Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:

[Snowlover2]

But Yankeeshire is getting it now: http://www.senate.go...eral/capcam.htm On fullscreen, it's like having an extra window.

Only a few thousand miles off topic!

Jealous!

[Snowplough33]

But Yankeeshire is getting it now: http://www.senate.go...eral/capcam.htm On fullscreen, it's like having an extra window.

Only a few thousand miles off topic!

Thats cool.

[Snooz]

Lomond is blogging!

(I saw the word "dreich" and it perked my interest! - boring perhaps but I'm refomatting a hard drive which is infinitely more boring than "dreich"...) so c'mon.. you know what to do clicky here and add a comment!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Lol. I have to say the ECM for the reliable is completely tedious - this is the best it gets http://www.meteociel...M1-144.GIF?06-0

Not bad but nothing like the other 2. This, however, is not something to be sniffed at - a setup which would almost guarantee as much snow as the last spell

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-240.GIF?06-0

Perhaps similarities with the last spell when the easterly to start was downgraded only to be followed by the real threat from the north? Or is the ECM just over cautious?

Anyway, the more I think about it the more I realise that this was the same pattern as yesterday - slightly disappointing 00Zs (though today's were maybe slightly better comparative to the 18Z preceeding than yesterday's were to the preceeding 18Z), a stellar 6Z, a nice 12Z GFS and UKMO (the more I think about it, the more I think the UKMO has significant potential for snow from that little feature in the North Sea http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?06-18)

and then the ECM wrecks it slightly with a not too great run and the 18Z will, in all likelihood, be a downgrade, Ian Brown will talk about the high sinking, and yet again we'll end up with the same again tomorrow! But of course we are missing the fact that in the 48 hours that have passed the initial easterly is almost upon us:

Sometimes you can be so busy looking for something far away you can forget to see what's right there in front of you!!

Monday morning is going to be interesting IMO.

One step at a time with the NMM and perhaps we'll know the actual weather and not just that every day has the exact same pattern of upgrade/downgrade!!

Edited February 6, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Snowplough33]

LS

Cant get that link at the bottom to work, but assume its the ECM 240 out............caught my eye but resisted posting cause FI. FI is great ECM but not so clever on GSF........I think the word on this forum is..........onions. Love the swear convertor........highly amusing (slightly childish)

Edited February 6, 2010 by Snowplough33

[LomondSnowstorm]

LS

Cant get that link at the bottom to work, but assume its the ECM 240 out............caught my eye but resisted posting cause FI. FI is great ECM but not so clever on GSF........I think the word on this forum is..........onions. Love the swear convertor........highly amusing (slightly childish)

Ok, pardon the language if this doesn't convert to the word onions but I am a teenager after all

onions

hey it worked!!!

can i be excused to try one more?

Lettuce

hah, even better!

One more would be pushing it - laminate floor

brilliant!

prune

hah - caravan

Lettuceing hell

Now who's ruining the forum??

Edited February 6, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Snowlover2]

Lettuce

hahaha onions

laminate floor

Lettuceing

So Ls what days are looking good for snow for us?

Edited February 6, 2010 by Snowlover2

[Snowplough33]

Ok, pardon the language if this doesn't convert to the word onions but I am a teenager after all

onions

hey it worked!!!

can i be excused to try one more?

Lettuce

hah, even better!

One more would be pushing it - laminate floor

LOL its brilliant......I never ventured beyond onions just in case.

FAB.

Anyway thoughts on this evenings run

laminate floor.........not converted. What on earth was that. Tell me the first letter.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Snowplough33

[LomondSnowstorm]

LOL its brilliant......I never ventured beyond onions just in case.

FAB.

Anyway thoughts on this evenings run

It's a mixed bag really. Monday looks good for something for east central http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/12/45/h850t850eu.png , Tuesday is definitely going to be a more northeast and southeast based event due to the northerly flow http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/12/69/h500slp.png , into Wednesday a trough drops south to be off the coast of the entire country http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/12/90/6hrprecip.png , and this could deliver if the flow has enough easterly in it.

Northeasterly on the GFS is good enough to blow it inland and give some heavier, prolonged snow http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/12/90/6hrprecip.png , UKMO slacker but with potential for shortwaves to pop up and bring the precipitation inland http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW96-21.GIF?06-18

and the ECM is certainly onionster (more pungent anyway) than the other two http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-96.GIF?06-0

Still 96 hours out, so open to change, but 2 out of three isn't bad!

LS

laminate floor.........not converted. What on earth was that. Tell me the first letter.

well my clue is that joe laminate floori is the chief meteorologist of accuweather, not joe Lettucei or joe onionsty or joe caravany or joe pruney

[Snowplough33]

It's a mixed bag really. Monday looks good for something for east central http://cirrus.netwea.../h850t850eu.png , Tuesday is definitely going to be a more northeast and southeast based event due to the northerly flow http://cirrus.netwea.../69/h500slp.png , into Wednesday a trough drops south to be off the coast of the entire country http://cirrus.netwea...0/6hrprecip.png , and this could deliver if the flow has enough easterly in it.

