Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 19:

[Snowplough33]

Thanks very much as always LS.........great breakdown and easy for us all to understand.

Edited January 18, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Stick in in the Climate thread and I'll reply to any further issues. Safe to say I disagree with most of your points though (will very briefly reply for folk on here)! Yes the big hot shiny ball provides virtually all our heat, but it doesn't vary much. Solar changes do not dominate present climate, but may have been the greatest driver when other drivers were smaller (e.g. Maunder). GHGs have increased by ~30% - much bigger change than solar, nice physically-demonstrated mechanism for enhancing warming too. The consensus view is that climate is not all 100% CO2 [GHGs] - ENSO, volcanic and solar (!) are accounted for. Yes NERC are climate-dominated at the mo... because it's about the the biggest issue out there, sorry to hear about your failed applications. But things that 'don't fit' often produce the best science results, so if you have good verifiable data it will be accepted, there's plenty of outlets for good original papers! My suspicion from your 'global warming freak' para is that you've not considered all the issues in sufficient detail, maybe I'm wrong (and I don't mean anything personal) but I'm only reading into what you've written.

Back on topic, I'm quite intrigued by the possibilities for snow in Edinburgh on Thurs. No Meto warnings but Meto charts and GFS indicating some reasonable wintry precipitation. That said we've only just got rid of the last snow, and it's nice not to worry about ice anymore!

sss

Hi,

I did say I was not anti global warming.... I do have a masters degree in geology, so know more than the average joe about the history of the earth's climate and yet I still I said I am no expert. While I agree there is very strong evidence that warming has been occuring, I am still concerned about exactly what influence we have had and what natural factors may act to accelerate or limit things. Yep, CO2 levels are well up and little doubt it was mainly due to us. However, the temperature of the earth goes up and down like a yoyo on both the short (10's years), to med (100's to 1000's) to long (100,000's) terms. We're still in a glaciation (ice at the poles not being the norm), albiet at the end of one. The problem is that the earth's climate is an inherently complex system with so many positive and negative feeback mechanisms that to say we understand it enough to predict it in detail is dangerous. I'm something of fence sitter on the whole topic, but what I don't like is the general attitude (particularly in the media) that anyone who is AGW is mad and their science rubbish. We need to take all views into account rationally if we are to maintain consenus. As for NERC; that's my colleagues experiences. I'm more EPSRC and industy; have been involved in H2 storage and CO2 sequestration research (i.e. GW related/mitigation). Thankfully, not written an unsuccessful proposal as yet although sure it will happen some time!

For the sun spots, there does seem to be some relationship. Not something that should be dismissed so easily anyway. I'll be annoying by asking the simple question that as the sun warms us from -273 to + 20 C, would an 0.1% change in output not be 0.3 C for a direct correlation of output vs T? Some suggest variation of 0.2%, so 0.6 C? Of course it is not as simple as that but hope you get my point.

I'm not going into the CC thread as I don't have the time to get into such debates. However, what I say about scientists is true in my experience; if they stake their reputation on a theory/result, they can be extremely reluctant to accept they might have got it wrong. Many are also sheep that flock to the latest hot topic. I'm busy at the moment convincing my academic peers that 20 years worth of reasearch on something has been a largely a waste of time. My 8 industry sponsors accept the new data without much debate, however those academics that have been writing papers on the subject for years don't like this at all and quite a few completely refuse to accept it, even when their sponsors (or mine now) and other peers do. Of course this does not apply to all scientists; far from it, but unfortunately it is the case for many. I commented on a nature paper once saying it was wrong and showed some very simple logic/data as to why. I was seriously berated by reviewers for it. Then, people looked into what I said and when they tested it, found I was completely right. So much for expert reviewers. The author still sticks to his guns (he's considered a world expert btw) and says the 'computer which had the data was damaged'. I'm serious.

Last I will say on the topic is keep an open mind. By all means form an opinion, but accept others views and research might be as good or better than your own. Don't believe everything you read in the papers (news and journals that is).

Back to the weather - we're headed for a frost. Maybe 5 inches of sparkling snow still lying. Will now read some of LSS's summaries as my earlier visit to the model thread left me none the wiser.

Apologies for the off topic divergence.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I have to say that the models look even less settled on FI than yesterday..... LS

Nice summary again LSS - well balanced as usual. Got a frost here now (-0.7) and the big problem is ice; well slippy in the garden and around the cars, but too hard going digging it out.

Shall not get too excited about wed/thurs as its still hard to call and short lived, although the hints of maybe something more sustained on the distant horizon shall keep me interested.

