Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 19:

[NorthernRab]

Hello everyone, been a while! Few pictures

The road to the Cairngorms

The Cairngorms themselves

[Snowplough33]

Hello everyone, been a while! Few pictures

The road to the Cairngorms

The Cairngorms themselves

Abosutley fantastic pictures!!!!!!!!!

I take these were a week or so ago??

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Air temp still 2 C here, but seems a ground frost developing as the snow is firming up and sparkling again.

Still waiting for the end of the cold spell that everyone is talking about. We still have six inches of firm snow covering the area. I can't see this dissapearing for another week at least at this rate. Might just get a wee top up mid week too.

Model thread is madness; this morning it was Bartlett highs, now its massive cold on the horizon. People read too much into the FI and thus go from high to low all the time.

As far as I can see, for northern climes, no serious mild, just about average for the next week, flirting with colder at times (e.g. Wed/Thurs). After that, some potential there, but better not to read to much into it.

Ski resorts certainly have nothing to worry about; they should see a fair bit more snow over the next week to keep things fresh. Just been out to the shed to fetch my skis - hoping to get up to Cairngorm in the next week or two.

[Blizzardo]

What are peoples thoughts on the possible short event mid week?

The model thread suggesting higher ground only in southern englandshire, but maybe more substantial up here?

From what I can see it's hard to call given the uppers are maybe not quite low enough, certainly for lower levels/near the coast.

Some quite heavy rain moving in from the Atlantic. GFS has this moving in a little bit quicker than the ECM so ECM shows more opportunity for slightly colder uppers to make progress from the East. The fax chart over the last 2 days has also seen the 528 dam line edge a little further West with each update which is good.

At the moment GFS showing sleet for low ground of Scotland but GFS can sometimes be a bit progressive in bringing in the Atlantic so the cold upper air may make it a little further West than its showing.

Uppers looking about -3 or -4 for most during the window and max temps of about 3c when the heaviest precipitation around so may be enough. At the moment I'd say rain/sleet turning to wet snow for my location but still time for further upgrades.

[blitzen]

Hello everyone, been a while! Few pictures

The road to the Cairngorms

The Cairngorms themselves

Oh! those are so good. The first one is my favourite. Why can't Fife get snow like that? Things appear to be looking up on the model thread tho' so you never know.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

For those that have not been in the model thread, this link was posted:

Interesting lecture. Apparently it's going to get increasingly colder in the longer term - i.e. in future winters.

If you are a global warming freak and dismiss out of hand any data which might suggest that our climate is not entirely controlled by CO2 and CO2 alone (and the intensity of the big hot shiny ball in the sky has definitely, definitely, definitely nothing to do with it, even though its the only reason we're not an ice ball), don't watch.

I for one, as a research scientist (who has been involved in GW related research) am dismayed by the warming bandwagon. At the moment, if you want research money from the government, then anything which proves GW or helps fix it is quids in. If you happen to find any evidence that it might not be simple as that and want to follow it up, forget your grant application (this is true, believe me, I have written numerous EPSRC and NERC grant applications; NERC is basically the GWRC now).

Note I am not AGW - I do not consider myself expert enough to make a judgement. I just feel the research is all largely aimed at finding the answer that is 'supposed' to be right, i.e. warming. Scientists, however good they are, sometimes can't help but search for the answer they want, even if it means playing with data (i.e. excluding what does not fit as 'must be something wrong') rather than accepting things might be otherwise.

Here's to future snowy winters

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi all. It's oddly quite nice to be able to see the grass without any ice/snow on it, though that has more to do with the poor quality of the remaining snow cover in the last few days.

