General Model Output Discussion

[SMU]

I thought id tag this one onto the model output this eve-

Since the advent of the internet & the 'archives' on the forum every year since around 2000- even back in the snowatch days on the BBC forum ( some will remember this) we have all referred to Winters of old, the 63's, 47's, 79's ,85's etc etc- We place these with fond memories close to our hearts & are we are all very quick to post up images of what used to be-

Since the advent of this -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2009/brack/bracka20091216.gif

some 10 days ago where the first pressure rise over greenland developed -this winter has had a whiff of a classic about it-

Weary seasoned posters would have been sceptical about the pattern redeveloping in such a short space of time- especially with such familiarity as the last evolution, however as we edged to Christmas day & now almost beyond we see a potential 'classic' pattern developing- which in my opinion has a BETTER chance of sustaining cold & the UK seeing widespread snow- ( we havent done half bad this time round though)more of that in a moment & the reasons why-

Firstly the evoltion thats being progged for the early part of next week is marginal at best, dont get me wrong we have a chance of something widespread, but as it stands the angle of attack, surface cold ahead of the front & upper air conditions do NOT favour a widespread snow event-

If we take the ECM 120 which seems the middle ground-

We see that the system moving along the channel bears the resemblence & hallmarks of that classic snow event in the making- but we are missing the vital ingredient- HP to our NE...

We have seen a lot of Southerly tracking lows already- both this year & last year- the shallow shortwaves that skip along the coast- however the South & south east have seen rain events from ALL these- even central areas havent favoured much better-

Take this chart for instance from the 8th of Feb this year-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090208.gif

The UK in a cold run of Northerlies & very cold surface air prevailing over the UK- that shortwave undercut some of the UK but the cold got lifted out to quickly for most- it was a quick snow to rain event for nearly all- snow lasting less than 20 mins!!

This has been the plight of the UK for some time-

now look at a couple of classics-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1982/Rrea00119820108.gif JAN 1982- the Irish & welsh should have fond memories here-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960206.gif Widespread snow over the central belt of the UK-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119781230.gif THis lead to one of the most significant blizzards over the UK for many many years-

So what have we learnt-

Undercutting troughs- even if they are elongated require HP DIRECTLY to the NE to force the dry air undercut at the surface- with the only exception being if a shortwave is traversing EAST under a East based iceland block ( again more about that later)

Back to the ECM 120-

The trough over Norway is cutting the supply of cold off from the Scandi region- where the coldest airmass originates from-

Sure we have a cold feed from the East but just not cold enough-

taking the 18z at face value its a total rain event for the UK, taking the ECM at face value its a rain event for most in the South - with snow over the North & west & elevation a great assist here-

Is there still hope for the mid part of next week- well yes- but we will need to be VERY VERY lucky with a quick flip back from the models to a track along the brest peninsula through & out East- even then thats not the end of the story - we will need minimal north sea track as well from an upper air perspective-

Excluding what I think is dodgy outputs this eve I think there is a zone from yorkshire through to wales that does see snow ( mainly away from the East coast), although PERHAPS not as significant as initially touted ( I hope im wrong with that)

This wasnt the reason of this post though really- its the background signal though & for the people that want to decipher things into more detail the finite differences between a Greenland block & Iceland block- Also how the amplification of the jet determines a Northerly over an Easterly- even though the blocking seems to be in the same place- ( & why a circular iceland block favours a Channel low as opposed to a Greenland block which favours a polar low)

The background NH signal is a negative AO which if by now you dont know I will breifly summarise-

High pressure at the pole & low heights forced into the mid lattitudes- by definition this then means that theres LOTS more air coming south out of the pole: in this situation as you will usually have 3 or 4 standing waves along with the higher polar pressure zone- - The eastern sides of the standing waves have huge amounts of COLD air advection moving South & the western sides have lots of warm air advection moving North-

Note:- this is why in negative AO months the UK can be warm as we can still be on the wrong side of any potential blocking-

What we are seeing now at day 5-10 is a rapid change in the modality of the NAO ( after a brief rise ) -

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/nao.png it will appear here in the next few days-

The modality change is showing that Greenland has a rapid rise in Pressure & areas towards the azores will drop pressure- the significance is that the AO is dropping to 3/4 Standard deviations below zero & the NAO is heading that way-

this is the PERFECT menu of cold for NW europe-

Teleconnections however do not give us 'local detail'-- local being the United Kingdom- this boils down to what type of blocking actually exists- as there are Many types-

East based NAO, West Based NAO, mid atlantic block, iceland block-....

