Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:

[lorenzo]

Looking forward to the model output from tomorrow evening into Sunday morning, then I reckon we will see some accord.

[Snooz]

What a filthy miserable night out there, 4C, rain, murky, horrible.

Great updates LS, after the other night refuse to go near the TTT (temper tantrum thread) Looks like cold at the very least.

ditto..

mildISH (compared to recent temps!) - dreich and raining, haven't lost all snowcover, but most if it on concrete, roofs, roads etx.. it's still there on soil/grass (deep frozen ground?)

which reminds me.. with ref to the above, my neighbour has just added a soil thermometer to their WS, what's the main purpose of one of those? (i./e. why is it useful to know this temp?)

just thought I'd pop in here tonight to say "Keep up the fab work LS, "

I, for one, am still reading you even if I'm nae speaking much.. you're doing a sterling job in the MO thread, though how you can bear it in there I don't know.. I came in last night, later after work, and saw the "palaver" (© Stephen King I think) re JH etc.. and moved on out just as quick.. same tonight really.. can't be bothered - if it's going to be cold, it's going to be cold.. if it's going to snow, it's going to snow.. but it's just not too much fun watching this time, would reather it was surprise hehe - and heck.. why let this last burst of winter "banter" spoil the memories of an already great winter and/or the best Weather thread in the world!! :)

[Polar Side]

UKMO 12z & GFS12z were looking good for Scotland then the ECM was a bit disapointing followed by a dodgy GFS 18z ! Fax charts look interesting though

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO 12z & GFS12z were looking good for Scotland then the ECM was a bit disapointing followed by a dodgy GFS 18z ! Fax charts look interesting though

18Z and ECM 12Z did this last night too! Even the 18Z ensembles were disappointing! Tonight's will be the same, I tell ya - 12Z ensembles http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m5.gifhttp://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-114.png?18Sigh. The 18Z is getting to be a laughing stock really, and it deserves nothing more to be honest. NOGAPS, which is running alongside the GFS 18Z in the verification rates, shows this http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-114.png?06-00Entirely plausible. SP33, I must add that the shortwave plunging southwest is not the only important thing - another important development is the shortwave not leaving a trail of energy over Scandi and stopping the ridging from the east - example 1 - http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-96.png?06-00The shortwave has cleared Scandi, with pressure rising behind.Example 2 - Shortwave not as far west but still clearing Scandi easily and allowing an easterly to build.Example 3 - Shortwave much further east with the 1020 isobar and the 1015 isobar scuppering the easterly developing.LS

[Norrance]

What a filthy miserable night out there, 4C, rain, murky, horrible.

Great updates LS, after the other night refuse to go near the TTT (temper tantrum thread) Looks like cold at the very least.

Norrance, were you at Hampden the other night?

Very similar here with a couple of bursts of unexpectedly heavy rain recently. 4.7C

Didn't make it to Hampden on Wed due to family commitments but will be at McD tomorrow for the Scottish.

[Guest]

Snow showers for the NE anyone?

I think I got an up to date chart this time LS :lol:

The irony is that the latest FAX for Tues is not dissimilar to the last one I posted

Edited February 6, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Snowplough33]

Snow showers for the NE anyone?

I think I got an up to date chart this time LS

The irony is that the latest FAX for Tues is not dissimilar to the last one I posted

That FAX looks quite good, but the last couple of GSF runs have been onions

0715.......the joys of yoyng children!!

[Methuselah]

Morning all! I see it's all still on...

[Northernlights]

Murky and drizzly(2 days in a row now) currently 2c, not good for housed cattle(pneumonia risk) or outside sheep(constant wet fleeces lose their insulating properties), hope it gets brighter and dryer soon.

[Guest]

That FAX looks quite good, but the last couple of GSF runs have been onions

0715.......the joys of yoyng children!!

It was 5 something this morning for us I couldn't see the rest of the time.

Morning all! I see it's all still on... :lol:

What's that: the cold spell or the model thread melee?

[Snowplough33]

It was 5 something this morning for us I couldn't see the rest of the time.

