Spring / Summer 2010

[Thundery wintry showers]

August 1990 was a hot dry sunny month only in the east and south- much of Scotland and NW England had a dull muggy sort of month, despite the heatwave at the beginning. July was certainly a warm dry sunny month everywhere though, on a par with July 1989, leading up to that exceptional heatwave.

Talking of which, 1989 was a classic example of a summer with plenty of warm dry sunny weather from May to July, with a return to normality in the N and W during August.

I don't think Summer 1990 really rivals 1995, averaged over the UK as a whole sunshine was 20-30% lower, rainfall twice as high and maximum temperatures 1.5C lower according to Met Office stats. The dull cold wet June in particular made a significant difference, whereas June 1995's dull first half in the east was largely offset by the warm sunny second half and the month as a whole was exceptionally sunny in the west, locally sunnier even than the following August which was a scorcher by any standards.

[damianslaw]

I take both sets of comments into regard. Yes perhaps my memories of summer 1990 are a bit rose tinted, however, much of August 1990 was dry here even if not particularly sunny as the stats show or as warm as summer 95.

Summer 95 onthe otherhand apart from the first half of June was consistently superb.

As for preferences over when I hope our best summer weather occurs, I agree that late May - mid July is when I much prefer the better conditions given the lighter conditions and less chance of hazy skies particularly during early summer when visibility can still be very good. By late July hazy skies often accompany very warm conditions and as August wears on the light quickly diminishes.

Late June can be the best time of time for combined lightness, clear skies and less chance of haze..

As for when our hottest conditions usually occur we tend to have to wait until the period between roughly 15th July and 12th August - late July is very much peak summer.

[Gray-Wolf]

NSIDC tell us that the rapid loss of sea ice parallels the 1980 melt. Do we know what type of a summer we saw in 1980 as my memory is a little jumbled through the 80's ,90's......

[AderynCoch]

NSIDC tell us that the rapid loss of sea ice parallels the 1980 melt. Do we know what type of a summer we saw in 1980 as my memory is a little jumbled through the 80's ,90's......

I wasn't around then, but if the statistics are anything to go by the summer of 1980 was terrible - cool, dull and wet. The period from 18th June to 17th July averaged just 12.9C.

You had to ask, didn't you?

[Stargazer]

According to Trevor Harley's excellent web site the whole of July and August 1980 was cold, dull and wet - with the notable exception of the last week of July which was...warm, dull and wet. Yuk! Certainly not a year when I remember lazing around in the sunshine during the school holidays.

At least the pattern of June so far hasn't been like 1980 (yes, that was wet too)...

[Thundery wintry showers]

June 1980 was an exceptionally thundery month in northern England- 9 thunder days at Newcastle Weather Centre, and Lancaster had six such days. Stats and historic charts suggest a hot humid thundery start, a long dull cold wet spell in the middle, and then a slackening low with frequent showers and thunderstorms from the 21st-26th. In some parts, the wettest June on record.

I get the impression that July and August 1980 contained rather less in the way of excitement for convection/storm lovers while retaining a dull cold wet theme.

Overall when I tried to apply a near equivalent to the Manchester summer index to the UK as a whole from 1961-2009, 1980 came out with the second lowest value after 1985, and considerably lower than any summer in the last two decades.

[Weather-history]

According to Trevor Harley's excellent web site the whole of July and August 1980 was cold, dull and wet - with the notable exception of the last week of July which was...warm, dull and wet.

Actually, August 1980 wasn't cold for the CET. Infact it was pretty close to average overall. The three previous Augusts (1977, 1978 and 1979) were cooler

[SNOW GO]

Can the dry spell last - and a sneak preview of next winter

BBCS PAUL HUDSONS THOUGHTS ON THE REST OF THIS SUMMER +HINTING AT A ANOTHER COLD WINTER?

Paul Hudson | 15:01 UK time, Friday, 18 June 2010

Rainfall across the UK has been well below average so far this year. In fact across the UK it's been the driest January to May since 1964. This is due to the almost complete absence of our usual rain bearing weather systems, which normally bring unsettled weather from the West.

Since December of last year, the atmosphere has been 'blocked', preventing the normal sequence of weather fronts moving across the UK. Instead, high pressure has been dominant, leading to a distinct lask of rainfall.

Although there is no sign that we are about to see a resumption of our more normal mobile pattern of weather anytime soon, it does look as though conditions could become much more unsettled towards the end of next week, meaning potentially much wetter conditions for parts of the UK.

The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting) chart shown below for next saturday indicates low pressure in charge by that time.

Looking even further ahead, I thought the latest forecast temperature charts from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were very interesting.

Note how virtually the whole of Europe through Autumn and next Winter is once more colder than average.

