General Model Output Discussion

[PB22]

Sunday a little cooler again, but generally most places are near to normal:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1261.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1262.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn12617.html

I expect the Met Office extended outlook will catch up tomorrow as it seems somewhat at odds with the output.

UKMO 12Z very similar to GFS 12Z at T+96:

And not too different at T+120:

Those low heights over Greenland will certainly not help future prospects for cold weather returning.

hmmm mild or not as harsh cold as it currently is?

10C or above is mild in January regardless of location IMO.

6 or 7C is around normal for the south, and 4 or 5C in the north.

[igloo]

by looking at todays model outputs it looks very likely that for the foreseeable future the altantic will be in charge with mild south westerlies in charge i wonder how long before these people who complain about the bitter cold will start complaining about rain and gales every other day not long i think

[PB22]

No deep cold anywhere near us by T+156:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1561.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1562.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn15617.html

Settled in the south and a touch of frost by night, but nothing compared to recently.

[johnholmes]

I think you misunderstand my point, John. I was saying you can't really base an outlook on one set of runs, I wasn't saying they were basing their forecast on one set of runs and in anycase I was showing that GFS 06z mean chart shows how close the cold air was still to the UK and the Met Office outlook is not way off.

sorry kevin my apologies-your explanation makes it clear

I think the overall point that comes out of John's rant ain his other post is that some people could do with looking at the model outputs more objectively instead of letting personal preferences interfere with their perception of what is and isn't likely to happen.

precisely Ian

Edited January 12, 2010 by johnholmes

[Snowly does it]

Similar output to earlier - 1060 Siberian HP cell a little too far East and the Atlantic held at bay with us in the middle - one mild day and then some rather average looking output, milder than usual in Ireland and Scotland who are more at risk of SWerly winds riding up the HP cell, but still it is eyes NE to see what transpires as it is clear the Atlantic isn't coming through the Scandi block - its all a question of how far the ant can nudge it.

[John Cox]

Hi John,

Thank you for all the model out posts over the cold spell.

I love Steve Murrays posts and TEITS etc.

"If I want an absolutely "Met Office" type report then I always turn to your posts. You keep my feet very firmly on the ground and I like that.

I apologise-so mods please remove if you wish.

I have to admit I had hoped as I make a reasonable % of constructive posts into all areas of the weather forum, and have done so over the past 5 years, that the occasional transgression might be allowed but no matter-hit the complain button and have admin or a mod delete it.

[PB22]

UKMO 12Z slightly different to the GFS for the same time, but not much joy for cold lovers with the Atlantic looking more dominant and the high to the east retreating:

All a long way off though.

GFS FI offers little joy in the early stages, but will the ensembles offer some later?

[nick sussex]

The gfs and ukmo in generally good agreement with a cut off low helping to bring a cold surface flow back in the outlook. This is quite crucial so we'll need to see this verify. Overall though theres still a chance that any milder weather will be shortlived.

Edited January 12, 2010 by nick sussex

[johnholmes]

An LRF from John or Nick or TWS would be helpful. [pretty please?]

I did a post somewhere in the model thread this morning to try and give my view on what seems most likely-aside from my preference, which believe it or not some of you is for cold, frost and snow-so long as its not permafrost as I experienced in 1962-3 and to a rather less extent in 1947!

this is what I posted if I may be allowed to repeat it-can't find it I'm afraid

Stephen

I try to make a point of not name dropping unless I either pm them first or directly refer to them in a post within the thread-so no names.

the names are not important its what I'm trying to get us all to do-that is compare the models and whatever else is available to us on the web and make as unbiased a commentary on them as we can. NOT to show our preference in the posting be it for warm or cold.

I hope that also answers the query from mick asking what I meant. Rant yes but is it too much to expect those with the necessary knowledge to post WITHOUT showing their preference?

[sandstorm2]

GFS 1200 tries very hard to bring in the cold from the East but just fails, this is really in FI at +240, up till then we are in a run of more average temps.

SS2

[johnholmes]

found it

apologies for those getting hacked off with my posts but for anyone who wishes to see how I see the mid to longer term showing on the models this is what I posted earlier.

Below is the main apart of what I posted last evening concerning the longer term

One of the major differences in the next week as compared to the week past is the position of the two main troughs-west of and east of the North American continent.

Both are about 30 degrees further east on the predicted NOAA 500mb anomaly charts. This, in turn, means the upper ridge is that much further east; its over the far NE of Norway or north Russia as opposed to being over the UK, or a touch NW of the UK. The pattern, of each of those wavelengths is fairly slow moving. However, the one now and the past week means the UK on the cold side, the predicted pattern suggests on the warm side (warm being a very relative term), thus no deep cold and a more unsettled spell of weather, or perhaps more accurately a more Atlantic type pattern. Mainly Pm or rPm but not true Pm or even less Am (Arctic).

