South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

[flyer]

lol! the snow may be coming off your roof due to central heating - our neighbours is doing that. Still going up here but such tiny tiny flakes and lots of them. No...wait...they're getting a bit bigger again !!

Thanks flyer - sorry to sound stupid but what does advection mean?

Just seen a fox running down the road bless him!

Someone on the south west thread just posted:

"Oh no, just as I feared, Dorset is in the firing line according to the NAE, just as it was on the +48 a week ago!!

All you fellow Dorseters know what that means don't you? A last minute detour to the Isle of Bl**dy Wight again! Or... maybe, *crosses ABSOLUTELY everything*, just maybe - it means we have missed out so far in order to receive the motherload! Or maybe not... "

Would be good to get more this week but as Dorset hasn't got any so far I hope it works out for them!

Advection - A mixing of moisture in this case not dissimilar to convection pulled from the ocean . Watch clouds forming as they travel in land ,the moisture gets pulled aloft as it hits land and forms clouds. Unstable air rises much quicker and depending on temps in the upper layers rises until reaching freezing levels and condenses and falls as snow etc. Blah Blah

Edited January 11, 2010 by flyer

[slb97]

Thank you - still snowing here and going from very small to small flakes and back again.

[flyer]

Thank you - still snowing here and going from very small to small flakes and back again.

If you take a quick look at the rain today (meteo group radar) you can see the snow precipitation forming out of nothing as it comes in off the north sea. Lookes like the Northerners and Irish are getting quite a bashing.

Edited January 11, 2010 by flyer

[Dean E]

Now this was the setup that the met office were looking at for this morning, widespread light snow, with some moderate falls. About 20 hours late in my mind?

[slb97]

You could be right snowmania!

I agree with you about north/ireland - the showers just keep on comin'!!

[SunnySouthCoast]

lol! the snow may be coming off your roof due to central heating - our neighbours is doing that...

No, I have good loft insulation! The temp is still about 2C down here, has been slowly melting all day, helped along by the drizzle

[coxxy22]

well looks about it for us tonight lol

think im gonna jump into bed, night guys

[Dean E]

No, I have good loft insulation! The temp is still about 2C down here, has been slowly melting all day, helped along by the drizzle

Here we still have quite a lot of snow lying, not much melting but temperatures did reach 1.5c today, currently 0.6c

[flyer]

Looking at the projected charts for around Wednesday there is a large low approaching the southwest. It is possible if it comes in slowly it will get a feed from the cold continental air off that low to the south east and feed in lots of moisture to us potentially as lots of snow.

However if the low rushes in then the winds will swing to the southwest which will have atlantic air that may be warmer. Then it will depend more on mixing at the boundary of the high sat to our North East.

All to play for

Edited January 11, 2010 by flyer

[slb97]

Night Coxxy - thinking the same thing - can't wait for it to turn to bigger flakes or I'd be here forever lol!

[Dean E]

Looking at the projected charts for around Wednesday there is a large low approachinf the southwest. It is possible if it comes in slowly it will get a feed from the cold continental air off that low to the south east and feed in lots of moisture to us potentially as lots of snow.

However if the low rushes in then the winds will swing to the southwest which will have atlantic air that may be warmer. The it will depend more on mixing at the boundary of the high sat to our North East.

All to play for

Indeed. I have been reading in the model thread that there is still no clue how far it would move in, but there is a strong signal that it would take its time or even stall just over us, or over the south west. Its all up in the clouds at the moment in terms of forecasting and more a nowcasting feature

[slb97]

Looking at the projected charts for around Wednesday there is a large low approachinf the southwest. It is possible if it comes in slowly it will get a feed from the cold continental air off that low to the south east and feed in lots of moisture to us potentially as lots of snow.

However if the low rushes in then the winds will swing to the southwest which will have atlantic air that may be warmer. The it will depend more on mixing at the boundary of the high sat to our North East.

All to play for

I've been watching that too - seems a bit of uncertainty around whether it will fall as snow/sleet/rain and if it reaches us. The MO have put us on an advisory but the more experienced and knowledgeable posters don't think it will reach Hampshire anyway. Will be interesting!

[flyer]

Indeed. I have been reading in the model thread that there is still no clue how far it would move in, but there is a strong signal that it would take its time or even stall just over us, or over the south west. Its all up in the clouds at the moment in terms of forecasting and more a nowcasting feature

If it stalls then its game set and match to Fred (Blast from the past) and shades of 63.

[slb97]

If it stalls then its game set and match to Fred (Blast from the past) and shades of 63.

Hi - is Fred one of the more experienced posters? His name rings a bell..... If it stalls over us does that mean a lot of snow? (apols for my ignorance)

[Dean E]

In my opinion, not an expert, the band of ppn will slowly push into the south as far as say west sussex and the midlands. Then stall then move right along the south coast before it fizzles out. Seems like a dream, but you never know! Look at the 20cm we were meant to get today...

[flyer]

Hi - is Fred one of the more experienced posters? His name rings a bell..... If it stalls over us does that mean a lot of snow? (apols for my ignorance)

Only if it stalls in the right place. The flow on the extreme leading edge is more south easterly whereas towards the centre of the low the isobars are tight and swing round from the southwest.

Fred is one half of the Roger J Smith team that predict their thoughts 2 months prior to the event based on Moon phases and tide pulls together with solar activity.

Edited January 11, 2010 by flyer

[slb97]

Thank you! Interesting theory. All I know is that last week we weren't expected to get much snow and at the last minute poor old Dorset lost out because it moved a tiny bit east to us. Anything can happen.

[flyer]

Thank you! Interesting theory. All I know is that last week we weren't expected to get much snow and at the last minute poor old Dorset lost out because it moved a tiny bit east to us. Anything can happen.

Snowing more heavily here now and the radar has quite a dollop on it although right on the extreme edge.

Struth I must get some shut eye soooon

[slb97]

Just thinking the same thing. All stopped now anyway so nothing else to see. G'night.

[flyer]

Just thinking the same thing. All stopped now anyway so nothing else to see. G'night.

Night

[coxxy22]

had a bit of snizzle here this morning but my god the ice is deadly lol took me 40 mins this morning to get my kids to school lol

looking at the satelite there seems to be a squeeze starting, clouds comin from the east and west and we are sat right in the middle

Edited January 11, 2010 by coxxy22

[Basil_Fawlty_Walks_On_Water]

Looking at the 00z and 06z GFS, we could do really quite well on Wednesday...

[slb97]

Hiya,

Basil - you're further north than us aren't you so I think you may be right. Being on the coast I think we'll have rain, BBC shows heavy rain for Wednesday for us.

[coxxy22]

seems as if we are already seeing the push from the west, if you take a look at my earlier post you can see if comin in from the west

if you look at the radar (far sw)you can also see the small bits of ppn starting to be pushed in a more northeasterly direction as opposed to its previous nw direction

Edited January 11, 2010 by coxxy22

[CaptainHappy]

morning folks. had continuous snizzle here for some time now, with temps at 0.5 c . i can see there being sustained snizzle showers throughout today. i agree with coxxy. it appears there is a queeze developing right over us. wonder if it will produce anything of note. also agree with the changes to the sw with regards to direction. time to keep those eyes peeled on meto sat and radar