Model Output Discussion:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

For non E Anglia/SE members it should be pointed out that the ECM is only showing the potential for snow for a small portion of the country !

yes, what I thought, much prefer gfs, ecm only snowy for SW, S and SE

[sandstorm2]

Erm, nope, this is the T240 chart.

Yes that is the chart that she posted the ECM at T240.

SS2

[SnowBallz]

Erm, nope, this is the T240 chart.

Which is the same as the one I posted.

You need to make sure you don't cache images, as that hinders your browser from displaying the most recent data. Those uncached would've seen the updated 12z, whereas you saw the out-dated 0z.

[Polar Continental]

Well the ECM starts cold and ends bitter, showing what could be a snow blitz in between, going by that, at T240 most of the country would be buried in meter of snow, then a freeze up to follow as high pressure settles over the country.

All the charts tonight are in some kind of agreement of an easterly, the first time I think, since the saga started some 10 days ago. It seems there was always one model that couldn’t agree, so fingers crossed this is the real thing.

[TEITS]

My favourite chart this evening is probably this.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Recently there has been much discussion about a W based NAO. What this roughly means is a block W of Greenland which to be honest is very little use to us. However look at the ECM +144 and you have extensive N blocking from Siberia to Canada.

Now obviously its early to talk about details but based on the operationals/ensembles there could be two different types of E,lys on offer.

1. Convective type E,ly which is what the UKMO suggests and also some of the GEFS control runs.

2. LP tracking to our S. Now with this comes an element of luck. You want the LP to be far enough N to bring the snow but you don't want the LP too far N so your on the wrong side. Ideally you need to be just N of the centre of the LP. So the track of the LP that I would like to see wouldn't be ideal for members such as Tamara, Steve M. Having said this with such a synoptic pattern others would still see convective snowfall as the LP clears E, ECM +192 a good example.

Personally im not that bothered at this stage. As long as the models continue with the trend from the E then im a happy bunny.

[cooling climate]

The most amazing thing in all this is GP called this last night before ANY of the models showed anything remotely cold.

His accuracy in 'long range' forecasting is proving exceptional!

At last agreement across the board, UKMO proving the model to follow right now

There are a few of us that have been calling this from 10-12 days ago or longer even.

The important part though is seeing this verify so that all winter weather lovers can

enjoy it.

If the ECM verifies this could well be the coldest spell of the winter for many areas and

for some the snowiest.

[johnholmes]

Eugene?

Is this kind of niggle really called for-for heaven sake give credit where its due or do you not read his posts in the technical thread as well as in the model thread to say nothing of a quite first class lrf for the winter so far?

Last time i checked he was going for a mild february and people were congratulating him over it, i guess he changed his mind then.

[Alex95]

For non E Anglia/SE members it should be pointed out that the ECM is only showing the potential for snow for a small portion of the country !

Actually these are patterns which bring large dumpings of snow to all eastern areas, from E Scotland right down to Kent. Then if any channel lows did show up many other Southern areas would get snow. Even in the Northwest there is plenty of POTENTIAL.

Edited February 3, 2010 by alza

[MR EXTREMES]

For non E Anglia/SE members it should be pointed out that the ECM is only showing the potential for snow for a small portion of the country !

to be fair i dont think anyone can say where or even when snow will fall from this point.

lets get the cold first worry about the rest later im getting a addiction to prozac now lol.

and the other thing is there is a possibility that lows could zip through the channel this is something that would make my winter complete but i cant say 100% that will happen infact no one can.

not even the mighty gp who i can honestly say amongst all the confusion explained everything spot on.

still i must hold my breath and wait.

[The PIT]

Nothing is nailed we should all know that by now.

ECM has gone back too what it showed a few days ago but this flipping doesn't seem to get the same attention as the gfs.

The evolution is just outside the reliable time frame but so close (The failed beasts from the east did the same) it may actually come off.

[nick sussex]

yes, what I thought, much prefer gfs, ecm only snowy for SW, S and SE

Thats what people said about the last cold spell and many areas got snow, the ECM is the safer evolution, the GFS and UKMO are too risky and have more chance of going wrong. In these situations we don't have the luxury of picking a preferred evolution but given the choice the ECM has more margin for error, look at the GFS and UKMO evolutions carefully to see why they're fraught with high risk.

[LomondSnowstorm]

For non E Anglia/SE members it should be pointed out that the ECM is only showing the potential for snow for a small portion of the country !

Hmm, not sure about that, with a ENE/easterly flow and uppers this low, surely eastern Scotland would take a pasting! http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010020312/NSea_2010020312_thgt850_168.png

[snowray]

Yes that is the chart that she posted the ECM at T240.

SS2

Not initially she didn't, was the 00z.

Oh well, no big deal.

[weather eater]

I don't think anyone is backslapping really. Just some understandable relief at the model outcomes this evening.

Everyone knows tomorrow is another day and the consistancy has to be maintained - so on that basis I think people can be forgiven for having 'a happy hour' after the chopping and changing from one thing to another that has, as we know, driven some nuts!

Hi Tamara, yes some excellent output this evening, but I might save my happy hour, recent events have left me suspicious and we need to keep in mind that theres still likely to be plenty of changes over the next few days even allowing that we keep an easterly pattern. In terms of backslapping I just mean we would do better to keep it on hold while we wait for further verification.

Edited February 3, 2010 by weather eater

[TEITS]

Eugene?

