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South West England Cold Spell Discussion

Methuselah

By Methuselah
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
Posted

Sorry guys still up to armpits at work (have been since before 0400 and back here again same time tomorrow....) - - attached the latest set of modified NAE frames; note suggested wrap-around development post-midnight especially.

Best

ian

Thanks Ian, that looks better!good.gif

If it proves correct that is! LOL

Only jokingrolleyes.gif

This is one of those classic weather forecasters nightmares for picking out exact areas!

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

Sorry guys still up to armpits at work (have been since before 0400 and back here again same time tomorrow....) - - attached the latest set of modified NAE frames; note suggested wrap-around development post-midnight especially.

Best

ian

excellent images,you can make out as it nudge's East slightly then North/West or (West) before slipping more South

if Im correct Ian

Edited by dogs32
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

excellent images,you can make out as it nudge's East slightly then North/West before slipping South

Dogs, we looks like in the fireing line for the heavy stuff @ 03z...

I wonder if that will slip south or still be where its progged.

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

excellent images,you can make out as it nudge's East slightly then North/West before slipping South

No! blum.gif

Further South and West... :hi:

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

No! blum.gif

Further South and West... :hi:

lol...looks like Cotsworld's to me :hi:

Lynxus If I WAS STILL SMOKING I WOULD BE A CHAIN SMOKER BY NOW :hi:

Edited by dogs32
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Ian Fergusson Newbie

Ian Fergusson

Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
Posted

Thanks Ian, that looks better!good.gif

If it proves correct that is! LOL

Only jokingrolleyes.gif

This is one of those classic weather forecasters nightmares for picking out exact areas!

It's been the utter mare I always suspected and will prove so again through the night and tomorrow am. Welcome to my world. Still has developmental potential into the wraparound so don't give up watching the radar!

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gloucesterlad Apprentice

gloucesterlad

Posted
  • Location: Gloucester - Quedgeley
  • Location: Gloucester - Quedgeley
Posted

Sorry guys still up to armpits at work (have been since before 0400 and back here again same time tomorrow....) - - attached the latest set of modified NAE frames; note suggested wrap-around development post-midnight especially.

Best

ian

Many thanks Ian and its a real privilage to have someone of your stature posting regularly here. Don't envy your job at times as it must be devilsh hard work working out those areas at risk. As a newbie I have really appreciated your input here !

Regards

John in Quedgeley, Gloucester

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

lol...looks like Cotsworld's to me laugh.gif

Lynxus If I WAS STILL SMOKING I WOULD BE A CHAIN SMOKER BY NOW laugh.gif

Looks can be deceiving :o

I await the breakdown with the low stalling SW of the Isles of Scilly and Dartmoor getting an epic dumping before the cold air wins out... this is how it will happen right?! :o

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Still snowing here, Albeit VERY lightly grouples .

I just hope that 03z come soff like in Ians model he posted :drinks:

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

Snowing here again! giving a covering to the roads again.

Hmm micro climate Dartmoor strikes again.

Which way is the snow moving Jase?

That said, I've not looked outside recently, figured the fat lady had sung.

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Hmm micro climate Dartmoor strikes again.

Which way is the snow moving Jase?

That said, I've not looked outside recently, figured the fat lady had sung.

no she is not due to sing until Thursday I think for some :drinks:

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

With temperatures now below 0c settling on the roads again here despite it being gritted twice this evening

It just keeps snowing, gradually becoming more intense again

SK

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weather_freak Newbie

weather_freak

Posted
  • Location: Swindon, Wilts
  • Location: Swindon, Wilts
Posted

Hey guys! I'm new to the forum and in Swindon. I'm getting a bit confused with all these updates and changes in locations of the snow hitting.

Is it safe to say that Swindon will get snow tonight and will it still be as heavy as the 30-40cm of snow that Sky Weather are forecasting?

thanks! :D

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Mumbles Rookie

Mumbles

Posted
  • Location: Yeovil, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe t/ storms, rain, snow, wind!
  • Location: Yeovil, Somerset
Posted

Any snow for me?

