Model Output Discussion:

[cowdog]

Would you mind giving me a link mate?

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn541.png

That is the most direct way. 54 is the latest it is up to.

[Optimus Prime]

Arghh it's already going wrong at 60 hours. Images aren't loading.

[Ben_Cambs]

I think if this Easterly comes off a setup like 11-18th March 2006 seems possible, obviously it would be much much colder than then being much earlier in the year but it seems a rather realistic setup.

The 18z for Friday has added an extra low suddenly, could potentially slow the process down somewhat?

I looked at that, but really no change from 12z when I looked at the next chart I think anyway. Looked at it again and there is no change so far from 12z

Edited February 3, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Cloud 10]

The 18z at +54hrs.

A couple of lows in the shape of a snowman.

A sign of things to come perhaps.

[Bobby]

Oh dear, it's all going horribly wrong, big downgrades at T+72..

... only joking.

Looks pretty good actually so far.

[cold snap]

UKMO FAX MONDAY

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

eyes on 18Z now

[cowdog]

Really don't like the look of 72. The cold is to far away.

Just checked the temps and they are 4+ degrees higher than the 12z.

Edited February 3, 2010 by cowdog

[Ben_Cambs]

Really don't like the look of 72.

If you are looking at the yellows on the Wetterzentrale Charts, no need to worry about them. They will be greens by T+114. Sunday looking fairly average for most places

Edited February 3, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Optimus Prime]

Really don't like the look of 72.

Me neither. Something strange about that number.

[conor123]

Everything slightly further West on the 18z so far with more of a Continental Flow meaning more hope for getting some sunshine this weekend instead of the gloom on the 12z with pleasant daytime temperatures and frosty nights.

High over Greenland is 10mb stronger at 102hrs with a stronger Blast of Cold air coming from the Arctic.

[Bolton67]

T+96

[swfc]

Can already see a great run coming up here.shortwave heading away,waa looking good and better ridging to the ne.

[Ben_Cambs]

Im guessing as a newby, tomorrows runs then are THE ONES.

I agree with that, IF the runs are consistent throughout the night, tomorrow and if by the end of the 12z's tomorrow evening the models all agree with eachother about the Easterly/North Easterly, then we are a lot closer to the Easterly and the confidence in the colder weather increases

[Geordiesnow]

Looks okay to me so far, it has that shortwave to the east of Iceland though which could still spoil things though. Also the GFS is the best at picking these things up but can overdo these, don't this will the case this time though as the UKMO has also got shortwave development in the same place.

[bluearmy]

some strange posts on here. one of the advathages that ths thread has over the TWO one is that we dont generally get load of one liners one here and running commentaries on every frame - better /worse/same/not same/different/slightly different etc etc.

pleaseasease lets not go down this route. it sort of trashes the thread with nothing that adds anything to the discussion.

for the record, the 18z is consistent to T96 with the 12z and UKMO 12z.

[londonsnow]

that feature over lapland/north norway remains a pain.

[Optimus Prime]

Everything slightly further West on the 18z so far with more of a Continental Flow meaning more hope for getting some sunshine this weekend instead of the gloom on the 12z with pleasant daytime temperatures and frosty nights.

High over Greenland is 10mb stronger at 102hrs with a stronger Blast of Cold air coming from the Arctic.

Much less power in the JET by the looks of things. Low loosing momentum with High gaining momentum from the east. Looks like that low to the NE may come rushing out of the Arctic pan anytime soon.

[03jtrickey]

Looking good to me so far out to +102.

Everything a tad further west, by about 75 miles.

Cold air slightly further south by +102 than on the 12Z, around the Scandinavian low.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100203/18/102/h850t850eu.png

[SMU]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-108.png?18

This is where is STARTS- day 4 & a bit takes us the early hours of Monday Morning- with the first finger of NE flow hitting NE scotland, With the chance of undercutting developing over the UK, very much like charts of yesteryear ( feb 96)

For those that have been around long enough these scenarios rarely varify, however to have one developing at 96 is quite exciting--

SHOULD be a great run- lets see how things pan out-

S

UKMO pick of the runs so far today at 144- can it be topped-

[swfc]

could do with some undercutting at 132 hours.?????

[Cloud 10]

ecm 12z 120hrs>> gfs 18z 120hrs>>

Very good agreement at +120 between ecm and gfs.

Havn't been able to say that very often over the last week!

[Bobby]

[snowdrifter]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-108.png?18

This is where is STARTS- day 4 & a bit takes us the early hours of Monday Morning- with the first finger of NE flow hitting NE scotland, With the chance of undercutting developing over the UK, very much like charts of yesteryear ( feb 96)

6th Feb '96

I'd be happy if things panned out like that again...

[Optimus Prime]

Some big similarities between this and the January 2003 cold spell;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00120030106.gif

Got some reasonably good snowfalls out of that.

[cold snap]

18Z to me looks very good to me a slight upgrade on there previous run.

Goes nicely with this met fax

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

Edited February 3, 2010 by cold snap