What we saw develop last week was Clearly a Greenland block- Very central to Greenland---- this & west based Greenland Highs favour the NW UK & Scotland & NI- as they generally end up with NW winds over the UK-

Fax for the 20th- 2009

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2009/brack/bracka20091220.gif

Reanalysis for 9th dec 1981-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1981/Rrea00119811209.gif

Note the central Greenland blocking - almost west based NAO-

note the flow over the UK is generally NW- with the trough also west over scandi-

Going back to last week the reason the pattern loaded to a Northerly & even N.westerly was because of the initial jet profile & the fact that it was VERY amplified North / South-

We got a flow that went directly north up western greenland then returned sharp south southwards over iceland- hence the Northerly flow & how the vortex got shunted to the NE part of the UK-

Also importantly here - note how close the shortwaves got to the southern part of the UK in the southern arm of the jet--- they didnt....

because the Northerly flow kept them a long way South-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2009/brack/bracka20091221.gif

look towards Portugal......

We now though see a different pattern setting up which as I mentioned earlier seems to be the same- but with a couple of key differences-

*) NAO block (high pressure) looks to be positivly tilted & circular as opposed to the squashed sharp North /South oval shape it had last week-

*) at a SLIGHTLY more favourable locale V last week ( we are talking more EAST based)

*) Pressure core looks to be centred towards the SE coast of Greenland

*) THe jet flow off the states is less amplified over the top & doesnt look to cut a sharp gradient back directly south through iceland like it did before-

What does this all mean-

Look at these 3 charts-

ECM 168-

GFS 168-http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-168.png?18

GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN at 144-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m6.gif

They all agree on a curved East ISH based NAO block that is in closer proximity to Iceland than we have seen in many a year...

What does this all mean-

It means the background signal for cold for the UK is developing at around 96-144, once completed it will force the pattern to where we want it & because of THIS angled flow of set up- ( note the waeker amplified flow off the states)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-96.png?18 IE more positivly tilted -

the net result will be a more Easterly component in the air as its curving westwards on the southern side of the high as opposed to southwards before-

this will eventually deliver for everyone, with a HIGH chance of a snow event coming up from the South west into Southern UK- this is why both models- ECM & GFS are modelling this-

GFS 192-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-216.png?18 notice the block centring more over Iceland- ICELAND BLOCK= Perfect for the UK-

ECM-

Almost an Iceland block- but the key is the curved flow over the atlantic- the shortwave will roll & Spin eastwards because its pathway is being vented & circulated from inflow on the NE quadrant > NE >SW & inflow from the SW quadrant >SW> NE-

In Summary then-

I think we are on the eve of a very special period in UK weather- MAYBE a classic in the making, I think the classic charts come though in the latter half of next week towards the weekend with an attack from the NE & the south west-

If we get a wdespread snow event from the inital low pressure tracking along the channel then treat it as a bonus for the UK.............

fingers crossed this could be the one-

If we get the iceland block I would rate a higher chance of seeing a temporary link up with a Siberian /arctic type high pressure that has been lurking all winter-

S

Edited December 26, 2009 by Steve Murr

[SnowBallz]

BRILLIANT stuff Steve, enjoyed reading all that analysis :lol:

[BristolBaggie]

I thought id tag this one onto the model output this eve-

Since the advent of the internet & the 'archives' on the forum every year since around 2000- even back in the snowatch days on the BBC forum ( some will remember this) we have all referred to Winters of old, the 63's, 47's, 79's ,85's etc etc- We place these with fond memories close to our hearts & are we are all very quick to post up images of what used to be-