Just how the Pacific jet will react in all this is unclear but it seems to be defaulting, as NOAA comment, to the position in late November. This MAY mean a return is on the cards, as per the post in the Technical thread by GP, or it may not. On a differing time scale the AO has today shown a signal for falling again. Perhaps this is linked to the teleconnections which GP refers to as a 'reload' for the third week in January.

What I would add having time to sleep on it and seeing further output across the Atlantic is this.

There is less and less sign of any immediate return to any cold weather. The Pacific jet is driving things east. Just how this almost 'split' flow coming into the States will affect downstream is unclear. In the 7-10 day period it simply has the effect of pushing any 'real' cold further east as the major Atlantic trough becomes the main player. There are signs on the various circumpolar charts of the whole wave train beginning to move east, only slowly, and at the same time POSSIBLY showing some sign of buckling way west(USA area) but its not yet clear. The 500mb does show signs of building pressure over the east of the states. IF this happened and it's a big IF it would be a similar evolution to what occurred in mid December. However, then most other links also supported a block establishing itself. From the 30mb Stratosphere temperatures through the Tropics feedbacks to the AO and NAO. Today there is little sign of this, the 30mb temperature(I agree its only a quick snapshot but not a bad indicator of events above the Tropopause in my view), Tropics, AO and NAO are nowhere near as supportive of this developing into a major block. Having said that the upper ridge and its surface high continue to build way east of the UK.

Currently I would favour mild into February against cold into February at about 60-40.

I think if there is going to be some kind of 'link' up of the various factors for another cold spell then its beyond the start of February for it to begin to start taking effect. As to whether this will be from the NE or NW I honestly have no idea.

Edited January 12, 2010 by johnholmes

[PB22]

found it

apologies for those getting hacked off with my posts but for anyone who wishes to see how I see the mid to longer term showing on the models this is what I posted earlier.

Below is the main apart of what I posted last evening concerning the longer term

One of the major differences in the next week as compared to the week past is the position of the two main troughs-west of and east of the North American continent.

Both are about 30 degrees further east on the predicted NOAA 500mb anomaly charts. This, in turn, means the upper ridge is that much further east; its over the far NE of Norway or north Russia as opposed to being over the UK, or a touch NW of the UK. The pattern, of each of those wavelengths is fairly slow moving. However, the one now and the past week means the UK on the cold side, the predicted pattern suggests on the warm side (warm being a very relative term), thus no deep cold and a more unsettled spell of weather, or perhaps more accurately a more Atlantic type pattern. Mainly Pm or rPm but not true Pm or even less Am (Arctic).

Just how the Pacific jet will react in all this is unclear but it seems to be defaulting, as NOAA comment, to the position in late November. This MAY mean a return is on the cards, as per the post in the Technical thread by GP, or it may not. On a differing time scale the AO has today shown a signal for falling again. Perhaps this is linked to the teleconnections which GP refers to as a 'reload' for the third week in January.

What I would add having time to sleep on it and seeing further output across the Atlantic is this.

There is less and less sign of any immediate return to any cold weather. The Pacific jet is driving things east. Just how this almost 'split' flow coming into the States will affect downstream is unclear. In the 7-10 day period it simply has the effect of pushing any 'real' cold further east as the major Atlantic trough becomes the main player. There are signs on the various circumpolar charts of the whole wave train beginning to move east, only slowly, and at the same time POSSIBLY showing some sign of buckling way west(USA area) but its not yet clear. The 500mb does show signs of building pressure over the east of the states. IF this happened and it's a big IF it would be a similar evolution to what occurred in mid December. However, then most other links also supported a block establishing itself. From the 30mb Stratosphere temperatures through the Tropics feedbacks to the AO and NAO. Today there is little sign of this, the 30mb temperature(I agree its only a quick snapshot but not a bad indicator of events above the Tropopause in my view), Tropics, AO and NAO are nowhere near as supportive of this developing into a major block. Having said that the upper ridge and its surface high continue to build way east of the UK.

Currently I would favour mild into February against cold into February at about 60-40.

I think if there is going to be some kind of 'link' up of the various factors for another cold spell then its beyond the start of February for it to begin to start taking effect. As to whether this will be from the NE or NW I honestly have no idea.

Thanks for your thoughts John, an excellent read as always.

Would definitely agree that the trend is edging further and further away from a potential colder end to January. Perhaps we have just had winter! (That's a joke before I get lynched!)

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think there is good cause for optimism that the atlantic flurry over the weekend will be shortlived, but tonights 12z output so far taken at face value suggests that another colder reload may be some way off. Not that I think that many people were expecting to see sunshine and snow showers by Monday again anyway.

Strange and rather unnerving to see that jet going through Iceland again - it is quite a strange and rare sight this winter.