Northeasterly on the GFS is good enough to blow it inland and give some heavier, prolonged snow http://cirrus.netwea...0/6hrprecip.png , UKMO slacker but with potential for shortwaves to pop up and bring the precipitation inland http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?06-18

and the ECM is certainly onionster (more pungent anyway) than the other two http://www.meteociel...CM1-96.GIF?06-0

Still 96 hours out, so open to change, but 2 out of three isn't bad!

LS

well my clue is that joe laminate floori is the chief meteorologist of accuweather, not joe Lettucei or joe onionsty or joe caravany or joe pruney

Great run down again...not bull onions

[LomondSnowstorm]

Great run down again...not bull onions

That NMM chart I posted is what we should all really be getting excited about - an easterly with uppers of -8! When have you seen them not deliver??

Or is that a hint too far?!

[Snowplough33]

That NMM chart I posted is what we should all really be getting excited about - an easterly with uppers of -8! When have you seen them not deliver??

Or is that a hint too far?!

When I read that post 204 earlier, it was just a couple of lines and that chart was not there. It looks fab. The site is playing up a bit tonight. Wierd. Had I seen that chart for Monday, I would certainly have reacted!! Lets see what the next chapter of the GSF saga reads.

Here is to convective snow Monday

[LomondSnowstorm]

When I read that post 204 earlier, it was just a couple of lines and that chart was not there. It looks fab. The site is playing up a bit tonight. Wierd. Had I seen that chart for Monday, I would certainly have reacted!! Lets see what the next chapter of the GSF saga reads.

Here is to convective snow Monday

Interesting. The high is a little closer but a band of snow still gets here (sorry to those west of Stirling) on Tuesday night.

Tomorrow will be dealt with by the NMM but the GFS shows a bit of potential for Tuesday http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/66/ukprec.png

This is the band I was talking about http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/78/ukprec.png

By Wednesday there is a trough just sitting to the east of us, though on this particular run it mainly heads towards northeast England http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/93/ukprec.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/111/ukprec.png

This is due to a more northerly flow caused by the high sitting a little further south http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/96/h500slp.png

By early Friday, the flow has changed to something a bit better http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/129/h500slp.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/135/h850t850eu.png

It retrogresses eventually - just in time, as the cold pool has run out to our east http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/171/h850t850eu.png

And then we see this again http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/18/252/h500slp.png

Currently, we're looking at the next 24-30 hours with conditions not conduicive to snowfall, but after that, in general, uppers are either around or below -8 or the wind is not sourced directly from the North Sea. Aberdeen and Dunbar could be the biggest winners of the first part of the cold spell, but the chances of a second major phase, the stronger easterly followed by that familiar south moving trough, is becoming a distinct possibility supported by both the models and the teleconnections.

LS

[Cheggers]

Horayyyyyyy it's stop raining 4.7C and now just murky. Roll on some cold weather next week.

LS Any indications how far west you think the first bout of and snow may reach?

Edited February 6, 2010 by Cheggers

[skifreak]

I am in mourning! The last patch of snow in the garden failed to make it to midnight!

It has 23hrs 34minutes to snow so not to break the chain at 52days of having snow in the garden!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Horayyyyyyy it's stop raining 4.7C and now just murky. Roll on some cold weather next week.

LS Any indications how far west you think the first bout of and snow may reach?

First of all

You HAVE to watch this. Amazing video - pretty much sums up what I'd be like as a tv meteorologist!

The first bout is overnight tomorrow into Monday, when showers, probably fairly light but intensity will only be decided on the radar, penetrate right across the central belt. These will be snow where you are probably will be sleety from maybe 8pm onwards tomorrow night as dewpoint on the NAE appear to be around or below freezing http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/06/basis18/ukuk/taup/10020721_0618.gif

A difference of opinion from the NMM though

It makes far more of coastal modification. I have no idea how the NAE dewpoints stacked up against the NMM but with uppers like these I suppose a mid-ground scenario is more likely

-8 rule marginal so dewpoints perhaps hovering between 0-1C near the coast and maybe -1C- -2C inland by 3am.

The NMM is less stubborn than other models also so if it is wrong, it will quickly change.

I've also decided based on the advice of a more knowledgeable poster than myself to take a break from the model thread for a bit - I advise those of you who haven't done so already to avoid it for the time being, as it has become a bit of a nuclear war zone. Glacier Point tends to post on the in depth thread anyway, which I also suggest as decent reading, but until the thread is under control, I think any comment on there might be a bit of a waste of time! I hate to think what newcomers think of it all anyway.

Another set of ensembles which looks good http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100206/18/t850Fife.png

ENEsterly favoured at +144 http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100206/18/h500slpmean-144.png

The fax charts also look promising http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVO89.png http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVM89.png

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gensp/run/gens-21-1-126.png?18 parallel ensembles have a rare moment of beauty, which I assume is a mistake from another perturbation.

Example of this: the chart before http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gensp/run/gens-21-1-120.png?18 and the chart after http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gensp/run/gens-21-1-132.png?18

Both good, with a very cold easterly, but the strength shown by the +126 chart is pretty unheard of for an ensemble mean.

