South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[rich101]

bbc forecasting snow for gloucestershire at some point tomorrow, after the rain comes in early a.m, so hope that initial rain turns to snow, and it is set in pretty much all day - nice

[BristolBlizzard]

No matter what, something ALWAYS unexpected happens. It could be that we get snow further south/north then expected, or we get alot less then expected etc.

Always seems to be the way with the british weather, get ready for good/bad surprises

[Lynxus]

No matter what, something ALWAYS unexpected happens. It could be that we get snow further south/north then expected, or we get alot less then expected etc.

Always seems to be the way with the british weather, get ready for good/bad surprises

Mostly bad.

Mostly bad.

[dogs32]

bbc forecasting snow for gloucestershire at some point tomorrow, after the rain comes in early a.m, so hope that initial rain turns to snow, and it is set in pretty much all day - nice

[BristolBlizzard]

Mostly bad.

Mostly bad.

Sometimes good.

Sometimes good.

[dogs32]

Thats a lot of snow developing down in the Channel

Cant put much of these images up as I will ex communicated,and disembowelld

But as you can see this is slowly getting more extensive PPN than earler

Edited December 28, 2009 by dogs32

[Herefordweather]

Personally think a hell of a lot of us in this thread will wake up tomorrow to a very horrible scene of heavy rain/sleet with temperatures of about 3-4oc....even higher further south.

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

weres Ian when u need him to come give us a clear answer! whatever ian says i shall trust

[Wilxy]

I also thinking of the same thing.

[Ian Fergusson]

Evening guys and gals.

My (much learned and wholly inimitable) colleague Rob McElwee, who acted as our Duty Forecaster for much of today, would be correct to think I'm utterly bonkers still pondering weather issues at nearly 2000hrs when I should be shortly into bed, but my briefing conversation with him earlier this afternoon effectively told a similar story to my earlier notes: i.e., anticipate a largely (if not exclusively) rain event later tonight and tomorrow across the westcountry, with the key exception of..... yes, you've guessed it..... upland Gloucestershire.

So, the essence of tomorrow remains largely the same: possibly disruptive snowfall developing for the Cotswolds and Forest of Dean; perhaps to lower levels too, but for a 'best estimate' I've appended the sooper-dooper expert thoughts of our UKMO Chief Forecaster, who - having assimilated all the available data and not least the very consistent MOGREPS output (which served us so well in Feb 2009, especially) - has done a fab job in delineating the likely snow risk in the chart here. Note, crucially, this is not merely for Tuesday!! Wednesday too. The emphasis into parts of Wales and adjoining English environs remains very evident; ditto the risk for Glos.... at least the higher areas, with WBFL's typically 250-450m.

Moving away from the snow hyperventilation expressed elsewhere on this wider forum (not this thread especially!), it's noticeable how the risk of heavy rain - and perhaps localised flooding - receives scant attention versus the prospects of 'white stuff'. In my view, this skews the likely outcome for much of southern England in the next 24hrs and I re-stress, the rainfall totals alone are more than worthy of note, let alone the snowfall into a rather focused area. But then I await to be proven wrong..... such is the nature of my job!

Oh - PS - also, don't dismiss the the ice risk from rain later tonight / tomorrow falling onto sub-zero surfaces. I just strolled through Bradley Stoke, S. Glos, and noticed some worrying signs this could become reality at points in the next 24hrs and especially further north.

Best

Ian

Edited December 28, 2009 by Ian Fergusson

[Bristawl Si]

Thats a lot of snow developing down in the Channel

Cant put much of these images up as I will ex communicated,and disembowelld

But as you can see this is slowly getting more extensive PPN than earler

Looks v.heavy - if only we'd had an easterly for a day or so with temps at freezing. and the front getting stalled near here. I'll be watching the BBC news24 weather forecast in a few mins to detect any subtle changes in the forecasted 'snow line'.

EDIT: Thanks Ian for another informative post.

Edited December 28, 2009 by Bristle boy

[Herefordweather]

Ian, cheers for that. Do you yourself see it being mostly snow for Hereford? Sorry to be a pain but any help would be appreciated highly as tomorrows drive to work could be nasty.

[theprophecyman]

cheers Ian

Looks like travelling from Frome to Bristol "should" be OK for the next few mornings/afternoons - although ice "as you mentioned" could be the problem, but snow wise - looks clear for me.

Thanks again for the post

[Lynxus]

Thanks for the update Ian, Im sure your shattered from a long day.

Looks like its gonna be very much a wait and see situation.

I think ill prepare myself for a very wet week.

