Model Output Discussion:

[The Weather Dragon]

Upgrade on GFS 06z brings in easterly much earlier - this evenings runs from GFS, ECM & UKMO could be interesting

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Well with this mornings continued disagreement i say bring on 4 pm when the 12z starts to come out, maybe then we may see one of the models back down, hopefully the UKMO.

fingers crossed

SM06

[cooling climate]

Thank you, it is armaggeddon and I just wanted to keep it. On file now thanks to you.

Fred

You could well be deleting them for better charts in a day or two.

The cold is nailed imo but the degree is not.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I suspect 06z op run will be one of the colder members within the 120-168hr timeframe.

It could be. Soon to know anyway

It would be most interesting to see the London ECM ensembles. Unless I'm mistaken (which is quite possible lol!) the one's we have atm are just for the Netherlands. It is quite possible to have cold ensembles for there but we if are 'end of the line' (for eg) in terms of any easterly (or south easterly) airflow it doesn't neccesarily mean we are as cold as the other side of the North Sea

Edited January 30, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[billy]

I really do hope the UKMO backs down regarding bringing in the Atlantic but even the ECM is starting to trend with the UKMO and this normally means the GFS will eventually back down most of the time.

Interesting battle and this afternoon runs won't decide either way(even if the GFS sides with the UKMO) and winter is certainly not over even if the Atlantic does start making an appearance again.

yes but wasnt this mornings ecm a mild outlier

[Tim Bland]

I'm getting a feeling of Dejavu reading this thread today. Only 2 weeks ago all but 1 or 2 of the models where pointing towards the cold pool extending West and even the Meto long range was prommising. This cold pool arrival then got pushed back and back. Here we are 2 weeeks later talking about it comming in a weeks time! I realy hope we do get the beast from the east before the end of Feb. It feels like such a waste with all that cold air and -20 uppers over the continent and we have been a nats hair away from a once in a lifetime winter. It suprises me how people look at the fax charts at +120 to second guess what the Meto are thinking when they put their long term thoughts in plain English on the 16 day forecast every day at 12.30. I do feel that winters like this years will become more frequent in the future as the climate is changing so maybe next year will be the one!

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tim Bland

[Nick F]

The models are having certain difficulties in deciding where any blocking is going to occur as a result of effective propagation from the stratospheric warming. This should be taken into account over the next few days. With the AO tanking negative big time we know that blocking is going to occur just not exactly where!

Yes, uncertainty of the position of blocking to the NE of the UK and the tilt of the Atlantic trough seems to have created a scatter of solutions into the medium range on the 00z output, big scatter on the 00z GEFS after the 5th Feb. Not helped by a strong jet coming off the eastern seaboard with a deep low heading NE over the NW Atlantic from SE USA.

However, good to see the 00z ECM ens mean dipping well below 0C for De Bilt, so still good support for the block to the NE to eventually get undercut by that troublesome Atlantic trough, despite UKMO wanting to lift the trough NE bringing more mobile and milder Atlantic weather. 06z GEFS mean supports the colder continental flow theme too:

[lorenzo]

as Atlantic gets shut out, jet kicks south and pressure builds to NE as well as holding to our NW. Potential snow showers for SE as negative tilt and LP starts to slide inder block. Coldest and snowiest period 9-14 with E to NE flow. BUT T96 to 120 has to fall in line.

Re signal for jet to kick south...this is what I am looking for.

BFTP

Good post BFTP - this is a cracking chart and vital for the set up, in the last cold period over the end of December the JS tracking south had massive influence over the longevity of the cold spell.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I'm getting a feeling of Dejavu reading this thread today. Only 2 weeks ago all but 1 or 2 of the models where pointing towards the cold pool extending West and even the Meto long range was prommising. This cold pool arrival then got pushed back and back. Here we are 2 weeeks later talking about it comming in a weeks time! I realy hope we do get the beast from the east before the end of Feb. It feels like such a waste with all that cold air and -20 uppers over the continent and we have been a nats hair away from a once in a lifetime winter. It suprises me how people look at the fax charts at +120 to second guess what the Meto are thinking when they put their long term thoughts in plain English on the 16 day forecast every day at 12.30. I do feel that winters like this years will become more frequent in the future as the climate is changing so maybe next year will be the one!

It might be that we eventually do see an easterly, but you are right - we have seen plenty of 'jam tomorrow' charts that shouldn't suck people in. Hence why the appeal of looking at ice age FI charts soon holds no further attraction once you have seen the first half dozen!

[Frosty.]

