Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[woldsowl]

The shower activity, be it very light has intensified recently, this could possible suggesta reason for the increase in your temperature.

It's been more or less dry this afternoon, just the odd flurry with the showers more to the South of me.

The temps I've been looking at are at http://www.trafficwe....jsp?client=267

And from Brid to York all stations are showing rises with many now above freezing.

Should add, DP steady at -6.

Edited January 9, 2010 by woldsowl

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

The Humber is too small and shallow to really affect the weather much, when I lived close to it the warming effects extended only 100-200 metres inland or so. You dont get streamers in general either as its not a perfect funnel shape like the Thames for example. Plus for that you'd require a south-easterly which involves a very short sea track, so pretty poor shower activity anyway. The big thing for us around here is the moderation from the North Sea. Dewpoints will rise as the front arrives so we want them well below freezing just beforehand.

Is there much chance of the dews being below freezing before hand? They are currently. What are your personal views on this, as I know gfs says positive figures. Thanks

[SnowRules]

The latest BBC Forecast looks promising..

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

You can never reliably tell what will fall from the sky in these setups as they are pretty marginal. It'll be a case of waiting to see what conditions are like just before the precipitation arrives. Im always sceptical of of these frontal precipitation events from the east as they are more often than not rain or sleet near to the coast and low ground in eastern parts. Its a forecaster's nightmare because out of the typical signs you use whether to predict rain or snow you get some that are favourable and others that are not. As it stands, 850hPa temperatures and 850-1000hPa thickness levels look very good, but the zero degree level is around 450metres which isnt so great. As John mentions the 500-1000hPa thickness levels look poor but arent really too important in this scenario as the warm air associated with the warm front tends to ride ahead over the top and not affect things too much further down. I think Id be much happier if the airflow was more stagnant beforehand as we'd get some good sub-zero temperatures and less mixing of the air. Theres also the issue of if the precipitation is heavy enough, GFS says yes, NMM says no. If its light then its more likely to be rain or sleet as that zero degree level wont fall.

It really is a nowcast situation, because as it stands theres really no agreement whether the precipitation will actually make it this far north or not, just some 24 hours out!

From my experience of using the NMM model, it does often seem to underdo the amount and intensity of any ppn that occurs.

[Matt Jones]

Its just above 1C here, been between -1 and 2C for about 3 days now night and day, about 10cm on the grass less on other surfaces. BBC forecast looks good though I'd expect some blue patches to appear close to the coast on forecasts tomorrow, inland areas need not worry, think the met office warnings show this clearly, nearer the coast alot will go down to how heavy the sleet/snow is. I think the cold spell lowering the SST will help alot if we can get a good cold spell here in feb.

[Harsh Climate]

The latest BBC Forecast looks promising..

Dont get 2 excited now fella! You could be on the verge of a huge dump mate! (lol) What ever we get in these situations, bradford/halifax/skipton allways do that little bit better

[johnholmes]

the latest lrf I've done can be found at the link below

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/60173-lrfs-by-jh/

[Harsh Climate]

Its just above 1C here, been between -1 and 2C for about 3 days now night and day, about 10cm on the grass less on other surfaces. BBC forecast looks good though I'd expect some blue patches to appear close to the coast on forecasts tomorrow, inland areas need not worry, think the met office warnings show this clearly, nearer the coast alot will go down to how heavy the sleet/snow is. I think the cold spell lowering the SST will help alot if we can get a good cold spell here in feb.

I do believe the north sea SSts to be 1-2 degrees colder than normal, cant remember where i saw the data though..

[Lewis]

Is there much chance of the dews being below freezing before hand? They are currently. What are your personal views on this, as I know gfs says positive figures. Thanks

The 00z and 06z, 12z skew charts showed a max dew of 0.3c, which is still supportive of snow, it's snowed for me at 2c but thats due to the freezing level being very low..

I'll take a look at the 18z when it rolls out. Thats the big one.

I really would not worry yet.

To answer other people's questions regarding the GFS shows this but yet the BBC/Met Office show that...

The GFS is an american model, it's not part of the euro's. It has a tendancy also with its lower resolution to over cook locally and fairly widespread the dew points and surface temperatures, not only that, we only have the GFS as the main model freely avaliable too us. If there was more models that had the same outputs and charts for example thickness,dews, isotherm etc we would compare to other models.

The only other model is the ECM, which we only see a small part of each run. We only get the surface pressures on that, and also huge timeframe difference between each model. I can never see the ECM becoming avaliable at any price, well at least not at the moment.

Now Casting is important, keep an eye on your dews, temps, etc at the time the precipitation is about too hit, look at the satellite charts also. If you live close to the East coast/ North Sea, make sure you keep an eye on the wind direction.

And also keep checking on the BBC forecasts, you will get a feeling right away when they have a different view.

Hope this helps everyone

[sparky1972]

well i think i will go to bed tonight expecting it to be raining tomorrow, if its snowing its a bonus,

[gobbyash]

the latest lrf I've done can be found at the link below

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/60173-lrfs-by-jh/

Cheers John

So in summary, you're LRF is - 'I'm not sure'.

gobby

[Schnee]

When does the 18z come out?

[Lewis]

Ill put my neck on the lines, other than extreme coastal counties (right on the coast, and i mean right on it). It will snow tomorrow.

Where the hell the metoffice and BBC get heavy snow Monday from for us with the warning they issued i don't know!

Lewis

When does the 18z come out?

Starts rolling out at 9:30 mate

[sparky1972]

Ill put my neck on the lines, other than extreme coastal counties (right on the coast, and i mean right on it). It will snow tomorrow.

Where the hell the metoffice and BBC get heavy snow Monday from for us with the warning they issued i don't know!

Lewis

lewis that makes me feel a bit better, i can never decide weather i am considered on the coast or inland

[fazzafarrand]

well i think i will go to bed tonight expecting it to be raining tomorrow, if its snowing its a bonus,

I'm going to go to bed drunk:drunk:

[grab my graupel]

When does the 18z come out?

Here you are mate

Best bookmark it

[Schnee]

Here you are mate

Best bookmark it

Ooohhh cheers.

[winterof79]

Ooohhh cheers.

Big RobMacs update at 19.55 on 24 says no rain, his words.Even commented on when have you ever seen a graphic showing all snow.

[PMPhotography]

Big RobMacs update at 19.55 on 24 says no rain, his words.Even commented on when have you ever seen a graphic showing all snow.

Sounds good to me!

[woldsowl]

Just been outside and noticed the wind has picked up considerably, so it must be this that's raising the temp with a bit of North Sea modification. (I'm 10 miles inland).

Drove into Driffield late afternoon and there was some quite decent drifts starting to form. The snow plough has been up and down through the village all evening, so I guess they're struggling to keep it open now as it runs N-S with the wind right angles to it.

[grab my graupel]

Will open a new thread in a few minutes

[Richard Lake]

Sounds good to me!

Yeah, but forecast the other day showed the whole of east and south yorkshire and lincolnshire hidden underneath a sea of blues not purely the coastline.

[grab my graupel]

link to the new thread is below - will close this shortly