Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[BranMan]

Noticed the weather for the week ahead on Country Tracks was very interesting this morning......firstly Tomas Schaffernaker was introducing it and someone spelt his name wrong....it said Tomas Shareaknacker...I think someone at the Beeb was have a bit of fun...

anyway, Wales didn't seem to get much in the way of snow next week but neverltheless the temperatures are certainly going to plummet from Monday night and thats when all the fun beigns.....hopefully some snow for Wales into Tuesday and by saturday next week we could all be blanketted ......Tomas did say that some would get about 4 inches ( showed this in a hand gesture ) and other would get this much ( the hand gesture was about a foot and a half !!)

Going to be a really interesting week...I cannot be more stocked up, got quadruple everything stocked up....

I love the winter.I love the snow and I love the excitement waiting for it to happen...shame its now a proper annual event...hey, maybe it will be one day

Cwmbran, W Pontnewydd

150m asl

Se Wales

[Totoro]

Can't help noticing that it's a little colder today - had a maximum of 2c yesterday while today only got up to 1.1c and has already fallen to 0.5c

[Snowmadsam]

thats because of the westery that we had yesterday today we have more a eastly

[Cymro]

very cold here today little snow melt only in sunny locations and there it was a minimal.

[bennytes]

Noticed the weather for the week ahead on Country Tracks was very interesting this morning......firstly Tomas Schaffernaker was introducing it and someone spelt his name wrong....it said Tomas Shareaknacker...I think someone at the Beeb was have a bit of fun...

anyway, Wales didn't seem to get much in the way of snow next week but neverltheless the temperatures are certainly going to plummet from Monday night and thats when all the fun beigns.....hopefully some snow for Wales into Tuesday and by saturday next week we could all be blanketted ......Tomas did say that some would get about 4 inches ( showed this in a hand gesture ) and other would get this much ( the hand gesture was about a foot and a half !!)

Going to be a really interesting week...I cannot be more stocked up, got quadruple everything stocked up....

I love the winter.I love the snow and I love the excitement waiting for it to happen...shame its now a proper annual event...hey, maybe it will be one day

Cwmbran, W Pontnewydd

150m asl

Se Wales

the forecast is from 46:15 on here....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00pr2lt/Country_Tracks_North_Yorkshire/

[benb]

In my opinion-

Early section of 12z looking much better for Wales (for snowheads, anyway). Tuesday's precipitation arrives sooner and in greater volume.

'Warm' sector tiny and moving through quickly- you'd have to think that'd be snow right the way through, perhaps with the exception of the very coastal fringe.

Another ace day here. V. cold- no snowmelt in shade and only limited loss in the low sun.

Appreciate it while it lasts!

[Totoro]

thats because of the westery that we had yesterday today we have more a eastly

Indeed.

And down to -0.2c already.

[Bobby]

Man the snow ploughs!

Tuesday's mega-blizzard.

[Cymro]

Man the snow ploughs!

Tuesday's mega-blizzard.

Love the way people use the word blizzard, No that would not produce a blizzard look how light the precip totals are

[WINTRY WALES]

Man the snow ploughs!

Tuesday's mega-blizzard.

What do you reckon we would get if that came off??? :lol:

[DeepSnow]

Temp now 1.4C and falling, this could be our coldest night yet.

[benb]

Man the snow ploughs!

Tuesday's mega-blizzard.

Sarcy! It's better than it was and may well get better yet!

In this pattern, snow is going to be very hard to predict. Even today, one of the most benign days of the coming week, showers made it across the Pennines. This week is going to be throwing up a few surprises.

[Bobby]

What do you reckon we would get if that came off???

Love the way people use the word blizzard, No that would not produce a blizzard look how light the precip totals are

Was being sarcastic. Maybe a 1mm sprinkling if you're lucky.

Sarcy! It's better than it was and may well get better yet!

In this pattern, snow is going to be very hard to predict. Even today, one of the most benign days of the coming week, showers made it across the Pennines. This week is going to be throwing up a few surprises.

Does look like a bit more potential for Wednesday/Thursday but we'd have to get lucky.

Some interest too into Friday/Weekend... depends on how far north and west that low moves.

[Bobby]

Latest 12z shows a rainy/sleety mix anyway:

NAE that is.

Non event sorry people.

[djwayne]

Think some people are forgetting the models are predictions not exactly what will happen, in a situation like this the whole thing can chage within an hour let alone 48 hours away. I don't think anyone on here regradless of experience would stick their neck out and say what will happen as its simply too unpredictable. Need some more positivety in this thread as I am sure we wil get our fair share

[Marcus_surfer]

How will it rain?

