Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 19:

[Snowplough33]

Hi SP33...I was off sick for much of yesterday, so I don't know very-much about it...I'm sure there'll be some kink of link, though...I do enjoy the Scottish thread!

The Scottish thread is ACE. A lot of us only have a basic knowledge of weather, so would be shot down on the other threads. On here we areable to ask questions without feeling stupid and exchange relevant weather gossip. Hope the outgoing GSF looks better than the 00 run.

Hope you are feeling better today.

Thanks SP33

[LadyPakal]

Another miserable day here - wet, windy & grey. Warmest (allegedly) than it has been in a long time but with the wind it just feels cold.

[snowy owl]

Certainly windy here but dry so far. Doesn't feel terribly warm either in that wind, in fact its pretty bitingly cold in that wind! lol!!

Not looking forward to wind and rain later today/tmrw. mind you it might wash away some of that lying grit/salt!

In fact it will be really weird seeing the roads, pavements, fields etc without snow on them! Must be how it feels in Siberia and Alaska during their spring/summer.

Pete - look after yourself. A wee nap. Hot Toddy etc

Edited January 15, 2010 by snowy owl

[Methuselah]

The Scottish thread is ACE. A lot of us only have a basic knowledge of weather, so would be shot down on the other threads. On here we areable to ask questions without feeling stupid and exchange relevant weather gossip. Hope the outgoing GSF looks better than the 00 run.

Hope you are feeling better today.

Thanks SP33

Thank you, mate. Much better! :)

[lorenzo]

Good news that this thread will remain open in some guise..

The model output discussion thread is good for learning on and seeing some great analysis - however it is not without fault.

Some of the posters on there are flippant to the point of arrogance, and whilst as a whole this forum is probably the most well mannered I have come across ever, it is a shame that there is not a little more patience shown should someone newer post something.

Next Thursday looks like being the soonest the cold really threatens to kick in again according to ECM. GFS continues to prog the mild atlantic as its favoured outcome.

Both still way out in FI though. From what I can gather much to do with what the Polar Vortex does and whether it shifts, and where it shifts too - this will determine what drives the pools of cold air.

Here's to a snowy return from the 24th onwards.

[Snowplough33]

Good news that this thread will remain open in some guise..

The model output discussion thread is good for learning on and seeing some great analysis - however it is not without fault.

Some of the posters on there are flippant to the point of arrogance, and whilst as a whole this forum is probably the most well mannered I have come across ever, it is a shame that there is not a little more patience shown should someone newer post something.

Next Thursday looks like being the soonest the cold really threatens to kick in again according to ECM. GFS continues to prog the mild atlantic as its favoured outcome.

Both still way out in FI though. From what I can gather much to do with what the Polar Vortex does and whether it shifts, and where it shifts too - this will determine what drives the pools of cold air.

Here's to a snowy return from the 24th onwards.

AAAHH. Alot from your post explains some stuff that I was not understanding from the M T.

Thanks

[LadyPakal]

In fact it will be really weird seeing the roads, pavements, fields etc without snow on them! Must be how it feels in Siberia and Alaska during their spring/summer.

I was walking home last night from the bus stop, thinking how weird the pavements & roads looked - unfamiliar even. OK, so I only moved in to my new home at the end of Novembers but still... they looked odd to me.

[LadyPakal]

CAIRNGORM MOUNTAIN - COLLECTION OF PHOTOS FROM THURSDAY 14th JANUARY 2010

[Big Innes Madori]

I know how you feel. I think we have far too many members who are scared of the mad hustle and bustle of the Model output Discussion, which is a real mix of informative posts, regional-centric whining, people looking for a reaction and a lot of off-topic posts based on (I'll give you this evening's example) whether there was a bartlett high in FI on the GFS. I thought I had to waid in on that one as the serious posters were losing it a bit but it gets far too heated over nothing at all lots of the time, and most people end up getting drowned out or have their posts deleted. This thread helps build people's confidence, allowing us all to contribute without being made to feel useless, and also giving us some much needed localised perspective on the models which is just lacking on any other thread. In fact, this thread was the only reason I, and I suspect many others, plucked up the courage to join!

