Model Output Discussion:

[Southender]

Blo*dy hell, the eastern side of the country would be plastered with snow here

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

Yep and parts of the Mids too.

Snow showers right from Sunday morn until well into FI land.

Many, many inches of snow for E parts if it verified. Especially near the coasts, right from Scotland down to Kent.

Temps struggling to get above freezing for most. Especially with any snow cover.

What a corker of a run.

Edited February 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[cooling climate]

According to this run there is the threat of strong convection (heavy snow ) from Tuesday

through until end of Friday for Scotland, NE and eastern England, the Midlands, east Anglia,

eastern parts of central southern England and the southeast.

[nick sussex]

What a great GFS run, and even I get some snow! Very relieved to see the trend continued, I think I've become ultra cautious given the last week.

In terms of how long the cold could last well it really depends on how long the Omega block can hold on depending on upstream events,overall though just great to see this output.

[Rollo]

I am still not 100% convinced having taken all the previous days ups and downs into consideration, but things are looking rosy,it would be terrible it all went t*ts up now. My gut feeling is that this will be the snowiest spell of the winter (albeit shorter)in my neck of the woods

[Weathizard]

According to this run there is the threat of strong convection (heavy snow ) from Tuesday

through until end of Friday for Scotland, NE and eastern England, the Midlands, east Anglia,

eastern parts of central southern England and the southeast.

Hope so

Edited February 4, 2010 by Weathizard

[Southender]

FI not brilliant. But let's not concern ourselves with that at the moment.

A good 7 day cold spell, could be upon us. Will it last longer, i'm not so sure. As mentioned above the 6z has the atlantic back in by 16th Feb. But we know how progressive it can be and that is way, way out in cuckoo land.

Quell that excitement for another 24hrs at least though..

Edited February 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Lewis]

Well an excellent run for E parts in particular E Midlands/E Anglia/Lincs. Im sure those who benefit from a thames streamer will be hoping for a ENE/E,ly rather than a NE,ly. Still these details will continue changing until +0.

Don't forget Yorkshire!

Just read through post's and it's always, SE, EA, E Midlands.. I wonder why TEITS?? IMBY post's or what

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Excellent GFS 06z.

The most important thing of all this morning is that the trend remains the friend.

Steady as she goes first, and then details can be discussed by the weekend

[TEITS]

Don't forget Yorkshire!

Just read through post's and it's always, SE, EA, E Midlands.. I wonder why TEITS?? IMBY post's or what

I did say E parts and I never even mentioned the SE. Besides pointless looking into too much detail at the moment.

[Lewis]

I did say E parts and I never even mentioned the SE. Besides pointless looking into too much detail at the moment.

True, but you do lol.

Just to clarify, looking at this mornings 06z, Yorkshire/Lincs, NE England right through central N England, also N wales and the chesire gap, are the places in line for a battering. EA and the SE will certainly get showers.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Eugene]

Don't forget Yorkshire!

Just read through post's and it's always, SE, EA, E Midlands.. I wonder why TEITS?? IMBY post's or what

lol i said eastern side of the country that could mean anywhere from the extreme southeast of england to the far northeast scotland hardly IMBY at all

[cooling climate]

Don't forget Yorkshire!

Just read through post's and it's always, SE, EA, E Midlands.. I wonder why TEITS?? IMBY post's or what

If the 06z is anywhere near the mark I should imagine Yorkshire would get plastered, it always has

done in the past in these types of synoptics.

[John London]

Yep and parts of the Mids too.

Snow showers right from Sunday morn until well into FI land.

Many, many inches of snow for E parts if it verified. Especially near the coasts, right from Scotland down to Kent.

Temps struggling to get above freezing for most. Especially with any snow cover.

What a corker of a run.

I'm driving up from Suffolk to Newcastle and back on Sunday, the Met Office forecast cloudy and 5c, and you're forecasting snow. What to do?

[Snow Leopard]

".....the trend remains the friend."

Love that, not seen it before.

[chapmanraven]

I'm driving up from Suffolk to Newcastle and back on Sunday, the Met Office forecast cloudy and 5c, and you're forecasting snow. What to do?

By Satutrday night you should know if you need to pack a shovel

Fingers crossed the models are more consistent and agree before then to give a better idea.

Safe Journey John

[Rollo]

I'm driving up from Suffolk to Newcastle and back on Sunday, the Met Office forecast cloudy and 5c, and you're forecasting snow. What to do?

