Cooler SSTs for less air modification

8. Cold ground.

actually it can snow as warm as 8C under certain conditions, and in the Rockies lol

Seriously though, this little system thats chugging through right now wont deliever only because we have been stuck in a sw airflow since early this morning (around 2am which at the time the ground was at -5.6C here, by around 630am we where above freezing)..the low is too far south and any snow that does occur will be very marginal and localized as opposed to some huge band of snow arriving. Mostly the temps are too high right now, the ground isn't cold enough and the north sea is tepid at best.

Temp now 3.4C

Dewpoint 1.2C

Both temp and dp rising slowly, we have the cold air over us now.

id take a northerly incursion right about now, forget the north westerly the temps are already too warm it would just make it much worse than it is.

Edited December 29, 2009 by HotCuppa