South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[BristolBlizzard]

Sorry Iceburg, but that is so far in FI its not worth mentioning and getting the hopes up of lots of forum members. The models have been showing amazing cold weather and snow for more than two weeks and still nothing worth talking about for the SW.

yes its getting hard work i agree aspire27

[dogs32]

bristol channel shower heading towards gloucester/chelt!

Sam did you get any snow

[BristolBlizzard]

Yep Be sure to keep us posted about any snowfall

As dogs also mentions there seems to be some sferics, Not entirely unexpected but good.

That first "cell" thats moving up into bristol now i sgrowing very quickly, theres evidenly some good convection about.

There is also another broken cell / cells building further west of where the first one started.

This will also be something to keep an eye on.

My suggestion for that path would be up through bristol & cardiff then north-e.

Its also interesting to note the position of the of Low, There are signs that the stuff in West wales is starting to move south easterly .

Also worth keeping an eye on.

Temps are dropping here with 1.9c and 2.4c ( in longlevens area. )

I would expect the Cotswolds to get another blast of snow ( Anyone care to keep us updated with this? )

All eyes south and north and west and east.. ahh screw it.. just keep an eye out

Maybe this is why the meto have the warning valid till 3am ?

:ph34r: lol. eyes are out.

[dogs32]

everyone mentioning the warning's up to 0300...so maybe The met wont downgrade eve though now the front as passed.

Because of these shower's developing as a wintry mix?

They are expanding quite fast

Edited December 29, 2009 by dogs32

[Nights King]

Some hefty looking showers coming up although it will be sleet again acording to my crystal ball.

Snow for dorset later in week but they don't get north enough to reach north somerset what a joke.

What is the ppn falling as in bristol now anyway?

Edited December 29, 2009 by mullender83

[aspire27]

Just had heavy sleet shower.

Going by the radar..snow across highland Wales...

No snow anywhere across the country.

[Lynxus]

Just had heavy sleet shower.

Going by the radar..snow across highland Wales...

No snow anywhere across the country.

I wouldnt trust the rainfall type radars.

[BristolBlizzard]

Some hefty looking showers coming up although it will be sleet again acording to my crystal ball.

Snow for dorset later in week but they don't get north enough to reach north somerset what a joke.

What is the ppn falling as in bristol now anyway?

well i think snow will miss us from north , east , south, west , <_<

[dogs32]

this might not be finished for us quite yet..

http://www.sat24.com/gb

[Lynxus]

this might not be finished for us quite yet..

http://www.sat24.com/gb

I agree,

The cell behind it to the west is also growing rapidly.

<_< Still raining / hailing here

[BristolBlizzard]

heavy sleet south bristol now .

[Lynxus]

Just very heavy drizzle here.

Even the ice has stopped falling..

temp is lower than before.. god knows whats going on.

[Nights King]

Heavy rain with a little sleet but no snow. first week of jan could be fun if only i was here that week.

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

heavy sleet temps holding at 2.3

[Bristawl Si]

Heavy rain with a little sleet but no snow. first week of jan could be fun if only i was here that week.

Couldn't resist popping into the local on way home from work this eve. And after a few hours away from the thread i see we're all still hopecasting

M, i wouldn't get too excited about 1st week of Jan, i mean, it's only 2 days ago that New Years Eve/Day was looking a great prospect for snow, but watching the BBC1 forecast just before 7 this eve, it looks like a massive downgrade to me.

Despondency has set in here; roll on New Year's Eve for the annual drinking blitz!

EDIT: As Supertramp once sang "It's raining again! Oh no, it's raining again!" Chucking it down here. No sign of one single flake of snow!

Edited December 29, 2009 by Bristle boy

[dogs32]

like Lynxus I reckon even though Raintoday is a good radar,I personally think Netweather radar is better with detail...I know they are from the same source but the resolution or pigment's seem better..

