General Model Output Discussion

[rich1]

it gets there in the end, is a decent run as far as the building blocks are concerned

just means that we have to wait a bit longer for the snow if we arent in Scotland

remember so long as the greenland high and southerly tracking jet is there, the cold will win in the end

could all end up further south in the end but even if it doesnt, the mild is fighting a losing battle

rare in recent winters, but this isnt a even larger teapot as am sure now Ian Brown seems to be admitting

[pyrotech]

Not even going to worry where the models put that low, or how long it takes to drag cold air over the UK. Its not until we get to 27th that the runs are likely to be in a reliable mood in terms of data. The cold is still there and the lack of data drags it out too much. All we really need to see is a general trend for a cold setup heading towards the uk, the final detail will fall back in place by Sunday / monday. Its not a Downgrade as some call it, its a lower resolution through lack of data in my eyes. i said yesterday that some would choke on their turkey if they looked today. Im only looking coz on my 2nd 15hr night shift.

[rbw]

What I'm looking for are Channel Lows

R

[TEITS]

Not interested in the fax charts now- just because they are modified to suit a model doesnt mean to say they are right- wait for the T24 + 36 fax...

ngt

Steve

Steve makes a valid point here because recently the Fax charts have followed the UKMO. However as we know in their forecasts they have been referring to snow for Midlands/Wales which isn't what the fax charts suggest. This means the Met O are as uncertain about the track of this LP as we are.

Back to the 18Z and although the colder air arrives later I prefer this run. A lovely heart shaped HP over Greenland.

[HotCuppa]

Id actually take the 18z anyway- inline with the UKMo means warmer to start with- but better potential with the Easterlies later- ( I think I mentioned that earlier..)

Ah well- what will be will be...

Not interested in the fax charts now- just because they are modified to suit a model doesnt mean to say they are right- wait for the T24 + 36 fax...

ngt

Steve

I imagine it will be that bit colder, but if this is coming in from the west, with temps now already hitting 4C in the north west all I can see from this is heavy persistant rain, temps modified by the atlantic.

[matt44myst]

hi all,

Just so that I can put some perspective into the current model outputs would anyone be able to tell me which model (of the big three) has performed the best during this current cold spell? Not necessarily the initial 'picking up' of the cold signal but subsequently....

Exciting times and great prospects at the moment though..

Cheers,

Matt

[swfc]

Incredible northern blocking,ties in with GPs post earlier.incredible.

Edited December 25, 2009 by swfc

[Barb]

What I'm looking for are Channel Lows

R

And me, I don't personally care about a greenland high at 240. Channel lows are what delivers the goods for us and it would be dissapointing for a potential major blizzard to vanish at relatively short range. Plenty of time to change I suppose.

Edited December 25, 2009 by Barb

[Supercell]

What I'm looking for are Channel Lows

R

You and me both. We'll have a better idea tomorrow when other models have their say. Although, as pyrotech says, we're in missing data territory. It could all be a lie

[swfc]

And me, I don't personally care about a greenland high at 240. Channel lows are what delivers the goods for us and it would be dissapointing for the chance a major blizzard to vanish at relatively short range. Plenty of time to change I suppose.

Without the blocking the cold spell will be very short lived.Look to the long term and get the cold in place.The snow will follow.

[Frosty.]

The only people who should be moaning about this run should be the ones who prefer mild weather, this GFS 18z is a huge upgrade compared to 24 hours ago with a large block to the northwest, this must be what happens if the gulf stream stopped working, every winter would have charts like these instead of the usual atlantic dross. A brilliant run, especially for the north but then everywhere turning very cold and wintry until at least the first week of 2010 possibly even longer. Loads of snow on this run although the most favoured areas would be northern & eastern uk and frosts would be widespread and severe after the initial milder blip early next week.

Edited December 25, 2009 by Frosty039

[TEITS]

And me, I don't personally care about a greenland high at 240. Channel lows are what delivers the goods for us and it would be dissapointing for a potential major blizzard to vanish at relatively short range. Plenty of time to change I suppose.

I see it the other way round.

If you want to see a prolonged cold spell with future snowfalls then the development of the Greenland HP is very important. Don't forget if you have a Greenland HP already in place then the chance of further LP systems tracking to the S of the UK is always possible. Some members need to look at the wider picture rather than will it snow!

As for the 18Z and to be honest if that run came off we would all be desperate for mild weather. What is incredible is +384 only takes us to the 10th Jan!!

[cold snap]

I think the 18Z will get there eventually regarding the cold but i still prefer if it has the low that bit further south like the ecm and previous GFS runs have been showing.

Be interesting where the op runs fits in with the ensembles and it does show how it can all change in one run. Which is why i am not too worried as of yet.