LS

[Guest]

Lots of cold crisp winter weather coming for the west, I just hope the east gets a pasting so that we get some crumbs. The good signs are that the high looks like sitting over us and then going on holiday to Greenland which could mean a northerly at the end of next week.

I think now it is time to polish up the radar and sat pic watching specs before sitting back and getting comfy before enjoying what will be the last long cold spell of this winter :cold:

sub -5C 850 temps will be across the country by this afternoon and that makes it cold spell on!

[GraemeB]

0z gfs has Friday looking very interesting - Op and control on the ensemblies both going for sub -10 air, only a couple of members in agreement though...

Whatever happens, from this afternoon, the cold air is coming and we should all be under some chilly air on the trudge to work tomorrow...agree with LS though, that there is some possibilty of snow overnight, the only thing that would worry me, is that temps and DP are conducive enough for it to lie ?

Couple of Charts for Friday attached

[Guest]

0z gfs has Friday looking very interesting - Op and control on the ensemblies both going for sub -10 air, only a couple of members in agreement though...

Whatever happens, from this afternoon, the cold air is coming and we should all be under some chilly air on the trudge to work tomorrow...agree with LS though, that there is some possibilty of snow overnight, the only thing that would worry me, is that temps and DP are conducive enough for it to lie ?

Couple of Charts for Friday attached

The most impressive thing about the ensembles is that there may be some scatter but it is mostly below -5 850 temp which means cold weather of some kind:

Inverclyde:

Angus:

This kind of agreement and length of cold spell is pretty impressive and quite rare in normal years (if not rare, then unknown). I appreciate that different synoptics will have produced these lines, but the end result is the same: cold.

Edited February 7, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Snowplough33]

Morning Catch. Glad to see the ususal suspects are up with the kids.

Great posts LS from yesterday evening. Lots to look forward to. Just off for quick flick through the charts.

Swear convertor still makes me laugh from yesterday evening . IF only my viocebox was as clever as the forum.

0z gfs has Friday looking very interesting - Op and control on the ensemblies both going for sub -10 air, only a couple of members in agreement though...

Whatever happens, from this afternoon, the cold air is coming and we should all be under some chilly air on the trudge to work tomorrow...agree with LS though, that there is some possibilty of snow overnight, the only thing that would worry me, is that temps and DP are conducive enough for it to lie ?

Couple of Charts for Friday attached

Those charts are awesome.......permission to be a little excited

[GraemeB]

Morning SP33

Damn Kids, Damn Sunday Mornings

Don't they know they are allowed to have a long lie ! lol That ECM chart is lovely -10 air right across the central belt - if that verifies (and it's kind of agreeing with the GFS), then Friday could very well be a snow day for us in central regions....

I missed the last event in December as I stupidly went to Oz for Xmas, so I'm kind of desperate for another one (how selfish is that, we've gone 3 years since the last semi decent snowy winter, and now here we all are getting ready to move into Toorp mode if we dont get snow again this winter )

[Snowplough33]

Morning SP33

Damn Kids, Damn Sunday Mornings

Don't they know they are allowed to have a long lie ! lol That ECM chart is lovely -10 air right across the central belt - if that verifies (and it's kind of agreeing with the GFS), then Friday could very well be a snow day for us in central regions....

I missed the last event in December as I stupidly went to Oz for Xmas, so I'm kind of desperate for another one (how selfish is that, we've gone 3 years since the last semi decent snowy winter, and now here we all are getting ready to move into Toorp mode if we dont get snow again this winter )

Yes and for a change my lovely wife is upstairs.......but gives me some time to veiw charts ect. She thinks my obsession with cold and snow is completely weird anyway, but thats another tale.

THis cold seems to be going the same as the last one. Lots of talk early on of no ppn, but as the event draws closer, things develop. As LS and others say, get the cold in and snow will crop up. You are perhaps sick of hearing it, but the 23rd Dec at about 2 or 3 in the morning a completely unforecast snow event took place from the NE. 6" or so fell over a large area. This was our largest fall of the spell, but shows things will happen if the cold is there.

Great charts this morning........have to use that terrible word.........UPGRADE

[GraemeB]

Yes and for a change my lovely wife is upstairs.......but gives me some time to veiw charts ect. She thinks my obsession with cold and snow is completely weird anyway, but thats another tale.

THis cold seems to be going the same as the last one. Lots of talk early on of no ppn, but as the event draws closer, things develop. As LS and others say, get the cold in and snow will crop up. You are perhaps sick of hearing it, but the 23rd Dec at about 2 or 3 in the morning a completely unforecast snow event took place from the NE. 6" or so fell over a large area. This was our largest fall of the spell, but shows things will happen if the cold is there.

Great charts this morning........have to use that terrible word.........UPGRADE

I thought it was only my wife who thought it was "odd" the amount of time I spend looking at charts through the winter

[Snowplough33]

I thought it was only my wife who thought it was "odd" the amount of time I spend looking at charts through the winter

She will be praying for winter in two months time when I relocate back to the golf course / club

[Methuselah]

Morning all... It's nondescript again today.