It's a long way off, but it suggests that weather patterns are likely to remain more blocked than normal across Europe. With average solar activity continuing to be weak, coupled with the likelihood of developing La Nina conditions (cooling of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean) later this year, the odds on a cold winter across Europe must once again be higher than normal.

[Gavin P]

Interesting stuff from Paul Hudson. This winter does look like its going to be at least a moderate La Nina. That favours a pretty active Atlantic. Low solar activity and and the SST pattern in the Atlantic probably favours blocking. So the calculation seems to be Active Atlantic + Northern Blocking + -NAO = Trouble?

As far as summer is concerned, a slow, gradual breakdown through July is what I'm thinking could happen. June may well be the best of it for dry, useful weather. July warm, but unsettled?

Edited June 19, 2010 by Gavin P

[Solar Cycles]

Interesting stuff from Paul Hudson. This winter does look like its going to be at least a moderate La Nina. That favours a pretty active Atlantic. Low solar activity and and the SST pattern in the Atlantic probably favours blocking. So the calculation seems to be Active Atlantic + Northern Blocking + -NAO = Trouble?

As far as summer is concerned, a slow, gradual breakdown through July is what I'm thinking could happen. June may well be the best of it for dry, useful weather. July warm, but unsettled?

1947 anyone? Although quite a way off, this winter does look like we could well see some fireworks. It will be interesting to see what the SST's are come September!

[snowlover2009]

Interesting stuff from Paul Hudson. This winter does look like its going to be at least a moderate La Nina. That favours a pretty active Atlantic. Low solar activity and and the SST pattern in the Atlantic probably favours blocking. So the calculation seems to be Active Atlantic + Northern Blocking + -NAO = Trouble?

As far as summer is concerned, a slow, gradual breakdown through July is what I'm thinking could happen. June may well be the best of it for dry, useful weather. July warm, but unsettled?

sounds exciting for winter, the atlantic this year and winter has been pretty quiet indeed but still produced a really cold winter. with all three of these: -nao, northern blocking and active atlantic the coming winter really could be quite remarkable with the trends of cold winters, the weather patterns and what some long range forecasters are predicting. is it possible to still get the coldest and snowiest winter ever, by a long run??? a rerun of1947 would be great, but can it be possible to get even colder and snowier than that in the uk???

Edited June 19, 2010 by snowlover2009

[Ben_Cambs]

sounds exciting for winter, the atlantic this year and winter has been pretty quiet indeed but still produced a really cold winter. with all three of these: -nao, northern blocking and active atlantic the coming winter really could be quite remarkable with the trends of cold winters, the weather patterns and what some long range forecasters are predicting. is it possible to still get the coldest and snowiest winter ever, by a long run??? a rerun of1947 would be great, but can it be possible to get even colder and snowier than that in the uk???

I reckon it could be possible. Recently I've been familarising myself with the synoptics of 1947 in particular but December 1946 and the first half of January 1947 was a fair mix, Atlantic depressions tracked just to the north of the UK, some times it was HP dominated and there was one or two much colder spells, but it was not until around the 20th January until the severe cold spells began to hit. February 1947 must hold the snowiest month nationally in history, some places recorded 26 days of snowfall under the Easterly winds. This continued into the first third of March too. Of course it would take something hugely special to beat this month. It would take perfect synoptics all-winter round though to beat 1947 as a whole though.

I suppose what Gavin in particular mentioned with the quite active Atlantic due to a weak-moderate La Nina (quite likely) could be represented by this chart:

I must admit I have a really good feeling about next winter, but before then lets have some nice hot summery weather with plenty of thunderstorms!

Edited June 19, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

1947 anyone?

1740 is the closest analogue avaliable I think

[Weather-history]

, but before then lets have some nice hot summery weather with plenty of thunderstorms!

One notable feature about this year so far has been the lack of thunder in this neck of woods. Not heard a single rumble of thunder and we are virtually half way through the year.

[SteveB]

One notable feature about this year so far has been the lack of thunder in this neck of woods. Not heard a single rumble of thunder and we are virtually half way through the year.

Nothing her either, thunder storms have been diminishing over the last few years anyway. 2006 was the last year with good storms in this neck of the woods.

[AderynCoch]

One notable feature about this year so far has been the lack of thunder in this neck of woods. Not heard a single rumble of thunder and we are virtually half way through the year.

In general, the past three years have seen a dearth of thundery activity round here: the only events which I can recall are a humdinger of a storm in May 2008 (which caused flash flooding) and an unusual thundersnow event just before Christmas 2009 (complete with pink/purple flashes and deafening bangs). Otherwise, I've missed out on a number of events. The years leading up to 2006 were highly active in comparison.