Anyway, first of all I'd just like to post this incredible chart from far FI on the GFS, for no reason other than it is visually stunning: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Now, back to the real world, and I think I can see the problem for eastern and northern Scotland on Wednesday with regards to snowfall:

Looks promising for northeastern areas. However, with the wind from a less cold maritime direction ( http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/12/75/ukwind.png), our old foe coastal warming looks like spoiling the party, with Shuggee's -8 rule looking like good guidance: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/12/81/ukmintemp.png

Note how those further south and west, with less cold uppers but no coastal warming, have temperatures around or even below freezing. The other factor of course may just be the intensity of precipitation, with England taking the heaviest precipitation, which means it is more likely to turn to snow than light precipitation: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm723.gif Central and western Scotland look a bit less prone to this, so they will most likely see some snowfall, and all it would take for widespread snow would be uppers a degree or two lower than currently progged and heavier precipitation across much of Scotland. Perhaps a more southerly wind component would also help in eastern areas. I'm not ruling out a snow event for much of Scotland, just warning of the pitfalls and reasons why the warnings are currently only for southwestern Scotland.

Anyway, after a brief milder interlude on Thursday night/Friday as a large band of very heavy rain (maybe high ground snow but predominantly rain with uppers like these ) moves through (http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/12/120/ukmaxtemp.png) Saturday looks like a quieter, cooler day, courtesy of this ridge: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/12/147/h500slp.png.

After this, the low to our northwest looks set to move east in some form or other:

ECM 12Z favours it moving southeast, allowing height rises to our north and a cold easterly to set in: http://212.100.247.145/ecmimages/20100117/12/ecm500.216.png http://212.100.247.145/ecmimages/20100117/12/ecm500.240.png

ECM 00Z had a similar solution, albeit with the low further north and less height rises to our north, though this would have significant snowfall potential (note the parallel's with the 23rd December low which brought 5 inches across eastern areas south and west of Aberdeen). http://212.100.247.145/ecmimages/20100117/12/ecm500.240.png http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010011700/NSea_2010011700_thgt850_240.png Uppers are maybe a little too high but you can see the colder air heading southwest.

The GFS 12Z flirts with height rises to the south, resulting in the low tracking, initially, further north: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/12/192/h500slp.png

It gets there in the end though: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/12/252/h500slp.png

The 6Z GFS takes a similar route to the ECM 12Z, with the low tracking to our south, allowing height rises to the north and a northerly to develop: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/06/204/h500slp.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/06/252/h500slp.png

So what do the ensembles make of it all? http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100117/12/t850Fife.png Note the steep drop on the 27th January and the mean never really getting back above -5 for the rest of the period.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100117/12/t850Western~Isles.png

The story is similar in the Western Isles oddly enough, which suggests that the wind direction looks finely balanced between north and east during this time.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100117/12/prmslReyjavic.png Note the rise in air pressure in Iceland coinciding with this cooling off, but also the great scatter.

Just realised that I've taken so long to write this, the 18Z is now coming out!

Will update if the situation for Wednesday has changed at all.

LS

For those that have not been in the model thread, this link was posted:

Interesting lecture. Apparently it's going to get increasingly colder in the longer term - i.e. in future winters.

If you are a global warming freak and dismiss out of hand any data which might suggest that our climate is not entirely controlled by CO2 and CO2 alone (and the intensity of the big hot shiny ball in the sky has definitely, definitely, definitely nothing to do with it, even though its the only reason we're not an ice ball), don't watch.

I for one, as a research scientist (who has been involved in GW related research) am dismayed by the warming bandwagon. At the moment, if you want research money from the government, then anything which proves GW or helps fix it is quids in. If you happen to find any evidence that it might not be simple as that and want to follow it up, forget your grant application (this is true, believe me, I have written numerous EPSRC and NERC grant applications; NERC is basically the GWRC now).

Note I am not AGW - I do not consider myself expert enough to make a judgement. I just feel the research is all largely aimed at finding the answer that is 'supposed' to be right, i.e. warming. Scientists, however good they are, sometimes can't help but search for the answer they want, even if it means playing with data (i.e. excluding what does not fit as 'must be something wrong') rather than accepting things might be otherwise.

Here's to future snowy winters

Great post. Perhaps belongs on the climate change thread as well!

