Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 19:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Very much so. Glacier Point has just done a very nice summary on the expert thread which I'd advice you to read, which basically seems to back up the idea of the second FI chart I posted more than the first.

edit: Having re-read the post I'm a bit unsure if the above is the case at all! But he thinks we should be looking northeast for the cold.

LS

Whoa. Just went into the lions den and it's hard going. If I didn't have lots to read all the time for my own job I might have time to spend understanding all the weather jargon.

Agreed GP seems to know what he's talking about. As a working scientist myself, I can usually tell blagging from reality. I also understand how complex such systems are; I'll take oil and gas phase phase behaviour over the weather any day.

While the possibility of more significant mild weather in feb(?) is obviously not what cold lovers want, we can't complain about this winter so far. We've had some great snow events over the past few weeks and we should be well pleased with that. Anything else is a bonus.

Reverting back to my status as a researcher, fluid dynamics - which is what the weather is in the end - is as complex as things can possibly get. People read too much into models; the best scientists struggle to predict equilibrium behaviour in a simple 2 component system never mind a massive global swirling/mixing mass of air bodies with all sorts of factors influencing.

I look at the radar and my garden T probe for today. The NW forum/meto p charts for the next few days, and take all FI preds for longer with a pinch of salt whilst hoping some might come off.

Would love to see a bit more snow and feel there is no reason why not for now...

Cheers, and long live the Scottish regional thread.

[lorenzo]

I second Scottish Skier shout about LS doing the summarys - great stuff.

Good to see some in depth analysis on the Scottish thread - much of the review on the MOD thread is based on the southern half of the UK due to geography of posters.

Think there may be some envious eyes North within a few days though from the cold club..

[LomondSnowstorm]

I second Scottish Skier shout about LS doing the summarys - great stuff.

Good to see some in depth analysis on the Scottish thread - much of the review on the MOD thread is based on the southern half of the UK due to geography of posters.

Think there may be some envious eyes North within a few days though from the cold club..

Very much so. Those further south and east must hate cool northwesterlies, as they end up with fairly drab weather while those further north and west experience at least colder temperatures and more chance of snow combined with more interesting weather as cold fronts push through. I bet cookie will be licking his lips at these synoptics too!

LS

[Snowplough33]

Obvious caution, but the charts are looking not too bad for some snow events mid week in Scotland. ECM brings good cold air briefly Wed, Thurs and again ends cold in FI. GSF has the cold brush across the NE at the same time. Intresting to keep and eye on. Beeb are also talking of possible snow event around the same time, so fun week watching forecasts ect. Be intresting to read LS's take on this mornings charts...........standing by for this!!!

[blitzen]

Morning folks. A nice clear morning it is too with temps and dew points both sitting at 2.2oC and WSW breeze.

Good summary LS, thanks for taking the time to do these as I always find them to be clear and concise. I am not sure where the next onslaught will be coming from really. There appears to be evidence in FI of it being from the NW a la GFS or from the NE a la GP! :unsure: Whatever. I am sure we are in the middle of a re-grouping and things are by no means over yet. Joe B's latest blog holds out further hope for me with his comments about parts of the US also being in a thaw type scenario and then brutal cold affecting the eastern sea-board in 8-10 days time! Always hopeful of some kind of back-lash for here!

[Gilly]

2C here and dewpoint 0C.

Lovely calm day with blue skies......winds gone. Perfect for a walk.:unsure:

Edited January 17, 2010 by Gilly

[Highland Snow]

Temp 0.2 DP-0.2 atm.

Beautiful at Dalnaspidal thru Dalwhinnie yesterday (or what I could see - snowing heavily at 08.30).

Thaw well underway elsewhere even at +800ft altitude eg. Kingussie/Newtonmore.

Thanks LS for that hard work with the summary, much more informed now.

[lorenzo]

Crystal cleal blue skies here. ECM continues to throw us a progression on the Scandinavia cold reaching us Weds 000, right on the edge of Fantasy Island on the chart timeframes though. This evenings run may just prove conclusive, especially if GFS gets on board with the cold spilling over the North Sea.

Interesting thread also relating to SST in the north sea and their drop of 2.5 C in the last few days, this should also assist that 528 line moving west.

Way out in FI the charts show another monster low from the atlantic from the NW this time fully loaded with cold air, due to my inexperience not seen this set up synoptic so no idea how thats going to play out, am sure I read last night though that these types of lows bring very decent snowfall if all else is set up.

Ensembles show a dip in temps for Weds, then another decent tilt toward the -5 to -10 mark from 26th and 27th onwards. Could it be,we will be cold going into February??

Over on the Model thread the issue remains whether there is a Bartlett high or not, when there clearly is no sign whatsoever of such a thing..

Edited January 17, 2010 by lorenzo

[Snowplough33]

Crystal cleal blue skies here. ECM continues to throw us a progression on the Scandinavia cold reaching us Weds 000, right on the edge of Fantasy Island on the chart timeframes though. This evenings run may just proove conclusive, especially if GFS gets on board with the cold spilling over the North Sea.

Interesting thread also relating to SST in the north sea and their drop of 2.5 C in the last few days, this should also assist that 528 line moving west.

Way out in FI the charts show another monster low from the atlantic from the NW this time fully loaded with cold air, due to my inexperience not seen this set up synoptic so no idea how thats going to play out, am sure I read last night though that these types of lows bring very decent snowfall if all else is set up.

Ensembles show a dip in temps for Weds, then another decent tilt toward the -5 to -10 mark from 26th and 27th onwards. Could it be,we will be cold going into February??

Over on the Model thread the issue remains whether there is a Bartlett high or not, when there clearly is no sign whatsoever of such a thing..

Yeh I saw that and I think most of the Bartlett high talk is purely by bored people looking for a good bite........and whoooooooo are they getting it!!

