General Model Output Discussion

[nick sussex]

The ecm this evening is unbelievably good, we're almost there but i'm going to hold fire on too much ramping until i see that scandi trough do as it's supposed to. It's key here that it doesn't edge too far west and we actually do need the high to topple here so that the coldest air backs westwards.

It's incredibly difficult to remain calm in the face of these synoptics!

Edited January 1, 2010 by nick sussex

[phil nw.]

It just doesn`t end- look at this

ECM 12z today http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

14/01/1987 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870114.gif

Very alike.

[TEITS]

I will add that if anyone in the Midlands/Wales/SW is assuming they will miss out then they are wrong. If the ECM verified then anyone S of the Pennines would be at risk. This is because the sheer amount of convection off the N Sea wouldn't bring scattered showers but huge clusters of showers into E areas. Now obviously these would weaken as they move W but would maintain enough intensity to bring snowfalls.

Really hope the ECM comes off because this is the best synoptics we could possibly imagine. Some parts of E Anglia/SE would literally be buried in snowfalls.

[NorthantsSnow]

You could hardly call the ECM consistent at the moment, could you? :lol: Pretty massive turnaround since yesterday. Still, extraordinary charts so I'm certainly not complaining.

[Optimus Prime]

January 1987 believe had a very similar run up to that cold spell with hints being shown a good week before the big event. There wouldn't record cold, clearly as there have been colder and better synoptics but there would be very low temperatures.

Overall more stunning output.

[Barometric]

Of ALL the charts and ALL the runs I have seen over the last decade, the ECM is quite frankly the best I have ever seen from an IMBY perspective.

With not only the deep cold of the 850's you then have the surface cold from a frigid continent to factor in too.

IF those charts verified and its a big IF after 120-144, then we would have snow depths rivalling 1987 if not topping it. Back then we had 2-3 days of continuous snowfall, on the ECM tonight we have literally days!

I am saving this run, taking it to the bank and drawing on it straight away (obviously once cleared)

Not only do we have the incredible potential from 120 onwards but we have great charts from tomorrow night for the SE and after 5 days of damp rubbish here in Kent it is such a relief to now have the cold weather here in place!!

Honestly I think xmas has moved from the 25th to the 1st this year for me. We are on the cusp of something truly remarkable without a doubt.

James

[Neilsouth]

Thankyou Steve for your reply :lol:

[Bristawl Si]

I will add that if anyone in the Midlands/Wales/SW is assuming they will miss out then they are wrong. If the ECM verified then anyone S of the Pennines would be at risk. This is because the sheer amount of convection off the N Sea wouldn't bring scattered showers but huge clusters of showers into E areas. Now obviously these would weaken as they move W but would maintain enough intensity to bring snowfalls.

Really hope the ECM comes off because this is the best synoptics we could possibly imagine. Some parts of E Anglia/SE would literally be buried in snowfalls.

Some comfort there TEITS - we're feeling a bit left out over here in the West tonight!

At the mo does look like an eastern-favoured event, but then i suppose it's bound to.

Still, farther down the line, things may develop for us in the West.

EDIT: A note of caution though is that those members comparing to other classic cold, snow years - the likes of 79, 81, 87, 47 and 63 were far more national - they were not confined just to the East.

Edited January 1, 2010 by Bristle boy

[kold weather]

Oh...my...life...

What an insane set of 12z thus far, the coldest and snowiest spell since Feb 1991, and probably the coldest since then as well!!!

Anyway the broad set-up looks very well agreed upon and an exceptional spell of weather looks to be on our doorstep....this really could be something special....but still time for changes in the linger term set-up...

[West is Best]

It's incredibly difficult to remain calm in the face of these synoptics!

Hi Nick and everyone,

These really are extraordinarily good outputs on the 12z runs. The ensembles out to FI are astonishing. My only aside is let's remain country-wide in our analyses rather than just the south-east focused! Other than that, to all old timers on here: we've waited a long time for this 'eh? And John Holmes posted something very wise a while back - we don't know how long we might have to wait to see synoptics like this again. So let's enjoy! A quite incredible set of runs. Blimey!!!!

[nick sussex]

I wonder what the ukmo will do in their fax charts this evening. Their output does look out on its own here, don't get me wrong it's still good but looks very messy and not as good as the ecm. I do hope they modify their raw data towards the ecm.

[Thundery wintry showers]

January 1987 had a rather different background- it was delivered by a Scandinavian High that came out of Siberia and brought exceptionally cold air westwards towards Britain, resulting in the exceptionally cold and, for most, snowy period on the 11th-14th.

The current setup has a northerly outbreak delivered by a Greenland High, followed by a build of pressure to the north resulting in the winds veering easterly- although there is the common factor of much of eastern Europe and western Asia being anomalously cold, giving us plenty of cold air to tap into.

If the ECM verified it would not be anywhere near as cold as 11-14 January 1987 (though that's not saying much), but snow showers would probably be comparably widespread.

[TEITS]

Some comfort there TEITS - we're feeling a bit left out over here in the West tonight!

At the mo does look like an eastern-favoured event, but then i suppose it's bound to.

Still, farther down the line, things may develop for us in the West.

