Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

two weeks ago Saturday? I remember posting the that some tree branches had blown down and broke our Sky cable

Guess that was what caused the huge drifts I saw on the road up to St. Fergus? While obviously old, they were impressive; must have been up to 3 ft at times edging onto the carriageway.

That was one thing that lessened the impact of the Christmas/early jan spell; not much wind. Imagine my 50+ cm blowing around. The drifts would have cut roads completely, taking ages to dig out.

[snowy owl]

Sure did note the ice day- in fact it felt like the real feel temperature was much lower then the actual minimum! or was it just me?

[Mondy]

Sometimes, I think, the MO thread needs that injection of "humour" or "OT'ness" just to make it from being exclusively mundane and single-handedly selfish from all who post on there. It's a shame intended humour doesn't travel well across a forum, although I do understand the Mods job is a thankless one. Deletion of posts annoys the bull out of me, particularly when a depth of thought has gone into it. Sorry, just typing as I see it.

[snowy owl]

Guys and gals a special request - can you keep me some photos of the snowy spell (if it delivers) for when i return. from holiday.

I am really sad to be going at this interesting time but the sunshine calls and at least it looks like my flight out will be fine though! lol! No severe delays due to ice and snow on runway!

[LadyPakal]

Maybe a visible 'naughty step' is required - people on a short time out are listed at the top....

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION

Saw you post this on the model thread Shuggee. Not quite sure what you meant. Can you clarifty?

[LadyPakal]

Guys and gals a special request - can you keep me some photos of the snowy spell (if it delivers) for when i return. from holiday.

I am really sad to be going at this interesting time but the sunshine calls and at least it looks like my flight out will be fine though! lol! No severe delays due to ice and snow on runway!

I shall - assuming we get any! Have a good trip.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Guys and gals a special request - can you keep me some photos of the snowy spell (if it delivers) for when i return. from holiday.

I am really sad to be going at this interesting time but the sunshine calls and at least it looks like my flight out will be fine though! lol! No severe delays due to ice and snow on runway!

If I beat the picnic bench, there will be lots of photos for sure. No probs.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just in and had a look at the ECM. I don't like it! what do you bet that the high will topple and stall over Scotland giving us freezing cold but no snow. LS?

Let's be honest, the ECM 12Z is not as good as the other two models. Not bad, some showers probably but nothing like the other two models. The thread has gone a bit mad with SNIMBY (snow in my backyard), but of course we are going to get some runs where the flow is weaker. That's what happens with computer models!

The ECM did show a slacker flow than materialised in the last easterly, and with agreement between the GFS, GEM and UKMO for a stronger flow with the shortwave further north i'm honestly not too worried. To be fair though, when the threat of 14C heat came in about 3 days ago, looked almost nailed on according to old Ian Brown, we would've all taken this chart.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010020412/NSea_2010020412_thgt850_96.png

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/NSea/2010020412/NSea_2010020412_thgt850_144.png

Not warm, but the -10 uppers are bound for East Anglia along with the heavy snow, and that pesky -8 rule might just ruin our chances at times as well if the ECM is to be believed. The ECM, as I said earlier, is slightly different to the other models at 120 hours out

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m5.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.gif

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100204/12/t850control-120.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100204/12/prmslEast~Dunbartonshire.png

Note the set of ensembles for air pressure - the mean does not exceed 1010 mb after the 9th, so the sinking high option certainly looks further out than the ECM suggests.

Great charts though tonight in general - much better to be arguing about the snowiness of an easterly and whereabouts of said snow than whether there will be an easterly/ northeasterly!

LS

[Mondy]

Maybe a visible 'naughty step' is required - people on a short time out are listed at the top....

That would be a bad idea

*coughs*

[Snooz]

Nah didn't see your ice day, sorry - but another stat for this wnter It's weird my mum who lives 25 miles south of me was much milder yesterday/this morning than we were (+3.5c as opposed to -1.5c @ 9:30am)

Guess that was what caused the huge drifts I saw on the road up to St. Fergus?

It could be some of that but there was a lot of drifting just last Friday it was blowing as it was snowing, I drove some roads today that also showed the impressive remnants - almost like a tunnel would have had to have been cut through them. (which I know has happened up over Grantown way, tunnels cut )

I can't imagine what it would be like if 50+cm were to blow around like that, but I think in general you either get depth or drifts very rarely both together except perhaps on mountains! Though I do remember one year trying to cycle through a depth/drifting situation to deliver me papers and my dad having to come get me! can't remember the year though not good with dates

PS: hitting a top temp of the day [so far] here just now of +4.2 and it's raining..

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Great charts though tonight in general - much better to be arguing about the snowiness of an easterly and whereabouts of said snow than whether there will be an easterly/ northeasterly!

LS

Is that you with your wee chisel chipping this into the big slab of weather forecast granite now?

Certainly, I'm going to look like an a*s at work next week if my severe cold spell turns out to be warm wet spring weather...

I agree though entirely that we should sleep tonight looking forward to some real cold, quite possibly serious. As for actual snow; if we knew exactly how much we would each get and when it would arrive, where would be the fun in radar watching/reporting on the forum.....?

[LomondSnowstorm]

18Z is a definite upgrade, cold air at just 60 hours out now, which is getting to the point where upgrades between runs 6 hours out actually stick!

http://cirrus.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Wow, 6am Sunday snow risk - did not see that popping up really!

-8 rule perhaps could be bent to -7.5 given lower SSTs?

