General Model Output Discussion

[kold weather]

Actually a rather woeful 12z ECM for the overall pattern compared to the GFS and its ensembles, we get caught inbetween the two best case situations and this actually leaves us with the worst case situation instead.

Still De Blit should also become much milder so we will see just what the 12z ECM ensembles show...my feeling sis its going to be something close to an outlier by 216hrs...

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

South Westerlies at 192 on the ECM!

[PB22]

Actually a rather woeful 12z ECM for the overall pattern compared to the GFS and its ensembles, we get caught inbetween the two best case situations and this actually leaves us with the worst case situation instead.

Still De Blit should also become much milder so we will see just what the 12z ECM ensembles show...my feeling sis its going to be something close to an outlier by 216hrs...

I don't think anyone would be in any position to complain if the ECM 12z came off because before the breakdown most places will have seen a sensational spell of weather, unheard of in previous Januaries.

I do find the 12z run hard to believe though, as to how we end up at this by T+216:

By the way, the ECM freebie today is the Reading ensembles, so that will be handy for when they come out later: http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html

[snowingman]

Look I'm no expert but let me point out one thing!

Yesterday ECM was GOD....everything was cold cold cold as far as the charts went

Yesterday GFS was the fly in the ointment - most people has reason to shoot it down

18Z ECM - is no the fly while GFS is GOD

golly,,,, consistency - NONE, can we believe them NO WAY

sorry.. getting quite cynical really

[SMU]

People DONT PANICK-

Im 99% sure its a freak ECM special- Look at the GFS ensemble MEAN, look at the UKMO at 120/144 V the ECM-

Remember the poor runs of the ECM when we had retrogression up to Greenland on Dec 10 when everyone was singing the praises of the GFS- which was then the Parallel-

I am just binning that- the pressure over greenland has changed by about 40MB from 00z to 12z ECM..

thats is POOR consistency-

S

[Frosty.]

What a shame, the ECM 12z looks so wintry out to T+144 and then it all suddenly ends? a new trend maybe

[TEITS]

Its come to something when a cold and snowy run isn't greeted with joy! But yes, I do see where you are coming from Dave. The longer term prospects on the ECM 12z aren't as good, but then again this cold spell won't last forever. Its just one run though and in the meantime there's still lots of fun and games to be had.

I'd advise coldies not to look at the ECM post T+168:

T+192:

Wonder where this one will stand on the ensembles later.

Certainly concerning but like Steve M said the ECM before Xmas did go off on one and this was a 12Z. Remember it vivdly because someone has Ian Browns comments as there sig.

Coming back to the here and now and does anyone remember my comments this morning about the NMM & GFS with regards to precip around the Wash. If you didn't read then basically these models suggested some convection around the Wash tonight but the BBC/Met O were having none of it. Well according to the radar at 18.30, convection is just entering the Wash area.

Edited December 31, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[BARRY]

I all the models have shown a break down at one point or another, So take them with a pinch of salt

[igloo]

the conveyor belt starts at +192 at least the heating can get swiched of double digit temps

[snowingman]

Whaoh.. the end is now in sight

ECM showing dramatic breakdown in cold spell

No doubt we will be told to bin this "bad" chart... but there must be a basis for this output... ECM has been the one to watch this winter so far... other models are sure to follow suit...

good bye our wintery blip... welcome back the SWesterlies

[snowking]

Haha yes typical, we finally see some amazing synoptics from the UKMO and GFS....only to see the ECMWF throw up a horror in the mid term

Its worrying to be honest because i'm sure nobody can deny here, regardless of your stance on supposed 'cold' or 'mild' rampers, that the ECMWF has been the most accurate chart in the mid term - the verification stats speak for themselves

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

However we hope to see a change come the first 0z run of 2010......but regardless of all of that we have over a week of some of the coldest synoptics i've ever seen away from an archived chart, so given the time of year why not a bit of optimism for now rather than all this pain in the ass whinging about it looking too dry. Theres no pleasing some people, perhaps a return to something similar to the ECMWF circa 168 onwards would give people a dose of reality?

Anyway, as I am about to depart I wish everyone a very happy new year, and here's to a decade of cold winters

SK

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Check out the PPN forecast for tonight and this morning on the German "WRF" model at WZ. You can just make out part of East Anglia.

Shows more PPN for longer than GFS.

[Geordiesnow]

- People are worrying about the whole thing toppling yet i'll be more worried about the northerly flow actually reaching us.

I think some are expecting every run to be cold cold cold from start to finish, we know it won't be always be like that. The only trend i can see is that the Greenland block could be on the move, where and how this affects our weather, nobody knows!

[Frosty.]

