Model Output Discussion:

[Snowyowl9]

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSS cmon-

Channel low of EPIC proportions----- Please varify im on holiday from Sat for 10 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!

S

How about this for an aniversary,same setup same date uncanny or what. :blush:

[SnowBallz]

Not a bad blast from the ECM I'd say...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not a bad blast from the ECM I'd say...

thats 00Z

[swfc]

poor ecm at 240 hrs. :blush:

[londonsnow]

i'm still not convinced. if this set up remains at 12z tomorrow, with full agreement twixt models then i may pour a glass of wine. actually i may pour one now in anticipation

[swfc]

thats 00Z

nope <_< <_< <_<

[Geordiesnow]

thats 00Z

Its the 12Z Mark, with the flow toppling with a cold high in place. Certainly not a bad end to a stonking cold run.

Lets just hope the 18Z keep us cold lovers happy and have no slip ups but that probably is wishful thinking.

[sandstorm2]

thats 00Z

SnoowBallz is correct that is the ECM 1200 at 240.

SS2

[Cloud 10]

Posted by Ian Fergusson this morning:

Posted Today, 08:50

Judging by the latest EC ENS, the midday EC OP output could make for very interesting viewing..... more flip-flopping than a roach on a canal bank of late, but interestingly the SIG PPN signal now enhanced too along with the brrrrr factor .

Watch this space.....

A pretty good description of the 12z ecm.

[nick sussex]

What a relief to see some sort of general agreement on the pattern. From a purely IMBY perspective my vote goes to the ECM as its latter stages would mean I could ski down to the valley without having to go to the nearby ski resorts!

Really I don't think anyone could have foreseen the changes of the last few days unless they were Mystic Meg! Of course it hasn't happened yet and theres still the early shortwave to overcome and then the nerve shredding 96hrs to 120hrs timeframe. I maybe viewing future output from behind the sofa!

[January Snowstorm]

The most amazing thing in all this is GP called this last night before ANY of the models showed anything remotely cold.

His accuracy in 'long range' forecasting is proving exceptional!

At last agreement across the board, UKMO proving the model to follow right now

[TEITS]

The key period for me is between +48/+72.

The LP becomes detached from the Atlantic trough and tracks SE (remember my drawings!).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm601.gif

As this happens we then see blocking building from the N/E. Also keep an eye on the SW near Lapland.

What then happens at +144 is we see the SW near Lapland drift S. This brings a pool of cold air S with uppers around -16C. At the same time we see the atlantic trough weaken and due to the blocking to the NE LP systems only have one place to go and thats underneath the block. The UKMO is slightly different in this respect because the Atlantic LP is further N than the ECM.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Incredible change in the space of 24hrs.

Edited February 3, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Skyhi]

I am hoping, given the impressive charts so far, that we get more of the same in agreement .......otherwise I fear my sanity is most certainly going to fail me!!

[sandstorm2]

Well we now have the three big models agreeing that next week is going to be cold, whether there is going to be snow is another problem, think thats the first time for a while that they have agreed, still a way off yet.

SS2

[Alex95]

SnoowBallz is correct that is the ECM 1200 at 240.

SS2

That image has changed, when it was first posted it was still the 00z. It now shows the 12z.

[yamkin]

Confidence is higher now because the key switch (the undercut) is at just +72 or earlier, very rarely are the models wrong at this range. Earler, when there was all the flipping about, that key moment was much further out.

Still could go wrong though, it's not in the bag yet... but confidence is quite high now I think.

Good post Barb. In my previous post I highlighted the 12Z model agreement at 66h which is also a confidence booster <_<

[Eugene]

The most amazing thing in all this is GP called this last night before ANY of the models showed anything remotely cold.

His accuracy in 'long range' forecasting is proving exceptional!

At last agreement across the board, UKMO proving the model to follow right now

Last time i checked he was going for a mild february and people were congratulating him over it, i guess he changed his mind then.

[snowray]

poor ecm at 240 hrs. <_< <_<

:lol: Well after s :lol: snow showers :lol: on Monday, merging to heavy snow on Tues, Weds, then more Snow and blizzards Friday wy might want a rest from it all on Saturday. But look out, these's more there to the East waiting to pop over, so its only going to be one day off! <_<

[Skyhi]

THE EYE IN THE SKY....when you say 'underneath the block', do you mean undercutting?, as I believe this is fairly rare. Thank you for your very imformative postings, it makes it easier to understand for newbies like me.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Right, the models now do have the evolution nailed.

What do we have? Pressure build from the NW, ridging down and the Atlantic negaitvely tilted as the jet goes SOUTH. It was all about looking NW and was always all about the jet digging south. The coldest period 9-13 Feb. Snow for SE and E areas come Sun/Mon. We will see LPs move W to E along N France or the channel.

This is solar driven and a pattern I have been advocating since January. I have been and remain confident that there will be no more backtracking as the models have picked up on the solar driven signal. By mid Feb the block will sink and a LP will move in on NW to SE axis.

Never in doubt......not. <_<

ECM is quite beautiful......................and correct.

BFTP

[snowray]

SnoowBallz is correct that is the ECM 1200 at 240.

SS2

Erm, nope, this is the T240 chart.

[nick sussex]

Last time i checked he was going for a mild february and people were congratulating him over it, i guess he changed his mind then.

No he originally said earlier in the winter that February maybe mild but it was fluid, his LRF has been excellent and the Met Office should employ him as hes done a superb job.

When you see how many teleconnections he has to juggle then you realize how excellent his forecasting is, we're very lucky to have him at net weather.

[londonsnow]

Right, the models now do have the evolution nailed.

What do we have? Pressure build from the NW, ridging down and the Atlantic negaitvely tilted as the jet goes SOUTH. It was all about looking NW and was always all about the jet digging south. The coldest period 9-13 Feb. Snow for SE and E areas come Sun/Mon. We will see LPs move W to E along N France or the channel.

This is solar driven and a pattern I have been advocating since January. I have been and remain confident that there will be no more backtracking as the models have picked up on the solar driven signal. By mid Feb the block will sink and a LP will move in on NW to SE axis.

Never in doubt......not. <_<

ECM is quite beautiful......................and correct.

BFTP

good summary bftp. now, when will the beeb dare to suggest a return to cold. their current headline is for a milder weekend. so much uncertainty that i guess they'll wait as long as possible

[wee]

Dont want to get to excited just yet as have been dissapointed so much recently but YIPPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[snowdrifter]

I don't want to put a jinx on it but this is the first time the GFS/UKMO/ECM all roughly agree on an E,ly.

Was thinking the same - time to post this again maybe? (was on the 'moods' thread last time)

'tis model-related mods...!