[Cheggers]

Great update LS, it will nice to get rid of the mildish wet miserable days, although today was an exception.

Saw 3 gritters this evening, so I take it they are not following the Met warning for heavy rain then!!! :lol:

[Ross B]

Saw 3 gritters this evening, so I take it they are not following the Met warning for heavy rain then!!!

The met warning isn't til thursday so i don't know how that matters

They managed to put a good cm of grit on the roads here, i guess the grit shortage is over then...

[Mandy Langlands]

Talking of frost,,had to laugh at my father earlier when he informed that there was going to be a hard frost tonight, i replied,...... yip stars are shining and clear sky! aye he said! but look at that moon lying on its back! sure sign of a hard frost!! lol

mandy x

[snowy owl]

well LS great summary there. looks interesting for Thursday. Will await progress tmrw and see how it looks.

Interesting again for trends, maybe we can enjoy some further positive signals for a return to some cold?

Although i have to admit it was rather nice seeing the sun and having a no ice/snow day today. But i do still love snow.

[blitzen]

Well I couldn't begin to even try to attempt to decipher the 18zs tonight they are so confusing! All I can see is a mess. We should be in an easterly by as early as Monday according to the 18zs. Will need LS and his expertise to throw some light on things.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's now -0.2C here, the first time since last Sunday morning that it's been below freezing! 18Z GFS is an upgrade again in every sense other than the dewpoints, which still hold above freezing along the east coast! Never mind, all other variables for snow are there - precipitation and uppers below -8, check , 528 thickness line, not always a neccesity but always useful to have on your side, check (almost) , 850-1000 thicknesses. preferably 1290 or lower, check , but it would be just our luck to pull in a bit of modified air off the north sea to wreck the situation ! Anymore upgrades though and that shouldn't matter.

Anyone caught the ECM 12Z? http://212.100.247.145/ecmimages/20100118/12/ecm500.168.png Pretty nice easterly flow, though the source becomes gradually less cold, meaning we really need further height rises to our north to pull the cold air in. http://212.100.247.145/ecmimages/20100118/12/ecm500.216.png http://212.100.247.145/ecmimages/20100118/12/ecm500.240.png

Note the purple heading out of the arctic, which would bring an incredibly cold northerly down if it heads our way.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well I couldn't begin to even try to attempt to decipher the 18zs tonight they are so confusing! All I can see is a mess. We should be in an easterly by as early as Monday according to the 18zs. Will need LS and his expertise to throw some light on things.

18Z is very hard to decipher really - it brings Thursday night's band back over us http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/18/141/ukprec.png with uppers around -5 http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/18/144/h850t850eu.png so very marginal, though it could upgrade to something quite major - definitely one to watch. After that, the easterly takes a while to get going, with uppers not too low until about 180 hours http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/18/168/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/18/168/h850t850eu.png However, once we're in the colder air it looks tough to shift, though low pressure sits right over Greenland, spoiling any hopes of the high moving westwards but bringing significant snowfall risk as the low moves southeast http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100118/18/216/h850t850eu.png . Let's not kid ourselves though, predicting 48 hours away is hard enough at the moment without going much further. I have no doubts these charts will change totally in the next few days as they have done in the last few, but it is encouraging to see most models going with colder solutions in the medium term. The block to our east looks stronger than expected, though heights are reluctant to rise to our northwest in FI, something which is unlikely to be resolved in the next few hours.

Let's see what tomorrow brings!

LS

[blitzen]

Seems simple when you Analise it! Bit disappointed that once again we could pick up some modification tho' I read that sea temps were dropping, but obviously not enough. Does look as if we are in for another hit next week tho' doesn't it?

once we're in the colder air it looks tough to shift, though low pressure sits right over Greenland, spoiling any hopes of the high moving westwards

can I ask what is probably a stupid question LS? That low over Greenland that you refer to, is it part of the polar vortex?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Seems simple when you Analise it! Bit disappointed that once again we could pick up some modification tho' I read that sea temps were dropping, but obviously not enough. Does look as if we are in for another hit next week tho' doesn't it?

can I ask what is probably a stupid question LS? That low over Greenland that you refer to, is it part of the polar vortex?