What's that: the cold spell or the model thread melee?

WOW thats early.......the 00z is barely rolled out by that time.

[Guest]

Murky and drizzly(2 days in a row now) currently 2c, not good for housed cattle(pneumonia risk) or outside sheep(constant wet fleeces lose their insulating properties), hope it gets brighter and dryer soon.

The murk is no good for any animal, including us

I am not sure what the forecast is for you NL but for here it's more of the same probably until at least tomorrow afternoon.

TAF for Glasgow Airport:

TAF EGPF 060502Z 0606/0706 VRB05KT 8000 SCT008 BKN012 TEMPO

0606/0612 4000 -RADZ BR FEW004 BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 0606/0609

1500 RADZ BR BKN004 =

The two important parts of this forecast are RADZ and BR. No prizes for guessing that RADZ means rain/drizzle, BR means mist. Yug!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/metartafsearch/both.cgi?choice=egpf&Hours=0&submit.x=10&submit.y=13

WOW thats early.......the 00z is barely rolled out by that time.

It does mean that the wee man goes for his mid-morning snooze at 9.30am :lol: Perfect timing for the 06z starting

[Snowplough33]

THats quite handy cause the 06z is going to do a massive U-turn. The HP will implode, with a LP stalling in the southern North Sea from tuesday to thursday with -10 to -12 uppers and howling east to north east winds.

[Guest]

THats quite handy cause the 06z is going to do a massive U-turn. The HP will implode, with a LP stalling in the southern North Sea from tuesday to thursday with -10 to -12 uppers and howling east to north east winds.

That'll never happen.

The 5 polar lows will prevent the LP in the North Sea from stalling......

[Gilly]

Morning all........ another dreich day. 3C and a mizzle.

Todays charts will be interesting. At this moment there is not too much precipitation to be seen, only very light occasional showers. I am putting my money on the snow(if any for us) to be next friday at the earliest.

BUT I would be very happy to see it sooner and more of it:whistling:

[Snowlover2]

That'll never happen.

The 5 polar lows will prevent the LP in the North Sea from stalling......

5 polar lows??? I too was up early, my turn today. Weather here is Horrible, cant see the hills from the mist and it's that horrible rain, not heavy but soaks through your clothes.

Temp is 5.1°C (41.2°F) and DP is 5.1°C (Wet bulb: 5.1°C)

[Gilly]

That'll never happen.

The 5 polar lows will prevent the LP in the North Sea from stalling......

I love your positivity Catch!!

[Snowplough33]

00z run of the day has to be GEM. Dream from start to finish...........HP, what High Pressure???

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

[blitzen]

Morning people. Ditto forecast for here too: Temp 5.2c Dew point 5.2c and wind NE with horrible drizzle, snizzle and mizzle! Yuk!!!

00z run of the day has to be GEM. Dream from start to finish...........HP, what High Pressure???

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

Nice chart SP. Would be great if that HP shown on the other models would just sod off to Greenland! How well does GEM verify, any idea?

[Snowplough33]

Morning people. Ditto forecast for here too: Temp 5.2c Dew point 5.2c and wind NE with horrible drizzle, snizzle and mizzle! Yuk!!!

Nice chart SP. Would be great if that HP shown on the other models would just sod off to Greenland! How well does GEM verify, any idea?

Not really sure, its certainly referred to as a lesser model, and the 3 "big" models are going for this at the moment, but the models could easily flip in the next run or two. God , its been raining here for about 36 hrs I think. Hidious.

[Guest]

Not really sure, its certainly referred to as a lesser model, and the 3 "big" models are going for this at the moment, but the models could easily flip in the next run or two. God , its been raining here for about 36 hrs I think. Hidious.

I wonder if there was such a thing as an Inuit Regional thread that they would post: "it's been snowing for about 36 hours I think. Hideous." :rofl: There must be at least one person somewhere in the world thinking that exact thing right now, Philistine! :lol:

As for what the models show, I seem to remember the models in December all went for a different set-up than that which eventually evolved. Even if the HP does end up over us it may well retrogress to Greenland and then hey-presto, a very cold northerly with all sorts of possibilities in the flow.