Anyway, where did Big Innes and Shuggee get to?

edit: Just saw Paul's post. I can understand how hard it must be to moderate the forum, and I appreciate the valiant work they do to keep the threads on topic and informative for all.

LS

Still here lurking in the background mate, reading and enjoying everyone's contributions to our Scottish thread!

Keep up the good work y'all

Big Innes.

Edited January 15, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[Guest]

I was walking home last night from the bus stop, thinking how weird the pavements & roads looked - unfamiliar even. OK, so I only moved in to my new home at the end of Novembers but still... they looked odd to me.

You can see your pavements?? I wish we could see ours, they are still encased in a thick layer of ice covered in water, which is making for a slippy stroll to and from the school to drop BoyCatch off. Hopefully by Monday the ice will have melted away as I am sick of it now. It looks likely that we will make it to tomorrow with enough snow/ice cover to qualify for a Met-O snow day; please rain all weekend Mr Weather and get rid of it!!!

[LadyPakal]

You can see your pavements?? I wish we could see ours, they are still encased in a thick layer of ice covered in water, which is making for a slippy stroll to and from the school to drop BoyCatch off. Hopefully by Monday the ice will have melted away as I am sick of it now. It looks likely that we will make it to tomorrow with enough snow/ice cover to qualify for a Met-O snow day; please rain all weekend Mr Weather and get rid of it!!!

For the last 4 days or so it has done nothing but rain, be windy and has been a relatively steady 3-4 degrees. I'll happily swap you our wind & rain for your ice...

Edited January 15, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Guest]

For the last 4 days or so it has done nothing but rain, be windy and has been a relatively steady 3-4 degrees. I'll happily swap you our wind & rain for your ice...

We've had wind and rain too, it's just not shifting the snow/ice very quickly. Actually, that's wrong as it pretty much snowed all day yesterday leaving a slight covering. That nice snow has gone now, just grey mush left and the fondant icing in the gardens/fields!!

[LadyPakal]

After the whiteness of the last few weeks, all this grey dreary stuff is so depressing...

[Hairy Celt]

We've had wind and rain too, it's just not shifting the snow/ice very quickly. Actually, that's wrong as it pretty much snowed all day yesterday leaving a slight covering. That nice snow has gone now, just grey mush left and the fondant icing in the gardens/fields!!

About the same here, mush everywhere, some very slippery, some just soft slop, and sugar in the gardens. The hills and fields still look absolutely white pretty well down to sea level nearly everywhere that isn't wooded. Warm today too, been up to 7.0C, the warmest for about a month. I'd guess things will look very different by the beginning of next week though with temps due to rise (NW forecast a max of 2.9C for here today, how useful).

I would like some snow off a good northerly soon please, none of this mushy crap off the North Sea :o

[Guest]

After the whiteness of the last few weeks, all this grey dreary stuff is so depressing...

Oh for those long(ish) days of bright sunshine and crisp white snow underfoot. At least this thaw should eventually have the decency to melt everything, you can't tell which bits are ice and which bits are normal pavement. It's all just one big dirty mess!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Oh for those long(ish) days of bright sunshine and crisp white snow underfoot. At least this thaw should eventually have the decency to melt everything, you can't tell which bits are ice and which bits are normal pavement. It's all just one big dirty mess!

I can see the pavement now, and it is not a pretty sight I can tell you! The kerb appears to have buckled and cracked due to the permafrost and there are still huge grit patches alongside ice. I really just want the thaw to get rid of the ice and grit, just so we can start anew when the next spell comes. Even the cover on the bottom half of the hill looks fairly patchy! I doubt Cairngorm's snow is going anywhere in the coming days, with all of our rain falling as sleet and snow above munro height.

Will check the models and possibly do another summary after all the 12Zs have come out.

LS

edit: Game on again with the UKMO and GFS 12Z!

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100115/12/114/h500slp.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100115/12/132/0degisotherm.png

It then conclusively knocks the atlantic out into FI:

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100115/12/180/h500slp.png

A vast improvement on the last few runs for the long term.

UKMO gives a colder feed for Wednesday, with snowfall potential from the approaching fronts for eastern and northern areas especially.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?15-17

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?15-17

If the ECM can come up with something similar, it may well be game on, though the experts are split as to the eventual outcome, with many suggesting the atlantic winning overall, though TEITS and Nick Sussex still feel the block might give the spell shown in the 12Z with JH going for a 70-30 chance of northwesterly blocking by the end of the month and into February, so really hard to call still, especially given the latest output.