People DONT PANICK-

Im 99% sure its a freak ECM special- Look at the GFS ensemble MEAN, look at the UKMO at 120/144 V the ECM-

Remember the poor runs of the ECM when we had retrogression up to Greenland on Dec 10 when everyone was singing the praises of the GFS- which was then the Parallel-

I am just binning that- the pressure over greenland has changed by about 40MB from 00z to 12z ECM..

thats is POOR consistency-

S

I agree with SM,

This run can't be right, hopefully it won't have much support.

[Optimus Prime]

Things turn more normal at the end of the ECM run with westerlys and powerhouse lows - certainly one for the trend setters being ECM (Usually GFS sets trends) but it's way out in loo la land to worry too much about.

A good 7 days of very cold weather atleast.

[Duncan McAlister]

Oh dear, big mistake to wait for the ECM to put me in a good mood for the New Year

Never mind, this one run is very much the exception to the rule and even here the breakdown is still 7 days away.

Happy New Year folks and hope we have a January to remember

[West is Best]

Although the ECM past T144 is a concern, I really don't think it's something to lose sleep over at the moment. The models are all having their ups and downs, mainly I think because of the blocking. Though an overdone phrase they are struggling. If ever it was wise not to look too far out, now's the time: max 5 days or so. Add to this the conformity of the GFS ensembles and the UKMO/GEM runs and there's an even stronger case for chilling out - literally as it happens.

Happy New Year everyone!

(p.s. re. my pm post it's Inverness that has cancelled the Hogmany bash)

[MR EXTREMES]

People DONT PANICK-

Im 99% sure its a freak ECM special- Look at the GFS ensemble MEAN, look at the UKMO at 120/144 V the ECM-

Remember the poor runs of the ECM when we had retrogression up to Greenland on Dec 10 when everyone was singing the praises of the GFS- which was then the Parallel-

I am just binning that- the pressure over greenland has changed by about 40MB from 00z to 12z ECM..

thats is POOR consistency-

S

yep i totally agree steve.

im not 1bit worried about this even the best models have wobbles and it is f1.

[kold weather]

The ECM is a horror show and overall it is the best model BUT it was terrible with evolving us into the first cold spell therefore that should prove its not to be taken too seriously unless it has good ECM ensemble agreement...

Could very easily be a mild outlier, I'll take a punt and say its in the top 5 mildest runs from the ECM ensembles by 216hrs...I'll only be a littl more worried if we see say 10-15 ensemble members go along with the ECM op....

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Remember it vivdly because someone has Ian Browns comments as there sig.

Not any more (slap on the hand from a mod), but i'm glad people liked it while it was there!

Some place in the South East might wake up to a white new year!

[Optimus Prime]

But Kold...what's wrong with some good old modern low pressure storms...it's what modern winters are made of

[AndyC741]

Do i hear the chinking of razor blades as some of us descend into despair at the appearance of the dreaded southwesterly in 8 days time? Seriously, what are the chances that it disapears on the next run? Then calm will descend... until the next time!! Loving the commentary by S Murr, WIB, and many others. I learn more and more each day. Keep it up and Happy New Year to all.

[TEITS]

The only thing I will say about the ECM is tonights GEM does actually follow this. Also yesterdays GFS Ops did suggest this but at the time I was saying it was too progressive. Still we are still talking about +144/+168 and no doubt other changes will occur although I don't know if this will be for the better or worse.

Certainly won't allow +144 to spoil what we have in the meantime.

[Mikel Nimbus]

One wobbly ECM and all the doom mongerers are out in force.

Just bear this in mind before posting whining comments on here.

1) GFS ensembles are stunningly compact out well into next week for very cold air over much of the country. It is also very keen to prolong the cold.

2) ECM is supposed to have the best verification results lately. If today's 12z was to come off, that would mean all its previous runs lately would not verify! 12z ECM is the first time we have seen anything of the sort it is suggesting (mild SW'erlys) out in FI on any model thus far.

3) Don't forget ECM wobbled for a few runs in the run up to the last cold spell. GFS modelled the setup brilliantly right from FI to T0.

4) Even if this ECM run was to materialise, and I think that is a big if, there is huge potential for a lot of cold/snow up until then.

Now calm down and enjoy your new year's eve.

[nick sussex]

Oh dear that ecm has certainly not read the script! to be honest i don't know what to make of it,however perhaps its reacted to something upstream or overreacted as the case maybe. I just find it rather strange the speed at which it topples the high,it's my favourite model but what it does just doesn't really tie in with the expected upstream pattern.

Anyway it's one operational run so let's not allow it to dampen the festive spirit, theres still some very good synoptics agreed on by all the major models upto 144hrs.