Since the advent of this -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2009/brack/bracka20091216.gif

some 10 days ago where the first pressure rise over greenland developed -this winter has had a whiff of a classic about it-

Weary seasoned posters would have been sceptical about the pattern redeveloping in such a short space of time- especially with such familiarity as the last evolution, however as we edged to Christmas day & now almost beyond we see a potential 'classic' pattern developing- which in my opinion has a BETTER chance of sustaining cold & the UK seeing widespread snow- ( we havent done half bad this time round though)more of that in a moment & the reasons why-

Firstly the evoltion thats being progged for the early part of next week is marginal at best, dont get me wrong we have a chance of something widespread, but as it stands the angle of attack, surface cold ahead of the front & upper air conditions do NOT favour a widespread snow event-

If we take the ECM 120 which seems the middle ground-

We see that the system moving along the channel bears the resemblence & hallmarks of that classic snow event in the making- but we are missing the vital ingredient- HP to our NE...

We have seen a lot of Southerly tracking lows already- both this year & last year- the shallow shortwaves that skip along the coast- however the South & south east have seen rain events from ALL these- even central areas havent favoured much better-

Take this chart for instance from the 8th of Feb this year-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090208.gif

The UK in a cold run of Northerlies & very cold surface air prevailing over the UK- that shortwave undercut some of the UK but the cold got lifted out to quickly for most- it was a quick snow to rain event for nearly all- snow lasting less than 20 mins!!

This has been the plight of the UK for some time-

now look at a couple of classics-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1982/Rrea00119820108.gif JAN 1982- the Irish & welsh should have fond memories here-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960206.gif Widespread snow over the central belt of the UK-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119781230.gif THis lead to one of the most significant blizzards over the UK for many many years-

So what have we learnt-

Undercutting troughs- even if they are elongated require HP DIRECTLY to the NE to force the dry air undercut at the surface- with the only exception being if a shortwave is traversing EAST under a East based iceland block ( again more about that later)

Back to the ECM 120-

The trough over Norway is cutting the supply of cold off from the Scandi region- where the coldest airmass originates from-

Sure we have a cold feed from the East but just not cold enough-

taking the 18z at face value its a total rain event for the UK, taking the ECM at face value its a rain event for most in the South - with snow over the North & west & elevation a great assist here-

Is there still hope for the mid part of next week- well yes- but we will need to be VERY VERY lucky with a quick flip back from the models to a track along the brest peninsula through & out East- even then thats not the end of the story - we will need minimal north sea track as well from an upper air perspective-

Excluding what I think is dodgy outputs this eve I think there is a zone from yorkshire through to wales that does see snow ( mainly away from the East coast), although PERHAPS not as significant as initially touted ( I hope im wrong with that)

This wasnt the reason of this post though really- its the background signal though & for the people that want to decipher things into more detail the finite differences between a Greenland block & Iceland block- Also how the amplification of the jet determines a Northerly over an Easterly- even though the blocking seems to be in the same place- ( & why a circular iceland block favours a Channel low as opposed to a Greenland block which favours a polar low)

The background NH signal is a negative AO which if by now you dont know I will breifly summarise-

High pressure at the pole & low heights forced into the mid lattitudes- by definition this then means that theres LOTS more air coming south out of the pole: in this situation as you will usually have 3 or 4 standing waves along with the higher polar pressure zone- - The eastern sides of the standing waves have huge amounts of COLD air advection moving South & the western sides have lots of warm air advection moving North-

Note:- this is why in negative AO months the UK can be warm as we can still be on the wrong side of any potential blocking-

What we are seeing now at day 5-10 is a rapid change in the modality of the NAO ( after a brief rise ) -

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/nao.png it will appear here in the next few days-

The modality change is showing that Greenland has a rapid rise in Pressure & areas towards the azores will drop pressure- the significance is that the AO is dropping to 3/4 Standard deviations below zero & the NAO is heading that way-

this is the PERFECT menu of cold for NW europe-

Teleconnections however do not give us 'local detail'-- local being the United Kingdom- this boils down to what type of blocking actually exists- as there are Many types-

East based NAO, West Based NAO, mid atlantic block, iceland block-....