LS

Edited January 15, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[snowy owl]

Hi LS great info, just checked in to see what was brewing with the charts and your fantastic summary was right there.

As GP and others said lots happening and lots to watch out for. Developments are most definitely very interesting and progressing much sooner than i had imagined. Looks like Tue/Wed of next week keeps popping up as a possible easterly feed for us.

Who knows where the polar vortex is going and whats gonna happen next - i am hooked !! as usual

[Snowplough33]

Evening fellow snow maniacs............I dont have the knowledge of LS ect, but I can read the basics of the latest GSF and its miles better than the earlier offering, which was horrid! The High vanished completely off the chart to the east on the 06 run. This one looks much better! Fingers crossed it improves further and sends Scotland into deep freeze.

[Methuselah]

'Evening all! I'm looking forward to a warm-up - however temporary it may be... :blush: :blush:

[LomondSnowstorm]

It appears that after next week, the real threat of northerly blocking is not from the east but from the west, though where the siberian high ends up is quite important - cold lovers like myself want it to either disintegrate leaving a decent scandi trough allowing for northeasterlies or to ridge west as it does on the 12Z, with the worst case scenario being the high sinking south, leaving us in a spell of southwesterlies and making it harder for the block to the north to get the jet to move south again. The high may annoy us at times as we think that without it we could get renewed blocking from Greenland but with it in place, there is always the chance of an easterly and without it the Atlantic would just take over. Still, this evening the ECM remains the crucial run, though I still doubt we'll get any definite answers from it given the model fluctuations in recent days. Thought I'd also post this image, showing just how uncertain the outlook for next week onwards is. Note how big a spread there is across the east of the atlantic trough and especially over Greenland, which will have a big impact on the longer term outlook as well.

LS

[Snowplough33]

It appears that after next week, the real threat of northerly blocking is not from the east but from the west, though where the siberian high ends up is quite important - cold lovers like myself want it to either disintegrate leaving a decent scandi trough allowing for northeasterlies or to ridge west as it does on the 12Z, with the worst case scenario being the high sinking south, leaving us in a spell of southwesterlies and making it harder for the block to the north to get the jet to move south again. The high may annoy us at times as we think that without it we could get renewed blocking from Greenland but with it in place, there is always the chance of an easterly and without it the Atlantic would just take over. Still, this evening the ECM remains the crucial run, though I still doubt we'll get any definite answers from it given the model fluctuations in recent days. Thought I'd also post this image, showing just how uncertain the outlook for next week onwards is. Note how big a spread there is across the east of the atlantic trough and especially over Greenland, which will have a big impact on the longer term outlook as well

LS

It quite amazing how much GSF can change run by run. I dont know if you saw the 06z run but completely differant to 12z run once it got a few days out.

[Cheggers]

I think the 12Z and 00Z have been the most consistent of the models over the last month or so.

Our street is now a death trap, several inches of ice and water, can hardly walk amongst the ruts etc, any way we need a clean canvas for the next cold spell.

[igloo]

It quite amazing how much GSF can change run by run. I dont know if you saw the 06z run but completely differant to 12z run once it got a few days out.

yes i have to agree i dont no why if a run comes out every 6 hours it can be completely different at +120 than the last it tends to be a common problem with the GFS . one thing for sure its not in the same league as the euro models. even the americans cant trust there own model that says it all

[Northernlights]

Steady thaw with hardly any rain today at about 4c max currently 2c and on a sheltered part of the farm road there must be a ground frost as the snow is sparkling again.We still have about 12 inches on the ground but most has gone from the roofs. Will be another week before it is nearly all gone at this rate. With the odd frosty night possibly even longer and then we will be wondering if it is waiting for more snow to arrive as I was told by my elders when a child.

We now have about 10 hares coming right up to turnip pit at the farm to feed, a sign of how little vegetation is avilable to them with still deep snow cover.

[Snowplough33]

Oh dear ECM is horrid

Not to worry, by tomorrow ECm will have done a U-turn and showing baltic weather and GSF will be showing warm.........