Cold Spell Discussion

[Iceni]

I find it hard to believe that anyone could be taken in quite so easily Iceni-or are you on a wind up mission.

Well I wouldn't have been 'taken in' if we hadn't all seen those CRU emails and 'Mike's Nature trick'… this sounds suspiciously like another one.

Here's the link: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/dominic_lawson/article6982310.ece

[johnholmes]

thanks for th link Iceni-having read it I stand by my earlier post.

Do you REALLY believe that comment is anything other than, either a misquote, for whatever reason, or, more possibly, IF it is a Met member of staff, not someone taking the p-i-s-s out of the media?

[Iceni]

thanks for th link Iceni-having read it I stand by my earlier post.

Do you REALLY believe that comment is anything other than, either a misquote, for whatever reason, or, more possibly, IF it is a Met member of staff, not someone taking the p-i-s-s out of the media?

Perhaps you should either email Dominic Lawson or comment on his blog.

I'm quite sure that taking the highest winter temperatures and creating an average out of them wasn't MetO protocol when you were working there, but nowadays, who knows? The facts are the MetO's lrfs for 2009 said we were going to have a 'barbecue summer' and a 'warm wet winter' — both patently absurd.

[MisfitDog3]

I think we can assume if someone was trying to fiddle the figures (if that is the suggestion) then they'd be a tad more subtle than that! I've never worked out what the actual perceived point behind all this alleged Climate Change Conspiracy is supposed to be? Have all the governments and many scientists got a job lot of electric cars they can't move?!! Arf! All very odd.

[drgl]

I think we can assume if someone was trying to fiddle the figures (if that is the suggestion) then they'd be a tad more subtle than that! I've never worked out what the actual perceived point behind all this alleged Climate Change Conspiracy is supposed to be? Have all the governments and many scientists got a job lot of electric cars they can't move?!! Arf! All very odd.

What do you think will happen to tax revenue when fossil fuels run out? Making it last as long as possible is in everyones interest when no viable alternative exists.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Perhaps you should either email Dominic Lawson or comment on his blog. both patently absurd.

Both patently wrong, but absurb? Did you say as much when they were issued?

[noggin]

.

It may be worth the UK looking into better home insulation as it would reduce heating bills all around, and may even help with air conditioning in the summer (keeping cool air in and hot air out).

That was heavily pushed and promoted and encouraged in the 1970s by the government and is why homes are insulated to the extent that they now are.

Everything possible was insulated against the coming ice-age! It was at that time that the cavity wall insulation industry took off. I did canvassing for a friend who set up a cavity wall insulation business.

[Timmytour]

What happened in January 1933?

Not sure about January but February saw one of the one blizzards of last century...perhaps due to the breakdown?

"This will be the warmest winter in living memory, the data has already been recorded. For your information, we take the highest 15 readings between November and March and then produce an average. As November was a very seasonally warm month, then all the data will come from those readings."

All this proves is that the warmer days of winter are getting warmer! Still I find it quite remarkable that last November alone provided enough data to ensure that this winters warmest days were warmer than any other winters. Still seems like quite a significant fact to me. What would be interesting to know is if the average temperature in March was declining. That could be indicative of a seasonal shift. If i was being alarmist I'd say it could indicate an imminent shift in the position of the north and south poles!

[johnholmes]

Perhaps you should either email Dominic Lawson or comment on his blog.

I'm quite sure that taking the highest winter temperatures and creating an average out of them wasn't MetO protocol when you were working there, but nowadays, who knows? The facts are the MetO's lrfs for 2009 said we were going to have a 'barbecue summer' and a 'warm wet winter' — both patently absurd.

hi Iceni

I've read the quote you gave several times and I now have a different take on it. By the way I will drop a line on to his blog to ask for clarification.

I think what he meant was that November was well above average. It therefore would seem to follow that December was less mild and barring some huge hike in temperatures January is unlikely to have anything to beat the November values. He must then be relying on February not exceeding any of those November values. If this all follows then the November numbers will, by default, be the highest 15 in the period 1 Nov-28 Feb, or am I wrong again?

[igloo]

i really dont think we will have the cold back this winter not from the east looks like rest of this winter will see are normal west winds take hold which sucks big time

i wouldnt say that things can change very quickly but the atlantic will at some point be in charge thats the norm

[Iceni]

hi Iceni

I've read the quote you gave several times and I now have a different take on it. By the way I will drop a line on to his blog to ask for clarification.

I think what he meant was that November was well above average. It therefore would seem to follow that December was less mild and barring some huge hike in temperatures January is unlikely to have anything to beat the November values. He must then be relying on February not exceeding any of those November values. If this all follows then the November numbers will, by default, be the highest 15 in the period 1 Nov-28 Feb, or am I wrong again?

So why didn't he say, 'this November has been the warmest on record" instead of "this winter is already…" surely an average for an entire season isn't calculated by cherry-picking the temperature anomalies from one month.

Anyway why do November figures get included in winter figures at all? Aren't they autumn ones? We've been consistently told on here that winter starts on 1st December — hence all the tickings off for the 'winter's over' posts a couple of months ago.

PS It would be good if you could use your inside knowledge to find out why such a bizarre statement has been made or who made it.

Edited January 12, 2010 by Iceni

[Thunder Snow]

If anyone is intrested ive updated my forecast on tonights event in my blog.

Edited January 12, 2010 by Thunder Snow

[johnholmes]

So why didn't he say, 'this November has been the warmest on record" instead of "this winter is already…" surely an average for an entire season isn't calculated by cherry-picking the temperature anomalies from one month.