Also I think Ian did a excellent job on his forecast's for us over the last two spell's of wintry threat's

if you look into his post's you will see he is very accurate..

my estimation of him as a forecaster as gone up immensely

anyway far from over by the looks of my NW image

Edited December 29, 2009 by dogs32

[kumquat]

Heavy rain North Bristol lol

[David-kig]

thursday looks petty so will be sunday and monday u wait. south west is ....

[snowdog]

bit too mild outside at the moment for snow. at least the toy poodle doesnt get cold paws when he goes for walkies!

[monkeyuk]

What a day. rain rain rain. was looking forward to snow. its snowing heavily at villa park for the football

[SteveB]

Rubbish forecast for us on the BBC local news. Had 5-6-7c Temps tomorrow, & the snow threat wright up to Friday vitually zero.

Even when it is supposed to get cold on Friday, there was 3-4c day time temps.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Local forecast on the radio going for snow on thursday for Devon, much as the national forecast did, but the local one was snow from the north, whereas national had it coming from the south.

Whatever, don't care where it comes from so long as it does.

"Bitterly" cold from Thursday onwards (quote/unquote)

[BristolBlizzard]

Rubbish forecast for us on the BBC local news. Had 5-6-7c Temps tomorrow, & the snow threat wright up to Friday vitually zero.

Even when it is supposed to get cold on Friday, there was 3-4c day time temps.

yes it dont seem that great at the moment .

Local forecast on the radio going for snow on thursday for Devon, much as the national forecast did, but the local one was snow from the north, whereas national had it coming from the south.

Whatever, don't care where it comes from so long as it does.

"Bitterly" cold from Thursday onwards (quote/unquote)

you might get sandwiched by snow :lol:

[SteveB]

Chucking it down with rain & Temps at 2.7c

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi all

Some of these convective clusters on radar to the SW look interesting. Meantime, we retain a snow threat tonight for upland Glos, effectively as expected.

Looking ahead:

The events of Thurs remains somewhat blurred albeit the UKMO GM (Global Model) has now falllen into wider agreement with most other output (the GM having been blighted by a data assimilation problem over the last 24+hrs but now resolved).

The weakening frontal zone sinks south through Wales, Midlands and into southern England, but on current reckoning, unlikely to offer disruptive snowfall or indeed, even much snowfall for many as it tends to fragment with the upper forcing departing through a westward shear. However - as earlier noted - some ensemble members - including the latest GM run - want to propose a more dramatic solution for NewYear's Eve, offering a ca. 30-% (currently) risk that via a shortwave feature, snowfall could prove far more bothersome into at least (and primarily, I stress) the SE quadrant of England (and if it was reality, a newsworthy end to 2009 in London and environs).

But more readily reportable is the high likelihood of a very, very raw feel to New Year's Eve widely -- bitterly cold for revellers, with a significant wind chill and noteworthy are some model suggestions of overnight minima across any snowy areas dropping to around -17 to -20 in rural districts. And that's news in itself, even sans snow. The snow risk - for what it's worth - is modelled in the attached frames from the lovely MOGREPS product that fared really accurately today. The top line is snowfall (rain equivalent) >1mm probs in mm between (left) 00-12Z Thurs to (right) 12Z Fri-00Z Sat and lower row, the same timeframe but for >5mm snow rain equivalent. In other words, a chance of snow effectively anywhere between now and Fri in the SW but critically, the PROB values are low.....those green shaded indicating <20-30% for any one district.

Beyond that, there's potential for problems to brew into the SW later into the weekend but it's frankly a meteorological lifetime away and I personally despair of the varied GFS-ophilia / GFSycophancy and other ramping of distant, speculative and often known cold/snowy-bias modelling that sits poorly with statistical certainty. But for sure, the broader theme of a colder spell lasting well into ((perhaps beyond?) the 6-15 day outlook remains fairly solid, albeit with a few caveats. As for PPN detail.....a nightmare, so let's await the shorter-range developments before further hyperventilation about winter superstorms and the like.

That's prudent science, not least in terms of public consumption (remember the BBQ Summer PR mess?) as opposed to bone-fide and valuable efforts ( = science is all about pioneering spirit) at longer range model synthesis in academia.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Ian Fergusson