Is this kind of niggle really called for-for heaven sake give credit where its due or do you not read his posts in the technical thread as well as in the model thread to say nothing of a quite first class lrf for the winter so far?

Last time i checked he was going for a mild february and people were congratulating him over it, i guess he changed his mind then.

I think Eugene is referring to your own post John from last night!

I suspect Stewart that your original first class prediction for this winter so far may well end up correct for February as well?

The odd short cold spell but nothing prolonged as occurred in December and January I would suggest?

Maybe a coldish spring and early summer which would not be too popular I suspect apart from the usual cold lovers.

Personally its too early to be saying well done because after recent model performance my confidence is very low which is why im awaiting tomorrows runs. However I will give credit to others even if their posts aren't as technical as GPs. Worth taking this into account John and not be blinded by technical posts because sometimes basic methods prove reliable!

[nick sussex]

Eugene?

Is this kind of niggle really called for-for heaven sake give credit where its due or do you not read his posts in the technical thread as well as in the model thread to say nothing of a quite first class lrf for the winter so far?

Last time i checked he was going for a mild february and people were congratulating him over it, i guess he changed his mind then.

I totally agree people need to be a bit more appreciative of the hard work GP does on this site, do they have any idea how many teleconnections he deals with. When the Met Office offer him a job to lead their LRF team, only then will people realize what a loss he would be to this site, unless that is he can freelance and still be on here!

[Weathizard]

Yes, there would be possibilities for Eastern coastal areas, but it's not true (and this was proven in December) thst set-ups that show snowfall for the SE are somehow better for everybody else in the long term.

I hope your right anyway as I'm in East Sussex, good or bad place to be for possible snow?

[Frosty.]

It seems that most seem to think the ECM 12z will verify and already talking imby snow depths, a bit premature as the models could still do to us what they did on sunday morning if anyone can remember that nightmare. I would say there is reasonable agreement now that the atlantic milder weather will only succeed during the next 2 to 3 days before slowly being forced back south westwards but the level of confidence regarding depth of cold and duration is still low.

[January Snowstorm]

I totally agree people need to be a bit more appreciative of the hard work GP does on this site, do they have any idea how many teleconnections he deals with. When the Met Office offer him a job to lead their LRF team, only then will people realize what a loss he would be to this site, unless that is he can freelance and still be on here!

Yes agree 100%, anyway we better move on before another world war breaks out :lol:

[Frosty.]

It appears that most seem to think the ECM 12z will verify and already talking imby snow depths, a bit premature as the models could still do to us what they did on sunday morning if anyone can remember that nightmare. I would say there is reasonable agreement now that the atlantic milder weather will only succeed during the next 2 to 3 days before slowly being forced back south westwards but the level of confidence regarding depth of cold and duration is still low.

[snowray]

Actually these are patterns which bring large dumpings of snow to all eastern areas, from E Scotland right down to Kent. Then if any channel lows did show up many other Southern areas would get snow. Even in the Northwest there is plenty of POTENTIAL.

Indeed. Quite frankly, lets not worry too much about the detail at this stage, a direct hit could be anywhere from North to South, or slap bang in the middle!

[Richard Lake]

Evening,

Wow a great deal of interest tonight and I can't blame anyone for getting excited. First time all 3 have agreed on anything in how many weeks?

Of course the big question will we be looking at similar/better/worse charts 24 hours from now?

IF the big 3 are correct in holding that deep developing low pressure system in the western atlantic from a direct hit over the BI and send it SE and we do in fact see developing heights to our NE - it just goes to prove how stubborn the cold air over NW Europe is to shift.

By looking at the charts (GFS/ECM), if the above does happen then I would fully expect cold air to flood the UK as suggested in the 120-144 timeframe as the hard fight as already been won.

I hope that makes sense, still learning.

EDIT: And to top it all offer I have 3cms on the ground tonight, all I was expecting was rain! Not bad for a lowland coastal location.

Edited February 3, 2010 by rikki

[Yeti]

Well there's reasonable model agreement tonight on the future synoptic evolution which is obvious because people are starting to argue about where the snow is going to fall!! The truth is that the SE and EA will nearly always be the favoured spots for snow showers in these easterly setups, but as we know, snow would crop up in most places IF the charts were to verify, as fine detail is a long way from being modelled atm.

Let's hope things firm up in the right direction more and more, otherwise I think any backtracks to mild tomorrow will be too much for some members to cope with emotionally!

If this does turn out to be a notable easterly spell, this winter really will go down as one where luck has been very much on the side of the cold ramper, after years of misfortunes.

[chionomaniac]

I totally agree people need to be a bit more appreciative of the hard work GP does on this site, do they have any idea how many teleconnections he deals with. When the Met Office offer him a job to lead their LRF team, only then will people realize what a loss he would be to this site, unless that is he can freelance and still be on here!

Second this Nick. And whereas GP may not be right every time he is right more often than any of his competitors. Especially with the medium range forecasts - the 10 day plus. And with logical and well explained reasoning and reacting quickly to teleconnective pattern changes I think that NW and us are very lucky to have him.

[Bobby]

Crazy to start talking about snow depths and distribution when last night people were talking about flooding and Feb maximum temperature records possibly being broken. Don't even know the basic synoptic set up yet.

Anywhere could get a lot of snow from the runs tonight.

I agree GP has done very well.