Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Hmmm, very good point raised here. I reckon ice days are a distinct possibility in Glasgow, more especially if a surface high develops close to northern Scotland, but in terms of snowfall, I can't see all that much getting west based on the current charts other than the GEM. Some heavy snow showers are possible for Glasgow, especially on Monday afternoon and possibly Thursday, but this is mainly an east based event, perhaps a northeast, possibly a central east, but not really all that far west. This may change though, but for the moment the most likely outlook is mainly dry for western Scotland.LS

Cheers LS.

As Catch said in a post earlier, a few crumbs through the central belt to the west, coupled with some nice crisp weather, would do nicely.

I'm up for work at 4am on Wednesday for a 6am start. I wonder what it'll be like then...

But still nothing compared to the wonderful spell just past though.

[Highland Snow]

The sun has finally broken through here (!) but it seems so bright you wouldn't want to glimpse it

That's where the Sun Filter on my ETX Telescope comes in Catch. B) (Never look directly at the Sun.):excl:

What a poor Winter it has been for Sunshine come to think of it. Haven't got to observe the Sun more than a handful of times since December.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Highland Snow

[Gilly]

Loved that American weather report.

Oh boy does that chap get excited......wonder what he does for an encore!!!! LOLOLOLOL

Thanks for the updates LS........don't know where we would be without you. I live in hope for this coming weekend.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Gilly

[Methuselah]

just caught up with all the other vids too.. thanks for posting them all, they're fab

it was miserable standing watching the footie this morning, dreich and cold.. forgot what the damp cold felt like, once it gets into fingers and toes it doesn't shift!

now to look what I came here for.. the weather

PS: Odd? what's odd about us :pardon:hehe

That's what the three-day-old half-time stewed tea is for...

[Guest]

That's where the Sun Filter on my ETX Telescope comes in Catch. (Never look directly at the Sun.)

What a poor Winter it has been for Sunshine come to think of it. Haven't got to observe the Sun more than a handful of times since December.

Now you tell me about not looking at the sun :)

As far as I know this winter has been slightly sunnier than average here, but that means 80 hours or so since November.

Another interesting point is the severe lack of rain since November. We were up the back roads yesterday and the reservoirs are as empty as I've ever seen them. The main reservoir in my area, Loch Thom, is many feet below normal level, the shoreline has retreated by 20-30 metres all the way round which looks really weird (forgot the camera ). It looks as though February will stay fairly dry too.

[Guest]

These two charts pretty much sum up the week ahead for me:

The first one shows the mean sea level pressure from the GFS ensembles 12z for next Saturday with the spread of the other members shown. This shows a fairly high probability of a high centred near Iceland so not much change from the current conditions.

The second one shows the high moving towards Greenland which should open the door for a proper arctic plunge:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Things look good for a long spell of cold weather now, judging by almost all the model outputs - http://cirrus.netwea...240/h500slp.png

http://91.121.94.83/...n/gem-0-240.png Yes, that is the PV sitting across northeastern Scotland

Slow to start, slow to end, seems to be a reasonable way of describing this spell.

For once, actually, I'm quite looking forward to the point when this happens http://91.121.94.83/...gfs-0-48.png?12.

The reason for this is http://91.121.94.83/...gfs-1-36.png?12 the uppers, although around -8, are not emphatically cold, so the threat of coastal modification remains, but if the winds are more northerly, this element will be removed for those in central and eastern areas. Things to watch are - showers tomorrow during the day, these turning more to snow as the day goes on, this http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100207/12/48/ukprec.png , this band moving south again http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100207/12/60/ukprec.png, perhaps this depending on the wind direction http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100207/12/69/ukprec.png, showers in this flow http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?07-18

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100207/12/120/prectypeuktopo.png

Depending on the strength and uppers of course http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gensp/run/gens-21-1-120.png?12 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gensp/run/gens-21-0-120.png?12.

And then the real fun begins, as the high retrogresses to Greenland and, in the same fashion as the last spell, a trough drops out of the arctic. How close to us this gets will affect how much snow is found away from favoured spots - something like this, with the centre of the low directly over the UK, would be one of the best options

Just looking back on all the great charts from that spell makes me think how incredibly lucky we were to witness an event like that - it was almost the perfect spell.

Will this one match it? I seriously doubt it, not because it won't necessarily be a stellar cold spell, just because of how amazing the first one was for everyone.

LS

[Cheggers]

Saw a little blue sky today but no sun Temp dropping quite quickly now, down to 4C from 5.5C an hour ago.

Thanks for the update earlier LS.

[LomondSnowstorm]

These two charts pretty much sum up the week ahead for me:

The first one shows the mean sea level pressure from the GFS ensembles 12z for next Saturday with the spread of the other members shown. This shows a fairly high probability of a high centred near Iceland so not much change from the current conditions.

The second one shows the high moving towards Greenland which should open the door for a proper arctic plunge:

Nice charts!

I love your signature, so much so that it INspired (hah, only you and I will get that joke!) me to search for the name of the member.

There have been some pretty awful posts in that thread and that perhaps sums it up rather nicely.