In order to get the cold back west again we will need to see that old foe go back into its shell again. Otherwise the cold air will stay well to the east of us - although it is possible that the models will overcook the strength of the jet. It wouldn't be the first time that has happened.

You could actually argue that on the basis that the UKMO and GFS pretty much agree overall to t144 then the possibility is still very much there for the Siberian/Scandinavian tigress to push her way back again. The overall pattern and further outlook is not really any different to before.

Edited January 12, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Frosty.]

The current pattern is quite reminiscent of January 1996 but for now we have much colder air in the circulation than in early to mid Jan '96, and so we are indeed looking at a snow event for many tomorrow. From Friday onwards it looks set to turn milder- but it may or may not be temporary.

Regarding the MetO outlook, they must think that the models are predominantly underdoing the strength of the Scandinavian High and expect the models to fall more into line with yesterday's ECMWF outputs. This is quite a plausible scenario and just a small shift west from the GFS T+192 ensemble chart would support it.

Thanks for the reply Tws,

It's a very messy and complex pattern isn't it, anyway, the GFS 12z shows less cold air into the uk by late friday with positively mild air into sw england and ireland. The weekend looks windy and unsettled with temps nudging above 6c in most areas and next week the uk seems to be stuck between two stools with very cold air out of reach to the east but no full blown sw'ly mild flow either. The bitter cold remains close to the east but sadly out of reach.

[TEITS]

I have a dream sometimes - only sometimes mind!

That is that we could have a section in the weather forum where only posts trying as hard as possible to give a posters views on what the models ACTUALLY appear to show NOT WHAT THEY MIGHT LIKE them to show is available. Its usually called the Technical discussion thread but why oh why can't we have a similar attempt on here.

Now I can make a fairly good case using the last 24 hours outputs from the models and their ensembles for it turning less cold-milder if you prefer that term. Equally I can I think make as good a case for showing that the ensembles or some models show the case for the cold returning.

the TRICK is to take ALL the information we have on the web, on Net Wx and elsewhere and TRY and make fair and unbiased prediction from all that data.

To be honest I am more than a touch fed up with so many TRYING to show that this or that model indicates the cold will stay/return-why cannot we have a balanced unbiased view please?

Sorry John but im going to have to speak my mind.

Im getting fed up with your constant moaning and general lack of respect for members on here. Your posts always seem to suggest that all members posts must be technical, scientific and you show a lack of respect for members who do otherwise. Guess what John this isn't a forum for professional Meteorogists as this forum consists of many members whose knowledge of Meterorology varies hugely.

Lets be honest John beyond +168 and you know very well that the pattern suggested by the models isn't always going to be right. The trick of forecasting with these models is knowing whether the pattern being suggested is plausible or not. If not then what is the likely pattern.

So lets drop this attitude please John, otherwise members will be put off from posting on this thread in fear of another John H tantrum!

[phil nw.]

GFS and UKMO show Atlantic influence on temps. by the weekend.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn9617.png

The GFS view from above shows the pressure from the vortex to our North West on the Eastern block.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rhavn961.gif

The normal view from the UKMO

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm961.gif

Even out to T144hrs.both models keep that block further East with a weak Atlantic flow keeping temps.closer to average.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

After the next 48hrs, or so where the front comes in to bring some snow before it fizzles it looks pretty average up to day6,with cloudy,damp weather

and temps. returning to more normal values by the end of the week.

Edited January 12, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[cyclonic happiness]

Sorry John but im going to have to speak my mind.

Im getting fed up with your constant moaning and general lack of respect for members on here. Your posts always seem to suggest that all members posts must be technical, scientific and you show a lack of respect for members who do otherwise. Guess what John this isn't a forum for professional Meteorogists as this forum consists of many members whose knowledge of Meterorology varies hugely.

Lets be honest John beyond +168 and you know very well that the pattern suggested by the models isn't always going to be right. The trick of forecasting with these models is knowing whether the pattern being suggested is plausible or not. If not then what is the likely pattern.

So lets drop this attitude please John, otherwise members will be put off from posting on this thread in fear of another John H tantrum!

I agree some posters on here seem to take alot of pleasure about tearing to shreds less technical posts, If we were able to put up a more scientific post, we would.

All imput is good on this thread and yes, i know that some posts can be slightly annoying, but that's all they are "annoying".

Let's all just start again and enjoy the thrill of this thread (even the bad bits ie ramps and less technical posting)

[snowingman]

Roll on spring - not even a hint of a frost on these charts for the next couple of weeks - once we brush away any lingering coldness

The grass will start to grow again, the sun will get higher in the sky and spring will be in the air!!

This is my take on the 12z from GFS.... a day cooler than average will be a thing of the past come the weekend...

Goodbye the cold of winter... welcome in those mild mild south westerlies for the foreseeable future!

[johnholmes]

Sorry John but im going to have to speak my mind.

