General Model Output Discussion

[nick sussex]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

I have to disagree here, the low earlier in the week was a completely different set up. It was never going to be a major UK wide snow event as the low was not running into any sort of depth of cold at the surface.

If the ecm verifies it will close down many areas of the UK especially eastern and se areas, we have i'd say one day to go modelwise to be really sure of what the trough over Scandi does.

[Lynxus]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

One thing i never understand is.. Why do they show these type of setups?

Its not like the system is configured to go for really bad weather.

Something must be causing it to do this. So yeah while they do show F.I type setups there must be a reason for it.

It is a shame that they do settle down, However i think if people took them with too much of a pinch of salt, we may get caught out oneday.

All im trying to say is, Something must be making these charts look like they are. They are not biased in anyway. ( hopefully )

Unless someones playing a cruel cruel joke on us.

-G

[TEITS]

Here is the general trend for next week based on the ECM.

Monday

During the day an band of snow moves S due to the occluded front as posted earlier.

Tues

Heavy snow showers moving into Scotland/NE England via NE,lys with these spreading further S during the day. During Tuesday night we would see extensive heavy snowfalls especially across E areas.

Wed.

Heavy prolonged snow showers giving prolonged snowfalls across many E areas with locations further W seeing occasional snow showers.

Thurs.

Heavy snowfalls across E Anglia/SE/Humber with these spreading further W. Becoming drier to the N though.

Friday.

Heavy snowfalls continuing in the SE but becoming drier elsewhere.

Saturday.

Heavy snowfalls start to spread further N once again

Sunday.

Kent, E Anglia cut off from the rest of the UK. Steve Murr and Tamara have passed out with excitement and miss the further snowfalls.

[Archie_Lewis]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

WISE words ...... The charts will probably look different come Monday!

Beautiful looking charts... Yes! But really........

Last weekend that low was modeled to bring a possible foot of snow to Wales and the Midlands..! The SE and EA, midlands was suppose to be under heavy snow showers all day today -was also backed up by the countryfile forecast as well - niether happened

[Thundery wintry showers]

As is so often the case, the truth lies somewhere in between. The ECMWF evolution to a prolonged easterly for central and southern areas following the initial north-easterly outbreak is still in FI, and thus, it's quite possible that we could see this downgrade nearer the time, with the high ending up progged to settle on top of the British Isles instead keeping it cold but dry. But note "possible", not "certain" or even "probable". The ECM's evolution is every bit as plausible, all depends on how strong the southern arm of the jet is relative to the re-invigorating northern arm.

This isn't just a one-off fantasy run- several recent runs have suggested this, notably from ECM, GFS and JMA.

[Ben_Cambs]

Here is the general trend for next week based on the ECM.

Monday

During the day an band of snow moves S due to the occluded front as posted earlier.

Tues

Heavy snow showers moving into Scotland/NE England via NE,lys with these spreading further S during the day. During Tuesday night we would see extensive heavy snowfalls especially across E areas.

Wed.

Heavy prolonged snow showers giving prolonged snowfalls across many E areas with locations further W seeing occasional snow showers.

Thurs.

Heavy snowfalls across E Anglia/SE/Humber with these spreading further W. Becoming drier to the N though.

Friday.

Heavy snowfalls continuing in the SE but becoming drier elsewhere.

Saturday.

Heavy snowfalls start to spread further N once again

Sunday.

Kent, E Anglia cut off from the rest of the UK. Steve Murr and Tamara have passed out with excitement and miss the further snowfalls.

Lovely assement TEITS, cant wait for next week, this might be the cold spell and classic Easterly everyone has been dreaming of! Hopefully GFS 18z will back up ECM later tonight

[Optimus Prime]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

Normal circumstances I'd agree but this is all winding itself up from what we currently have. It has much greater support then potentially going into this from Atlantic driven weather.

[bluearmy]

actually, i tend to find that one of the ecm charts verifies well between days 6 and 10. that gives us a pretty good chance in the southeast i'd say.

honestly snowbalz, these are sypnotics not seen for many years. they are within T180. dont get confused by what you've seen up till this point. as nick says - give it another 24 hours for the norwegian low to do the right thing.

and as for the 12z output - breakdown? the only breakdown on the horizon will be the nervous one that the authorites are likely to suffer when exeter upgrade the warnings they already have.

[If Wishes made Weather]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

- I sort of hope that your humble pie is big enough for two as I am also highly sceptical that the eastern part of the UK will resemble Buffalo. However, since it maybe would take only 50% of what is forecast to cause the usual power outages (remember in colder weather the system is under greater strain anyway owing to increased load) road closures, railways closed thing and problems with some food deliveries, it might be a thought to get a few tins of soup etc in and check the camping cooker has enough gas cartridges.

