Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 19:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Some amazing snow vids from cairngorm mountain here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/CairnGormMountain#p/a/f/1/Yt68GUdLMJ4

There's 4 m drifts with some of the ski lift pylons 2/3 buried.

Nuts.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Oh dear ECM is horrid

Not to worry, by tomorrow ECm will have done a U-turn and showing baltic weather and GSF will be showing warm.........

Same thing happened yesterday I suppose, which is why we can't call it at all! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif Reminiscent of the Braer storm http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00119930111.gif

Nothing like this chart at all: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Blocking from the northwest appears to be the signal either way though - merely a question of how we get there. The ECM gives us a monster low which would eventually give colder air from the northwest in behind with lots of polar maritime air bringing potential for a lot of snow before the high moves in across Greenland. However there would be a lot of wet and windy stuff to get through beforehand, which might make an interesting change really! The GFS solution is beginning to look a tad out of place, but then again I wouldn't be surprised with anything in the next run! Mild is still an option, a fairly plausible option at that, while a full blown easterly is losing support by the day, but now the option of cooler northwesterlies followed by northerlies and northeasterlies due to the displacement of the PV to Scandi is entirely plausible also. Nothing in the medium to long term is settled, especially not with a -AO, a neutral NAO, a stratospheric warming powering up and a jet which looks stronger than ever, a massive siberian high, indications of blocking from the northwest and the trough to our west tilted from northeast to southwest (not a good tilt for cold) !

Nothing more I can say really. Basically, no one really knows!

[Snowplough33]

Some amazing snow vids from cairngorm mountain here:

http://www.youtube.c...f/1/Yt68GUdLMJ4

There's 4 m drifts with some of the ski lift pylons 2/3 buried.

Nuts.

Its really good. Thats how I remember up there when I was wee ( now 33). Same at Glenshee, driving up with huge walls of snow where the blower had been up.

Hopefully we get like that in Monifieth next week

Same thing happened yesterday I suppose, which is why we can't call it at all! http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif Reminiscent of the Braer storm http://www.wetterzen...00119930111.gif

Nothing like this chart at all: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2401.png

Blocking from the northwest appears to be the signal either way though - merely a question of how we get there. The ECM gives us a monster low which would eventually give colder air from the northwest in behind with lots of polar maritime air bringing potential for a lot of snow before the high moves in across Greenland. However there would be a lot of wet and windy stuff to get through beforehand, which might make an interesting change really! The GFS solution is beginning to look a tad out of place, but then again I wouldn't be surprised with anything in the next run! Mild is still an option, a fairly plausible option at that, while a full blown easterly is losing support by the day, but now the option of cooler northwesterlies followed by northerlies and northeasterlies due to the displacement of the PV to Scandi is entirely plausible also. Nothing in the medium to long term is settled, especially not with a -AO, a neutral NAO, a stratospheric warming powering up and a jet which looks stronger than ever, a massive siberian high, indications of blocking from the northwest and the trough to our west tilted from northeast to southwest (not a good tilt for cold) !

Nothing more I can say really. Basically, no one really knows!

..........which is perfect, all to play for!!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Its really good. Thats how I remember up there when I was wee ( now 33). Same at Glenshee, driving up with huge walls of snow where the blower had been up.

Hopefully we get like that in Monifieth next week

..........which is perfect, all to play for!!

I grew up in Carrbridge (33 myself) and remember the walls of snow too. Was quite scary (but exciting of course) driving up there with the snow just feet away towering over the car. I remember at lunch time between lessons digging snow holes in the drifts near the day lodge. Brilliant.

Hoping to get up sometime in the next few weeks. Do you think there'll still be snow?

Barring a super sustained warm up, there'll be skiing until june on that lot. Not sure what they'll do with the M1 poma. From what I can see, the cable wheels on some of the pylons are now just head height!

[Polar Gael]

Okey Dokey!

Have spoken with the powers that be................and

Tomorrow there will be a New Sub Forum above this one near where the Snow Reports Live called "Regional Threads" and all the Regionals are going to be moved there and stay put for the winter, so this thread will be kept open until tomorrow when it will be moved into it's new home!

Regards

Paul S

Wow, so it's a regeneration (sort of). Ta, mods el al! Wonder if it'll be a ginger thread...

Excellent stuff coz the last few weeks have been the best chat ever on Nw (Scotland). Best get ready for the cold reload. Right then who's hidden the block? And the northerlies...and the easterlies...and where'd all the white stuff go? The model thread? Nae danger!

