Cold Spell Discussion

[Buzzit]

Hi All

I know its not model related but dont know where to raise this question

Watching the NW 5min radar today I have noticed precip basically coming from NE/ NEE

However everytime I go to the NW Future Radar it is pushing the precip up from the S

(which obviously is not happening)

Usually i note the future radar sort of follows the 700 vectors but wondering what is the reason

for the future radar been 'out of sorts' today ?

[Terminal Moraine]

So far this year, the mean is now standing at -5.7C

I like to imagine it's Nov' 30th and you're posting that.

[damianslaw]

The longevity of this cold spell is beginning to get very interesting. It's currently the 3rd-longest cold spell here in the last 35 years with today being the 26th day of the spell, exceeding that of 1991 by two days and counting.

A way to go though to catch 1979 which had a 37 day cold spell or 1986 which had a 40 day spell.

I'll wait until the end of it to calculate the mean temp' of the spell and see how it compares with its predecessors.

For anyone interested the definintion of a cold spell is adapted from Brazell's 'London Weather' and is taken as a period of at least 7 days when the max' temp' does not exceed 2.9c but in any 7 day period one day can reach a max' of 2.9c-4.4c.

Interesting how you don't mention 81/82 in your post, the winter that the BBC keeps comparing this winter so far too.

Glad someone has made comparisons with 1986, Feb 1986 was persistently cold, late jan 86 wasn't particularly mild neither and early March 1986 was very cold, I'm sure 1986 must be beating the current spell in temp stakes, but maybe the BBC are just referring to 81/82 for comparison in terms of the stage we are at in the winter, i.e. up to this point winter 85/86 had been a fairly mild affair, it is misleading though and some may believe that there has not been an equally cold spell since of similiar duration since 81/82, but as you say 1986 beats anything this winter so far has delivered in terms of duration of comparable cold (colder still I stay), and 91 possibly in some other areas, with I bet jan/feb 85 in some other spots.

Edited January 9, 2010 by damianslaw

[Lincs Observation]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/01/a-frozen-britain-turns-the-hea.shtml

[dave79]

Blimey, temperatures only 3c below normal...big warm-up!

Low pressure on the 18z undercutting the high..let the easterlys begin once again.

ok here's a question, we have just over a foot of snow lying on the ground in places, if temps remained around the 3/4 degree mark all week here in Teesside, how much of the snow would dissapear?

[Optimus Prime]

but as you say 1986 beats anything this winter so far has delivered in terms of duration of comparable cold (colder still I stay)

You need to go back and look at the statistics. February 1986 was cold because of the persistance of it. Here in the south it was slightly less cold then this month with no snowfall hardly at all.

This January so far has been colder, snowier and more wintry then February 1986. The first 10 days of this month looks like being the coldest since 1894.

[The PIT]

Interesting how you don't mention 81/82 in your post, the winter that the BBC keeps comparing this winter so far too.

Glad someone has made comparisons with 1986, Feb 1986 was persistently cold, late jan 86 wasn't particularly mild neither and early March 1986 was very cold, I'm sure 1986 must be beating the current spell in temp stakes, but maybe the BBC are just referring to 81/82 for comparison in terms of the stage we are at in the winter, i.e. up to this point winter 85/86 had been a fairly mild affair, it is misleading though and some may believe that there has not been an equally cold spell since of similiar duration since 81/82, but as you say 1986 beats anything this winter so far has delivered in terms of duration of comparable cold (colder still I stay), and 91 possibly in some other areas, with I bet jan/feb 85 in some other spots.

I presume they're referring to 81/82 due the temperatures and the amount of snow. Here we aren't anywhere near 81/82 in depth of snow although the period Dec to Jan is still up in the air for temperature. Dec was colder and despite a mild start recorded some really low temps. Considering the country overall 81/82 would be a good comparison as some places have experianced very low temps and lots of snow.

[Terminal Moraine]

ok here's a question, we have just over a foot of snow lying on the ground in places, if temps remained around the 3/4 degree mark all week here in Teesside, how much of the snow would dissapear?

That depends to a large extent on the dewpoint. If the dewpoint remains around or below 0c there will be only a slow thaw even with maxima around 4c but if the dewpoint rises above 0c, particularly if it gets as high as 3c it would clear a lot of snow in a week; you'd probably be left with snow patches covering less than half the ground.

[The PIT]

I've seen about 10 inches of snow disappear in about half n hour. Didn't even have time too take next doors puppy out for a walk in the snow which it hadn't seen. One the fastest melts I've ever seen.