What we saw develop last week was Clearly a Greenland block- Very central to Greenland---- this & west based Greenland Highs favour the NW UK & Scotland & NI- as they generally end up with NW winds over the UK-

Fax for the 20th- 2009

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2009/brack/bracka20091220.gif

Reanalysis for 9th dec 1981-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1981/Rrea00119811209.gif

Note the central Greenland blocking - almost west based NAO-

note the flow over the UK is generally NW- with the trough also west over scandi-

Going back to last week the reason the pattern loaded to a Northerly & even N.westerly was because of the initial jet profile & the fact that it was VERY amplified North / South-

We got a flow that went directly north up western greenland then returned sharp south southwards over iceland- hence the Northerly flow & how the vortex got shunted to the NE part of the UK-

Also importantly here - note how close the shortwaves got to the southern part of the UK in the southern arm of the jet--- they didnt....

because the Northerly flow kept them a long way South-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2009/brack/bracka20091221.gif

look towards Portugal......

We now though see a different pattern setting up which as I mentioned earlier seems to be the same- but with a couple of key differences-

*) NAO block (high pressure) looks to be positivly tilted & circular as opposed to the squashed sharp North /South oval shape it had last week-

*) at a SLIGHTLY more favourable locale V last week ( we are talking more EAST based)

*) Pressure core looks to be centred towards the SE coast of Greenland

*) THe jet flow off the states is less amplified over the top & doesnt look to cut a sharp gradient back directly south through iceland like it did before-

What does this all mean-

Look at these 3 charts-

ECM 168-

GFS 168-http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-168.png?18

GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN at 144-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m6.gif

They all agree on a curved East ISH based NAO block that is in closer proximity to Iceland than we have seen in many a year...

What does this all mean-

It means the background signal for cold for the UK is developing at around 96-144, once completed it will force the pattern to where we want it & because of THIS angled flow of set up- ( note the waeker amplified flow off the states)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-96.png?18 IE more positivly tilted -

the net result will be a more Easterly component in the air as its curving westwards on the southern side of the high as opposed to southwards before-

this will eventually deliver for everyone, with a HIGH chance of a snow event coming up from the South west into Southern UK- this is why both models- ECM & GFS are modelling this-

GFS 192-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-216.png?18 notice the block centring more over Iceland- ICELAND BLOCK= Perfect for the UK-

ECM-

Almost an Iceland block- but the key is the curved flow over the atlantic- the shortwave will roll & Spin eastwards because its pathway is being vented & circulated from inflow on the NE quadrant > NE >SW & inflow from the SW quadrant >SW> NE-

In Summary then-

I think we are on the eve of a very special period in UK weather- MAYBE a classic in the making, I think the classic charts come though in the latter half of next week towards the weekend with an attack from the NE & the south west-

If we get a wdespread snow event from the inital low pressure tracking along the channel then treat it as a bonus for the UK.............

fingers crossed this could be the one-

If we get the iceland block I would rate a higher chance of seeing a temporary link up with a Siberian /arctic type high pressure that has been lurking all winter-

S

Steve have you been talking to the Daily Express again ? !! lol.

Sorry very off topic

[danm]

I thought id tag this one onto the model output this eve-

Since the advent of the internet & the 'archives' on the forum every year since around 2000- even back in the snowatch days on the BBC forum ( some will remember this) we have all referred to Winters of old, the 63's, 47's, 79's ,85's etc etc- We place these with fond memories close to our hearts & are we are all very quick to post up images of what used to be-

Brilliantly informative post, especially for someone like me who is just learning what exactly to look out for beyond the blatantly obvious. Let's hope it all pans out in the way you are describing. We are long overdue a classic winter. Me being one month shy of 24, the only real severe cold spell i can remember is Feb '91. Feb '09 was the closest we've got since then down here in the SE, but not close enough.

Thanks Steve!