Currently 0.4! bbbrrr, stay safe all x

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caz100 Rookie

caz100

Posted
  • Location: camborne CORNWALL........... :)
  • Weather Preferences: snow snow snow ..
  • Location: camborne CORNWALL........... :)
Posted

well ive just looked at the spotlight forecast and i dont think we will be getting any at all.....too far down, and i used to live in hampshire and they have a massive red over them lol....but i have the beaches come the summer lolol heheherolleyes.gif

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rbw Newbie

rbw

Posted
  • Location: Churchdown, Gloucester
  • Location: Churchdown, Gloucester
Posted

It's been the utter mare I always suspected and will prove so again through the night and tomorrow am. Welcome to my world. Still has developmental potential into the wraparound so don't give up watching the radar!

Well it happened - I really can't believe it. 5cm here in Churchdown +0.5C

Spot on forcasting - well done Ian.

R

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Hey guys! I'm new to the forum and in Swindon. I'm getting a bit confused with all these updates and changes in locations of the snow hitting.

Is it safe to say that Swindon will get snow tonight and will it still be as heavy as the 30-40cm of snow that Sky Weather are forecasting?

thanks! :D

Hi and welcome.

It is indeed looking possible for you to see some extreme snowfall overnight.

Im not sure if you have been lurking for a while before posting, so you may be aware that things are changing quickly. However it is looking good for you at the moment.

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Ripeberry Newbie

Ripeberry

Posted
  • Location: Edge of the West Cotswolds
  • Location: Edge of the West Cotswolds
Posted

Got a call from the school to come and pick up the kids at 2.30pm, we got to play in the snow for

about 1hour, then temp rose to +2c after the snow stopped and now it is at 0.9c and not moving.

Looks like school will be open in the morning...never mind :D

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weather_freak Newbie

weather_freak

Posted
  • Location: Swindon, Wilts
  • Location: Swindon, Wilts
Posted

Hi and welcome.

It is indeed looking possible for you to see some extreme snowfall overnight.

Im not sure if you have been lurking for a while before posting, so you may be aware that things are changing quickly. However it is looking good for you at the moment.

Thanks! Yeah i'm been lurking on the forums for a few weeks so i had a good idea but just finding it difficult to keep up with the changes in the predictions! I'm sure i'll get up to speed with everything soon enough. This is all new to me! All very exciting! :D

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Hi and welcome.

It is indeed looking possible for you to see some extreme snowfall overnight.

Im not sure if you have been lurking for a while before posting, so you may be aware that things are changing quickly. However it is looking good for you at the moment.

The middle is slightly pivoting down towards us

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

Just popped outside to take the wreath down and what have ya, and the snow that has fallen is frozen already and there is a bit of light snow falling... perhaps what Princetown had earlier and now working its way this way?

-3.4c here.

Least it isn't marginal. Just a distinct lack of any PPN!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Thanks! Yeah i'm been lurking on the forums for a few weeks so i had a good idea but just finding it difficult to keep up with the changes in the predictions! I'm sure i'll get up to speed with everything soon enough. This is all new to me! All very exciting! :drinks:

:yahoo:

Yeah it can be quite daunting sometimes.

The models in the winter just throw a wobbly and its never as simple as it is in the summer with storm forecasts ( however thats turned out to be a pain in the recent years )

As it stands i think the current situation is:

We have a low forming out to the west, This is dragging the PPN that went south earlier back north. However this is also now intesifying.

This northerly flow should also move eastwards ( as the low moves east )

I think where Swindon and the North / West will get effected is when this PPn thats currently making its way north across the east now starts to work its way back west ( along the low flow ) and then back south again.

Now i suppose this is where the issue of forecasting comes in.

The low could move as predicted or not ( its been a bit strange today )

depending on how it moves also changes what will happen for us up north and you guys further south and the guys on the west.

All in all,

Its very much a "watch the radar" scenario at the moment.

Also the PPN could quite quickly become intense or become light.

Where the PPN will be heaviest is hard to tell.

Things can change very quickly as the moist air from the south hits the cooler dry air.

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