[paul tall]

I've seen about 10 inches of snow disappear in about half n hour. Didn't even have time too take next doors puppy out for a walk in the snow which it hadn't seen. One the fastest melts I've ever seen.

I've never seen anything like that!

[dave79]

I've seen about 10 inches of snow disappear in about half n hour. Didn't even have time too take next doors puppy out for a walk in the snow which it hadn't seen. One the fastest melts I've ever seen.

which of the winter months was that in PIT?

[Terminal Moraine]

Interesting how you don't mention 81/82 in your post, the winter that the BBC keeps comparing this winter so far too.

Here the 1982 cold spell was relatively short, lasting 11 days from Jan 6th-16th. It was however the coldest of them all with a mean temp' of -3.4c for the whole spell. The mean max' temp' was -0.6c which was beaten by several other spells but the mean min' of -6.2c was exceptional for this site.

[Stargazer]

Not seen snow vanish that fast, but not far off...

There was an unusual snowstorm in March 1986 (if I recall correctly) that swept across in a narrow band overnight from the Severn estuary to the Isle of Wight, depositing about 6 inches on Southampton (I think it was the greatest snow depth we had there in the time I lived there from 1981 to 2002, including winter 1981/2). By lunchtime the temperature was around 7 deg C and the snow had pretty much all gone.

Edited January 9, 2010 by Stargazer

[The PIT]

which of the winter months was that in PIT?

I don't know which year but I think it was early spring. I was in junior school it snowed all day until school closed. ran home hoping too see play in snow not a chance.

[Snowyowl9]

I've seen about 10 inches of snow disappear in about half n hour. Didn't even have time too take next doors puppy out for a walk in the snow which it hadn't seen. One the fastest melts I've ever seen.

Was it raining heavy or just mild and windy.

wind will thaw snow fast when it`s mild.

I`ve never seen snow thaw that fast not even in april!!

Edited January 9, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[The PIT]

Was it raining heavy or just mild and windy.

wind will thaw snow fast when it`s mild.

I`ve never seen snow thaw that fast not even in april!!

No the sun came out and the temp shot up.

[Terminal Moraine]

Was it raining heavy or just mild and windy.

wind will thaw snow fast when it`s mild.

I`ve never seen snow thaw that fast not even in april!!

I've never seen a thaw that fast either. The fastest I can remember, and I can't recall the year, was a 20cm fall by 9.00 one evening which had completely disappeared by 5.00 the next morning.

[Snowyowl9]

I see it was in the spring anyway,the sun would do it on lower ground.

I`ve seen quite a few inches of snow thaw fast in february in the sun sometime in the 90`s can`t remember the year,lots of water about and it felt quite warm.

[The PIT]

I'm beginning too think tomorrows forecast of snow is going tits up. Nothing really showing on the radar. Plus temps are rising.

[Snowyowl9]

Theres a little snow coming here on the radar,a few flakes falling now,wind has certainly picked up

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

ten inches of snow thaw in half an hour I really doubt it mate! maybe 4 inches but ten inches in half an hour thats extreme! an inch every three minutes hmm really unlikely!That would take a seriously mad temp swing for that to happen like 1degrees to 20 degrees and even still that would be unlikely!

Scott

[Great Plum]

It seems that the forecst was quite a bit out for the south east overnight... Instead of temps os -2 and light snow, I have +1 and light sleet! It looks like the weather all went west and we warmed up a lot quicker here... doesn't make the comments of 'this cold block is going nowhere' when we warm up from the east!!

What happened?

[phil nw.]

It seems that the forecst was quite a bit out for the south east overnight... Instead of temps os -2 and light snow, I have +1 and light sleet! It looks like the weather all went west and we warmed up a lot quicker here... doesn't make the comments of 'this cold block is going nowhere' when we warm up from the east!!

What happened?

Latest fax shows the upper warm front across England at midnight.

This has obviously helped to modify ground temps along with the wind off the warmer N.sea.

Many stations up and down the East coast reporting temps 2-3C and Bulmer was 4C recently.

Edited January 10, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

2.4C here right now, which is a staggering 17 degrees warmer than this time 48 hours ago.

[snowflakey]

Latest fax shows the upper warm front across England at midnight.

This has obviously helped to modify ground temps along with the wind off the warmer N.sea.

Many stations up and down the East coast reporting temps 2-3C and Bulmer was 4C recently.

Looking at the Fax above it looks to me as though were are not out the wood yet as regards this cold spell.I haven't seen the latest model outputs, but that block could quite easily reinserts itself