Edited January 17, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Mondy]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[Stuart]

No warning for the Scottish Borders

[blitzen]

Makes you wonder where they are getting the info from Mondy? Have only looked at the GFS today but that appears to suggest that the north east/ east would be affected.

[GraemeB]

Sorry for the blonde question - but I was in Oz pre Xmas and missed all the fun...when was the event back in December actually nailed on ?

I don't remember seeing any warnings as I was going into Barby-mode...

[Highland Snow]

Now that's what I call snow - Cairngorm on Thursday 14th.

[shuggee]

There weren't any warning whatsoever for Edinburgh's heaviest snowfall for 25 years Graeme in the small hours of Weds 23 Dec. Was all a bit of a Meto cock up.

[GraemeB]

There weren't any warning whatsoever for Edinburgh's heaviest snowfall for 25 years Graeme in the small hours of Weds 23 Dec. Was all a bit of a Meto cock up.

Yeah, thanks shuggs, I kinda thought I had missed the warnings...even up here there were about 5-6inches over that period...I just wondered how it all came about and how it was "missed" ?

Did the guys over on the Boffin Thread nail it though ?

[Sunny Leith]

What I found bizarre about that Shuggs was not so much that they missed it from more or less 12 hours out (around the time that several on here were making a call on it actually happening) ... but that by the time it was actually in progress and moving SSW to these parts and the radar was screaming it ... they still didn't react.

Suggested to me they just weren't paying attention to detail in these parts and/or that no staff member monitors the radar and observations in the wee hours.

I'll be charitable and put it down to too much pre-Xmas mulled wine at the Metoffice...

There weren't any warning whatsoever for Edinburgh's heaviest snowfall for 25 years Graeme in the small hours of Weds 23 Dec. Was all a bit of a Meto cock up.

[Methuselah]

The newly-exposed grass looks lovely and green...The seagulls haven't crapped all over it - yet!

[Guest]

Suggested to me they just weren't paying attention to detail in these parts and/or that no staff member monitors the radar and observations in the wee hours.

Hi By-Tor, how's the green green grass looking through there??

I would echo what you say about the Met-O regarding their inability to react to events as they unfold. There were 3 weather warnings for heavy snow issued here in the days before Xmas, and it was clear very quickly with each warning that the snow just wasn't going to arrive. As a one off this was ok, after all it was "only" an 80% or greater risk which obviously leaves a 20% chance of the warning being wrong. But to get a 80% chance wrong three times in a row is just poor now-casting. I could see the warnings were wrong; and what do I know??

The Met-O definitely need to be more reactive with their warnings and they need to add/remove them far more speedily and accurately. Have they never heard of "The boy who cried wolf"?? Why would anyone listen to their warnings about global warming if the Met-O can't warn about something happening (or not happening) in the here and now??

Edited January 17, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Northernlights]

Still a bit of snow or shall we say ice left after last nights ground frost. Pictures are from 2nd January and today 17th of January.Currently 4c. very little wind and partly cloudy.

[Northernlights]

Still a bit of snow or shall we say ice left after last nights ground frost. Pictures are from 2nd January and today 17th of January.Currently 4c. very little wind and partly cloudy.

Should have added that we have had snow cover since the 17th of December and perhaps it is still hanging about for more .

[Guest]

Should have added that we have had snow cover since the 17th of December and perhaps it is still hanging about for more .

That snow will still be with you on the 17th April!! Cracking pics

All we've got left here are the dirty stumps of long dead snowmen and sheets of ice in any sheltered corners

[Sunny Leith]

Actually a pleasant change Catch ... the bowling green I overlook was still completely icebound until Friday ... a completely sheltered icecube with tenaments on all 4 sides... These past 30 days of variable but visible and consecutive snow and ice cover in this part of Leith has been unique in my experience (since moving here in 1993). The last few days of it were just patchy and dirty. So well rid of it here now TBH. Also noticed when I looked up at the roof from the street that the snow has managed to damage the flat roof, its visibly pushed up the roof covering somehow ... so its going to cost us...

Not reading too much into the models in terms of a major trend ... but I dont think any of us would be surprised to see snow again before the month is out.

Hi By-Tor, how's the green green grass looking through there??

I would echo what you say about the Met-O regarding their inability to react to events as they unfold. There were 3 weather warnings for heavy snow issued here in the days before Xmas, and it was clear very quickly with each warning that the snow just wasn't going to arrive. As a one off this was ok, after all it was "only" an 80% or greater risk which obviously leaves a 20% chance of the warning being wrong. But to get a 80% chance wrong three times in a row is just poor now-casting. I could see the warnings were wrong; and what do I know??

The Met-O definitely need to be more reactive with their warnings and they need to add/remove them far more speedily and accurately. Have they never heard of "The boy who cried wolf"?? Why would anyone listen to their warnings about global warming if the Met-O can't warn about something happening (or not happening) in the here and now??

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

What are peoples thoughts on the possible short event mid week?

The model thread suggesting higher ground only in southern englandshire, but maybe more substantial up here?

From what I can see it's hard to call given the uppers are maybe not quite low enough, certainly for lower levels/near the coast.

[Snowplough33]

What are peoples thoughts on the possible short event mid week?

The model thread suggesting higher ground only in southern englandshire, but maybe more substantial up here?

From what I can see it's hard to call given the uppers are maybe not quite low enough, certainly for lower levels/near the coast.

Yeh there certainley seems to be some roumer of it at the moment, but I'm with you that the set up just isn't correct for it. I think Beeb and UKMO, as there feeder, are going for this on the tought the cold to our east shifts slightly further over. Be interesting to see Countryfile week forecast, but much past Tuesday evening is really FI for them. Sure hope so, would be a supper mid week bonus!!