[Solar Cycles]

In general, the past three years have seen a dearth of thundery activity round here: the only events which I can recall are a humdinger of a storm in May 2008 (which caused flash flooding) and an unusual thundersnow event just before Christmas 2009 (complete with pink/purple flashes and deafening bangs). Otherwise, I've missed out on a number of events. The years leading up to 2006 were highly active in comparison.

I wonder if there is a correlation between Thunderstorms and solar activity. Probably just a coincidence, but it does seem to tie in with continuing low solar activity!

Apparently there as been some research into this, very patchy from what I can see. Does anyone have any up to date info on this?

Mods I've started a thread regarding this over on the Climate forum, feel free to delete as it is off topic!

Edited June 21, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[Gavin P]

I would guess its just an indication that we've been through three generlly cool, zonal summers. Zonal summers don't generally see an abundence of thunderstorms. Whether that is related to solar minimum might be a more pertinant question?

Edited June 21, 2010 by Gavin P

[AderynCoch]

I would guess its just an indication that we've been through three generlly cool, zonal summers. Zonal summers don't generally see an abundence of thunderstorms.

Good point, but the thing is despite the lact of thundery activity here I've still seen numerous reports of impressive activity from elsewhere. The very warm and humid conditions at the beginning of July last year spring to mind - not a single rumble of thunder perceived by my ears despite constant forecasts and reports (and even some rain thrown in). I think I've just been missing the bullet more often than not.

Edited June 21, 2010 by AderynCoch

[johnholmes]

quite why several folk are discussing the coming winter in this thread, interesting as the posts are, is beyond me-PLEASE read the title, if you wish to start an equally fascinating discussion about next winter, fine, otherwise can we stay on topic please?

[Gavin P]

John, it was because of THIS post at the end of the last page:

Can the dry spell last - and a sneak preview of next winter

BBCS PAUL HUDSONS THOUGHTS ON THE REST OF THIS SUMMER +HINTING AT A ANOTHER COLD WINTER?

Paul Hudson | 15:01 UK time, Friday, 18 June 2010

Rainfall across the UK has been well below average so far this year. In fact across the UK it's been the driest January to May since 1964. This is due to the almost complete absence of our usual rain bearing weather systems, which normally bring unsettled weather from the West.

Since December of last year, the atmosphere has been 'blocked', preventing the normal sequence of weather fronts moving across the UK. Instead, high pressure has been dominant, leading to a distinct lask of rainfall.

Although there is no sign that we are about to see a resumption of our more normal mobile pattern of weather anytime soon, it does look as though conditions could become much more unsettled towards the end of next week, meaning potentially much wetter conditions for parts of the UK.

The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting) chart shown below for next saturday indicates low pressure in charge by that time.

Looking even further ahead, I thought the latest forecast temperature charts from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were very interesting.

Note how virtually the whole of Europe through Autumn and next Winter is once more colder than average.

It's a long way off, but it suggests that weather patterns are likely to remain more blocked than normal across Europe. With average solar activity continuing to be weak, coupled with the likelihood of developing La Nina conditions (cooling of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean) later this year, the odds on a cold winter across Europe must once again be higher than normal.

Which was directly lifted from Paul Hudson's BBC blog;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/06/can-the-dry-spell-last-and-a-s.shtml

Edited June 21, 2010 by Gavin P

[Milhouse]

Interesting to see how this coming Saturday was looking a couple of days ago. The very warm/hot spell at the weekend is very much a recent development.

[Costa Del Fal]

Despite some chat in the Model threads of Low pressure making inroads eventually and La Nina starting to take some affect the BBC Monthly forecasts suggest otherwise with a very dry outlook for the next month with lots of sunshine and warmth with any breakdown being temporary and systems will have lost most of their intensity by the time they reach us and even this only affecting the North generally.

Did i just hear the gardens crying out for water?

[Gavin P]

I wonder if that VERY bullish BBC monthly outlook will be seen as the moment this summer started to head towards the buffers?

[Costa Del Fal]

I wonder if that VERY bullish BBC monthly outlook will be seen as the moment this summer started to head towards the buffers?

Lol i hope not. Its been a great start to summer, so it will be a real shame to see it down the pan! However, a couple of weeks ago this time period around now was looking wet and horrible on the GFS im sure and look what weve ended up with! Thank God im in Spain for half of July so if the weather does turn for the worse, i can continue to see the better stuff over there...hopefully.

Looking at tonights ECMWF, despite some attempts at Low pressure coming in, the High pressure is not far away at all. Could be a month where it is very N/S split perhaps. C and S areas often fine and warm. N areas sometimes wetter and cooler.