I can't believe at +240 the E,lys keep coming.

I honestly believe if the ECM verified then parts of E Anglia/SE would have lying snow between 20-50cm. Now even for your location I would expect snow depths around 10-20cm. You see S of the Pennines and there isn't any notable hills to act as a barrier for these streams of snow. Even saying this I reckon some parts W of the Pennines would see some snow showers.

[keithlucky]

Im probably ramping too much but surely if the ECM verified then snow depths would exceed 30cm locally in E Anglia/SE I would expect.

Just add that if anyone thinks im ramping, back in Jan 1987 I will never forget how Peterborough had 48hrs of consistent heavy snow and this literally didn't stop for a second. I have seen photos from Kent of Jan 87 and the scenes reminded me of the lake effect snow that they experience around the Great Lakes of the US.

Fantastic charts this evening.

At +192 the snowfalls move N again!

No you not eye already 2 cms in swansea more to come streamer formed.

[Alex95]

I think the far south east is looking very likely to get something out of the easterly, even if it is fairly unremarkable. The NE is also fairly well placed for an easterly, but there is a much greater risk of high pressure being to close. Still, 4 inches has fallen already today and early next week looks likely to bring at least the same again, if not twice that, with onshore winds and a series of little low pressure centres and troughs bringing intense North Sea snow showers. I think the NE will get most of their snow early next week with less from the easterly, whilst places from the Midlands / East Anglia southwards stand a much better chance of seeing heavy snow from the easterly.

Sorry for the long winded post, the gist of what I'm trying to say is that the NE will get lots of snow between now and the middle of next week, whilst further south most of the snow will fall after that, but even then there could be some snow early next week, just nothing spectacular.

[Polar Continental]

Speechless is a good word!

The ECM ensembles will be another big talking point this eveing once again i should think! What a contrast to the 12z ECM yesterday evening!!

Yes indeed Tamara,

The 12z ECM is phenomenally cold and snowy, if all these chart do verify then as Steve M mentioned the other day, inland rivers will begin to freeze over, plus drifting powder snow for many over the midlands and the south.

Wash lake effect snow, look at the isobars on the margins of that high, unstable bitter cold north easterlies.

Edited January 1, 2010 by Polar Continental

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm excellent glad its over yesterdays wobble lol.

anyway id stay away from the south central thread not happy place but to be honest in some ways i can see why,

but as john has suggested it can happen so i will wait.

although models are fantastic there not so good for snowfall in portsmouth but still very cold:cold:.

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick and everyone,

These really are extraordinarily good outputs on the 12z runs. The ensembles out to FI are astonishing. My only aside is let's remain country-wide in our analyses rather than just the south-east focused! Other than that, to all old timers on here: we've waited a long time for this 'eh? And John Holmes posted something very wise a while back - we don't know how long we might have to wait to see synoptics like this again. So let's enjoy! A quite incredible set of runs. Blimey!!!!

Hi WIB

Yes as everyone can see i'm trying to remain calm and as objective as possible but it's really a strain! Actually because we're on the cusp here of synoptics probably not seen for years it's actually more nerve shredding. And i'm here in France, i can only imagine i'd be close to hysterical if i was still in the UK!

Still theres some snow for me down here if the ecm verifies but i'm more excited to see what happens in the UK.

[SnowBallz]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

[Altostratus]

Phenomenal ECM. I’d love to see the scenes in London if that verified. Not only does the E’ly feed keep going, there are also signs of the high retrogressing back to GL for a reload. IF that occurred, a subzero month would be quite likely. When was the last time we had one of these? Feb 86?

[Iceni]

I can't believe at +240 the E,lys keep coming.

I honestly believe if the ECM verified then parts of E Anglia/SE would have lying snow between 20-50cm. Now even for your location I would expect snow depths around 10-20cm. You see S of the Pennines and there isn't any notable hills to act as a barrier for these streams of snow. Even saying this I reckon some parts W of the Pennines would see some snow showers.

The Beast from the East has obviously had a litter of cubs this year.

I have followed this forum for 2 years sharing TEITS's highs and lows, waiting and watching for this legendary animal. Well done for keeping the faith TEITS, but don't bring out your monster sig. until the Beasterlies are howling all around us… in case they get spooked.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

The voice of reason!

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM is stunning. Shows what 24 hours can do. Easterlies just keep on bringing the snow:

[igloo]

How would the far west do i cant see it doing to well!!

not great i dont think if its a east wind or north east the west usually doesnt do so well for western areas to get decent amount of snow you tend to need a northerly well thats that it like up here in south west scotland any way

[Alex95]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

I get excited because the significant snow has already started here. I'm one third of the way to receiving a foot after just one day

Phenomenal ECM. I’d love to see the scenes in London if that verified. Not only does the E’ly feed keep going, there are also signs of the high retrogressing back to GL for a reload. IF that occurred, a subzero month would be quite likely. When was the last time we had one of these? Feb 86?

I'd love to see a subzero month, we're certainly overdue one I would imagine This winter seems quite similar to 1979 in the sense that instead of the Atlantic trying to break through the lows just want to head into southern Europe so reloads keep happening. I know we've only had one reload so far, but imo it is looking increasingly likely we'll see another.