Just seen the GFS 06z

Illustrates perfectly what would happen with all the energy being pumped into the southern arm of the jet with undercutting galore, early FI showing a Bitter Easterly becoming established with huge snow potential and severe frosts. It will make it very, very painful if the ukmo sticks on it's current path towards winter oblivion as a sw'ly pattern could become hard to shift once established and would push the cold block x hundreds of miles further east. I still think it's on a knife-edge and now the 12z runs have even more importance.

[SnowBallz]

The only REAL consistent trend I've seen over the last few days, is how this Easterly remains within FI - and it never ever gets any closer than a week away, even though time is progressing. Now what does THAT say to you? To me, it says that there just isn't enough there for the Easterly to develop, and that's why - when med-term resolution starts kicking it - this vaunted Easterly is kicked out as being the ludicrous idea that it always ever was.

Yesterday 8th Feb was sounded out as being 'the day' to look out for, in respect of this Easterly verifying. You watch, 8th Feb will come and 8th Feb will pass...and yet there will still be people looking at charts, saying that the Easterly is a week away.

Personally, I think we're going to remain in a 'much of a muchness' pattern, with nothing eventful at all really; won't be too cold, and it won't be too mild either - which some might argue is classic end of winter weather. We then crash into spring and watch the evolution take place. That's how I see it. Granted it's not as exciting as wrist-slitting over an Easterly which is never going to arrive - but at least am aware of this fact right here, right now.

[Weather-history]

I think all 3 main models have had there problems this month and for me its hard to tell which one is going to have the right scenario.

I can name two occasions that GFS got it wrong this month, the easterly it never went for 3 weeks ago whilst UKMO and ECM did and it didn't handle the current northerly as well as ECM did. It was basically a flow toppling over a mid Atlantic anticyclone and it stuck to that for a while.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Mr_Data

[lorenzo]

It might be that we eventually do see an easterly, but you are right - we have seen plenty of 'jam tomorrow' charts that shouldn't suck people in. Hence why the appeal of looking at ice age FI charts soon holds no further attraction once you have seen the first half dozen!

Is it time to dig out the wonky Moscow chart again....

[Mark Bayley]

You could well be deleting them for better charts in a day or two.

The cold is nailed imo but the degree is not.

I can't see how its "nailed"...

The UKMO wants to bring the Atlantic back in and has done for the past few runs, the ECM isn't great but not exactly mild while the GEM only brings something noteworthy in towards the end of its run.

ECM 850hpa temps generally around or above freezing. Doesn't mean mild though. Just stuck in no mans land with nothing exactly cold or nothing that mild.

The GFS is the only run (not looked at the smaller models) that brings something noteworthy in, the GFS is not a run i would place faith in! The ECM ensembles are much colder than the OP. But even here we could be stuck in no mans land with the coldest air to the East.

GFS 6z ensembles aren't that bad

Until the UKMO joins the support i would keep my hopes down, and certainly not say cold is nailed.

Blocking looks to set up somewhere, going by the AO ensembles, strato warming etc.. Whether its in place to benefit us, remains to be seen

Yesterdays

http://www.cpc.noaa....ndex_ensm.shtml

http://www.cpc.noaa....a/nao.sprd2.gif

http://strat-www.met...t=temps&alert=1

Edited January 30, 2010 by mark bayley

[Weather-history]

Well the London 0z ECM ensembles are out

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

[SnowBallz]

Well the London 0z ECM ensembles are out

http://www.meteogrou...e_forecast.html

Nothing spectacular about them at all. Am I surpised? Nope.

[Iceberg]

ECM EPS 00Z are fantastic Mr Data. Best I've seen for a while. Given me a lot more confidence tbh.

[TEITS]

Yesterday 8th Feb was sounded out as being 'the day' to look out for, in respect of this Easterly verifying. You watch, 8th Feb will come and 8th Feb will pass...and yet there will still be people looking at charts, saying that the Easterly is a week away.

Have you even looked at the 06Z??

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Sorry but it does annoy me when members make inaccurate comments.

Personally its very simple for me. If the UKMO trends the same with agreement from the ECM then its game over. However if the reverse is true then its game on. Also if the 12Z GFS trends exactly the same as the 06Z then I feel this increases the chances of the UKMO backing away.

Just seen your comment about the ECM ensembles. Are you joking with that comment. What do you expect a mean of -10C in London.

Aren't you the same person who moaned that the last cold spell would be dry and accused members of being misleading.

Edited January 30, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Tom D]

The only REAL consistent trend I've seen over the last few days, is how this Easterly remains within FI - and it never ever gets any closer than a week away, even though time is progressing. Now what does THAT say to you? To me, it says that there just isn't enough there for the Easterly to develop, and that's why - when med-term resolution starts kicking it - this vaunted Easterly is kicked out as being the ludicrous idea that it always ever was.

Yesterday 8th Feb was sounded out as being 'the day' to look out for, in respect of this Easterly verifying. You watch, 8th Feb will come and 8th Feb will pass...and yet there will still be people looking at charts, saying that the Easterly is a week away.

Personally, I think we're going to remain in a 'much of a muchness' pattern, with nothing eventful at all really; won't be too cold, and it won't be too mild either - which some might argue is classic end of winter weather. We then crash into spring and watch the evolution take place. That's how I see it. Granted it's not as exciting as wrist-slitting over an Easterly which is never going to arrive - but at least am aware of this fact right here, right now.

I'd like to politely disagree

It has got closer, there are some GFS ensembles with an easterly come 144, but whilst there is disagreement with the ECM and UKMO, it is not nailed or even nearly certain.

With such a huge block over northern Europe still forecasted to arise, and with some of the things others have pointed out (negative AO, southerly jet and perhaps most importantly what has happened in the past) there is still a chance we could have an easterly, be in a battle ground situation or (worse case scenario) have the mild SWs the UKMO predicts.

I know we've all been tempted and amazed by the GFS in FI over recent days, which is somewhat unprofessional given how poor the GFS is after 180. But the trend was there 4/5 days ago and it's starting to move into a reliable timeframe (96-144). I'm going to say again that I don't think we'll be too sure on the most likely outcome for mid-late next week until late Sunday.

Don't lose faith in 8th February!

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[Duane S.]

The only REAL consistent trend I've seen over the last few days, is how this Easterly remains within FI - and it never ever gets any closer than a week away, even though time is progressing. Now what does THAT say to you? To me, it says that there just isn't enough there for the Easterly to develop, and that's why - when med-term resolution starts kicking it - this vaunted Easterly is kicked out as being the ludicrous idea that it always ever was.

Yesterday 8th Feb was sounded out as being 'the day' to look out for, in respect of this Easterly verifying. You watch, 8th Feb will come and 8th Feb will pass...and yet there will still be people looking at charts, saying that the Easterly is a week away.

Personally, I think we're going to remain in a 'much of a muchness' pattern, with nothing eventful at all really; won't be too cold, and it won't be too mild either - which some might argue is classic end of winter weather. We then crash into spring and watch the evolution take place. That's how I see it. Granted it's not as exciting as wrist-slitting over an Easterly which is never going to arrive - but at least am aware of this fact right here, right now.

With respect, there is nothing 'ludicrous' about the 'vaunted Easterly' It is not constantly being put back as quite a few are saying, it is now in doubt (big difference) due to various conflicting signals.

You could well end up being right (not a bad shout as 19 out of 20 potential Easterlies probably don't materialise) but it will not be because we didn't have a good chance of getting it this time around, because we still do.

If we can get a negative tilt to the trough to our West then in all probability the floodgates will open up from the East. If however we don't then it is going to be a whole load more difficult and by the time the energy sorts itself out in our favour the window of opportunity may well have passed.

[karyo]

I am not pleased with this morning's output! A definate shift towards the UKMO scenario by the ECM operational and the GFS ensembles: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

I think the gfs hasn't picked a signal for increased Atlantic energy and continues to show cold outputs.

I am expecting this signal to be picked by all models by the end of today!

Karyo

[snowblizzard]

I've been watching the models for the past 2-3 years on NW and can't remember a period where there's been so much uncertaintly and chopping & changing in the output! It's certainly been a different winter this time around. However, I really can't understand why we bother looking at any charts beyond +96hrs because they rarely verify! Some of the posts yesterday showing blinding Easterly flows and 510's over the entire UK were just out of this world - literally! They raise expectations to the point of frenzy and then the very next morning everything goes pear-shaped and people are totally gutted and depressed. Why?

[Weather-history]

Not only are the models all over the place but so are members' analyses of the models!

One member is unimpressed by the London ECM ensembles, another says they are fantastic.

[Duane S.]

Well the London 0z ECM ensembles are out

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

Very impressive!

Do you think one day, just one day, we will just breeze along to the perfect Easterly with no hitches or doubts along the way!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I am not pleased with this morning's output! A definate shift towards the UKMO scenario by the ECM operational and the GFS ensembles: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

I think the gfs hasn't picked a signal for increased Atlantic energy and continues to show cold outputs.

I am expecting this signal to be picked by all models by the end of today!

Karyo

I agree karyo.

I think its worth noting no matter what ecm gfs gem and the kitchen sink show,if ukmo is not on board then forget it.

We had this in 2005,exactly the same thing,every model was going for a big Easterly but the ukmo said no and guess what happened.I feel there is a lot of dressing up of the models this morning when most seasoned observers know pretty much where this is going.

My confidence in an easterly has gone down to about 10%,and thats being generous.