The low to the south is starting to become a hinderance,i know what its trying to do.but its starting to mess up the pattern shift that we need

18z seams confused on it exactly what to do with it.

The general pattern after we get rid of it looks greats,however that low could cause snow.

I Beleive the big four are having problems with it.

[Barb]

It's understandable you up North are happy with the 18z but obviously in my location its a bit dissapointing. Easterlies and North easterlies usually produce little in my location while channel lows often deliver, its our best chance of snow. We had lots of blocking and so on over the past 10 days yet most of Wales had bugger all snow.

Edited December 25, 2009 by Barb

[snowlover2009]

It's understandable you up North are happy with the 18z but obviously in my location its a bit dissapointing. Easterlies and North easterlies usually produce little in my location while channel lows often deliver, its our best chance of snow. We had lots of blocking and so on over the past 10 days yet most of Wales had bugger all snow.

even though it would be better for us, i would still rather see the low around central southern england.

britain gos into deep cold thursday and to the end of the run.

[Barb]

Haha, the 18z control is the complete opposite to the 19z operational. The precip barely makes it across the channel on this while op has it going into Scotland. Cold is much further south too.

Safe to see nobody has a clue what's going to happen. Probably won't know until Sunday at the earliest.

[Geordiesnow]

The low is causing a few problems for the models but it does not need much shifting for things too look good nationwide again. I hope tomorrow runs trend it back south again. If the low 100-200 miles further South then the comments in this thread would be all so different.

Let see what the ensembles say, i am pretty sure the FAX's would trend with the UKMO output, i would be fairly surprised if it doesn't.

[bennytes]

It's understandable you up North are happy with the 18z but obviously in my location its a bit dissapointing. Easterlies and North easterlies usually produce little in my location while channel lows often deliver, its our best chance of snow. We had lots of blocking and so on over the past 10 days yet most of Wales had bugger all snow.

really? i live in Maesteg, and we had a walloping, and the garw, ogmore and rhondda valleys also had a pasting, as I found out when I tried delivering there the other day.

we've still got lying snow now, frozen solid as granite in the side streets.

[TEITS]

It's understandable you up North are happy with the 18z but obviously in my location its a bit dissapointing. Easterlies and North easterlies usually produce little in my location while channel lows often deliver, its our best chance of snow. We had lots of blocking and so on over the past 10 days yet most of Wales had bugger all snow.

I can certainly understand what your saying. I suppose we view model runs in different ways. I personally never bother with the details at this timeframe and prefer to concentrate on the overall pattern. The details can never be confirmed until you're within +48.

I will bring some good news though. I still believe the SW will track further S than the 18Z suggests. I also believe that the risk of snow will begin in Wales first and this risk will slowly extend S/E as the colder air tucks in. The far SE are likely to be the last in seeing rain turning to snow. The reason I say the SE is last is because of the warming effects of the N Sea as the NE,lys pull in.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

fax charts go with ukmo unfortunately.the angle of attack looks poor,little snow for Eng and wales going by the 528 dam line which is being pushed well into Scotland at 120h

[snowlover2009]

Haha, the 18z control is the complete opposite to the 19z operational. The precip barely makes it across the channel on this while op has it going into Scotland. Cold is much further south too.

Safe to see nobody has a clue what's going to happen. Probably won't know until Sunday at the earliest.

weird thing is,a few hours on it would still cause widespread heavy snow formuch of england as you see when the cold really starts to fall south later on wednesday i think.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The 18z doesn't really make alot of sense with the Jet so far South . I expect the warm sector to effect the South East at first but the 18z makes way to much of it IMO .

[BARRY]

I can certainly understand what your saying. I suppose we view model runs in different ways. I personally never bother with the details at this timeframe and prefer to concentrate on the overall pattern. The details can never be confirmed until you're within +48.

I will bring some good news though. I still believe the SW will track further S than the 18Z suggests. I also believe that the risk of snow will begin in Wales first and this risk will slowly extend S/E as the colder air tucks in. The far SE are likely to be the last in seeing rain turning to snow. The reason I say the SE is last is because of the warming effects of the N Sea as the NE,lys pull in.

But do youi think it will move far enough south to give us a few cms

[azores92]

fax charts go with ukmo unfortunately.the angle of attack looks poor,little snow for Eng and wales going by the 528 dam line which is being pushed well into Scotland at 120h

ill say it before and ill say it again, it isnt worth worrying about specifics until 48 hours at the earliest. these projections will most likely change.

[clark3r]

fax charts go with ukmo unfortunately.the angle of attack looks poor,little snow for Eng and wales going by the 528 dam line which is being pushed well into Scotland at 120h

still early days! another tricky forecast for the week ahead on sunday lol!