LS

[Northernlights]

For those that have not been in the model thread, this link was posted:

Interesting lecture. Apparently it's going to get increasingly colder in the longer term - i.e. in future winters.

If you are a global warming freak and dismiss out of hand any data which might suggest that our climate is not entirely controlled by CO2 and CO2 alone (and the intensity of the big hot shiny ball in the sky has definitely, definitely, definitely nothing to do with it, even though its the only reason we're not an ice ball), don't watch.

I for one, as a research scientist (who has been involved in GW related research) am dismayed by the warming bandwagon. At the moment, if you want research money from the government, then anything which proves GW or helps fix it is quids in. If you happen to find any evidence that it might not be simple as that and want to follow it up, forget your grant application (this is true, believe me, I have written numerous EPSRC and NERC grant applications; NERC is basically the GWRC now).

Note I am not AGW - I do not consider myself expert enough to make a judgement. I just feel the research is all largely aimed at finding the answer that is 'supposed' to be right, i.e. warming. Scientists, however good they are, sometimes can't help but search for the answer they want, even if it means playing with data (i.e. excluding what does not fit as 'must be something wrong') rather than accepting things might be otherwise.

Here's to future snowy winters

As just an ordinary farmer I am pretty convinced this could be true as here on the farm we have been through several much cooler years as shown by changing plant growth patterns which tie in with almost a complete lack of northernlights(aurora borealis)in the last 3 years because of the lack of sunspot activity and lower solar radiation. Grass has stopped growing through the winter in the last 2 years after over 20 years of green grass fields in winter, Sheep have had to be fed here since Xmas because of the depth of frozen snow, almost record breaking. Seeing fresh snow on the hills above 3000 feet in the last 3 Junes also backs this up. Also having a daughter who did astrophysics and is now doing her phd means I have an expert to discuss this with and she says that although we probably added to the warming phase it will not stop the cooling phase as there have always been natural climatic cycles both warming and cooling. The rest of this winter and spring may well be colder than we have been used to especially with a rapidly cooling North Sea and the normal increase in frequency in spring of north and east winds. They will pass over a cooler sea as they come towards us and be less modified.

[blitzen]

Absolutely tipping it down here with rain and by the looks of the radar we are in for a night of it!

[Cheggers]

Absolutely tipping it down here with rain and by the looks of the radar we are in for a night of it!

Ditto, really miserable, don't see my glacial block in back garden lasting the night. Went from 4.8 to 6.1 since back from work at 4pm :)

Wind picking up quite a bit as well.

Edited January 17, 2010 by Cheggers

[blitzen]

Ditto, really miserable, don't see my glacial block in back garden lasting the night. Went from 4.8 to 6.1 since back from work at 4pm :)

Wind picking up quite a bit as well.

Like the way the models are suggesting another cold spell tho' Looks like there is another trend to cold in 8-10 days time. Let's hope they stay on track!

[Mondy]

Scottish Skier. Absolutely agree with you. Put it in the climate change threads and see how you get on though

[Cheggers]

Like the way the models are suggesting another cold spell tho' Looks like there is another trend to cold in 8-10 days time. Let's hope they stay on track!

I hope so to. Would even welcome a cool calm period, hate the wind and rain.

Any news on the 18z I have read LSS update which does indeed look promising, and would tie in with GP's update, looking good from IMBY for Wednesday albeit it short lived. (very good update LSS thnaks.)

[LomondSnowstorm]

I hope so to. Would even welcome a cool calm period, hate the wind and rain.

Any news on the 18z I have read LSS update which does indeed look promising, and would tie in with GP's update, looking good from IMBY for Wednesday albeit it short lived. (very good update LSS thnaks.)

