South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

HEAVY SNOW HERE IN CARDIFF. big flakes.

[kaz]

Ian, thank you as ever.

Any chance though we could get some imput to the weather in the extreme SW or are we consigned to the mild wet weather therefore get no mention?

Beginning to wonder if the weather is so different in one part of the SW to the other than perhaps we need more definition in the threads.

Hi matt how you doing over there, really heavy rain here, i feel the same maby we should start are own thread for the penisular only.. Bristol ect is just to far away from the true SW.. temps here are +6 wet and wild.

kaz

[ronant]

Thursday remains subject to considerable uncertainty - primarily, how quickly the frontal zone decays as it sinks southwards, having (we expect) lost the principal upper forcing off westwards. The likely result - on present balance - is a spell of fairly widespread but generally light and increasingly fragmented snowfall into southern-central England, with the focus ever towards the SE, but crucially some EPS members (a not insignificant minority) want to spin things up somewhat down in the SE and increase the heavy snow risk. But present consensus is for ligher snow, a very cold evening (New Year's Eve) and widespread ice risk.

Thanks for taking the time to reply. It's certainly a fascinating winter!

[dogs32]

The PPN seem's to be struggling going any further North on the radar loop.

[Bristawl Si]

Sleet in Bradley Stoke 10 mins ago - quite prolonged bout of it - so assume same up the road in Stoke Gifford! Heavier PPN now less than 10NM to the SSW heading north.

Sat in the office at the mo and it just seems heavy rain here. Funny thing is the lake at work has remained frozen (thin layer of ice) all morning!

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi matt how you doing over there, really heavy rain here, i feel the same maby we should start are own thread for the penisular only.. Bristol ect is just to far away from the true SW.. temps here are +6 wet and wild.

kaz

Oh - but PS, forgot to mention you could have different fun and games later this eve and overnight as we see some beefy convective cells start affecting your areas of the extreme SW, some very likely to turn thundery. One to watch and consolation, despite the other dreary prognosis!

Edited December 29, 2009 by Ian Fergusson

[dogs32]

HEAVY SNOW HERE IN CARDIFF. big flakes.

You must be very happy Jay,lucky you dont have school.

lol

[Wilxy]

Wow just such light drizzly rain here seems all the PPN weakens as it hits here.

[Jayfromcardiff]

You must be very happy Jay,lucky you dont have school.

lol

Well i doubt college will close on monday lol....it's on a hill though which is a good thing.

[SHOWERSFROMTHEWORDGO]

More sleety stuff here, strong E, 2.0 down from 2.2

2 degrees less and it'd be a whiteout

oh well

[Ian Fergusson]

You must be very happy Jay,lucky you dont have school.

lol

It's the WBFL lowering in the higher-rate PPN. Same swathe into Bristol very shortly from the south. Keep watching. Signs of heavier convective PPN locally into B&NES districts now.... localised, however, but almost surely giving wintry stuff.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Hiya - yes, sadly (assuming you like snow) it's a wholly wet, windy and grim affair anywhere essentially from Exmoor / Mendips southwards today and doubtless tomorrow too. You'll not from the frames I just posted off the NAE how virtually all of the SW region -as defined by the UKMO - sits beneath the milder regime but as stressed yesterday, don't dismiss the the rainfall totals or possibly localised flooding impacts, either!

Thanks Ian,

Would obviously prefer the snow, but nevermind - already had 22mm of rain since midnight, but see little effect here, living on a hill. Just makes the roads a bit wetter than they are normally.

Can I hold out hope for a colder New Years? 3c and wet is not my idea of a good time. :lol:

Hi matt how you doing over there, really heavy rain here, i feel the same maby we should start are own thread for the penisular only.. Bristol ect is just to far away from the true SW.. temps here are +6 wet and wild.

kaz

Hey Kaz,

Its a bit lighter here now, but it pretty much poured from midnight until an hour ago, now its drizzle and fog. Nice. But pretty typical weather for this time of year.

Its 3C here, but the DP is also about 3C so nooooo hope of anything but rain.

I blame the Met Office trying to make their job easier by grouping the SW to be from Lands End to Gloucester, its crazy with such a random weather pattern as we get here. If it was Egypt perhaps not so much bother. "Hot and Sunny" would just about do the entire country.

