Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:

[blitzen]

Next Saturday is as good as it gets http://91.121.94.83/...162.png?6Uppers -9 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-162.png?6Brilliant!Oh, and this little chart will be important in the 48-36 hour range http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/06/basis06/ukuk/taup/10020718_0606.gifAlready sub 0C dewpoints by Sunday evening

Nice. It is infuriating though isn't it that those -10c uppers just manage to stay south of the border for the duration! Still, much will change as things progress I feel. I think we can certainly say that this is 'nailed' now don't you think?

How does this compare to the last one LS? Blimey, my memory is getting worse!

Edited February 6, 2010 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

Nice. It is infuriating though isn't it that those -10c uppers just manage to stay south of the border for the duration! Still, much will change as things progress I feel. I think we can certainly say that this is 'nailed' now don't you think?

How does this compare to the last one LS? Blimey, my memory is getting worse!

The last one began similarly, with an easterly which no one thought would deliver here delivering 2-3 inches of snow. This was followed, though, by a trough moving in from the north, bringing the initial band of snow, which was absolutely pathetic, and then it was supposed to be dry. What people discounted was the trough moving around over us meant that instabillity was always going to be huge, and this went on to produce more widespread, deep snow than I think I've seen for a sustained period. The difference this time is that pressure is generally higher, so the potential for random snow events is lessened, but if the GEM verified (and the 6Z moved a bitmore towards that) then there would be a pretty exceptional spell of snow for most in eastern and central Scotland, perhaps further north also. Slight movements will affect a lot, as we've seen before, where a slight shift in wind direction or placement of a shortwave further northwest can mean the difference between a decent day with a flurry or two and a big dumping from a Tay-Clyde (due to ENE tilt) streamer.

[lorenzo]

Looking forward to the 18z charts, coming into a non FI timeframe now.

GP reply to my post is a good one, got some reading to do now..! Technical is not the word !

I am getting more interested now in what will happen after the initial snow events, are we in for a replay of December cold spell...

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looking forward to the 18z charts, coming into a non FI timeframe now.

GP reply to my post is a good one, got some reading to do now..! Technical is not the word !

I am getting more interested now in what will happen after the initial snow events, are we in for a replay of December cold spell...

Easterly turning to a northerly? It does look similar to me with the high pressure heading for Greenland, perhaps more of a northeasterly flow also which could be interesting for most of Scotland. The second week of this spell definitely looks to have more potential than the beginning, even if the GEM verified this would still be the case, due to lower pressure rather than higher pressure dominating (probably).LS

[Polar Side]

Great post's LS, I'm enjoying your analysis. Look forward to some more model up-grades.

[Snowplough33]

Looking forward to the 18z charts, coming into a non FI timeframe now.

GP reply to my post is a good one, got some reading to do now..! Technical is not the word !

I am getting more interested now in what will happen after the initial snow events, are we in for a replay of December cold spell...

WAs this posted or PM. If posted can we have link please.

[LomondSnowstorm]

WAs this posted or PM. If posted can we have link please.

[Snowplough33]

http://forum.netweat...n/page__st__204

Thanks for that, but WOW. I will stick to trying to learn on lesser in depth threads for now. (what are they talking about )

[blitzen]

Just read DAMIANSLAW post No;358 on the MOD thread and he is predicting that this cold spell could evolve into a 3 weeker with the third week being the most severe with widespread snow? Interesting.

Edited February 6, 2010 by Blitzen

[Snowlover2]

Just read DAMIANSLAW post No;358 on the MOD thread and he is predicting that this cold spell could evolve into a 3 weeker with the third week being the most severe with widespread snow? Interesting.

A 3 weeker would be amazing.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just read DAMIANSLAW post No;358 on the MOD thread and he is predicting that this cold spell could evolve into a 3 weeker with the third week being the most severe with widespread snow? Interesting.

IF the high retrogrades to Greenland, the jet continues to track south and the stratospheric warming propagates, this is entirely feasibleRemember again that precipitation charts are likely to be underestimates for North Sea convection showers, certainly in intensity. The GFS 6Z is an upgrade in the general pattern from the 00Z, as everything is further northwest, but it is a bit harder to tell from precipitation charts. Some of the runs on the ensembles are very good, others look implausible and sink the high, while a few more back the operational, including the control. Let's just wait and see what happens from hereThis icon is almost assured!LS

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Right, can I ask a wee question here.

See when we see it predicted a lot that a cold spell is coming up next week. Is it actually going to be cold for us in Scotland, or just cold relative to what usually happens in England?