[SnowBallz]

I have to disagree here, the low earlier in the week was a completely different set up. It was never going to be a major UK wide snow event as the low was not running into any sort of depth of cold at the surface.

If the ecm verifies it will close down many areas of the UK especially eastern and se areas, we have i'd say one day to go modelwise to be really sure of what the trough over Scandi does.

No, it wasn't going to be a UK wide event - but, in the end, it turned into the biggest non-event since, well, the last one which the GFS predicted? You know as well as I do that, when the GFS predicted that LP moving up from about 5/6 days out, there was pandemonium about how much snow it would deliver as it crashed into the cold air feed chasing towards it from our NE. In the days leading up to it, the Welsh and those in the Midlands/North were falling over themselves wanting the LP to remain on a Northern track (as predicted by the GFS) as they believed that would deliver them their Armageddon snow event, while others maintained that it would be better for a sustained cold period, were the LP to follow a more Southerly track. In the end, it kinda went somewhere in the middle - and delivered zilch.

Ask yourself: how often do charts some 9/10 days out "verify" ? You know yourself, that 9th/10th January will probably be absolutely nothing like what's being shown on these charts. That's why I don't get all the hyperbole. Don't mind people getting enthusiastic, but at least be realistic. Shut down parts of the SE? More likely that roadworks would.

[TEITS]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

Well at this moment in time we can only go by what the ECM is suggesting. It might change tomorrow or it might not. However for the majority of the UK the ECM output is probably the best you can get.

When I first joined this forum everyone knew I was obsessed with E,lys but this is with good reason. A N/NW/NE/will never deliver snowfalls like an E,ly can. The simple reason is an E,ly is associated with the coldest upper temps which is why Kent currently has the lowest ensemble mean. Remember the greater the difference between the cold temps spreading across the N Sea the greater the convection. Now currently the ECM is suggesting upper temps of around -12/-14C across the N Sea which considering the time of year will bring huge amounts of convection.

What happened last week has no bearing on next week. This was a marginal situation due to the lack of cold.

[Mikel Nimbus]

WISE words ...... The charts will probably look different come Monday!

Beautiful looking charts... Yes! But really........

Last weekend that low was modeled to bring a possible foot of snow to Wales and the Midlands..! The SE and EA, midlands was suppose to be under heavy snow showers all day today -was also backed up by the countryfile forecast as well - niether happened

It's hardly a new trend we are seeing in the charts though. The reason most of the well established posters on here are getting excited is because the evolution towards the end of next week is perfectly plausible. The ensembles have been stunningly compact lately. All indications point to the charts pulling off what they suggest.

[Alex95]

Another thing to point out is that even if the high pressure ends up too close there could still be some snowfall. Early January 2003 saw significant snow to the SE with high pressure over Scotland, but even in the NE where the high was very close by a few inches fell.

January 2003:

Edited January 1, 2010 by alza

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

So in summary, eastern areas cut off from the UK due to snow, everywhere very cold, western areas largely dry?

[doublebarrel]

So in summary, eastern areas cut off from the UK due to snow, everywhere very cold, western areas largely dry?

hang fire mate ! believe it when its falling from the sky !! :unsure:

[Optimus Prime]

- I sort of hope that your humble pie is big enough for two

Hope I read that correctly.

Notice this time there is cold embedded underneath the high. Normally the cold is along the flow line, this time it's underneath the high pressure. Rare we get that these days. Surface and upper cold...

[Alex95]

Well at this moment in time we can only go by what the ECM is suggesting. It might change tomorrow or it might not. However for the majority of the UK the ECM output is probably the best you can get.

When I first joined this forum everyone knew I was obsessed with E,lys but this is with good reason. A N/NW/NE/will never deliver snowfalls like an E,ly can. The simple reason is an E,ly is associated with the coldest upper temps which is why Kent currently has the lowest ensemble mean. Remember the greater the difference between the cold temps spreading across the N Sea the greater the convection. Now currently the ECM is suggesting upper temps of around -12/-14C across the N Sea which considering the time of year will bring huge amounts of convection.

What happened last week has no bearing on next week. This was a marginal situation due to the lack of cold.

That doesn't apply to the North though. For the Northeast the ideal scenario is when the wind keeps switching from a NNE direction to a NE and to a ENE. Obviously most parts of Scotland would rather a Northerly, despite E'lies being quite good for the East Coast.

