General Model Output Discussion

[Ben_Cambs]

GFS 18z very little change from 12z run so far. The point of intrest is at T+172 though, if it follows ECM 12z for a breakdown of the colder weather or keeps its distance. The most likely outcome is that it will keep its distance from ECM 12z. We shall wait and see

[SMU]

HAPPY NEW YEAR PEOPLES -

Im logging off now- 18z is NOT an ECM redux- its all good at 138...

Maybe some snow for me to greet the 12:01Am of 01/01/10!!!!!!!!!!

CIAO

S

[Thundery wintry showers]

Actually, it would be the GFS who picked it up first, remember all those posts dismissing previous 06Z runs because its being "over progressive" and we should bin it.

Not quite- the GFS was also reluctant to bring in any kind of NE'ly with those progressive runs, often keeping us in a slack east or even ESE flow from 3-5 January and then introducing a half-hearted 24-36 hour northerly followed by a toppling of the block. ECMWF does at least stick to its guns with the three days of north-north-easterly winds.

[January Snowstorm]

HAPPY NEW YEAR MR.MURR

HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL!!

[Cloud 10]

Another cold/very cold run from the gfs 18z up to +144,the high is in a better position so no quick sinker on this run.

[Optimus Prime]

The last Pub Run of 2009 is looking like a stonker...a good easterly flow developing on the 7th.

[Ben_Cambs]

Great last model run of 2009, GFS completly ignores ECM for the breakdown. Great Stuff

GFS @ T+180:

[Cloud 10]

Steve Murr logged off to soon.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

A nice easterly at 180 to finish off the hi-res part of the last GFS run of this decade!

Edited December 31, 2009 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[TEITS]

Seems the Atlantic hits a brick wall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2764.png

I will add though that only yesterday the GFS was indicating the LP might hit the S. However in just 24hrs of modelling look how far S this LP is. My point is as much as I would love an E,ly to arrive, we have seen how 24hrs is very long time for these computer models.

Im going to keep a more open mind and wait until tomorrow mornings 0Zs.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the Ecm 850'S I'm looking at for it's 12z run are around -10 until at least +168 what's the problem ?

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is looking very likely that we will see some sort of mid latitude block form after around T+168, slowly sinking south. What then happens afterwards depends on where the high ends up.

ECMWF shows the mildest case scenario, with the high splitting in two, the branch over Scandinavia being shunted off east and the other branch sinking south allowing westerlies in.

GFS shows the coldest/snowiest case scenario- the high settles over the north allowing a cold easterly flow to persist well into the second week of January across central and southern districts, most likely feeding some snow showers in off the North Sea given the very cold uppers. JMA also suggests the same thing.

An alternative is that the high settles over the top of the UK leaving it cold but dry, but even then, if the southern arm of the jet stays strong it could force the high northwards a little, like some recent GFS runs have shown in FI. I think the "cold but dry with no more widespread snow" is a realistic option, which should be taken into account as well as the GFS/JMA possibility, but the ECMWF's evolution to mild south-westerlies strikes me as being pretty unlikely.

[kold weather]

A good run from the 18z, not quite as good as the 12z of course but saying that its still a super cold run upto the 13th, would be way below 0C in that set-up...

ECM ensembles show two distinct sets of ideas just like TWS describes.

FWIW the 18z GFS control run is quite frankly unreal!

[cyclonic happiness]

happy new year!!! and let this one, be a cold one

[Snooz]

18z never to be taken too seriously but with HP developing towards Scandi and a slack flow, a real hard cold run. This would be what we would need to see in order to achieve an anomalously cold January in relation, to, er, the last twenty years or so.

like it..

[ChartViewer]

Happy New Year all

Loved GP's technical thread quote 'Brutally warmer temps bring winter to a premature end'

Looking at FI on the models I suggest thats correct and we can see a Bartlett (my favorite scenario)

arriving......

Seems like some serious cold in jan before we see warmer temps in Feb and a Bartlett forming

BBQ weather

Happy New Year all

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

18z never to be taken too seriously but with HP developing towards Scandi and a slack flow, a real hard cold run. This would be what we would need to see in order to achieve an anomalously cold January in relation, to, er, the last twenty years or so.

Happy New Year Ian,

I see you were included in the list of knowledgeable posters yesterday. I'd agree with that, even if I disagree on times

Will be very interesting to see whether the ECM is 'Off On One' or whetherit's picked up a signal. My own view is that the GFS tends to be better further out (in fact it goes so far out it can pick something, discard it and resurrect it and we don't notice), so I'll carry on looking at the cold

[Methuselah]

Happy New Year, everyone!!! :lol: :lol:

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Happy New Year, everyone!!! :lol: :lol:

Aha, another sad 'insert Accuweather's forecaster's name here'

[Nath]

Happy new year all!!! Hope its a cold Jan/Feb, a nice Spring, and a long hot summer with nice storms every few days!!

[Ben_Cambs]

Happy New Year to everyone, and may this cold last! :D :)

Edited January 1, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Mr Plough]

Happy new year everyone, its been great fun following the models for the last month or so, a real treat for us coldies!

Lets hope ECMWF makes for better viewing when we wake up:drinks:

[Guest]

Happy New Year to everyone, and may this cold last! :D :)

Happy New Year and let's hope that this cold lasts yet another two weeks....

[Ben_Cambs]

Happy new year everyone, its been great fun following the models for the last month or so, a real treat for us coldies!

Lets hope ECMWF makes for better viewing when we wake up:drinks:

Probably wont be GFS 12z until most of us are up! :) :D

Great runs, last GFS run was a stunner, we just want the ECM to go the same way!

[Mark Bayley]

Happy New year everyone Hopefully the ECM gets drunk and gives an excellent run in the morning ( not that it was bad short-medium term)