Edited December 26, 2009 by danm

[SMU]

Brilliantly informative post, especially for someone like me who is just learning what exactly to look out for beyond the blatantly obvious. Let's hope it all pans out in the way you are describing. We are long overdue a classic winter. Me being one month shy of 24, the only real severe cold spell i can remember is Feb '91. Feb '09 was the closest we've got since then down here in the SE, but not close enough.

Thanks Steve!

thanks guys- Ive just unearthed this statistic on Eastern US- ( BTW the AO was around -5 on the 22nd of dec)

5/7 (71%) cases in which the AO fell to -4.000 or below in December saw the AO remain depressed or tank following a brief push into positive territory. Those winters were 1962-63, 1968-69, 1976-77, 1978-79, and 1995-96.

Lets hope we make it 6/8

S

[Optimus Prime]

Well I'd take all of those winters Steve. 95/96 wasn't anything special here.

It's interesting all Decembers in those periods were below 4c.

1962 1.8c

1968 3.0c

1976 2.0c

1978 3.9c

1995 2.3c

2009 3.4c?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

thanks guys- Ive just unearthed this statistic on Eastern US- ( BTW the AO was around -5 on the 22nd of dec)

5/7 (71%) cases in which the AO fell to -4.000 or below in December saw the AO remain depressed or tank following a brief push into positive territory. Those winters were 1962-63, 1968-69, 1976-77, 1978-79, and 1995-96.

Lets hope we make it 6/8

S

The signs are looking good!

Well I'd take all of those winters Steve. 95/96 wasn't anything special here.

It's interesting all Decembers in those periods were below 4c.

1962 1.8c

1968 3.0c

1976 2.0c

1978 3.9c

1995 2.3c

2009 3.4c?

What was the Jan and Feb CET for those winters?

[Optimus Prime]

The signs are looking good!

What was the Jan and Feb CET for those winters?

1963

Jan -2.1c

Feb -0.7c

1969

Jan 5.5c

Feb 1.0c

1977

Jan 2.8c

Feb 5.2c

1979

Jan -0.4c

Feb 1.2c

1996

Jan 4.3c

Feb 2.5c

Our closest call IMO is 1976/1977 or 1978/1979...take your pick. Should also be said 1977 although not that cold was an exceptionally snowy month for Scotland.

Oh and also didn't 1977 mark the event for that huge snowstorm in the US?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Lakes_Blizzard_of_1977

Yup.

Edited December 26, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[mezzacyclone]

perfect end to xmas day mr murr woulda been an award winning post of sheer magnificence if portrayed via one of your old videos ;}

The more Greenland waa the better? or am I being obtuse under "single malt" influence? great model days regardless mtf as always chums

[Mikel Nimbus]

Fantastic summation by Steve. The different blocking setups explanation was 10/10.

Edited December 26, 2009 by Mikel Nimbus

[Duane S.]

Great post earlier by SM. Thanks for taking the time to make such a well laid out and informative contribution Steve.

Regards the Arctic Oscillation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Now that it has literally gone off the scale, does anybody know where to find the actual daily figure? We know it's sub -4 but that's about it...

[Duane S.]

Interesting...

[anvilhead]

erm..

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn842.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn844.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn8417.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn964.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

Bingo ??? Surprise

Surely I must be missing something - thats a bloody snowfest 3.5 days away!

[yamkin]

[Methuselah]

Thanks for the info Mr Murr. What a great post to wake-up to!

[Frosty.]

The 00z runs look rather wintry this morning

Easterly Alert

Next week looks like becoming very cold with snow showers and more persistent snow, strengthening NE'ly winds backing E'ly to SE'ly later, drifting snow could become an issue and frosts could become severe and penetrating with a very high wind chill factor, that is how I would sum up the gfs, ecm and ukmo 00z.

[Louise]

Interesting...

Could you maybe explain why it is interesting? It would be nice to get some form of explanation in these types of posts for those of us who have less understanding of the charts!

And thank you Steve for such an informative post.

Edited December 26, 2009 by Louise

[tinybill]

well new years day look a bit white!!!

[snowmackem]

well new years day look a bit white!!!