Any chance of a wee ground frost?

Edited January 15, 2010 by Polar Gael

[Norrance]

I grew up in Carrbridge (33 myself) and remember the walls of snow too. Was quite scary (but exciting of course) driving up there with the snow just feet away towering over the car. I remember at lunch time between lessons digging snow holes in the drifts near the day lodge. Brilliant.

Hoping to get up sometime in the next few weeks. Do you think there'll still be snow?

Barring a super sustained warm up, there'll be skiing until june on that lot. Not sure what they'll do with the M1 poma. From what I can see, the cable wheels on some of the pylons are now just head height!

They will dig it out if necessary. It has happened before when the snow has been so deep that the cable was too near peoples heads.

I remember one year in the seventies when the Upper Ciste and Ptarmigan tows had to be dug out in April. Possibly 1975 as I was working in Aviemore then.

[Snowplough33]

I grew up in Carrbridge (33 myself) and remember the walls of snow too. Was quite scary (but exciting of course) driving up there with the snow just feet away towering over the car. I remember at lunch time between lessons digging snow holes in the drifts near the day lodge. Brilliant.

Hoping to get up sometime in the next few weeks. Do you think there'll still be snow?

Barring a super sustained warm up, there'll be skiing until june on that lot. Not sure what they'll do with the M1 poma. From what I can see, the cable wheels on some of the pylons are now just head height!

Sorry to bore all other theaders.......We used to stay in the lodges at the back of Carrbridge. Loch and Hooly (not sure of the spelling). Lovely place with small loch and swimming pool ect. But then the evil of time share took over and that was the beginning of the end of our Easter hols in Carrbridge skiing. Landmark is really cool these days!

[Mondy]

Kiss goodbye the to last of your snow (in most areas) - sick of the damn stuff anyway

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Sorry to bore all other theaders.......We used to stay in the lodges at the back of Carrbridge. Loch and Hooly (not sure of the spelling). Lovely place with small loch and swimming pool ect. But then the evil of time share took over and that was the beginning of the end of our Easter hols in Carrbridge skiing. Landmark is really cool these days!

I know it well - lochanhully that is.

Was great as an early teenager. We used to go up to play pool, swim and see if we could pull; new girls arrived every week seeking a wee holiday romance. Cool, because after a week you could choose a new challenge when the next lot of holiday makers arrived.

I would never think of such a thing now of course; being a respectable married man.

Anyways, to keep on topic; I like the posts from LSS. Maybe it's because I'm an addict, but I feel the cold ain't too far away and could well be coming back next week. To be honest, it's good to have a little break - makes watching for the next event all the more exciting.

[Sunny Leith]

Won't be sorry Mondy, its crappy stuff now. The stuff we had left here today in town was the mutated remnants of the ice-crusted-snow and diamond-hard ice on pavements and parks. Not snow at all in the real sense of the word. Unbelievable how long that stuff has hung about though given that we've been above freezing (air temperature wise) for 6 days solid.

Temperature a roasting 9c at Embra airport and that should really start to clear anything still lying about in this area.

Metoffice temperature forecast for tonight/overnight was 3 to 5c so they're well wide of the mark on that one, well here anyway.

Kiss goodbye the to last of your snow (in most areas) - sick of the damn stuff anyway

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Edited January 15, 2010 by by-tor

[LomondSnowstorm]

I know it well - lochanhully that is.

Was great as an early teenager. We used to go up to play pool, swim and see if we could pull; new girls arrived every week seeking a wee holiday romance. Cool, because after a week you could choose a new challenge when the next lot of holiday makers arrived.

I would never think of such a thing now of course; being a respectable married man.

Anyways, to keep on topic; I like the posts from LSS. Maybe it's because I'm an addict, but I feel the cold ain't too far away and could well be coming back next week. To be honest, it's good to have a little break - makes watching for the next event all the more exciting.

Sounds rather like the Inbetweeners to be honest (doubt that many people on here watch that though)

I think perhaps I'm ignoring the obvious:

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100115/12/144/ukmintemp.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100115/12/144/ukprec.png

Snow, maybe freezing rain, on Thursday morning, with some snow showers possible on Wednesday.

Look any further than that at your peril at the moment!

[snowy owl]

Well managed a flat tyre today in the snowy remnants - not nice i can tell you.

Anyways will be glad to wash away all that salt and grit and start anew.

