Cold Spell Discussion

[Lazarus]

Interesting bit in the Times mentioning that even in '63 there were warm interludes like this one!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/uk_and_roi/article6982942.ece

[chionomaniac]

Interesting bit in the Times mentioning that even in '63 there were warm interludes like this one!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/uk_and_roi/article6982942.ece

Ha! They've clocked the forecast stratospheric warming.

[Dave Clarke]

Latest synoptic analysis by Paul Blight up on our front end, with snow depth estimates for tomorrow :lol:

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/

[lukemc]

Hi,

Do you think this year could resemble a less severe version of 1947 as an El Nino year (was 1947 an El Nino Year)? And if that is the case could that bode well for our summer as I believe the severe winter of 1947 was followed by a good summer (was that the case, can anyone correct me on that?) and if that is the case would a summer more similar to 2006 or 2003 (or 1995?) be more likely than on like the last three? Also, considering that fact that in El Nino years the latter part of the winter is often colder (for example in 1947 the brunt of the severe cold spell came in February) and the fact that February (and early March) are often the most blocked period of the winter (and not forgetting the possibility of a stratospheric warming event too!), could it be the case, rather than the milder February that some are predicting, that February actually turns out to be the coldest month of this winter with the cold and snow persisting into March? (Also remember even the likes of 1947 and 1963 had milder interludes) And if that did occur could it mean that this winter could then rival the likes of 1963? Be interesting to here your thoughts?

Luke

[Magadan]

Chaps, 2 years ago I spent the best part of a month in Kyrgyzstan (Jan & Feb) and while for the most part the cold was on a level way beyond anything I've ever known in the UK (you know, spit from an upstairs window and it hits the ground solid), there was nonetheless some drippy conditions during the daylight hours for a few days. I think our perceptions of a "proper" cold winter are continuous below freezing conditions when in fact that's not always the case even in seriously cold continental climates.

[FENDER.]

It looks like a mild and unsettled 2nd half for January. And with predictions of a very mild Feb to follow.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

It looks like a mild and unsettled 2nd half for January. And with predictions of a very mild Feb to follow.

Not according to Joe B. He's the "form-horse" & is calling a shocker for Feb !!!

[R.P. McMurphy]

It looks like a mild and unsettled 2nd half for January. And with predictions of a very mild Feb to follow.

Wow really? Please provide evidence of these predictions. Especially the ones for a mild February LOL you have to laugh at some of these statements on NW lately. Thanks for the giggle, just what I needed this early in the morning

[Northernlights]

Avalanche partially blocking the A9 at Drumochter this morning!!! Don"t think I have seen this happen before.

[drgl]

Hmm, i seem to remember predictions of a mild winter. FACT-no one has got a clue, only time will tell.

[FENDER.]

Funny how if you dare to mention the word mild, your post gets deleted. The models suggest a mild 2nd half to Jan. Just my opinion and surley One Im entitled to.

[johnholmes]

Not according to Joe B. He's the "form-horse" & is calling a shocker for Feb !!!

If you believe he is then I suggest you read carefully his comments about February-he does not predict a 'shocker' in terms of cold as far as I read his post?

hat post was no 298 at 0821 yesterday.

One of his comments I repeat below

, I think February will have the worse part of winter relative to averages from Germany eastward into Russia. There is likely to be more cold further southeast than there has been. The message is that winter, which will retreat over the continent to some degree in its severity will return but the worst will be over in the northwest compared to the areas targeted. So the Battle of Britain and France this winter, while not over, will be more of a skirmish than what it has been.

Note where he suggests Feb being worse than Jan-NOT the UK

.

I do prefer exact replications of what people have said not misquotes so I hope you don't mind me doing this?

there again, as OON pointed out English seems not to be his strong point and I may have mis understood what he meant-if that is the case I apologise for my post.

Edited January 12, 2010 by johnholmes

[R.P. McMurphy]

Funny how if you dare to mention the word mild, your post gets deleted. The models suggest a mild 2nd half to Jan. Just my opinion and surley One Im entitled to.

Nobody deleted your post, they moved it, besides, there is nothing and models showing NO mild February. If you wish to mention mild or anything, please show me a chart where it's going to be mild.

[devon lad]

Low level temperatures rising a little in the SW but on higher ground falling (e.g. see Dunkerswell).

dl

[FENDER.]

Nobody deleted your post, they moved it, besides, there is nothing and models showing NO mild February. If you wish to mention mild or anything, please show me a chart where it's going to be mild.

Did GP not predict a very mild Feb about a week ago, based on the upstream signals.

[loadsa]

Help needed.