Anyway why do November figures get included in winter figures at all? Aren't they autumn ones? We've been consistently told on here that winter starts on 1st December — hence all the tickings off for the 'winter's over' posts a couple of months ago.

PS It would be good if you could use your inside knowledge to find out why such a bizarre statement has been made or who made it.

Puzzled me too that November was quoted-no idea why.

Tried to contact the bloke you mentioned but not yet found a way of doing it.

[Timmytour]

So why didn't he say, 'this November has been the warmest on record" instead of "this winter is already…" surely an average for an entire season isn't calculated by cherry-picking the temperature anomalies from one month.

i've no inside knowledge here, I'm only hazarding a guess but.....

If he's saying that the average of the 10 warmest days of winter (winter being measured from Nov to March) is higher for this winter than any other and that's just using November's figs for this winter , then it sounds a fair enough statement to me. If the purpose is to take the 10 warmest days of winter then the average measured from them can only go up if the rest of winter is taken into consideration, and so the statement holds true whatever.

Of course that's only looking at the average warmth of the 10 warmest days of winter....it does not hold at all that winter as a whole is warmer.

[Thunder Snow]

Im suprised the chat room not packed with people. lol

[lizzieloo202]

Tis snowing quite hard in Cabourg

http://www.cabourg.net/meteocam/cam.php

Between Le Havre and Cherbourg

And Cherbourg itself

Edited January 12, 2010 by lizzieloo202

[Rustynailer]

Snowing here in freshwater since 1900hrs, but its wet and not sticking to our 4 inches existing snow its melting it.

I remember being frustrated by this up north in Cheshire in the 70's/80's... Patience winter is young...

[Iceni]

i've no inside knowledge here, I'm only hazarding a guess but.....

If he's saying that the average of the 10 warmest days of winter (winter being measured from Nov to March) is higher for this winter than any other and that's just using November's figs for this winter , then it sounds a fair enough statement to me. If the purpose is to take the 10 warmest days of winter then the average measured from them can only go up if the rest of winter is taken into consideration, and so the statement holds true whatever.

Of course that's only looking at the average warmth of the 10 warmest days of winter....it does not hold at all that winter as a whole is warmer. :unsure:

November isn't winter, it's autumn.

Or so we are told by people on here and I have to say I agree... 12 months divided by 4 seasons = 3 months, if November was winter, then February would be spring, and May, summer — which is wrong. Hence the ridicule heaped on those who were commenting 'looks like winter is over' the first week of December a few weeks ago, because winter had only just started.

Perhaps NW has different House Rules to the MetO, but I know which I prefer.

Edited January 12, 2010 by Iceni

[Eugene]

LOL@the guy thinking november is winter, geez the mild rampers will try anything to alter the fact this winter has been cold, infact take a look at this quote from a guy on TWO, it's like the current cold spell that started a month ago didnt take place at all, why didnt our ocean location and warm waters stop the easterlies we have had so far this winter.

My thoughts are that our ocean location and its warm waters will probably keep up marginally out of the east-based regime. There will be an easterly, but probably for Poland not for us

[MR EXTREMES]

i been reading the bbc news website they said milder weekend but colder on monday matt taylor bbc weather said this?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8455579.stm

[The PIT]

Well i got my prediction right over a week ago. Freezing rain or this case drizzle. Worst way a cold spell can go out.

[phil nw.]

Well i got my prediction right over a week ago. Freezing rain or this case drizzle. Worst way a cold spell can go out.

Maybe for you Pit but it`s Snowing here as it is in many locations.

Oh perhaps your prediction was for your location only then yes you were right then.

Edited January 13, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[MR EXTREMES]

Maybe for you Pit but it`s Snowing here as it is in many locations.

Oh perhaps your prediction was for your location only then yes you were right then.

yes indeed gobsmacked not been to sleep snow started falling start early yesterday evening as drizzle,

then snow grains then little flakes and its still snowing now about 1 or 2cm a covering.

but i expect a quick thaw today so im glad i stayed up to watch it im really happy.

[Timmytour]

November isn't winter, it's autumn.

Or so we are told by people on here and I have to say I agree... 12 months divided by 4 seasons = 3 months, if November was winter, then February would be spring, and May, summer — which is wrong. Hence the ridicule heaped on those who were commenting 'looks like winter is over' the first week of December a few weeks ago, because winter had only just started.

Perhaps NW has different House Rules to the MetO, but I know which I prefer.

Iceni... I agree with November being part of autumn...just to clarify....I'm not the one talking about the "winter being warmer" I'm only trying to make some sort of sense of what that bloke was trying to say. As you quoted from the article...

This will be the warmest winter in living memory, the data has already been recorded. For your information, we take the highest 15 readings between November and March and then produce an average. As November was a very seasonally warm month, then all the data will come from those readings

so, from his perspective, the average of the warmest 15 (sorry I was previously saying 10) days over this period of time (which he ) defines as winter) is a measurement that he seems to regard as determining how warm or cold winter has been.

I think his use of the measurement for that purpose is ridiculous. That aside it is quite intersting to note that even without using the potential warm days that might come along in February or March, it comes out as the warmest in living memory just using November alone (so may be even higher). I'm not sure in which part of the country the readings used for his research have been taken but it would be interesting to know. I think it's true to say that November was one of the mildest ones we've had, certainly since 1994.

[drgl]

Pit-it's been snmowing here for hours so your prediction may have been right for your area but i would say the majority have snow?

Timmytour-your sig sums me up too!! "The winter of 1981-82..If I hadn't seen such riches I could live with it being warm"

Indeed.............