I believe so, but in the ECM you can see it appearing out of north Scandi towards us. Now this is a pretty rare phenomenon, which would bring incredibly low temperatures if it plunged towards us http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1985_Arctic_outbreak .Something like that can happen. Today's model output has, in all honesty, confused the heck out of me. From the short term outlook whereby the GFS shows -9 uppers still being prone to coastal modification to the extent that dewpoints are progged above freezing, to the strengthening of the siberian block to the point where 24 hours ago what seemed like a spell of intense lows moving east eventually heralding a northerly now replaced by a messy setup with a siberian high influencing us with still marginal uppers up until FI, with height rises to the northwest non-existent. I suppose this is the time when gut instinct, intimate knowledge of the teleconnections and weather models and just good sense are going to be the key assets. My gut feeling is that eventually we'll end up with a pretty major cold spell, though probably not directly through the block to our east but from eventual height rises from Greenland, but nothing is set in stone by any means!

LS

[blitzen]

I believe so, but in the ECM you can see it appearing out of north Scandi towards us. Now this is a pretty rare phenomenon, which would bring incredibly low temperatures if it plunged towards us

Had a look and see what you mean. It would really be something if that verified!

[Mondy]

Either snow soon or give me a sub-950mb LP churning up the Atlantic

[LomondSnowstorm]

Either snow soon or give me a sub-950mb LP churning up the Atlantic

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1993/Rrea00119930111.gif Both please! The one thing missing has been a massive snowfall of a foot or more widely. We had two falls of five inches, and about 4 of 2ish inches, but I just want one biggie! If Thursday upgrades much more though then there's a chance, perhaps only a very slight one, but a chance nonetheless of some more significant frontal snow. Oddly, the east coast still hold on to slightly higher surface air, but perhaps this will be less than forecast, as temperatures on even the NMM were forecast around 2-3C tonight and it's currently -0.6C ! Heavy precipitation +dewpoints around or below freezing equals what? With these uppers, I suggest rush hour mayhem ensuing on the M77 due to a massive ice storm! Uppers still below -5 in the northeast though, so there's surely a chance of snow initially given the land track for these areas.

Tiaraidh an dràsda!

LS

[blitzen]

A difference between the 18zs and the 00zs. We appear to be in an easterly by Sunday now.

Edited January 19, 2010 by Blitzen

[blitzen]

Looks like a colder run from T108 (Saturday lunch) to T174.

Edited January 19, 2010 by Blitzen

[blitzen]

Appears to be a snow risk too from Saturday night through to Monday morning: Edited January 19, 2010 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

A bit odd that a slight downgrade in uppers actually means easily sub-0C dewpoints across Scotland for Wednesday night! Still, we do look to be in for a good few hours of convection showers before that front moves in. However, remember yesterday when the 18Z showed the front moving back over us? Well that's what the snow risk on Sunday comes from. Now that could deliver quite a dumping of snow if it came off, as it is an atlantic front pepped up by the North Sea and brought back at us with -7 uppers. The big problem in the long run is the low pressure over Greenland http://charts.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100119/00/ecm500.192.png However with the MJO moving to this phase http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=95948 I suspect the models may extend that high a bit further west in the next few runs.

LS

[blitzen]

Frosty and foggy here this morning. Temps and dewpoints -0.5c wind WSW.

[Methuselah]

'Morining all...-5C with freezing-fog patches...

[Gilly]

Morning All. Just a bit nippy again -6C.

Still ice and snow lying in patches around us, waiting for more perhaps? Seems the possible snow risk for wednesday and thursday has gone for the time being.

I dont think we have seen the last of the white stuff!!

Appears to be a snow risk too from Saturday night through to Monday morning:

Amazing how it always manages to curve around the Inverness area!!!:wallbash:

[Northernlights]

Currently -1c here but colder at the coast with Kinloss at -4c. Old snow and ice sparkling this morning. Have about 40% cover in areas exposed to sun and wind and several north facing fields with woods to the south where cover is up to 90% and still 6 inches deep. This does feel like a proper old January where remmnants of snow are left after a gradual thaw only to refreeze in time for the next snowfall. The half mile long farm road is a sheet of ice so we have had no bin collection, no postie, no oil/diesel deliveries and no white van deliveries for nearly 3 weeks now but we are still negotiating it. Heard on Moray Firth radio yesterday that Highland region are only putting grit on side roads and school bus routes with no salt in it to conserve salt stocks and nothing will be gritted in the evening if no frost is forecast before midnight.

[Snowplough33]

Has the GSF machine broken this morning......come on this is the UK, not the artic!!!

[snowy owl]

Major black ice here this morning. really nasty driving conditions. roads closed and road accidents all over! Decided not to venture far today as there has been a pile up on the road i was planning to go on! Nasty.

Anyhow charts are amazing again, looks like we will see snow at some point if not Thurs then maybe even by the weekend - all to play for. Off to have another look at the charts.

That is SOME chart SP!!!

Edited January 19, 2010 by snowy owl