Im getting fed up with your constant moaning and general lack of respect for members on here. Your posts always seem to suggest that all members posts must be technical, scientific and you show a lack of respect for members who do otherwise. Guess what John this isn't a forum for professional Meteorogists as this forum consists of many members whose knowledge of Meterorology varies hugely.

Lets be honest John beyond +168 and you know very well that the pattern suggested by the models isn't always going to be right. The trick of forecasting with these models is knowing whether the pattern being suggested is plausible or not. If not then what is the likely pattern.

So lets drop this attitude please John, otherwise members will be put off from posting on this thread in fear of another John H tantrum!

I'll take the hint and let you get on with it-I apologise to those with less technical knowledge as I have always tried to help and encourage everyone-countless pm's from me to forum members testity to this desire from me for everyone to share my love of meteorology.

Please remember anyone if you are not confident enough to post in any of the weather threads please pm me I'll chat about the weather until the cows come home on any level.

I'm off on 2 weeks holiday shortly so I'll keep out of here and see how I feel when I get back.

again my apologies for upsetting those with less technical understanding.

[Eugene]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-168.png?12

Cold heading back on the control

[TEITS]

I think the overall point that comes out of John's rant ain his other post is that some people could do with looking at the model outputs more objectively instead of letting personal preferences interfere with their perception of what is and isn't likely to happen.

Yes but as I just said sometimes you can't take what the models say in F.I as gospel. Personally when I look at the models I enjoy trying to figure out whats likely to happen and see what errors the models are making. Remember back in Nov 27th when I said an E,ly was on the way for Mid Dec? I was accused of ramping and misleading members and the contents of many posts were similiar to yours above!

If you need to rely on the models then fair enough. However I shall continue viewing the models and adding my own interpretation. For example many think the UKMO +144 might be disappointing but if a +168 existed then the UK would be experiencing a cold SE,ly. Hopefully the 12Z ECM will be similiar to the UKMO at +144 and show this SE,ly at +168.

[ANYWEATHER]

Whats this thread???? Is this the John Holmes mood discussion thread!!! In all seriousness I learn a lot from all of you including John and "all" your input is very interesting! Anyway, gfs is similar to the previous run and does not bring the cold in from the Continent, another near miss! To be quite honest its simply a mess synoptically over the next few days from the gfs, I would like an end to this cold weather [even though I do like the snow] as it puts a stop to my secular job, but Im still convinced that within the near future we will see that cold,cold weather to return....

[aspire27]

Yes but as I just said sometimes you can't take what the models say in F.I as gospel. Personally when I look at the models I enjoy trying to figure out whats likely to happen and see what errors the models are making. Remember back in Nov 27th when I said an E,ly was on the way for Mid Dec? I was accused of ramping and misleading members and the contents of many posts were similiar to yours above!

If you need to rely on the models then fair enough. However I shall continue viewing the models and adding my own interpretation. For example many think the UKMO +144 might be disappointing but if a +168 existed then the UK would be experiencing a cold SE,ly. Hopefully the 12Z ECM will be similiar to the UKMO at +144 and show this SE,ly at +168.

Spot on. Keep doing what your doing. Very enjoyable for me personally. You got the mid Dec cold SMACK BANG ON.

Look forward to more of your model output analysis. Keep it up TEITS!!

[ANYWEATHER]

I'll take the hint and let you get on with it-I apologise to those with less technical knowledge as I have always tried to help and encourage everyone-countless pm's from me to forum members testity to this desire from me for everyone to share my love of meteorology.

Please remember anyone if you are not confident enough to post in any of the weather threads please pm me I'll chat about the weather until the cows come home on any level.

I'm off on 2 weeks holiday shortly so I'll keep out of here and see how I feel when I get back.

again my apologies for upsetting those with less technical understanding.

Have a GOOD HOLIDAY John , Your input like a lot of those on here is invaluble!

[cyclonic happiness]

I'll take the hint and let you get on with it-I apologise to those with less technical knowledge as I have always tried to help and encourage everyone-countless pm's from me to forum members testity to this desire from me for everyone to share my love of meteorology.

Please remember anyone if you are not confident enough to post in any of the weather threads please pm me I'll chat about the weather until the cows come home on any level.

I'm off on 2 weeks holiday shortly so I'll keep out of here and see how I feel when I get back.

again my apologies for upsetting those with less technical understanding.

You are ok John, I think it's more to do with the (maybe misguided) thought that we are definately gonna be stuck in southwesterly winds for the rest of winter, and that makes alot of people post rubbish lol!

I have great confidence that we will be seeing a reload shortly in the models, they are far to eager to reset to their, seemingly, sothwesterly bias.

All the blocks are in place but what's puzzling me is , why are the models so determined to reset to mild in FI?

Is it because there have been so few winters like this that they are lacking practice?