LOL, skiing on the Chilterns anyone? If that comes off Southern counties can expect massive disrupption with snowfall, while the North locks up in the freezer. Lucky (or not?) it's not a work day for most. Plenty of football matched off though !

Karl

[tinybill]

LOL, skiing on the Chilterns anyone? If that comes off Southern counties can expect massive disrupption with snowfall, while the North locks up in the freezer. Lucky (or not?) it's not a work day for most. Plenty of football matched off though !

Karl

as long as its all gone monday but looking at the models its here for at least 2 weeks lets hope the councils are ready this time!!!

[West is Best]

Excellent post by Steve. Full of facts, backup, clear explanation etc. Superb and very encouraging. My one very minor minor quibble is to point out that here in this part we had stunning snowfall from boundary snow last winter - the heaviest snowfall for 20 years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/devon/content/image_galleries/snow_chaos_gallery.shtml

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Exeter-Devon-Snow-Hundreds-Trapped-In-Cars-As-Weather-Worsens/Article/200902115217700?lpos=UK_News_Article_Related_Content_Region_11&lid=ARTICLE_15217700_Exeter%2C_Devon_Snow%3A_Hundreds_Trapped_In_Cars_As_Weather_Worsens

In many ways this just emphasises the point. The track of the low is critical. Plymouth saw no snow, whereas in Okehampton there was a foot. In a marginal situation elevation also helps. We're at 400ft ASL. The actual coast to our north, around Bude, saw rain.

There was also a memorable boundary snow event a couple years ago: the one where TEITS (Dave) so memorably put up a Youtube video for me! (Anyone got the link?)

The 0z runs are fabulous. The UKMO has the track much further south. The GFS is an actual mild outlier at the critical period, and yet is STILL good. The ensemble mean is fantastic. ECM is very good. GEM is the unquestioned stand-out run though: quite fantastic sustained cold. We would do well not to ignore GEM these days. It's performing well.

The one disappointment will be the FI breakdown showing on some models, particularly the way the easterly insipidly turns to a southerly. We'll certainly need to keep an eye on that and the reasons for it (breakdown of the block as well as the jet pattern Steve mentioned pertaining pre-Christmas).

Very very interesting times. I think next week will see significant snowfall.

[Troubleatmill]

ECM isnt good this morning, still looks good up to t120 but then the SW over norway gets pulled back round and links up with the low to our southwest! ends up with most of us having milder southerlies or southeasterly's! were not there yet

Edited December 26, 2009 by arron123

[Duane S.]

Could you maybe explain why it is interesting? It would be nice to get some form of explanation in these types of posts for those of us who have less understanding of the charts!

And thank you Steve for such an informative post.

Sorry, it was early/late when I posted that

Well it looks a lot more promising than the previous GFS run and the METO (the 00z is an improvement on their 12z for this period). The cold air gets a fair bit further South come mid next week according to the 00z, there would be big dumpings of snow in the South of the UK IF that were to come off.

Edited December 26, 2009 by s4lancia

[snow drift]

as long as its all gone monday but looking at the models its here for at least 2 weeks lets hope the councils are ready this time!!!

Your optimism is admirable.

The people in the south will need to be patient. This will move from the north and will be slow moving I feel.

To the poster who said that down south we have problems with only a couple of inchs of snow. A little stereotypical I feel. But now xmas has been and gone, I would ask our Northern friends to remember, Whippets and Pigeons are not just for Xmas!!!!!!!

[snowmackem]

as long as its all gone monday but looking at the models its here for at least 2 weeks lets hope the councils are ready this time!!!

Slow start back on 4th I think Bill. The way the patterns are falling into place can be thought of as like one of those Chinese "sliding square" puzzles. You could call mild "Modern Winters" the number one square and at the start it is in the bottom left square. The idea is to move it to the top right square. That has happenned too easily in the last few winters. This winter however I think it is going to prove very difficult for the Number One Square to get there, with no jet to help plan it's route. It may get half way across the board occassionally but then find the way is blocked, and could take until March to get there. Fingers crossed eh ?

Karl