It's a slight downgrade sadly, but this is likely to go back and forward right up until 0 hour. Best bet as always will be the NMM, though the NAE (UKMO high-res model) gives good indications from 48-36 hours http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912271800&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO

Just use this link and click on the base to select the most recent one in about 24 hours to see precip type, and also temperatures for a 6 hour period. It's slightly better than the GFS but not as good or detailed as the NMM. FI still looks good though, with dry cold weather for a time before a northerly/northeasterly/northwesterly comes in: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/18/204/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/18/264/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/18/312/h500slp.png

You don't see thicknesses like this everyday! http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/18/300/hgt500-1000.png

[blitzen]

It's a slight downgrade sadly, but this is likely to go back and forward right up until 0 hour. Best bet as always will be the NMM, though the NAE (UKMO high-res model) gives good indications from 48-36 hours http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912271800&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO

Just use this link and click on the base to select the most recent one in about 24 hours to see precip type, and also temperatures for a 6 hour period. It's slightly better than the GFS but not as good or detailed as the NMM. FI still looks good though, with dry cold weather for a time before a northerly/northeasterly/northwesterly comes in: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/18/204/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/18/264/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/18/312/h500slp.png

You don't see thicknesses like this everyday! http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100117/18/300/hgt500-1000.png

Yes LS, I had a look at the 18zs as well and as far as Wednesday, Thursday is concerned, it certainly doesn't tie in with this evening's Country Tracks forecast. There definitely does appear to be some consistency now in FI with regards to another cold spell tho'!

[Guest]

Yes LS, I had a look at the 18zs as well and as far as Wednesday, Thursday is concerned, it certainly doesn't tie in with this evening's Country Tracks forecast. There definitely does appear to be some consistency now in FI with regards to another cold spell tho'!

It will be interesting to see if the trend is still there on today's 12z GFS, as yesterday's 12z was certainly a colder outlook in the ensembles towards the end of the month

[Guest]

I meant to add this in to the post above:

Look at the dip in the mean later in the month

[snowy owl]

Some very interesting things happening again! - Been away from Thread for a weekend and look what happens!lol!

Still too early to tell for definite what will happen on Wednesday i think, still will be snow for some though.

As for the outlook, very interesting trend still for the 27th onwards and looks very much like this is developing but as ever still a lot of lows, ridges, movements to get through first.

thanks again LS for your great summary very helpful.

[sunny starry skies]

For those that have not been in the model thread, this link was posted:

Interesting lecture. Apparently it's going to get increasingly colder in the longer term - i.e. in future winters.

If you are a global warming freak and dismiss out of hand any data which might suggest that our climate is not entirely controlled by CO2 and CO2 alone (and the intensity of the big hot shiny ball in the sky has definitely, definitely, definitely nothing to do with it, even though its the only reason we're not an ice ball), don't watch.

I for one, as a research scientist (who has been involved in GW related research) am dismayed by the warming bandwagon. At the moment, if you want research money from the government, then anything which proves GW or helps fix it is quids in. If you happen to find any evidence that it might not be simple as that and want to follow it up, forget your grant application (this is true, believe me, I have written numerous EPSRC and NERC grant applications; NERC is basically the GWRC now).

Note I am not AGW - I do not consider myself expert enough to make a judgement. I just feel the research is all largely aimed at finding the answer that is 'supposed' to be right, i.e. warming. Scientists, however good they are, sometimes can't help but search for the answer they want, even if it means playing with data (i.e. excluding what does not fit as 'must be something wrong') rather than accepting things might be otherwise.

Here's to future snowy winters

Stick in in the Climate thread and I'll reply to any further issues. Safe to say I disagree with most of your points though (will very briefly reply for folk on here)! Yes the big hot shiny ball provides virtually all our heat, but it doesn't vary much. Solar changes do not dominate present climate, but may have been the greatest driver when other drivers were smaller (e.g. Maunder). GHGs have increased by ~30% - much bigger change than solar, nice physically-demonstrated mechanism for enhancing warming too. The consensus view is that climate is not all 100% CO2 [GHGs] - ENSO, volcanic and solar (!) are accounted for. Yes NERC are climate-dominated at the mo... because it's about the the biggest issue out there, sorry to hear about your failed applications. But things that 'don't fit' often produce the best science results, so if you have good verifiable data it will be accepted, there's plenty of outlets for good original papers! My suspicion from your 'global warming freak' para is that you've not considered all the issues in sufficient detail, maybe I'm wrong (and I don't mean anything personal) but I'm only reading into what you've written.