Shortwave further west http://cirrus.netwea.../78/h500slp.png

Compared to http://cirrus.netwea.../84/h500slp.png

This makes the ECM look even less likely!

Monday morning has more potential on this run too http://cirrus.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

edit: You really couldn't make this up - atlantic coming back at +120 on this one!!

http://91.121.94.83/...fs-0-114.png?18

re-edit: all it really does is delay the cold for 48 hours and brings it in straight from the east http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100204/18/147/h850t850eu.png

Major TOORPing on the model thread. They perhaps need to not take every run literally. Discussing what is going on is fine but talking about anything post 96 in detail as certainty (other than rough direction of flow, rough positioning of pressure systems) is just silly!

Edited February 4, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Snowplough33]

Just out......

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/tayside_and_central/8497483.stm

Sad to hear. I know this bridge well; crosses over a loch near Dunkeld.

Was speaking to my father earlier, he drives the A9 a lot and said black ice is common on this bridge. Also said, as a former civil Engineer who was in charge of sections around findhorn en route to inverness, that a lot of work was done on the bridge in recent years, possibly due to corrosion. Wonder if the moisture/black ice/corrosion could be a local phenomenon? Associated with the lake maybe.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just out......

Obviously going with the UKMO model - very nice chart. That trough is heading right for us!

It might change tomorrow slightly depending where the shortwave ends up but these are notoriously hard to call the position of so perhaps another 24 hours needed before we can really firm up on the details.

Looks cold though!

LS

http://news.bbc.co.u...ral/8497483.stm

Sad to hear. I know this bridge well; crosses over a loch near Dunkeld.

Was speaking to my father earlier, he drives the A9 a lot and said black ice is common on this bridge. Also said, as a former civil Engineer who was in charge of sections around findhorn en route to inverness, that a lot of work was done on the bridge in recent years, possibly due to corrosion. Wonder if the moisture/black ice/corrosion could be a local phenomenon? Associated with the lake maybe.

Very bad incident. Puts the weather in perspective a bit.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Very bad incident. Puts the weather in perspective a bit.

It does. But thankfully not very common.

Not meaning to put a downer on proceedings, but reminds us all to take care out there.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'd have thought it.

Considering your crusade on the (A)GW thread - you people make me sick.

The word 'reserved' means nothing to you Monds

Edited February 4, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Mondy]

Indeed, LSS..

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I'd have thought it.

Considering your crusade on the (A)GW thread - you people make me sick.

Easy tiger.

Or 'Easterly' tiger.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I see what you mean though - the climate change thread has become a bit of a battle between 'warmists' and 'sceptics', with Pete doing a reasonable job trying to stop people tearing each other apart! He also picked me up on the 'sceptic' point - I said that I am a sceptic, to which he replied 'but shouldn't we be sceptical of all things as scientists?'

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

- I said that I am a sceptic, to which he replied 'but shouldn't we be sceptical of all things as scientists?'

My feelings exactly; and what I try to convey to my students (about all research work/science); take care because there is bad science out there. The GW bandwagon is a big one, which I've been on the edges of with my research area. I remain on the fence, and am equally skeptical of arguements from both sides.

But I do think we're being seriously arrogant/stupid to think we know what's going on exactly (which seems to be the GW group attitude in general if you so much as question). It is so inherently complex, it is basically chaos - at least too many factors to define with any reasonable certainty.

Nuff said. In any event, global warming is seemingly causing a severe cold winter here, which we should get back to discussing....

[LomondSnowstorm]

This post by John Holmes was fairly close to bringing me to tears:

well done the last two posters-I'm at the point of leaving NW model thread totally. A shame as I love the weather and discussing it but it is getting really quite ridiculous in there. Just how any newcomer or poster wanting to learn is expected to understand anything is hard to see.

The team have tried to encourage posting into the technical thread but that gets not much usage other than team members so its hard to know how to get a thread going which allows all of whatever knowledge to feel able and wanting to take part.

I'm not a mod or admin and may have this post removed as anyone else but I am sick tired and fed up with some of the, I use the term carefully, idiots in the model thread and then the regional ones when it gets really busy with the weather so many of us find interesting and enjoyable-namely snow and frost.

good night all.

Post this on your signatures if you can -I'm sure Catch will back me up on this one- perhaps it might stop the model thread turning into another 'lunatic running the asylum' situation with a mass cyber-emigration (if that is a word) to the TWO forum. I'm already a member of it, but this forum is, IMO, much, much better than the TWO one, mainly because of this thread in fact, but the model thread has already lost Steve Murr (though he does still post infrequently).

Edited February 4, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Polarlow]

Just spent a couple of hours on the Model output thread ...... WTF ... I feel dirty just reading the posts in there ....

Great to be back in here amongst my Ain Folk !!!!

Roll on next week, some great charts out there ....

[Blizzardo]

Met Office forecast brings in colder conditions into North East parts from Sunday. Have had a quick look at GFS, GME and UKMO so far this morning. Dont really like the look of the GFS with the high too close (need it further north and west) allowing the really cold air to slip into France. UKMO is a little better than the GFS and GME is good. Awaiting the ECM with interest.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday, generally dry, rather cloudy. Monday, patchy rain in Cornwall. Elsewhere mainly dry, but increasing risk of wintry showers in the northeast. Tuesday, sunny intervals, snow showers in the east.

Updated: 0334 on Fri 5 Feb 2010