[benb]

Latest 12z shows a rainy/sleety mix anyway:

NAE that is.

Non event sorry people.

I think it's a developing situation.

I'm not predicting blizzards, but I think generally it'll be snow (away from the immediate coastal fringe) and generally there'll be a couple of cms.

We'll know come Tuesday tea-time, anyway!

[J10]

very cold here today little snow melt only in sunny locations and there it was a minimal.

Indeed hardly any thaw today, pity this didn't happen yesterday.

[Totoro]

Looking a bit better now, the triple point has vanished and the warm front is now cut off and drifting down the Irish sea on its own:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

Edited January 3, 2010 by Totoro

[benb]

Looking a bit better now, trhe triple point has vanished and the warm front is now cut off and drifting down the Irish sea on its own:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax36s.gif

Agreed.

[J10]

Latest 12z shows a rainy/sleety mix anyway:

NAE that is.

Non event sorry people.

The NAE is looking very promising in terms in criteria needed for snow, the upper temps never get below -6c, Temps never get above 1c, and thicknesses are around 523m and 1290-1295.

In that sense that NAE charts is very surprising, especially considering the T+42 chart had more snow on it.

So I respectfully disagree with your call for a non event.

I think it's a developing situation.

I'm not predicting blizzards, but I think generally it'll be snow (away from the immediate coastal fringe) and generally there'll be a couple of cms.

We'll know come Tuesday tea-time, anyway!

I think your call for a few cms say 2-5cm generally, 5-10cm on hills may be about right.

The latest BBC forecast mentioned a snow band pushing south, which is different to that mentioned earlier. (Admittedly it did concentrate on snow accumulation in eastern areas 10-15cm. )

It is happening in the middle of the night, Today was very cold, tonight is going to be bitterly cold, tomorrow will hardly get above freezing, and a harsh frost will set in before the band pushes south.

As a result as it stands this event still looks on the right of marginal for most.

Looking a bit better now, trhe triple point has vanished and the warm front is now cut off and drifting down the Irish sea on its own:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

That is good news, we are so used to the warm sector messing things up (Before Christmas as an example, having this happening, helps our chances considerably.

[soupsurfer7]

Snow looking more and more likely as the week goes on. The bbc's week ahead forecast looked very promising on Friday, but it's very hit and miss - could be a major event, could be nothing.

Tuesday.doc

[Snowmadsam]

Snow looking more and more likely as the week goes on. The bbc's week ahead forecast looked very promising on Friday, but it's very hit and miss - could be a major event, could be nothing.

Indeed I think we will have to watch countryfile to find out

but lets keep our fingers crossed

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Looking a bit better now, trhe triple point has vanished and the warm front is now cut off and drifting down the Irish sea on its own:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax36s.gif

Yup the latest fax charts dont make much of that warm front and its further west- which is good.

Heres the 48h fax chart:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax48s.gif

Cold front pushing through and 528 Dam line covering the country.

The GFS Operational run hasnt been making much of this front i have noticed however the ensembles go for more precipitation

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs423.gif < GFS 12Z PPN chart

http://charts.netwea...thyr~Tydfil.png < PPN ensembles for Merthyr

http://charts.netwea...mbrokeshire.png < PPN ensembles for Pembrokeshire

Again the NAE run shows cold upper temps around the UK:

http://expert.weathe...010506_0312.gif

Certainly one to watch, hopefully the warm front idea isnt placed in the situation again- but keep an eye out for it

I suppose its fair to say as this cold front pushes south then most will see snow, however it still isnt clear how intense the front will be- hopefully it will be more than what the GFS Op run makes of it.

[benb]

Yup the latest fax charts dont make much of that warm front and its further west- which is good.

Heres the 48h fax chart:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax48s.gif

Cold front pushing through and 528 Dam line covering the country.

The GFS Operational run hasnt been making much of this front i have noticed however the ensembles go for more precipitation

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs423.gif < GFS 12Z PPN chart

http://charts.netwea...thyr~Tydfil.png < PPN ensembles for Merthyr

http://charts.netwea...mbrokeshire.png < PPN ensembles for Pembrokeshire

Again the NAE run shows cold upper temps around the UK:

http://expert.weathe...010506_0312.gif

Certainly one to watch, hopefully the warm front idea isnt placed in the situation again- but keep an eye out for it

I suppose its fair to say as this cold front pushes south then most will see snow, however it still isnt clear how intense the front will be- hopefully it will be more than what the GFS Op run makes of it.

Cheers for all the info!

Going to be really interesting seeing how this one turns out.