Back on topic, I'm quite intrigued by the possibilities for snow in Edinburgh on Thurs. No Meto warnings but Meto charts and GFS indicating some reasonable wintry precipitation. That said we've only just got rid of the last snow, and it's nice not to worry about ice anymore!

sss

[Norrance]

Feels almost Springlike here this afternoon in the sunshine. I suppose though, that 5C is not that warm, however you can feel some heat in the sun.

I see that STV have a program tonight at 8PM showing the wintry spell in Scotland filmed from the air in December.

[sorry if has already been mentioned.]

[Guest]

Feels almost Springlike here this afternoon in the sunshine. I suppose though, that 5C is not that warm, however you can feel some heat in the sun.

I see that STV have a program tonight at 8PM showing the wintry spell in Scotland filmed from the air in December.

[sorry if has already been mentioned.]

It pains me to say this but it does feel very nice and springlike in the bright sun and gorgeous blue sky; even more so since it is 9C here.

I hadn't heard anything about the programme on STV tonight, that will be interesting and sad in equal measures. Like looking at holiday photos once the tan has faded and you've drunk/smoked all the duty free

Edited January 18, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Norrance]

It pains me to say this but it does feel very nice and springlike in the bright sun and gorgeous blue sky; even more so since it is 9C here.

I hadn't heard anything about the programme on STV tonight, that will be interesting and sad in equal measures. Like looking at holiday photos once the tan has faded and you've drunk/smoked all the duty free :lol:

I know what you mean. I have just been out in the back garden where the last ice patches are slowly fading away. Was up in Perth this morning where the piles of snow are now filthy and melting away.

[Snowplough33]

And only a couple of threads to read from through the day

[LomondSnowstorm]

It has been a really stunning day here, with temperatures peaking at 7.8C with clear blue skies, making it feel almost springlike! I have to say that the models look even less settled on FI than yesterday and although most end up with some kind of cold resolution, some do so from bringing the low southeast, though others have the high to our east ridging west and bringing an easterly. The UKMO for example shows the block to our east to be much stronger than expected, so the atlantic is forced southwest, leaving us in a cold continental flow : http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?18-17

As for ssk's point about snow on Thursday, there has definitely been an upgrade. The main band doesn't make it - what does make it here though is convective showers off the north sea. Now, the issue of coastal warming is still valid, but let's look at the uppers - http://www.meteociel...W60-7.GIF?18-17 This passes Shuggee's rule alright! So let's look at the all important dew points at 3pm on Wednesday (remember it can be as much as a degree above freezing in convective precipitation for snow to fall due to evaporative cooling etc). Already they are around freezing almost everywhere. But is there any PPN around? Given the GFS tendency to understimate north sea convection I think we can be fairly confident of some showers down the east coast - http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/12/54/ukprec.png The GFS also picks up on a more organised band heading northwest in the early hours of Thursday - http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/12/66/ukprec.png Again, check the uppers - they're bit marginal at the moment, but given how much this situation has upgraded in the last 24 hours, it wouldn't take much to nudge those -10 uppers a bit further west towards us.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/12/75/ukprec.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/12/75/0degisotherm.png When the main band hits on Thursday afternoon, the 0C isotherm is widely below 400 metres, which means roughly a 50% chance of snowfall, according to the JH how to forecast snow guide, so marginal, but if there was another slight upgrade in terms of uppers before Thursday, a widespread frontal snow event is not out of the question by any means.

LS

[blitzen]

A good and informative read there LS - thanks. Nice to see that things are tilting our way for a chance of some snow on Thursday. Models are certainly at 6s and 7s at the moment. But that's fine, as to me it only highlights that there is a good/unusual reason for the uncertainty! Was out for a good long walk today round Lochore Meadows with the dog and the loch is still frozen solid. The poor swans are having a very slippy time.