Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Lewis]

Edit: And if the BBC is correct then I'm going for 15-25cm of snow for West/South/North West Yorkshire

And you say i go way over the top on estimations, 8cm-10cm at the very max for higher ground (and thats pushing it)

Lower ground, rain,sleet,snow mix. Friday is now a non event (complete non event)

[Sammy21]

I am sure that the weather forecast can all change by tomorrow at 6:00 as the cold hit us as the mild now to disappear and that rain could get less and bring some snow in for low levels:) let see if it changes back this is the problem

that it forecast week before and this high pressure pushing the snow further each day along extra but it too early that it will snow but it can happen anytime before spring or into spring:)

I thought the previous snow we got was not hardly anything and we should of got more inches of snow in Lincoln& North Lincolnshire

I am sure there got to be some more snow for us as we did not get anything what we should of had not settled well, Last year we had 2 decades road was covered this year it was all slush and wet

the previous year of the 2 decades we had I remembered that it was same as the 2 decades covered well

And also last year we had snow in Feb

From Sam

Edited January 27, 2010 by Sammy21

[fazzafarrand]

Well its hit 9.C here today and the last bit of snow I had from my lad's snowman has gone, he will be upset.

Built on the 10th of Jan and there are some photo's in the public gallery.

Lets hope for some more over the weekend and in to next week.....................

[Cheese Rice]

And you say i go way over the top on estimations, 8cm-10cm at the very max for higher ground (and thats pushing it)

Lower ground, rain,sleet,snow mix. Friday is now a non event (complete non event)

If the precipitation is snow throughout I wouldn't be surprised if many areas saw 15-25cm, the gfs shows the bulk and the heaviest PPN over North east england http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100127/12/33/ukprec.png this is likely to last for 9-11 hours.

..

The main question is will it snow or rain, the Meto are going for mostly rain, seen as the Meto are pro forecasters I would have to side with them, but there is still a moderate risk of the PPN been snow.

[PMPhotography]

Evening all!

Iv'e been stuck at work the last couple of days and missed out on developments regarding the Northerly. I see now it's changed with mainly rain on Friday now. It's after the rain clears south that we appear to be in line for the showers.

I see many posts on here and forecasts from Meto etc saying the West and east coasts will have snow showers Friday onwards, What I dont understand is how convective showers can effect eastern coasts with winds in the NW quadrant. I know it's basic but I would imagine the showers forming in the N sea but taking a SE track taking them toward the continent.

I'm probably being really dense because Iv'e seen snow in these set ups here so I know it's possible!

Can anyone impart wisdom and help my curiosity?

[Lewis]

If the precipitation is snow throughout I wouldn't be surprised if many areas saw 15-25cm, the gfs shows the bulk and the heaviest PPN over North east england http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100127/12/33/ukprec.png this is likely to last for 9-11 hours.

..

The main question is will it snow or rain, the Meto are going for mostly rain, seen as the Meto are pro forecasters I would have to side with them, but there is still a moderate risk of the PPN been snow.

Your posts are very contredicting..

The other night you was siding with the UKMO, yesterday the BBC (who get their date from the metoffice) and now the UKMO once again.

I understand and can clearly see the precipitation will be over us for a long time, but please before giving mis-leading information because that's what it is to other less experienced members on this forum take a look at the charts.

Thickness

Dews

Isotherm

850's

None of the above are supportive of snowfall even for higher ground, and you need all of the above features to be supportive of snowfall, especially 850's, isotherm, and dew. Not until later on in the afternoon/early evening (when supportive for snowfall), where it will be too late and they will be no accumulations.

It's very easy to read the charts.. It saves a lot of hastle, and will also make your inputs more valuable if the information is accurate. I made the same mistakes a couple of years ago. Taking one run/set of data and coming to a conclusion.

Edited January 27, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Cheese Rice]

Your posts are very contredicting..

The other night you was siding with the UKMO, yesterday the BBC (who get their date from the metoffice) and now the UKMO once again.

I understand and can clearly see the precipitation will be over us for a long time, but please before giving mis-leading information because that's what it is to other less experienced members on this forum take a look at the charts.

Thickness

Dews

Isotherm

850's

None of the above are supportive of snowfall even for higher ground, and you need all of the above features to be supportive of snowfall, especially 850's, isotherm, and dew. Not until later on in the afternoon/early evening (when supportive for snowfall), where it will be too late and they will be no accumulations.

It's very easy to read the charts.. It saves a lot of hastle, and will also make your inputs more valuable if the information is accurate. I made the same mistakes a couple of years ago. Taking one run/set of data and coming to a conclusion.

Fair enough, but I don't use the UKMO charts, I refer to what the BBC and Meto are showing and if they get there data from the UKMO then in a sense I am siding with the UKMO, but there is alot of human input in the BBC forecasts. I only use data from the GFS and sometimes the ECM charts and also the BBC/Meto forecast. And although you are right the GFS shows the thickness etc do not support snow the BBC did mention of snow been a possibly, admittedly on the latest forecasts the BBC have gotten rid of the chance of snow for these areas due to the PPN been further east. But subsequent runs from the GFS have pushed the precipitation further west, so much so that I am more inclined to go for snow for these areas, if the latest run pushes the PPN further west again then the chances will only increase.