[dogs32]

again excellent post Ian,Thank's for taking your time out in your busy schedule.

I know I SPEAK for many as its well appreciated on this forum

edit Lynxus and Rich and who ever I bet your even more happier now

Edited December 28, 2009 by dogs32

[Bristawl Si]

News24 weather update - rain for most; snow only to higher levels in mid-wales and possibly cotswolds and chilterns. Wet snow at best; not really cold enough for a wider snow event or powder snow.

Let's move on to the New Years Eve/New Years Day possible snow event. Why do i have a feeling that one will downgrade?

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

haha IAN speaks! your a legend to me now thanks rain it is

[Lynxus]

edit Lynxus and Rich and who ever I bet your even more happier now

Id love to be happy about it, but i dont think any amount of convincing will make me believe.

Round here has a terrible tendency to warm up quickly and just rain.

We will see I really do hope its a good one.

Would be nice to see the roads proper covered and seeing some proper road slush from the cars building up..

[Herefordweather]

News24 weather update - rain for most; snow only to higher levels in mid-wales and possibly cotswolds and chilterns. Wet snow at best; not really cold enough for a wider snow event or powder snow.

Let's move on to the New Years Eve/New Years Day possible snow event. Why do i have a feeling that one will downgrade?

So heavy snow it is.

[BristolBlizzard]

thanks ian great post for us in here to read again

[Ian Fergusson]

Ian, cheers for that. Do you yourself see it being mostly snow for Hereford? Sorry to be a pain but any help would be appreciated highly as tomorrows drive to work could be nasty.

Plan on that likelihood and I think it's prudent - yes. And potential for it to get seriously bad in upland areas around you.

[03jtrickey]

Thanks Ian.

I'm preparing to wake up with a sinking feeling to heavy sleety rain and murky weather continuing throughout the day. Sounds like it's a hill event here... though I'm still looking forward to seeing to what tomorrow does bring!

[J10]

Evening guys and gals.

My (much learned and wholly inimitable) colleague Rob McElwee, who acted as our Duty Forecaster for much of today, would be correct to think I'm utterly bonkers still pondering weather issues at nearly 2000hrs when I should be shortly into bed, but my briefing conversation with him earlier this afternoon effectively told a similar story to my earlier notes: i.e., anticipate a largely (if not exclusively) rain event later tonight and tomorrow across the westcountry, with the key exception of..... yes, you've guessed it..... upland Gloucestershire.

So, the essence of tomorrow remains largely the same: possibly disruptive snowfall developing for the Cotswolds and Forest of Dean; perhaps to lower levels too, but for a 'best estimate' I've appended the sooper-dooper expert thoughts of our UKMO Chief Forecaster, who - having assimilated all the available data and not least the very consistent MOGREPS output (which served us so well in Feb 2009, especially) - has done a fab job in delineating the likely snow risk in the chart here. Note, crucially, this is not merely for Tuesday!! Wednesday too. The emphasis into parts of Wales and adjoining English environs remains very evident; ditto the risk for Glos.... at least the higher areas, with WBFL's typically 250-450m.

Moving away from the snow hyperventilation expressed elsewhere on this wider forum (not this thread especially!), it's noticeable how the risk of heavy rain - and perhaps localised flooding - receives scant attention versus the prospects of 'white stuff'. In my view, this skews the likely outcome for much of southern England in the next 24hrs and I re-stress, the rainfall totals alone are more than worthy of note, let alone the snowfall into a rather focused area. But then I await to be proven wrong..... such is the nature of my job!

Oh - PS - also, don't dismiss the the ice risk from rain later tonight / tomorrow falling onto sub-zero surfaces. I just strolled through Bradley Stoke, S. Glos, and noticed some worrying signs this could become reality at points in the next 24hrs and especially further north.

Best

Ian

Massive thanks for your thoughts Ian

[Nights King]

News24 weather update - rain for most; snow only to higher levels in mid-wales and possibly cotswolds and chilterns. Wet snow at best; not really cold enough for a wider snow event or powder snow.

Let's move on to the New Years Eve/New Years Day possible snow event. Why do i have a feeling that one will downgrade?

[/quote

one word - Deja vu

So we all await for thursdays snow chances now then, Worth mentioning that that is also in FI so it will vanish also.

Although i am now thinking if there is one day that this could actualy happen it would be on friday/sat when i am getting a flight from bristol international!!

[Lynxus]

Very cold outside and clouding over now.

Theres also a strong COLLLLD breeze

Edited December 28, 2009 by Lynxus