[Archie_Lewis]

No, it wasn't going to be a UK wide event - but, in the end, it turned into the biggest non-event since, well, the last one which the GFS predicted? You know as well as I do that, when the GFS predicted that LP moving up from about 5/6 days out, there was pandemonium about how much snow it would deliver as it crashed into the cold air feed chasing towards it from our NE. In the days leading up to it, the Welsh and those in the Midlands/North were falling over themselves wanting the LP to remain on a Northern track (as predicted by the GFS) as they believed that would deliver them their Armageddon snow event, while others maintained that it would be better for a sustained cold period, were the LP to follow a more Southerly track. In the end, it kinda went somewhere in the middle - and delivered zilch.

Ask yourself: how often do charts some 9/10 days out "verify" ? You know yourself, that 9th/10th January will probably be absolutely nothing like what's being shown on these charts. That's why I don't get all the hyperbole. Don't mind people getting enthusiastic, but at least be realistic. Shut down parts of the SE? More likely that roadworks would.

100% agree!

SE shut down??? No chance.. If these charts are showing 36/48hrs before then I will hold my head in shame!

I'm only going on the most likely option and the most likely option is these charts are eye candy and will most likely look different come Sunday!

If any member would like to explain to me why 'this time' is the one...and why I should believe that the se will shut down then please do!

I love ramping and the banter but Christ... It's very unlikely (the most likely option) (historic option)

[BristolBlizzard]

So in summary, eastern areas cut off from the UK due to snow, everywhere very cold, western areas largely dry?

lets hope a low comes along for the southwest to get snow.

[weather eater]

Very very nice ECM, but a word of caution the ECM output past 144hr changes more often than the Silvio Berlusconi drops his trousers. I think one or two are getting over excited, lets be honest the ECM will no doubt be different in the morning. We have had a great spell so far, but I must have seen the phrase the best charts of the Internet era so many times now, none of which have really lived up to some of the hype. I hate to sound as if I’m being negative here, because I’m really enjoying this spell, the best for a good few years already, but lets keep things in perspective. An analogy my wife has just given me is that model projections are like picking up the TV guide and reading that all your favourite programs may be on over Christmas, or they might not or possibly in the New Year. Or it kind of goes like this, Fridays TV guide says they are on, Saturdays guide anounces they are in fact not on after all, and Sundays guide they are on but at a different time, and Mondays paper informs you (in true model fashion) that in fact they have been put off till the following week. Better to save the excitement and see what actually happens.

[bluearmy]

as steve so often posts, we're just discussing what the models show and whether their evolution looks realistic. take yesterdays ecm 12z run. it wasnt and was discussed as such. given the other models and all ens, the ecm solution does look realsitic this evening and we are simply discussing what it might lead to as far as our weather is concerned.

it might happen, it might not. but its what the models show and thats what this thread is for. no problem in posters urging caution but they need to give some model based evidence to back this up.

[Cloud 10]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen.

On the other hand,many areas of northern england and especially SCOTLAND have had lying snow (and plenty of it) for over 2 weeks now.

So for these areas it certainly has not been an "anti climax"

I do hope that more southern areas can get some proper snowfall over the next week or so,and this looks pretty likely judging by the overall model output today.

[winter watcher]

Hmm.

Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter.

The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope.

Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

Ok firstly i disagree with all above

The lp system to our sw would not have brought a foot off snow to us western areas may have had a shout off something decent but just rain for your and my area. Secondly if you are after cold and snowy weather than its a blessing that the lp system did not approach our shores. And finally you say we are already in the event low temps last night i had a hour off light snow just after the midnight cant be bad can it? All i am saying is to take my advice and listen to the more experienced people who has been there done that and got the shirt and atm they are very exited and so should you be as well. Happy new year to you

[TEITS]

That doesn't apply to the North though. For the Northeast the ideal scenario is when the wind keeps switching from a NNE direction to a NE and to a ENE. Obviously most parts of Scotland would rather a Northerly, despite E'lies being quite good for the East Coast.

Always be exceptions but my point was in regards to the general population of the UK.

Another point I wish to add about the ECM. Now even im dubious of the duration of the E,ly as shown on tonights ECM. However a majority of the ECM ensembles must be showing an E,ly because otherwise the Met O 6-15 forecast wouldn't read as it does. However im still opting for the 48/72 hr E,ly.

[East Herts Snow]

London GFS Ensembles 850 Hpa temps mean is even lower and is now touching -12.

Edited January 1, 2010 by North Londoner