[Cheese Rice]

The latest GFS pushes the PPN back east again, which lessens our chance of snow, but at lest the mild section is less prominent on this run.

[Sammy21]

We will see what happens i got my finger crossed before spring.

Edited January 27, 2010 by Sammy21

[Lewis]

Temps aint brilliant considering the feed we already have, i grant you -7 850's aint the coldest but a temp of 6.4c lol!

Getting colder with some snow, although 99.9% of all snow showers will be to the east of the coast, with the odd one or two clipping it.

Into next week there is a lot of uncertainity.

[grab my graupel]

Temps aint brilliant considering the feed we already have, i grant you -7 850's aint the coldest but a temp of 6.4c lol!

Getting colder with some snow, although 99.9% of all snow showers will be to the east of the coast, with the odd one or two clipping it.

Into next week there is a lot of uncertainity.

Yep, According to the NMM, some of those showers could push inland enough for those of us in the East, particularly on Friday Further West, however, looks like being essentially dry

[Lewis]

Yep, According to the NMM, some of those showers could push inland enough for those of us in the East, particularly on Friday Further West, however, looks like being essentially dry

I have not looked at the NMM yet, i shall do so now

Cheers

Dew point just hit 0.4c here, so the dew is deffo dropping. Will be a cold night tonight me thinks before and after any precipitation.

Edited January 28, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Richard Lake]

Evening, just been outside for a smoke, rain tonight as expected, but a few flakes in the heavier showers; its certainly trying to snow. Lincs FM said snow only over the Lincolnshire Wolds, shall be interesting to find how much (if any) on the way to work in the morning.

[Cheese Rice]

A surprising high of 5.6c.

Anyway mostly rain tonight which is a shame, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a period of 1-2 hours of heavy snow on the last area of PPN. The cold air could undercut the front somewhat, especially as the heavy precipitation hangs around.

Edit: On the latest look north forecaster the news presenter said sleet and snow clearing south.

Edited January 28, 2010 by 10123

[Lewis]

A surprising high of 5.6c.

Anyway mostly rain tonight which is a shame, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a period of 1-2 hours of heavy snow on the last area of PPN. The cold air could undercut the front somewhat, especially as the heavy precipitation hangs around.

Edit: On the latest look north forecaster the news presenter said sleet and snow clearing south.

Yep as it will be sleet and snow as it clears south tomorrow.

such a shame aswell, would have given some good accumulations that!

[grab my graupel]

Had a couple of snow showers this morning. The first, which was around 8am, was light, but the second was moderate

and lasted around five minutes. Snow settled nicely too

[grab my graupel]

I seem to be alone this morning Anyway, snow showers becoming more frequent and radar looking good too with plenty

of showers in the North Sea.

[Lewis]

I seem to be alone this morning Anyway, snow showers becoming more frequent and radar looking good too with plenty

of showers in the North Sea.

After seeing the radar, and them all our in the N Sea, i nearly cried

What a waste lol, we will be lucky to get a few.

[grab my graupel]

After seeing the radar, and them all our in the N Sea, i nearly cried

What a waste lol, we will be lucky to get a few.

Morning Lewis, Have you not had any snow showers this morning?

[Lewis]

Morning Lewis, Have you not had any snow showers this morning?

Just N of me near beverly (catwick) family said it was snowing this morning.

Just got the first shower since i have been awake, temp 3.4c with a dew of 0.6c

Rain with some flakes mixed in although it's only light at the moment, ground is very wet. Unless the temp and dew point drops and it comes down pretty heavy, i cannot see it sticking. Later tonight is perfect (5pm) onwards but thats when shower activity looks to die down (hope it does not).

I'll say one thing, now we are in real time, the precipitation is a huge upgrade as to what the models was showing. But hats off to the NMM for being so accurate with the positioning of the main area of showers/precipitation.

Best of luck today and over the coming few days

its going to be cold now, until at least well, could be another 2 weeks of non stop cold

[Lewis]

Temp drop too 2.8c with a dew of -0.6

[grab my graupel]

Just N of me near beverly (catwick) family said it was snowing this morning.

Just got the first shower since i have been awake, temp 3.4c with a dew of 0.6c

Rain with some flakes mixed in although it's only light at the moment, ground is very wet. Unless the temp and dew point drops and it comes down pretty heavy, i cannot see it sticking. Later tonight is perfect (5pm) onwards but thats when shower activity looks to die down (hope it does not).

I'll say one thing, now we are in real time, the precipitation is a huge upgrade as to what the models was showing. But hats off to the NMM for being so accurate with the positioning of the main area of showers/precipitation.

Best of luck today and over the coming few days

its going to be cold now, until at least well, could be another 2 weeks of non stop cold

My slight elevation must be keeping me on the right side of marginal. I noticed that the temps were 5c in the Vale of York,

whilst here, I have temps of 2c and a Dew point of -1. I agree with your comment about the NMM as, once again, it's been

spot on

Having told my neighbours, yesterday, that it would snow today, I'm quite relieved that it has.

[gobbyash]

We have snow

[Lewis]

Another temp drop too 2.6c with a dew of -0.4.

Tonight could be interesting maybe

Possible convergance zone

[grab my graupel]

Another temp drop too 2.6c with a dew of -0.4.

Tonight could be interesting maybe

Possible convergance zone

Where have you seen that mate? sounds 'very' interesting