[Snowplough33]

I wonder if there was such a thing as an Inuit Regional thread that they would post: "it's been snowing for about 36 hours I think. Hideous." There must be at least one person somewhere in the world thinking that exact thing right now, Philistine!

As for what the models show, I seem to remember the models in December all went for a different set-up than that which eventually evolved. Even if the HP does end up over us it may well retrogress to Greenland and then hey-presto, a very cold northerly with all sorts of possibilities in the flow.

Firstly.......I was also dreaming of how much snow would have fallen had it been cold

Secondly.......I only got on this bus as that last cold spell developed, but was there not endless talk of no ppn right up till last minute..........then we got buried. Remember the very first outbreak from the ENE......nothing forecast

Belt up.......GSF has begun

Edited February 6, 2010 by Snowplough33

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not really sure, its certainly referred to as a lesser model, and the 3 "big" models are going for this at the moment, but the models could easily flip in the next run or two. God , its been raining here for about 36 hrs I think. Hidious.

It is a lesser model in some respects, but in terms of the raw verification it is actually top, something I noticed a few days ago. It has to be considered, but it has GFS-like tendencies to exaggerate. I'm honestly happy with the output - lots of days with flow from the east and uppers around or below -8 http://www.meteociel...M1-72.GIF?06-12 http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?06-12 http://www.meteociel...72-21.GIF?06-06 http://91.121.94.83/...gem-0-72.pngThe GEM is of course the best possible output, but I wouldn't totally rule it out. http://91.121.94.83/...-0-96.png?06-06 The new improved NOGAPS gives it good support, as does the GME http://91.121.94.83/...me-0-108.pngThe ensembles show the operational being a slight outlier in bringing pressure higher than 1020mb in, but as long as the flow remains eastish with uppers around or below -8 convective showers will form. I think perhaps we shouldn't sniff at the outlook for Monday in the slightest http://cirrus.netwea...uktopo.pngThose troughs look promising also.

Something else I'm looking at is the idea that we should compare like-for-like runs e.g. the 6Z to yesterday's 6Z. If this is the case then the 12Zs will be a reasonable upgrade on this morning's runs. Enjoy!LSedit: Similar to yesterday, a real mixed bag here, though the GFS thinks the trough just us, I don't think we'll be able to tell until the NMM shows it.http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100206/06/57/h500slp.png http://cirrus.netwea...1/ukprec.pngThe pressure is about 4mb lower than the 00Z and the pattern is shunted a few hundred miles west, which can only be good http://cirrus.netwea...102/h500slp.png

Edited February 6, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Guest]

Firstly.......I was also dreaming of how much snow would have fallen had it been cold

Secondly.......I only got on this bus as that last cold spell developed, but was there not endless talk of no ppn right up till last minute..........then we got buried. Remember the very first outbreak from the ENE......nothing forecast

Belt up.......GSF has begun

There was a lot of talk of no PPN. Mostly followed by smilies mashing their foreheads into little virtual walls (poor smilie chaps). Then followed by smilies doing little hand dances when the unexpected happened

Maybe I'm being optimistic since this kind of set-up is a "crumbs only" meal from an IMBY point of view. I'm not going to get more than an inch of snow every 2 or 3 days so I'm not losing much if not a lot happens. Perhaps if I was on the cusp of a real dump of snow of 6inches+ per day then I would be getting twitchy at every run showing different prospects (forget the "perhaps", who am I kidding?).

Anyway, I'm off out for the day. The over-zealous model licking in other threads is doing my head in, the weather will be what it will be.

See you all later! :lol: :)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Next Saturday is as good as it gets http://91.121.94.83/...162.png?6Uppers -9 http://91.121.94.83/...g?6Brilliant!Oh, and this little chart will be important in the 48-36 hour range http://expert.weathe...0606.gifAlready sub 0C dewpoints by Sunday evening edit: GP has a new post on the in depth discussion. Very interesting and suggestive of a proper northeasterly blast towards the weekend/start of the next week.LS

Edited February 6, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm