Model Output Discussion:

[DAVID SNOW]

I think you mean 'teits' :o

I think they know that.

TITIS, :o

Naughty boy :blink:

[TEITS]

You need to follow your own advice then.

Stop posting about members, discuss models instead. I'm sure you have some spare time for that.

No need as I always discuss the models.

Clear trend in the SLP mean.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100130/06/prmslCambridgeshire.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100130/06/prmslReyjavic.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100130/06/prmslOslo.png

P.S As im housebound due to my disabilities I do have plenty of spare time. I shall no longer reply to you as its clear what your motives are for posting. Simply a wind up merchant who doesn't have a life!

[Sawel]

Snowballz is not Jemtom.

Anyway, the key is for me is that we see heights build in Svalbard, the UKMO simply doesn't do this and we end up with the jet powering thru and a poorly aligned block to the NE. The only way that is going is to a mild outcome.

Obviously the METO are not going with their own model at the moment, hopefully things will be clearer after the 12zs but something has to give very soon.

Sorry Ian, it's blatantly obvious that SnowBallz is Jemtom.

Here's the latest verification stats at +120 hrs

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz5.gif

and +144 hrs

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz6.gif

Apparently the ECM and UKMO have had very recent upgrades.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sorry Ian, it's blatantly obvious that SnowBallz is Jemtom.

Here's the latest verification stats at +120 hrs

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz5.gif

and +144 hrs

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz6.gif

Apparently the ECM and UKMO have had very recent upgrades.

way off topic its going, but I thought Jemtom was Worzel? snowBalls is from a different area

[Optimus Prime]

Sorry Ian, it's blatantly obvious that SnowBallz is Jemtom.

Sorry but it's also blatently obvious that hopecasting scenarios that never happen are what drive many people away from these discussions. Better off having a chat in the lounge at times as you get spear headed at any opportunity when people try and inject some realism into the discussion.

It really does look quite obvious to me. We will get close to an easterly but as usual (and as per normal British climate) the continent gets very cold while we stay more maritime.

If any sort of decent 'easterly' gets within the 96 hour timeframe then it's worth discussing. Plenty to discuss with the models without looking for dream scenarios of 1991 or whatever.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[SnowBallz]

No need as I always discuss the models.

Clear trend in the SLP mean.

http://charts.netwea...bridgeshire.png

http://charts.netwea...mslReyjavic.png

http://charts.netwea...6/prmslOslo.png

P.S As im housebound due to my disabilities I do have plenty of spare time. I shall no longer reply to you as its clear what your motives are for posting. Simply a wind up merchant who doesn't have a life!

Stop trying to make a martyr of yourself. You were the one who chose to have a go at me - it wasn't me.

[sandstorm2]

Out of all the models the GFS and possibly the GEM are the ones that have stuck to their guns regarding the easterly, at what point do we start deciding who is right and who is wrong?

Certainly the GFS is bringing it into the reliable timeframe with quite a potent easterly flow developing by +120/144, the GEM is holding it back a bit to +216. The ECMWF gets us into a colder flow by the end of its run.

Have no idea what the outcome will be but have a hunch the GFS with one or two tweaks is going to be right.

Just a note to TEITS, keep doing what you do best and that is analyzing the models, you might be right or wrong but a lot of people on here look forward to reading your posts.

SS2

[thegreat316]

Mods this is turning into a circus, please delete this and other off topic posts:help:

btw mods you usually do a great job, keep it up :blink:

[Optimus Prime]

Out of all the models the GFS and possibly the GEM are the ones that have stuck to their guns regarding the easterly,

The GEM hasn't performed all to well lately after some good work over the last few months.

I fully suspect given the NAO and AO position high pressure will build over Northern Russia injecting some cold air into eastern and central Europe. Perhaps as GP has said indications of this pulling west later in February.

By that stage the cold would have lost intensity and we'll be left with a cold and wintry scenario rather then very cold and snowy.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Stop trying to make a martyr of yourself. You were the one who chose to have a go at me - it wasn't me.

im sorry but that is a most uneccessary post and i have to say that sort of comment about someone with disabilities is nasty.

we can all have out opinions and fall outs but ive never seen anything nasty until now.

[NorthantsSnow]

Well I'm afraid until we have support from the UKMO an easterly remains a very unlikely option. (about 20-25% chance)

I was hoping this would be resolved today but that is not the case. Stark differences begin as early as +96, by +144 the two models are miles apart.

The ECM is sort of in between I suppose with a less snowy evolution overall due to higher pressure over the UK but perhaps something nicer might evolve further down the line. It's just a lot slower to get there. Incidentally the ECM is very similar to the GEM so this certainly adds weight to that particular outcome.

Is a bit of unity at 12z too much to ask for? Knowing how stubborn these models can be, probably, but we can hope.

A bit of unity on this thread would be welcomed as well.

Edited January 30, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[liltbrockie]

im sorry but that is a most uneccessary post and i have to say that sort of comment about someone with disabilities is nasty.

we can all have out opinions and fall outs but ive never seen anything nasty until now.

lol what?

What has him having a disability got to do with it?

[Alex95]

im sorry but that is a most uneccessary post and i have to say that sort of comment about someone with disabilities is nasty.

we can all have out opinions and fall outs but ive never seen anything nasty until now.

I think the mods need to delete all those off topic posts, its getting ridiculous, and like you said some of these posts are getting quite abusive

Edited January 30, 2010 by alza

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

lol what?

What has him having a disability got to do with it?

she said he was trying to make himself look like a martyr???

Anyway hopefully a better ukmo run this evening.

[Eugene]

Well all forecasters professional and amateur who i've seen today releasing their forecasts for the week ahead are going for a pretty cold week and easterly winds pushing west later in the week into the weekend, to be honest i don't blame them for going that way, i mean when was the last persistently mild and wet week, many many moons ago.

[Bottesford]

I'm closing this thread as it seems no one can stick to discussing the models without attacking other members personally.

We'll start a new one shortly once you've all calmed down.