Now wheres that snow gone - Wed/Thurs maybe? beyond that as many have said who knows??!! BUT i am enjoying waiting to see what develops on our scottie thread.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Sounds rather like the Inbetweeners to be honest (doubt that many people on here watch that though)

I think perhaps I'm ignoring the obvious:

http://charts.netwea...4/ukmintemp.png

http://charts.netwea.../144/ukprec.png

Snow, maybe freezing rain, on Thursday morning, with some snow showers possible on Wednesday.

Look any further than that at your peril at the moment!

Nice potential. Thanks for keeping up the chart posts.

Got a good feeling about next week and looking forward to the ongoing kilted thread.

[Cheggers]

I see the GFS pub run sticking to it's GFS guns very similar to the 12Z so far.

Interesting comment from Nick F on the MOD page 15.

Edited January 15, 2010 by Cheggers

[skifreak]

+6c and mostly clear in Inverness. Snow has firmed up again and is distinctly frozen and crunch, plus icy where packed despite the temp, DP just below 2c and no wind helping the snow!

Barring a super sustained warm up, there'll be skiing until june on that lot. Not sure what they'll do with the M1 poma. From what I can see, the cable wheels on some of the pylons are now just head height!

Head height to a Ptarmigan maybe now on some....

Then (a year ago) and now (Friday afternoon) from the Daylodge Webcam.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

+6c and mostly clear in Inverness. Snow has firmed up again and is distinctly frozen and crunch, plus icy where packed despite the temp, DP just below 2c and no wind helping the snow!

Head height to a Ptarmigan maybe now on some....

Then (a year ago) and now (Friday afternoon) from the Daylodge Webcam.

That is brilliant. Love it. The depth of the drift on the M1 poma is incredible.

[Snooz]

Evening folks, sorry broke one of my rules of not reading all previous posts first so I apologise if I'm repeating..

.. that is an amazing photo of the Funicular - thanks for showing the scale!! - I suppose it's really hard to understand how different this winter is ALL around! - it's a bit (loose connection!) like me digging and digging our access road, done it heaps of times before - though this year it's on a much grander scale., weeks as opposed to days

We're "used to it" apparently, and I presume by the digger/blower photos that you are too (well at least you're prepared for the "just in case" ).. ONLY for us all (even those further south) it's possibly X 3-5 magnitude perhaps? - PS: don't bite if those figures didn't quite happen in your area please ..

We here still have total snow cover too, despite the thaw, which is not surprising given the amount - 50cm at peak cover - -though tomorrow may well bring yet another different picture. The novelty/weirdness if you like, here the last couple of days is that the greenery, tree, bushes etc.. have been green again, that 's the biggie (and I unfortunately remember some of the "winters of old" though not quite '63..) I cannot remeber when so much snow stuck around for so long..

We, despite being a few miles inland from the coast DO NOT have the ice packs that are being so widely commented on.. I believe that is also because not all areas are being compacted by unnatural means? - there is a path through the park which has been walked for the last month which is ice ice baby.. but the park's snow level (i.e, the uncompacted bit) is still as deep - the "thaw" or mother nature has kept it all in balance.. now to me that's what has been missing for the last few years..

PS: anyone peeking their heads in, just to see.. there have been winters past that we may have had a couple of inches (or more for a short time), but were to scared to report/photo/enjoy the fact because "it was expected" here - so please let me take the opportunity to say that if you want a pleasurable Forum experience, accept what you have is because of you live, it's not a competition that you're going to be able to score points from or be remembered becasue of.. no matter which year you post!

We have a saying in Scotland (well in these parts anyway) that what goes around comes around.. that pretty much sums up Mother Nature doncha think

[LomondSnowstorm]

The problem for us for the rest of the winter is that we'll be expecting something that matches what we've already seen, perhaps even betters it! In normal winter's I would be quite excited about the current output, with a possible snow event Wednesday/ Thursday and temperatures not really all that mild, but having seen high latitude blocking in all its glory only blizzards or extreme cold will do!! We still have about 65 days of major snowfall potential, with the usual cold spell in mid-February still a month away! The way I see it, anymore snow is really a massive bonus.

I also think this winter has blown away the Fife snow shield theory, don't you think Innes?

Incidentally, the 18Z GFS is very interesting, bringing more entrenched cold uppers for eastern, northern and central areas along with potentially a few hours of convective showers and some frontal snow Thursday morning :http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Obviously a lot will change but the wind is from a better direction with little coastal modification away from south and west coasts. If it hits at exactly the right time, probably around 8am when temperatures are at their lowest, we might see some hefty accumulations across the central belt.