[Snowplough33]

Things look good for a long spell of cold weather now, judging by almost all the model outputs - http://cirrus.netwea...240/h500slp.png

http://91.121.94.83/...n/gem-0-240.png Yes, that is the PV sitting across northeastern Scotland

Slow to start, slow to end, seems to be a reasonable way of describing this spell.

For once, actually, I'm quite looking forward to the point when this happens http://91.121.94.83/...gfs-0-48.png?12.

The reason for this is http://91.121.94.83/...gfs-1-36.png?12 the uppers, although around -8, are not emphatically cold, so the threat of coastal modification remains, but if the winds are more northerly, this element will be removed for those in central and eastern areas. Things to watch are - showers tomorrow during the day, these turning more to snow as the day goes on, this http://cirrus.netwea...2/48/ukprec.png , this band moving south again http://cirrus.netwea...2/60/ukprec.png, perhaps this depending on the wind direction http://cirrus.netwea...2/69/ukprec.png, showers in this flow http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?07-18

http://cirrus.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Depending on the strength and uppers of course http://91.121.94.83/...21-1-120.png?12 http://91.121.94.83/...21-0-120.png?12.

And then the real fun begins, as the high retrogresses to Greenland and, in the same fashion as the last spell, a trough drops out of the arctic. How close to us this gets will affect how much snow is found away from favoured spots - something like this, with the centre of the low directly over the UK, would be one of the best options

Just looking back on all the great charts from that spell makes me think how incredibly lucky we were to witness an event like that - it was almost the perfect spell.

Will this one match it? I seriously doubt it, not because it won't necessarily be a stellar cold spell, just because of how amazing the first one was for everyone.

LS

Thanking you.........never fails to amaze me the time and effort you put into these forecasts each day.

[LadyPakal]

Not only did we have a grey rainy day with nary a glimpse of the sun - it was also misty. Totally depressing to say the least. Yet more rain today - that's 3 days on the trot now.

Still, I did manage to get my new weather station erected & operational yesterday!

[Highland Snow]

Not only did we have a grey rainy day with nary a glimpse of the sun - it was also misty. Totally depressing to say the least. Yet more rain today - that's 3 days on the trot now.

Still, I did manage to get my new weather station erected & operational yesterday!

Which Station did you buy Julie?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Dream start by the ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-72.GIF?07-0

[LadyPakal]

Which Station did you buy Julie?

Davis Vantage Vue - now need a datalogger *groan*

[Guest]

Nice charts!

I love your signature, so much so that it INspired (hah, only you and I will get that joke!) me to search for the name of the member.

There have been some pretty awful posts in that thread and that perhaps sums it up rather nicely.

A nice picture of a cold beer to you then....you could use it in your avatar

The model thread has been so bad recently I almost posted in it earlier to raise the standard.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The model thread has been so bad recently I almost posted in it earlier to raise the standard.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?07-0 ECM you've done it again - ya beauty! Note the shortwaves cropping up also.

Edited February 7, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Guest]

Then I came to my senses.

Is it my imagination or is there a chance of mist and fog forming in this type of set-up? That is probably our best (only?) chance of ice days at the moment.

Edit: A quick check through WeatherOnline shows that ice days in February are rare things, the one the other day (Weds?) is the only ice day I can find in February (the records go back to 1982 at Glasgow Airport). Low maxima are fairly common (1C or 2C), but proper ice days are very rare.

Edited February 7, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Blizzardo]

Nice ECM tonight thats better for Scotland. At 192 hours.

[Guest]

Nice ECM tonight thats better for Scotland. At 192 hours.

I think the GFS is looking like going that way too with the high towards Greenland and the arctic emptying down towards us

Long way off but maybe not unrealistic given the high pressure/settled weather between now and then.

[lorenzo]

ECM is excellent this evening, an upgrade or confirmation of locked in cold.

The heights rises on Greenland are kicking in perfectly for later in the week also.

Let the fun begin

[Snowplough33]

The general picture from countryfile week forecast looked pretty good.

[GraemeB]

The general picture from countryfile week forecast looked pretty good.

For Englandshire

Anyhoo - bring on the PV Snowmageddon/Baltimageddon:ph34r:

[Highland Snow]

Davis Vantage Vue - now need a datalogger *groan*

Julie check this guy out. I ordered my Vantage Pro 2 with FARS from him last May and this IP Data Logger broadcasts my Data to the Internet 24/7.

Ask for his best price and get it sent as a trade sample. You should get it for under £150 easily, that's half the UK price of typically >£350,

Andrew.

http://www.archertra...&products_id=30

Edited February 7, 2010 by Highland Snow

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Evening all.

I'm back. After eating and breathing cairngorm snow for the last two days, I'm hungry for more.

Humm 'BBC thinks light snow showers' might be possible tonight.

Time to catch up on this whole easterly thingymbob...

First step: find LSS's most recent summary.

[LadyPakal]

Julie check this guy out. I ordered my Vantage Pro 2 with FARS from him last May and this IP Data Logger broadcasts my Data to the Internet 24/7.

Ask for his best price and get it sent as a trade sample. You should get it for under £150 easily, that's half the UK price of typically >£350,

Andrew.

http://www.archertra...&products_id=30

Thanks - I'll take a look!