Trying to work out what the winds are like dir/speed for south wales on sunday the 17th. I know its a long way out but any advice would be gratefully received

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes there were brief milder interludes in the winter of 1963- but the upcoming one looks likely to be more prolonged than anything we saw in January or February 1963- those may have had it turn milder over limited areas of the country for 1 or 2 days at a time.

After the drama of the blizzards, ice and sub-zero cold, the outlook for the coming week is for a slight thaw over much of Britain. The Arctic freeze is slowly giving way to a wave of slightly milder air trying to inch up from the southwest, giving a welcome respite. So why were so many forecasters suggesting as recently as the end of last week that the big freeze was set to carry on this week?

There does seem to be a simplistic view among the media that the higher the temperature, the better (except in summer). For some, we are indeed seeing a near-complete or complete thaw, easing the burden on grit supplies and overall disruption. But for others, we're seeing partial thaws and refreezing leading to hazardous slush and ice- which can be more disruptive than soft fluffy snow- and of course if we get any significant rain in the near future there is a risk of flooding resulting from the combination of rain and thawing snow. (Fortunately, the models aren't currently suggesting any).

The above said, I think that Times article is one of the better media pieces relating to the latest weather episodes with some good descriptions of the jet stream and the battle between the Atlantic and continental air. It's good to see them explaining "as is" and resisting the temptation to dumb down.

[NorthantsSnow]

Look at the size of that high pressure coming out of Siberia, its huge, reminds me of January 1933

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

What happened in January 1933?

I've forgotten how to get charts that old up.

[devon lad]

Temperatures continuing to drop at higher levels e.g. Dunkerswell at approx. 800 feet http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html but rising at lower levels e.g. Bristol http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

dl

[Coast]

What would the UK do if it snowed this much every year?

An oft-quoted reason for the problems we have been facing with snow in parts of the UK is that it would not be worth spending more money on infrastructure because the country experiences heavy snow so rarely.

news.bbc.co.uk

[Thundery wintry showers]

Very interesting article indeed, which makes some good points. It's reasonable to say that our infrastructure in the UK is based on the premise that we get mild moist snow free winters- especially in recent years.

It may be worth the UK looking into better home insulation as it would reduce heating bills all around, and may even help with air conditioning in the summer (keeping cool air in and hot air out).

[Methuselah]

Even basic things, like wearing an extra layer of clothing (oft forgotten in these days of ubiquitous central heating) might be quite sensible? Newcastle United supporters excepted, of course!

[Iceni]

The above said, I think that Times article is one of the better media pieces relating to the latest weather episodes with some good descriptions of the jet stream and the battle between the Atlantic and continental air. It's good to see them explaining "as is" and resisting the temptation to dumb down.

I found this nugget in the Times a couple of days ago from a MetO functionary:

"This will be the warmest winter in living memory, the data has already been recorded. For your information, we take the highest 15 readings between November and March and then produce an average. As November was a very seasonally warm month, then all the data will come from those readings."

So run that past me again… the MetO excludes the cold temperatures and then creates a winter 'average' from the warm ones?

Edited January 12, 2010 by Iceni

[Thundery wintry showers]

Chaps, 2 years ago I spent the best part of a month in Kyrgyzstan (Jan & Feb) and while for the most part the cold was on a level way beyond anything I've ever known in the UK (you know, spit from an upstairs window and it hits the ground solid), there was nonetheless some drippy conditions during the daylight hours for a few days. I think our perceptions of a "proper" cold winter are continuous below freezing conditions when in fact that's not always the case even in seriously cold continental climates.

I think across a large part of east France, Germany/Austria/Switzerland etc, the mild spells during a winter can be every bit as mild as our mild spells- 13 to 15C in February is by no means unheard of. The main difference is that cold spells are colder and more likely to have powdery snow.

I'm not totally familiar with the continental climate of Kyrgyzstan, but it must be a little warmer than that of Moscow which, while nearer the Atlantic, is much further north. Even Moscow can, on occasion, climb above 3C in January when there is a particularly strong feed from the Atlantic, leading to temporary thaws.

Even basic things, like wearing an extra layer of clothing (oft forgotten in these days of ubiquitous central heating) might be quite sensible? Newcastle United supporters excepted, of course!

This article might interest you:

http://newsarse.com/2010/01/08/coldest-night-forces-newcastle-residents-into-long-sleeves/

[johnholmes]

I found this nugget in the Times a couple of days ago from a MetO functionary:

"This will be the warmest winter in living memory, the data has already been recorded. For your information, we take the highest 15 readings between November and March and then produce an average. As November was a very seasonally warm month, then all the data will come from those readings."

So run that past me again… the MetO excludes the cold temperatures and then creates a winter 'average' from the warm ones?

I find it hard to believe that anyone could be taken in quite so easily Iceni-or are you on a wind up mission.