At the moment it looks that you will be OK on Sunday-it should be gradually turning colder at that stage but I would think any snow would be at higher levels and light.

[MR EXTREMES]

The ECM and GFS show good agreement on the upstream pattern and both have Omega blocks in the Atlantic!

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

oh my omega block thats jh area lol thats how the last cold setup happened.

as for the charts well im happy to wake to this and im no happy with the gem and nogaps to be honest because it dont suit us coldies i reckon that both them models are unrealistic lol.

[D KARLSON]

I did say E parts and I never even mentioned the SE. Besides pointless looking into too much detail at the moment.

In deed there still will be hiccups along the wat as this very cold pool of air wobbles its way back across the north sea and as it does so the intense cold returns to eastern germany and eventually western europe.

At this moment i would say 70% chance of the cold reurning and this looks likely to rise tonight with the new models as they latch on to the new pattern change and if some of this air is sourced from scandinavia as progged, its likely to be colder than usual; why? well if you take a look at the baltic sea ice service site , you will see that both the gulf of finland and gulf of bothnia are now entirely frozen over and the eastern balic has started to freeze over too .last time this happened was 1987 so were talking serious cold here.

This will have to be factored in to any cold air thats arrives at our shores after modification certainly some very snowy weather is a possibility and low minima on the western side of britain of if the models verify

[NorthernRab]

Well an excellent run for E parts in particular E Midlands/E Anglia/Lincs. Im sure those who benefit from a thames streamer will be hoping for a ENE/E,ly rather than a NE,ly. Still these details will continue changing until +0.

And Fife, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Invernesshire, Caithness, Orkney and East Yorks etc.

Excellent as you're input is TEITS, it would be great if sometimes members such as yourself would give parts away from the SE of England a bit of a mention as proper discussion on such areas can be few and far between outwith the regional threads.

[MR EXTREMES]

According to this run there is the threat of strong convection (heavy snow ) from Tuesday

through until end of Friday for Scotland, NE and eastern England, the Midlands, east Anglia,

eastern parts of central southern England and the southeast.

yes although east is always best in thease setups you cant pinpoint 100%.

look at febuary 2008 easterly that effected the east south even as far as dorset and swest country.

i always say cold first then wait and see.

[Wayneywoo]

Please lets not let this thread deteriorate as we all start picking holes in each others posts.

If you don't like what has been posted, just ignore it!! Otherwise a whole discussion is started with opinions thrown left right and centre and then the model discussion takes second place.

Makes for good reading if posts are on topic!

edit: No quotes or agreements necessary. Let's just try and keep the thread on topic.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Wayneywoo

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Love that, not seen it before.

I pinched it from someone else on here ages ago But thanks anyway!

In terms of the subject of detail - it is simply too early to make any comment as the models still have slightly different evolutions to roughly the same end product. The most important thing is that the mild wet and windy south westerlies are sent packing first and foremost, then it gets cold, and then we can look at the snow potential.

And when, all being well, that time comes, all the IMBY stuff will be conducted on the regional threads *she says hopefully*

[londonsnow]

I am still not 100% convinced having taken all the previous days ups and downs into consideration, but things are looking rosy,it would be terrible it all went t*ts up now. My gut feeling is that this will be the snowiest spell of the winter (albeit shorter)in my neck of the woods

i'm with you on the lack of confidence. i think if the 12z's continue with the theme we can start to relax. as for snow, well if all goes to plan then it will be the snowiest spell this winter for many in the east. even typing that makes me feel i'm jinxing things!!

[nick sussex]

oh my omega block thats jh area lol thats how the last cold setup happened.

as for the charts well im happy to wake to this and im no happy with the gem and nogaps to be honest because it dont suit us coldies i reckon that both them models are unrealistic lol.

The GEM was an outlier and NOAA don't include that in their outlook, as for the NOGAPS well its still not keen but its generally cannon fodder anyway and the main thing is that the ECM/GFS and UKMO are consistent.

[Archie_Lewis]

Better looking agreement now from the charts.

However I will not be confident until Saturday afternoon.

There is absolutely no point looking at snow detail/potential now, lets get the cold here first!

I know members are just predicting/having fun on where it will snow ... But this has no relevance really does it? Snow forecasts will change 4hrs beforehand.

Whereas TREND does have relevance.... And it seems the TREND is there for a VERY COLD AND SNOWY week next week