Looking at BBC and weatheronline forecasts for Glasgow, I don't see anything especially cold with regard to temperatures here. Dropping below freezing (edit: at night) does not to me constitute anything worth talking about on its own. That's what winter should be!

Or, are people predicting a genuine cold spell with ice days and snow potential included, which the weather sites either haven't picked up on, or just aren't predicting to make it through to the west?

Edited February 6, 2010 by Glaswegianblizzard

[LomondSnowstorm]

Right, can I ask a wee question here.

See when we see it predicted a lot that a cold spell is coming up next week. Is it actually going to be cold for us in Scotland, or just cold relative to what usually happens in England?

Looking at BBC and weatheronline forecasts for Glasgow, I don't see anything especially cold with regard to temperatures here. Dropping below freezing (edit: at night) does not to me constitute anything worth talking about on its own. That's what winter should be!

Or, are people predicting a genuine cold spell with ice days and snow potential included, which the weather sites either haven't picked up on, or just aren't predicting to make it through to the west?

Hmmm, very good point raised here. I reckon ice days are a distinct possibility in Glasgow, more especially if a surface high develops close to northern Scotland, but in terms of snowfall, I can't see all that much getting west based on the current charts other than the GEM. Some heavy snow showers are possible for Glasgow, especially on Monday afternoon and possibly Thursday, but this is mainly an east based event, perhaps a northeast, possibly a central east, but not really all that far west. This may change though, but for the moment the most likely outlook is mainly dry for western Scotland.LS

[Snowplough33]

Any thoughts how our 1530 roll out is likely to look??

Nearly stopped raining, the cloud base has raised a little so can see a couple of miles now and the ENE is slighty increasing

Edited February 6, 2010 by Snowplough33

[LomondSnowstorm]

Any thoughts how our 1530 roll out is likely to look??

Nearly stopped raining, the cloud base has raised a little so can see a couple of miles now and the ENE is slighty increasing

No idea really. Better than the 06Z? Perhaps, but I doubt any huge changes in the medium range outlook are afoot, though of course slight changes can affect snowfall amounts etc.LS

[Mondy]

OT, but check out the snow threads on Eastern US wx forum: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15

[LomondSnowstorm]

OT, but check out the snow threads on Eastern US wx forum: http://www.easternus...hp?showforum=15

Talks of 70cm of snow in Washington! Imagine if London saw that!!! Anyway, at +66 hours the 12Z looks like it might end up with the high directly over us http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/12/66/h500slp.pngBut take a look at it by +108 http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/12/108/h500slp.pngProper easterly beginning to form. Note the major trough to our east comes into play at this point in time http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/12/111/ukprec.pngBingo! Temperatures look cold enough for snow also http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/12/111/ukmintemp.pngSo I foresee a very nice run from this point onwards.LS

[blitzen]

Up to 132 now and I think it is a better run for us here with -10 uppers overhead, the high is also a bit further north and west which is allowing a stronger just north of east flow? Cold pool to our east looks to be reducing by 162 tho' but might increase again further on?

Edited February 6, 2010 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

Up to 132 now and I think it is a better run for us here with -10 uppers overhead, the high is also a bit further north and west which is allowing a stronger easterly flow?

Very much so. The only worry is that the cold pool is fairly shallow so is diminishing to -6 uppers by +168, but as the high moves northwest, the flow will hopefully begin to pull more to the north.LS

[blitzen]

The run goes every which way in FI so not paying any attention to that as if I would! . Yeah, a good run tho' i'm quite happy with that as it is still showing cold.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The run goes every which way in FI so not paying any attention to that as if I would! . Yeah, a good run tho' i'm quite happy with that as it is still showing cold.

And more snow than the 6Z! FI is a bit odd but not totally implausible, with low pressure dropping out of the arctic towards us, though the block diminishes far too quickly IMO.The UKMO is a bit odd as it develops two mini shortwaves, so unsure how this would affect us, but Nick S seems to think this is a bit of an unlikely evolution!LS

[GraemeB]

The 12z looks to be a run for Englandshire getting the snow towards the tail end of the week...

Not so good for us I fear...

[Methuselah]

But Yankeeshire is getting it now: http://www.senate.gov/general/capcam.htm On fullscreen, it's like having an extra window.

Only a few thousand miles off topic!

[LomondSnowstorm]

The 12z looks to be a run for Englandshire getting the snow towards the tail end of the week...

Not so good for us I fear...

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/12/114/prectypeuktopo.png

I'd take that!

[GraemeB]

http://cirrus.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

I'd take that!

Ich Auch

However the webcam from WashingtonDC, is quite frankly, awesome duuuuude.