Thaw almost complete here, with a very warm 5.6C recorded, probably the first above average temperature recorded this year and the warmest in 30 days! Quite something in the christmas pudding (this is still going to come out as christmas pudding isn't it. Well what I mean is the modern e ra, Ian Brown's former favourite word before the swear filter changed it to xmas pudding and he turned back into a reasonable poster again!).

LS

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Its about +7C in Glasgow tonight. Amazing to think that this time last week I was out in temperatures of about -12, and that during the day it had been -7.

I wish we had that more often, at least once every winter maybe. It's winter and it should be winter weather! None of this mild mucky nonsense!

[Big Innes Madori]

The problem for us for the rest of the winter is that we'll be expecting something that matches what we've already seen, perhaps even betters it! In normal winter's I would be quite excited about the current output, with a possible snow event Wednesday/ Thursday and temperatures not really all that mild, but having seen high latitude blocking in all its glory only blizzards or extreme cold will do!! We still have about 65 days of major snowfall potential, with the usual cold spell in mid-February still a month away! The way I see it, anymore snow is really a massive bonus.

I also think this winter has blown away the Fife snow shield theory, don't you think Innes?

Incidentally, the 18Z GFS is very interesting, bringing more entrenched cold uppers for eastern, northern and central areas along with potentially a few hours of convective showers and some frontal snow Thursday morning :http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Obviously a lot will change but the wind is from a better direction with little coastal modification away from south and west coasts. If it hits at exactly the right time, probably around 8am when temperatures are at their lowest, we might see some hefty accumulations across the central belt.

Thaw almost complete here, with a very warm 5.6C recorded, probably the first above average temperature recorded this year and the warmest in 30 days! Quite something in the christmas pudding (this is still going to come out as christmas pudding isn't it. Well what I mean is the modern e ra, Ian Brown's former favourite word before the swear filter changed it to xmas pudding and he turned back into a reasonable poster again!).

LS

Aye LS,

The Fife Snow Shield of recent winters has indeed been removed this winter and even though there has been a thaw over the last 5 days or so, I can still boast a good coverage in these parts with only a few green patches starting to peek through the now long, long lasting snow cover of December 09/January 10

But! I have to say that the maximum snow depth from this period and minimum low temps never got anywhere near the snow depths or low temps which we had in these parts during the 1980's winters

Big Innes

[lorenzo]

Windy this morning and the compact ice is beginning to slowly ebb away, green things are visible.

A digger has cleared our street and now a couple of massive piles of snow are evident, brown and white - unsightly.

ECM and GFS both keen on our Scandi high extending its icy grasp westwards on Wednesday night into Thursday as yet another atlantic low is barrelled north towards iceland.

Looking 50:50 as to whether the upper temps will be cold enough on the east coast to bring snow, need to wait for another 2 days of models to pin this down I reckon.

Keep an eye on Greenland some interesting action on the charts up there... These lows firing north really do have a knock on effect on the cold pool way up north and smash it in all directions, whether this is to the SW or SE looks to determine our weather for the end of Jan into February. This ECM chart shows exactly that and a fragmented cold pool...

Edited January 16, 2010 by lorenzo

[Snowplough33]

Morning all. Dont need to do snow checks this morning. Mild, wet and windy sums up. Seems like ages since we had this weather. Even at the car park at Glenshee its +1, still snowing with whiteout conditions though. Intersting read on conditions at Cairngorm http://ski.visitscotland.com/conditions/cairngorm/ Sounds like a nightmare. Every moring the digging out of snow gets filled in overnight. With the initial winds and drifting from the east, and now south, that cant help either. Still when the wether settles its gonna be very special up thete.

Another twist in the GSF today. Ends with a fairly cold west flow, I assume sun and snow showers, then a blast from the North, but this is way out in FI, so will see. Have a nice day

[Stuart]

Morning all and guest what it raining lol

[Northernlights]

Very strong winds overnight have eaten into the snow cover but there is still some way to go, at least we missed a lot of the rain,currently 4c so still not what you would call mild especially with the wind strength.

[Big Innes Madori]

Morning All,

A heavy thaw here during the night, although it doesn't appear to have rained very much? quite a bit of green now showing with only the deepest patches of snow still putting up a fight

Woke up to the noise of a JCB howkin away at the still hard ice Toboggan run which used to be the road

Sittin here with a new batch o' Porage (slightly salted and topped with a drizzle of double cream)

Noo thats what ahm talkin aboot

When does Ice Age two start? next week per chance

Big Innes