[Jayfromcardiff]

It's the WBFL lowering in the higher-rate PPN. Same swathe into Bristol very shortly from the south. Keep watching. Signs of heavier convective PPN locally into B&NES districts now.... localised, however, but almost surely giving wintry stuff.

I hope the snow keeps up lol.

[dogs32]

It's the WBFL lowering in the higher-rate PPN. Same swathe into Bristol very shortly from the south. Keep watching. Signs of heavier convective PPN locally into B&NES districts now.... localised, however, but almost surely giving wintry stuff.

thanks Ian,

I was thinking this isn't to far away from me,maybe it's time to go for that Hike up the hill to Devil's Chimney for pic's and video's

Im currently have dry weather..lol

but not for long

[Ian Fergusson]

Thanks Ian,

Can I hold out hope for a colder New Years? 3c and wet is not my idea of a good time.

Indeed.

Our latest 6-15 day guidance from the medium-range guys at Exeter retains the cold - and at times, very cold - weather as far ahead at this timeframe (ca. 10 days+ and likely beyond that). Some of their guidance hints at spells of Atlantic frontal incursions with snow possibly into the SW but the snow signal - some heavy - does tend to be biased to the eastern UK. But there's plenty of time. We're not even into January yet.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Ian, sorry, but what does WBFL stand for? Can't find it anywhere!

[Nights King]

Just had a heavy burst of sleet with a couple of wet flakes mixed in for good measure.

Not quite the white out i was dreaming of but hey.

Cheers Ian for information as always.

[03jtrickey]

Another very informative post as usual, thanks Ian. Perhaps some bursts of snow even down here then, later. I think I'm going to wrap up warm and walk up Cleeve Hill ready for when this heavy precipitation arrives!

[musician]

Sleet now falling in Stroud despite temperature having again risen slightly - currently 2.9C

[Ian Fergusson]

thanks Ian,

I was thinking this isn't to far away from me,maybe it's time to go for that Hike up the hill to Devil's Chimney for pic's and video's

Im currently have dry weather..lol

but not for long

Well, the UKMO's high-res short-range modelling is still keen to offer snow into the upland Glos areas - see attached (PPN type discrimination, NOT actual PPN rate) for 16Z prognosis, obviously it's modelling - not a nowcast! But a reasonable punt. Hopefully you can make out the bits of Glos - I've zoomed in somewhat.

[BenJamminJ]

Well, the UKMO's high-res short-range modelling is still keen to offer snow into the upland Glos areas - see attached (PPN type discrimination, NOT actual PPN rate) for 16Z prognosis, obviously it's modelling - not a nowcast! But a reasonable punt. Hopefully you can make out the bits of Glos - I've zoomed in somewhat.

I'm going to pretend I didnt see the green on that picture, and go back to my post gazing out of the window with everything crossed (sad I know) LOL

temp has been nailed on 3.0 all day here

Edited December 29, 2009 by BenJamminJ

[jethro]

Hi! Yes! I certainly did! Mum still lives there. I wonder how you made the connection?

Better add a weather item for the moderator - temperature has risen to 2.8 and we have drizzle.

You said in an earlier post that you used to live in Chippy - I'm an ex-chippy too, small world eh.

Before I get my wrists slapped (yup, MODS get told off too) it's currently drizzling here and up to 2.7 Oh joy.

Thanks for the posts Ian, very informative as always. Can I ask, from a meteorological viewpoint, why is the transition to snow so often on a line with the M4? Topography?

[Lynxus]

Just light drizzle here,

Been like it for an hour or so now

Still 3.1c herem not getting colder.

I think this is pretty much it for us now.

The ppn to the south looks like its dieing back also.

hope im wrong, but i think im not.

[Ian Fergusson]

Ian, sorry, but what does WBFL stand for? Can't find it anywhere!

Ah - sorry. It's Wet Bulb Freezing Level. Important for snowfall potential - see by scrolling down the handy glossary here - - http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/64

Sizeable snowflakes now falling in Bradley Stoke, S Glos, with mixed sleet. A key change.

[microclimate]

Temperature only 4.8 here despite netweather forecast of 10degrees. I also noticed that Portland's temperature has actually dropped a couple of degrees from overnight. Does this mean the warmer air is delayed in getting in here or possibly not going to arrive at all.